Election News

Ten Candidates Have Qualified for Next Week's Democratic Debate

Ten Democrats have qualified for the 5th Democratic debate, to be held on November 20 in Atlanta. The event will be hosted by MSNBC and The Washington Post and broadcast live from 9:00 PM to 11:00 PM Eastern Time. 

Those making the stage include former Vice President Joe Biden; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker; South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg; Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard; California Sen. Kamala Harris; Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar; Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders; businessman Tom Steyer; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren; and entrepreneur Andrew Yang. 

Update:  The candidates will appear in this order, from left to right on stage:  Booker, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Sanders, Harris, Yang and Steyer.

Mark Sanford Suspends Presidential Campaign

Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's brief challenge to President Trump has ended.  Sanford, who had announced his campaign for the GOP nomination in early September, said Tuesday that he was suspending that effort

Sanford was averaging less than 2% in limited national polling.  Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld and former U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh remain in the race, but are also seeing little traction against an incumbent president who enjoys broad support within the Republican party.

Former Gov. Deval Patrick Considering Presidential Bid

Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is reportedly considering a late entry into the 2020 Democratic field. The news comes days after former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg filed to run in Alabama's March primary.  Both individuals had previously decided against running in 2020, but both apparently see an opening despite the historically large number of candidates already in the race.

The filing deadline for New Hampshire's February 11 first-in-the-nation primary is this Friday. Given the proximity to his state, it would seem likely that Patrick would register for this contest if he is serious about jumping in to the race.

GOP Rep. Peter King of New York Will Retire; District Seen as Competitive in 2020

Rep. Peter King of New York announced he will not seek re-election in 2020. He is in his 14th term, representing the state's 2nd district, which covers parts of the south shore of Long Island.  King is one of only two GOP representatives in downstate New York; Lee Zeldin's 1st district covers the remainder of Long island to the east.

In a statement posted to Facebook, King said he wanted to spend more time with his family. It is notable that his 2018 election win was by just 6 points; he had never previously won re-election by fewer than 12 points. The district voted for Donald Trump by 9 points in 2016, after preferring Barack Obama by 5 points in 2012. Given the loss of incumbency and the overall political climate, the district is expected to be more closely-contested in 2020. Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed its rating from Likely to Leans Republican, with a hint that it could be a toss-up later on.  We expect other forecasters to update their ratings earlier this week.

Michael Bloomberg Expected to File Paperwork for Alabama Primary

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is expected to file paperwork to qualify for the Alabama Democratic primary in advance of the state's Friday deadline.  The filing doesn't mean he is going to jump into the race, but it is clearly under serious consideration. 

Bloomberg's spokesman Howard Wolfson said "We now need to finish the job and ensure that Trump is defeated — but Mike is increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well positioned to do that". He went on to say that "If Mike runs he would offer a new choice to Democrats built on a unique record running America’s biggest city, building a business from scratch and taking on some of America’s toughest challenges as a high-impact philanthropist.”

Democratic Rep. Pete Visclosky of Indiana to Retire

Rep. Pete Visclosky of Indiana announced his retirement Wednesday. Now in his 18th term, he's the third most senior Democrat in the U.S. House. Visclosky chairs the defense appropriations panel, overseeing a budget of over $700 billion.

Visclosky represents Indiana's first district, a fairly safe Democratic district in the northwestern part of the state, including Gary. Hillary Clinton won this district by about 13 points in 2016.

Democrats Win Virginia General Assembly; Will Control Redistricting

Democrats took control of Virginia's General Assembly in Tuesday's elections, flipping both the Senate and the House of Delegates. This gives the party its first trifecta* since 1993Democrats erased a two-seat GOP edge in both chambers, 

In addition to controlling all levers of state government, the win gives Democrats control over the redistricting process after the 2020 Census. For more on this, see this article on the importance of Tuesday's General Assembly elections in Virginia.

Democrats Flip Kentucky Governor; GOP Holds Mississippi

There was a split-decision in the two gubernatorial races contested on Tuesday.

Kentucky Governor 

Unpopular Republican Gov. Matt Bevin lost his bid for a 2nd term to his Democratic opponent, Attorney General Andy Beshear. Bevin has thus far refused to concede the closely-contested race, which was only decided by about 5,000 votes.

Election Day 2019: Overview and Live Results

Election Day 2019 has us following two competitive gubernatorial races as well as elections that will decide control of the General Assembly in Virginia.  

Kentucky Governor 

Republican Gov. Matt Bevin is seeking a 2nd term in this deep red state. Should be nothing to see here, yet the race is a toss-up as Bevin has managed to become the most unpopular governor in the country over his four years in office. He narrowly won a competitive primary over state representative Robert Goforth. One of the other candidates in that primary has endorsed Bevin's opponent, Democratic Attorney General Andy Beshear.  That said, he does have a big supporter in his corner - President Trump held a rally for Bevin in Lexington Monday night.

The Importance of Tuesday's General Assembly Elections in Virginia

This article is the first written for us by Seth Moskowitz, who will be contributing to 270toWin during the 2020 election.

On Tuesday, Virginia voters will elect the state legislature responsible for drawing state and congressional district lines following the 2020 Census, a task that will define the state’s political landscape for a decade.  If Democrats can flip both chambers of Virginia’s General Assembly, the party will have unilateral power over this crucial process. The election has attracted unusual attention for a state legislative contest, bringing in over $52 million in campaign donations and attracting national political figures including Vice President Mike Pence, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Senator Bernie Sanders to headline campaign events.

The Virginia election kicks off Democrats' 2019 and 2020 plan to claw back from the 958 state legislative seat deficit the party incurred during the Obama presidency. These down-ballot net losses gave Republicans the power to draw 193 congressional districts following the 2010 Census; Democrats had control over just 44. This cemented a Republican bias in the House of Representatives as well as in many state legislatures. Democrats are determined to take this power back from the GOP. Virginia presents their first chance at flipping a closely-divided state legislative body that will be in power following the 2020 Census. Given that Democrats already hold the Governorship, which is not up for election until 2021, if the party can win majorities in both legislative chambers, it will have control over redistricting.