Election News

March 28 Congressional Redistricting Update

As Maryland returns to the list after a court ruling, five states have yet to complete congressional redistricting. The Legislature in Florida, Louisiana, and New Hampshire have each passed redistricting bills. However, they have each run into a roadblock from the governor's office.

In Missouri, Republican infighting in the state Senate was finally overcome late last week, with a compromise map emerging. That gets the process going again. With a Tuesday deadline for candidate filing, it is possible the state House acts quickly to get the bill to the governor's desk.

State (Districts) Comments
Florida (28) The state is gaining a district. No recent activity. The GOP-controlled Legislature has passed an unusual plan that includes both 'primary' and 'secondary' maps. The major difference is in the treatment of District 5, a Black Opportunity district that stretches across much of the northern part of the state. Gov. Ron DeSantis wants this district made more compact, effectively eliminating the only Democratic-held district north of the Orlando area. The primary map somewhat accedes to this by consolidating the district around Jacksonville. However, it doesn't go as far as DeSantis wants; he has threatened a veto. The secondary map maintains the general shape of District 5 - although makes it slightly less 'blue'. It is intended as a replacement should the primary map be invalidated by the courts as a violation of the Voting Rights Act.
Louisiana (6) On March 9, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) vetoed the congressional map approved by the Republican-led Legislature. That map largely maintained the status quo. Democrats, led by Edwards, favor the addition of a second majority-minority district given that Blacks now comprise about 33% of the state's population. If the Legislature attempts to override, a 2/3 vote in each chamber is required.
Maryland (8) On March 25, a judge invalidated Maryland's previously enacted map, calling it a Democratic gerrymander in violation of the state Constitution. Overall, the map maintained the 7-1 Democratic edge. However, it shifted the partisan composition of the sole GOP-held seat significantly to the left, potentially putting it into play. 
Missouri (8) A deadlock in the Republican-controlled Missouri Senate was finally broken, and that chamber passed a map on March 24. The map maintains the current 6-2 GOP edge. It solidifies the GOP hold on District 2, the only somewhat competitive district in the state in recent cycles. Some conservatives in the Senate had pushed for a more aggressive map that would have 'cracked' Kansas City, giving the GOP a 7-1 edge. The Senate map also included an emergency clause that enables the new map to be effective as soon as it is signed into law - and thus usable for the August 2 primary. The state House is expected to take up the Senate bill during the week of March 28. 
New Hampshire (2) Gov. Chris Sununu (R) will veto the congressional map sent to him by the Republican-controlled Legislature. On March 22, he submitted his own plan to the leaders of both legislative chambers. Sununu favors a plan that keeps both districts competitive, while the map approved by the legislature makes each of the state's two districts more partisan. It made District 1 more favorable for a GOP pick-up; the party has not won a U.S. House seat since 2014.

Live Results: Louisiana State House All-Party Primary

Louisiana State House District 101

Republicans hold a large majority in the 105 seat Louisiana State House. There are 68 Republicans, 33 Democrats and three independents. 

Members serve four-year terms. The next regularly scheduled elections will be in November, 2023. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

District 101 is located in East Baton Rouge Parish. Democrat Ted James resigned in January after being appointed regional administrator at The Small Business Administration.

James was unopposed in 2019. No Republican has contested the seat over the past decade; that will not change in this special election.

There are two Democrats and one independent on the ballot. James has endorsed Democrat Vanessa LaFleur.

In Louisiana, all candidates compete on a single primary ballot. If one candidate gets a majority of the vote, they are elected. If not, the top two finishers meet in a runoff. If necessary, the runoff for this race will be on Saturday, April 30.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

Upcoming

  • March 29
    • South Carolina State Senate District 31 Special Election
  • April 5
    • California U.S. House District 22 Special Primary
    • California State Assembly Districts 11, 62, and 80 Special Primaries
    • Georgia State House District 45 Special Election
      • Runoff May 3 (if necessary)
    • Milwaukee Mayor Special Election
    • Pennsylvania State House Districts 19, 24, and 116 Special Elections
  • April 7
    • New York State Assembly District 20 Special Election
  • April 19
    • California State Assembly District 17 Special Election
  • May 3
    • Indiana Primary
    • Ohio Primary (date may change due to litigation)
    • Michigan State House Districts 15, 36, 43, and 74 Special Elections

Maryland Congressional Map Invalidated by Court

A judge in the Maryland Court of Appeals has invalidated the state's recently-enacted congressional map, labeling it a Democratic gerrymander in violation of the state's Constitution. The court gave the General Assembly until March 30 to draw a new map and scheduled a hearing for April 1.

The state may appeal the ruling.

Republican Gov. Larry Hogan welcomed the ruling. In December, Hogan vetoed the map sent to him by the Assembly. His veto was overridden and litigation ensued.

