Election News

Live Results: Several State Legislative Elections to Close out the Year

The 2021 election calendar wraps up Tuesday with two general and two primary state legislative special elections. While all four of the states have completed legislative redistricting, these elections will be contested under the existing boundaries.

Special General Elections

Connecticut State House District 116

The 151 member Connecticut House of Representatives is comprised of 95 Democrats and 54 Republicans. Members serve two-year terms. The next scheduled elections are in in 2022. These will be conducted using redistricted boundaries.

There are vacancies in Districts 116 and 144. The special election for Stamford-area District 144 will take place on January 25.

District 116 is located just southwest of New Haven. It was previously represented by Democrat Michael DiMassa, who resigned in October after being indicted. He was serving his third term. 

Nominees for special elections in Connecticut are selected by the parties. Democrats nominated Trenee McGee. The Republican nominee is Richard DePalma, who also represented the party in the 2016 and 2018 elections here. Those races were not competitive; DiMassa won by a nearly 50% margin both times. Independent Portia Bias is also on the ballot.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time (ET).

Iowa State Senate District 1

Republicans hold a 31-18 edge over Democrats in the 50-person Iowa State Senate. Members serve staggered four year terms; districts with even numbers were contested in 2020 and those with odd numbers scheduled for 2022. As a result of redistricting, it is possible that one or more of the even-numbered districts, known as "holdover senatorial districts" will also be on the ballot. That remains to be determined. If any of those elections are needed, they will be for a shortened two-year term. 

District 1 covers a largely rural area in the northwest corner of the state. It has been vacant since October, when Republican Zach Whiting resigned to take a job in Texas. Whiting was in his first term; he ran unopposed in 2018. 

Nominees for special elections in Iowa are selected by the parties. The Republicans chose Dave Rowley; the Democratic nominee is Mark Lemke.

Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.

Special Primary Elections

Arkansas State Senate District 7

Republicans hold a lopsided 26-7 margin over Democrats in the 35-person Arkansas State Senate. Term length is four years, except two years for the election that precedes a redistricting - as was the case in 2020. The 2022 elections will be contested using redistricted boundaries. Those will be for four years terms, as will the ones in 2026. 

District 7 is in the northwest part of the state. Republican Lance Eads resigned in October to take a private sector job. Eads was serving in his second term, having run unopposed in the general election in 2016 and 2020.

Four Republicans are looking to succeed Eads, while two Democrats are seeking their party's nomination. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, a top two runoff will be held January 11. The ultimate nominees will advance to the February 8 general election.

Polls close at 8:30 PM ET.

Massachusetts State Senate 1st Suffolk & Middlesex District

Democrats have an overwhelming 36-3 membership advantage in the 40-person Massachusetts State Senate. Term length is two years; the next regularly scheduled elections are in 2022. These will be contested under redistricted boundaries.

The vacancy in this Boston area district occurred in September, when incumbent Democrat Joseph Boncore resigned to take a private sector job. Boncore was in his third term.

No Republican has contested this district since 2012. That streak will continue with the special election. Two candidates are competing in the Democratic primary with the nominee all but certain to be elected on January 11.

Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.

Upcoming

On January 11, there will be a special election to in Florida's 20th congressional district.  The seat has been vacant since long-time Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings died in April. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick won the special Democratic primary by just 5 votes over Dale Holness and she will be a heavy favorite against Republican Jason Mariner. 

This is the only currently open seat in the U.S. House. However, another will occur at the end of 2021, as California Rep. Devin Nunes (R) announced he will resign to lead former president Donald Trump's new media venture.

The 2022 Election Calendar (statewide primaries) kicks off in Texas on March 1. It was to have been followed the following week by North Carolina's primaries. However, these have been delayed until May by the State Supreme Court to allow time for legal challenges to redistricted maps recently approved by the General Assembly.

There will also be several legislative special elections in January and February.

Introducing the 2022 House Interactive Map

The 2022 House Interactive Map is now available. Use it to create and share your own 2022 election forecast.

The interactive map will be updated as states complete the redistricting process and we are able to upload the new district shapes. In some cases, (e.g., Arkansas and Georgia at the moment), new district shapes may be added before they become law if they are all but certain to be enacted (e.g., just waiting on the governor's signature). 

