2024 Presidential Election Forecasts
These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2024 Presidential forecast.
2024 President: Consensus Electoral Map
This map tracks the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters.
Only seats rated safe by a large majority of forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of red or blue.
As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
July 23: Oregon moves from Safe to Likely Democratic.
2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls
This map tracks a Harris-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. At this point, state-level polling is limited, but that will change in the next couple weeks. Where polling is not yet available, the margin associated with Biden-Trump polls, prior to the president's withdrawal from the race, is used.
States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.
Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As such, they may be of limited predictive value until the election gets much closer.
Crystal Ball 2024 Electoral College Ratings
The current electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Larry Sabato and the team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
July 23: No immediate changes as President Biden withdraws and VP Kamala Harris becomes the likely nominee. Read the analysis >>
Cook Political Report 2024 Electoral College Ratings
The current electoral college ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Cook Political Report. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
July 9: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada move from Toss-up to Leans Republican; Minnesota, NE-02, and New Hampshire move from Likely to Leans Democratic. Read the analysis ($)
Inside Elections 2024 Presidential Ratings
The current ratings for the 2024 presidential election from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
May 9: Nevada moves from Tilts Democratic to Toss-up.
538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election
This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp. The 538 forecast was suspended on July 21 after Biden's withdrawal. While we continue to 'update' it, there won't be any change until the site resumes its model.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (98%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
JHK Forecasts: 2024 Presidential Election
Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast. This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.
Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2024 election simulator.
This forecast is on hold after Biden's withdrawal on July 21. While we'll continue to 'update' the map, there won't be any changes until the underlying model is reactivated.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Fox News 2024 Presidential Power Rankings
The 2024 Presidential Power Rankings from Fox News. The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Note that as a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
July 22: No immediate changes after President Biden's withdrawal from the race. Read the analysis >
Elections Daily 2024 President Ratings
The current Elections Daily ratings for the 2024 presidential election. Use this map to create and share your own forecast.
July 16: Maine, Minnesota, NE-02, New Hampshire move from Likely to Leans Democratic; Nevada Toss-up to Leans Republican; New Mexico and Virginia Safe to Likely Democratic; Texas Leans to Likely Republican. Read the analysis >
Split Ticket 2024 President Ratings
The current Split Ticket ratings for the 2024 presidential election. Use this map to create and share your own forecast.
Read the analysis behind these ratings.
May 18: Alaska, Maine-2, Nebraska-1, and Ohio move from Likely to Safe Republican; Georgia and North Carolina Toss-up to Leans Republican; Michigan and Nevada Leans Democratic to Toss-up.
cnalysis 2024 Presidential Ratings
The current 2024 presidential forecast from cnalysis. The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
Note that as a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
July 16: Alaska, Florida, and ME-02 move from Likely to Safe R; Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada Tilt to Lean R; Minnesota Likely to Lean D; NE-02 Lean to Tilt D; North Carolina Lean to Likely R.
U.S. News 2024 Presidential Ratings
The current 2024 presidential election ratings from Louis Jacobson for U.S. News. Jacobson is the chief correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024.
As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.
The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
June 18: Maine moves from Likely to Safe Democratic; Minnesota and Virginia Likely to Leans Democratic; New Mexico Safe to Likely Democratic; Ohio Likely to Safe Republican. Read the analysis >
Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election Markets
This is an electoral map based on the Polymarket prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. It will be updated every four hours.
Unless there is an exact tie, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