The invalidated map (shown below with consensus ratings) maintained seven safely Democratic seats, while shifting the only GOP-held seat significantly to the left.

The Maryland primary is scheduled for July 19, having recently been pushed back from late June.

Pending resolution, Maryland's district shapes have been removed from the 2022 House Interactive Map.

 

Live Results: New York and South Carolina Legislative Special Elections

This week we're following one special general election to fill a vacancy in the New York State Assembly. There is also a GOP primary for a State House vacancy in South Carolina.

New York State Assembly District 43

Democrats hold a large majority in the New York State Assembly. The party controls 105 seats. There are 42 Republicans, one Independence Party member and two vacancies. The District 20 vacancy will be filled by special election on April 7.

Members serve two-year terms. The next regularly scheduled elections will be in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

District 43 is located in Brooklyn. Democrat Diana Richardson resigned in early February after being appointed deputy borough president. This is a deep blue district; Richardson was reelected by an 89% to 11% margin in 2020. 

There are three candidates on the ballot. The Republican nominee is Mesidor Azor. Given the lean of the district, the main competition is likely between the other two candidates. Those are Democrat Brian Cunningham and Jelanie Deshong of the Working Families Party. Both have received endorsements from local political leaders.

Richardson, the prior incumbent, originally won office in a 2015 special election running only on the Working Families ballot line. However, there was no separate Democratic entrant in that election.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

South Carolina State House District 18 (Primary)

Republicans hold 79 of 124 seats in the South Carolina State House. Democrats control 43. There are two vacancies. The District 97 vacancy will be filled in a May 17 special election.

Members serve two-year terms. The next regularly scheduled elections will be in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

District 18 is located in the northwestern part of the state. Republican Tommy Stringer resigned in January, citing health considerations. He had been in the state House since 2006. Stringer was elected to his final term in 2020, winning 74% to 26%.

Several candidates are competing for the Republican nomination in Tuesday's primary. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, a top-two runoff will be held on April 5.

As no Democrats filed to run for this seat, the ultimate winner of the Republican primary will be the only name on the ballot for the May 24 general special election. 

Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.

Upcoming

  • March 26
    • Louisiana State House District 101 Special Primary
  • March 29
    • South Carolina State Senate District 31 Special Election
  • April 5
    • California U.S. House District 22 Special Primary
    • California State Assembly Districts 11, 62, and 80 Special Primaries
    • Georgia State House District 45 Special Election
    • Milwaukee Mayor Special Election
    • Pennsylvania State House Districts 19, 24, and 116 Special Elections
  • April 7
    • New York State Assembly District 20 Special Election
  • April 19
    • California State Assembly District 17 Special Election
  • May 3
    • Indiana Primary
    • Ohio Primary (date may change due to litigation)
    • Michigan State House Districts 15, 36, 43, and 74 Special Elections

Alaska Republican Don Young, Dean of the House, is Dead

Alaska Republican Don Young, the dean of the U.S. House, has died. He was 88. Seated in 1973, after winning a special election, he was serving in his 25th term. 

Democrats now hold 222 seats vs. 210 for Republicans. There are three vacancies. In addition to the at-large Alaska district, CA-22 and MN-01, also last held by Republicans, are vacant.  

The most senior House members are now Hal Rogers (R, KY-05) and Chris Smith (R, NJ-04). They were both elected in 1980.

Sununu to Veto New Hampshire Redistricting Plan Approved by Legislature

The New Hampshire state Senate has approved - with no changes - a redistricting plan previously approved by the state House. The plan makes each of the state's two districts more partisan. District 1 becomes more favorable for a GOP pickup; the party has not won a U.S. House seat here since 2014.

Although both legislative chambers are Republican-controlled, fellow GOP Gov. Chris Sununu says he will veto the plan. He had previously asked the Senate to modify the House map to make both districts more competitive.

The Remaining States

Including New Hampshire, four states, with 44 total districts, have not completed redistricting.  Florida's 28 districts account for almost 2/3 of the total.

It is possible that Ohio, with 15 districts, will be added back to this list in the days ahead. After the originally-enacted plan was thrown out by the State Supreme Court in January, the Redistricting Commission approved a new map on March 2. 

According to FiveThirtyEight, the new plan "is barely fairer than the map that was struck down." On March 16, the Court invalidated new redistricting plans for the state House and Senate, perhaps foreshadowing an upcoming ruling on the congressional plan. 