Current House members are assigned to new districts as appropriate. In some cases, redistricting will force two incumbents seeking reelection into the same district. If they are of the same party (e.g., WV-2), the survivor will be determined in the party primary. Alternately, if there is one representative from each party (e.g., NC-11), and both win their respective primaries, they will meet in the general election.

Some states will be gray. Dark gray states, divided by district, can be included in your forecast (i.e., changed to red/blue/toss-up), but were not available to be rated when the map was saved. (For maps that we keep updated - such as those associated with professional analysts - any dark gray states are those that have not yet been rated by the forecaster).

Light gray states do not yet have a redistricted map available; these are not interactive. The counter above the map separates districts in light gray from those in dark. As a result, the light gray total at any given point in time will be the same across all House maps you look at. That number also reflects the number of districts - out of 435 total - that remain to be redistricted.

The current 2022 Consensus House Forecast is below. Click for an interactive version.

Use the drop down list above the map to see all districts, and their numbers, for a selected state.

Use the buttons above the map to toggle between the 'Interactive Map' and the 'Current House'. The current house map reflects the existing district boundaries and incumbents. For representation purposes, these boundaries are in effect until the new Congress takes office in January, 2023. Current maps are available for all states, even those that haven't completed redistricting.

Live Results: New Hampshire State House Special Election

At 400 members, the New Hampshire House is the largest in the country. There are currently 206 Republicans and 188 Democrats. 6 seats are vacant. Members serve two-year terms; the next scheduled elections are in 2022.

With 10 seats, Rockingham 6 is one of the state's largest multi-member districts. All nine incumbents are Republican. The vacancy in the remaining seat occurred in August when Republican Anne Copp resigned.

Jodi Nelson easily won the Republican primary on October 19, getting 78% of the vote in a three-person field. The Democratic nominee is Mary Eisner, who was unopposed. Eisner previously served one term in the House after being elected in 2018. In 2020, she finished first among 10 Democrats on the ballot, but 11th overall, denying her reelection.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Upcoming

The final elections of 2021 take place next Tuesday, December 14.

  • Arkansas State House District 7 (Primaries)
  • Connecticut State House District 116
  • Iowa State Senate District 1
  • Massachusetts State Senate First Suffolk & Middlesex District (Dem. Primary)

The 2022 Election Calendar (statewide primary Election Days) kicks off in Texas on March 1.

GOP Rep. Devin Nunes Will Resign from Congress to Lead Trump Media Venture

Republican Rep. Devin Nunes announced Monday that he will resign from Congress in the coming weeks. He has been hired as CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group, which is preparing to launch a new social media platform called TRUTH Social.

Nunes represents California's 22nd district, situated in the San Joaquin Valley. He did not fare well in the first draft of maps released by California's bipartisan redistricting committee last month. If those boundaries were to hold, CA-22 would shift from a district Trump carried by 5% to one Biden carried by 9%. Overall, the state is losing a congressional district in Census apportionment for the first time ever.

Former Sen. David Perdue to Challenge Gov. Brian Kemp for Georgia Governor

Politico reports that former Sen. David Perdue will enter the 2022 Georgia gubernatorial race, challenging Gov. Brian Kemp for the Republican nomination.

Donald Trump has urged Perdue to get in the race. The former president has repeatedly slammed Kemp for refusing to overturn Joe Biden's Georgia win in the 2020 presidential election. 

At one September rally, Trump even suggested 2018 Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams would be better for the state than Kemp. There's a chance that could play out - Abrams entered the race last week and will almost certainly be the party's nominee again next year.

Perdue served one term in the Senate after being elected in 2014. He lost in a runoff to Democrat Jon Ossoff in January. In a bit of irony, Trump's repeated questioning of the integrity of Georgia's vote in the presidential election may have kept enough Republicans home during the runoff to cost Perdue his job.

Cook Political Shifts Eight Gubernatorial Races Toward Republicans

Citing a sour political environment for Democrats, Cook Political on Friday shifted eight gubernatorial races toward the GOP.  A ninth race was rerated in favor of Democrats. After two other changes earlier in the week, the forecaster has now updated its outlook on 11 of the 36 gubernatorial elections to be held in 2022.

Jessica Taylor's analysis at Cook Political >> ($)

Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin were moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. Of these races, Cook cited Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers (D) as "probably the most endangered".