State (Districts) Comments
Florida (28) The state is gaining a district. The GOP-controlled Legislature passed an unusual plan that includes both 'primary' and 'secondary' maps, with the secondary map included as back-up should a court invalidate the primary map. The major difference is in the treatment of District 5, a Black Opportunity district that stretches across much of the northern part of the state. Gov. Ron DeSantis wants this district made more compact, effectively eliminating the only Democratic-held district north of the Orlando area. The primary map somewhat accedes to this by consolidating the district around Jacksonville. However, it doesn't go as far as DeSantis wants; he has said he will veto the plan after it reaches his desk. The Legislature can override with a 2/3 vote. Failing that, the state courts could end up drawing the final map. There is also a federal lawsuit that has been filed.
Louisiana (6) Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) vetoed the map approved by the Republican-led Legislature. An override effort is expected; a 2/3 vote in each chamber is required. The rejected plan largely maintained the status quo including, notably, a single majority-Black district.  Democrats, including Edwards, favor the addition of a second majority minority district given that Blacks now comprise about 33% of the state's population.
Missouri (8) The Missouri Senate has not taken action on a map, passed by the state House, that largely maintains the status quo 6-2 Republican edge. Some conservatives in the Senate have pushed for a more aggressive map that would 'crack' Kansas City. This would likely yield a 7-1 map, as that scenario would make it much more difficult for Democrat Emanuel Cleaver to hold his seat. On March 11, a voter group filed a petition that requests the courts to step in and draw the map.
New Hampshire (2) See discussion at beginning of article.

Maryland Primary Pushed Back Three Weeks

The Maryland Court of Appeals has moved the state's 2022 primary back three weeks from June 28 to July 19. The Court also moved the state's candidate filing deadline to April 15. 

The 2022 Election Calendar has been updated with this change.

 

Results of Fox News Polls for GOP Primaries in Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania

Late Tuesday, Fox News released the results of several polls conducted for the Republican primaries for Senate and Governor in Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. 

Georgia U.S. Senate

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is seeking reelection to a full six-year term after winning a special election runoff in January, 2021 against Republican Kelly Loeffler, who was appointed to the seat following the resignation of Johnny Isakson at the end of 2019. 

Herschel Walker looks well on his way to securing the GOP nomination in the state's May 24th primary. The poll showed him receiving 66% of the vote, well above the 50% needed to avoid a runoff. None of Walker's challengers had more than single digit support. 

The consensus general election rating is Toss-up.

Georgia Governor

Incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp faces a primary challenge from Trump-endorsed former Sen. David Perdue. The poll found Kemp leading Perdue by a 50% to 39% margin.

The winner is expected to face Democrat Stacey Abrams in November. Abrams is making her second run; she lost to Kemp by 1.4% in 2018.

The consensus general election rating is Toss-up.

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate

Incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey is retiring, creating an open nomination fight in both parties. On the Republican side, the poll finds hedge fund manager David McCormick leading with 24%, followed by Dr. Mehmet Oz at 15%. Three other candidates have between 5% and 10%. Nearly a third of respondents were still undecided about their vote in the state's May 17 primary.

The Democratic primary is also competitive. Notables include Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb (PA-17), and state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta.

The consensus general election rating is Toss-up.

Pennsylvania Governor

Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is termed-out, creating an open primary for both parties. The poll finds a highly competitive Republican race, with four candidates between 10% and 20% support. These include former U.S. Rep. Lou Barletta (19%), state Sen. Doug Mastriano (18%), former county Councilman Dave White (14%), and U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain (11%). As in the Senate, race, 'Undecided' was the most popular response, here at 25%.

State Attorney General Josh Shapiro is expected to be the Democratic nominee.

The consensus general election rating is Toss-up.

Ohio Senator

Incumbent Republican Sen. Rob Portman is retiring; a crowded field is hoping to succeed him. The poll found businessman Mike Gibbons at 22% with former state Treasurer Josh Mandel at 20%, well within the poll's 4% margin of error. Author J.D. Vance was next with 11%, followed by former state GOP Chair Jane Timken (9%), and state Senator Matt Dolan (7%).

The likely Democratic nominee is U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-13).

The consensus general election rating is Likely Republican.

Ohio Governor

The poll found incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine in a strong position to be renominated for a second term. DeWine had 50% support in the poll. Farmer Joe Blystone and former U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci were well back at about 20% each.

Two former mayors - John Cranley (Cincinnati) and Nan Whaley (Dayton) are seeking the Democratic nomination in the state's primary, currently scheduled for May 3. It is possible that date will shift if the Ohio Supreme Court invalidates the enacted congressional map.

The consensus general election rating is Likely Republican.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Redistricting Update: Four States Remain; Ohio and Wisconsin Added to Interactive Map

Congressional redistricting was completed last week in Ohio and Wisconsin. The 2022 House Interactive Map has been updated with shapes for the 23 total districts in these two states. 

This is the second plan enacted in Ohio; the first was thrown out by the State Supreme Court in January. The Court ruled that the map was a Republican gerrymander in violation of the state's Constitution. According to FiveThirtyEight, the new plan "is barely fairer than the map that was struck down." The Court may well invalidate this map as well.

house consensus forecast march 8, 2022

The Remaining States

90% of the 435 congressional districts are set, assuming none of the maps in litigation are invalidated. Four states, with 44 total districts, have not completed redistricting.  Florida's 28 districts account for almost 2/3 of the total.

State (Districts) Comments
Florida (28) The state is gaining a district. The GOP-controlled Legislature has passed an unusual plan that includes both 'primary' and 'secondary' maps. The major difference is in the treatment of District 5, a Black Opportunity district that stretches across much of the northern part of the state. Gov. Ron DeSantis wants this district made more compact, effectively eliminating the only Democratic-held district north of the Orlando area. The primary map somewhat accedes to this by consolidating the district around Jacksonville. However, it doesn't go as far as DeSantis wants; he has threatened a veto. The secondary map maintains the general shape of District 5 - although makes it slightly less 'blue'. It is intended as a replacement should the primary map be invalidated by the courts as a violation of the Voting Rights Act.
Louisiana (6) Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) has until March 14 to veto the map approved by the Republican-led Legislature. If he vetoes, a 2/3 vote in each chamber would be required to override. The new plan largely maintains the status quo including, notably, a single majority-Black district.  Democrats, including Edwards, favor the addition of a second majority-minority district given that Blacks now comprise about 33% of the state's population.
Missouri (8) The Missouri Senate has tabledmap, passed by the state House, that largely maintains the status quo 6-2 Republican edge. Some conservatives in the Senate have pushed for a more aggressive map that would 'crack' Kansas City. This would likely yield a 7-1 map, as that scenario would make it much more difficult for Democrat Emanuel Cleaver to hold his seat.
New Hampshire (2) The Republican-controlled state House approved a map that would make District 1 more favorable for the party. On March 7, a Senate committee approved the plan, making no changes. If the full Senate votes in favor, it will head to GOP Gov. Chris Sununu's desk. He had previously asked the Senate to modify the House map to make both districts more competitive. However, he has not threatened a veto if they did not.

Live Results: Florida and South Carolina Legislative Special Elections

This week we're following one special general election in each branch of the Florida Legislature. There is also a GOP primary for a vacancy in South Carolina.

Special General Elections

Incumbents in both these Southeastern Florida districts were unsuccessful in their quest for the Democratic nomination in the then-vacant 20th congressional district seat. Each had to give up the seat under the state's 'resign to run' law; the departures took place in early January.

Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.

Florida State Senate District 33

Republicans hold a 24-15 edge over Democrats in the Florida State Senate. The single vacancy will be filled Tuesday. The next regularly scheduled elections will be in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

District 33 hasn't been contested by the GOP since 2012, although the party does have a candidate, Joseph Carter, in this special election. The Democratic nominee is Rosalind Osgood, who advanced from the January 11 primary.

Florida State House District 88

Republicans hold a large 78-41 advantage over Democrats in the Florida State House. The single vacancy will be filled Tuesday. The next regularly scheduled elections will be in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

In District 88, Democrat Omari Hardy was reelected by 74% to 26% over his Republican challenger in 2020. There was no GOP primary as Guarina Torres was the only qualifier. The Democratic nominee is Jervonte Edmonds, who advanced from the January 11 primary.  

Special Primary Election

South Carolina State House District 97

Republicans hold 80 of 124 seats in the South Carolina State House. Democrats control 43; there is one vacancy in District 97. The next regularly scheduled elections will be in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

District 97 is located northwest of Charleston. Republican Mandy Kimmons resigned in December to focus on her legal practice. Kimmons was first elected in 2018, when she flipped the district, defeating incumbent Democrat Patsy Knight by 54% to 46%. Her margin of victory widened to 62%-38% in 2020.

Candace Jennings and Robby Robbins are competing for the Republican nomination in Tuesday's primary. The winner will meet Democratic nominee ReZsaun Lewis in the May 17 special general election.

Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.

Upcoming

  • March 22
    • New York State Assembly District 43 Special Election
    • South Carolina State House District 18 Special Primary
  • March 26
    • Louisiana State House District 101 Special Primary
  • March 29
    • South Carolina State Senate District 31 Special Election
  • April 5
    • California U.S. House District 22 Special Primary
    • California State Assembly Districts 11, 62, and 80 Special Primaries
    • Georgia State House District 45 Special Election
    • Milwaukee Mayor Special Election
    • Pennsylvania State House Districts 19, 24, and 116 Special Elections
  • April 7
    • New York State Assembly District 20 Special Election
  • April 19
    • California State Assembly District 17 Special Election