Maine is now viewed as more competitive, moving from Likely to Leans Democratic.  Still favoring Democrats, but no longer 'Safe', New Mexico and Oregon were moved to Likely Democratic. Iowa and South Carolina, on the other hand, are seen as largely out of reach for Democrats, moving from Likely to Safe Republican.

The lone race moving in the other direction is in New York, which moves from Likely to Safe Democratic.

Earlier in the week, Massachusetts was moved from Safe Republican to Leans Democratic, as GOP Gov. Charlie Baker announced he wouldn't seek a third term. Cook notes this rating may be transitional "until all the primary contours become clearer, but it seems destined to end up in Likely or Solid Democrat very soon." Georgia was moved from Leans Republican to Toss-up, after 2018 Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams entered the race.

The Cook map with these changes is below. Select it for an interactive version to create and share your own 2022 gubernatorial forecast.

Stacey Abrams Running for Georgia Governor in 2022

Democrat Stacey Abrams announced Wednesday that she is running for Georgia governor, setting up a possible rematch with GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, who narrowly defeated her in 2018. 

Kemp defeated Abrams by 1.4% in 2018. It was the third closest gubernatorial race that year. 

Abrams' entry into the race has long been expected. She should have little trouble securing the Democratic nomination. Kemp, on the other hand, has alienated Donald Trump for refusing to help overturn Joe Biden's victory in Georgia last November. Former Sen. David Perdue is considering a primary challenge that would likely come with an endorsement from the former president.

If Abrams were to win next November, she would become the first Black woman elected governor in U.S. history.

Oregon Democratic Rep. Peter DeFazio to Retire

Oregon Rep. Peter DeFazio has become the 19th Democrat to announce they are retiring or seeking another office in 2022. Now in his 18th term, DeFazio is the longest-serving House member from Oregon.

DeFazio was reelected by about 5% in 2020. It was the closest race of his entire House career. The only other time he won by less than double digits was when first elected in 1986. That year, he won by 8%.

While the seat is back in play for 2022, the Democrat that attempts to succeed DeFazio will have the benefit of a more favorable district. According to FiveThirtyEight, the partisan lean of the 4th district moved from R+1 to D+9 in the state's recently completed redistricting.

2022 House Retirements

As of December 1, 2021. Select map for a detailed list.

 

Massachusetts Republican Gov. Charlie Baker Won't Seek a Third Term in 2022

Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker, a popular Republican governor in a deep blue state, said Wednesday that he will not seek a third term in 2022. 

More popular with Democrats and Independents than his own party, Baker was facing a primary challenge from the right by Donald Trump-endorsed former state Rep. Geoff Diehl.

Democrats in the race already include State Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz and former State Sen. Ben Downing. Popular Attorney General Martha Healey, a moderate, has considered running. That candidacy may now be more likely given the incumbent's departure.

The race was seen as Likely Republican with Baker running; we expect forecasters to dramatically shift those ratings towards Democrats in the days ahead. Thus far, Cook Political has moved its rating from Safe Republican to Leans Democratic.

Live Results: Atlanta Mayoral Runoff, Massachusetts House Special Election

Atlanta Mayor

Rank Population Mayor Term Status
38 498,715 Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 1 Did not run

No candidate received a majority of the vote in the November 3 election, necessitating Tuesday's top two runoff. As expected, City Council President Felicia Moore finished first. She received 41% of the votes across the 14-person field. 

In a bit of a surprise, City Councilman Andre Dickens edged out former two-term mayor Kasim Reed by 600 votes to claim the second spot. Dickens received 23% of the overall vote. Dickens has been endorsed by outgoing mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms.

The runoff looks competitive. There have been two polls, which offset each other. A University of Georgia survey showed Dickens with a six-point lead over Moore, while a SurveyUSA poll found just the opposite. Both polls had a significant number of undecided voters.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Massachusetts State House 4th Essex

There are 160 districts in the Massachusetts House of Representatives. The chamber is dominated by Democrats, who hold 129 seats. There are 29 Republicans and 1 independent. The next regularly scheduled election is in 2022.

This coastal district is located in the northeast part of the state. Republican Bradford Hill resigned in September after being appointed to the Massachusetts Gaming Commission. He had been in office since 1999, and had run unopposed over the last decade, except in 2018. That year, Hill defeated Democrat Allison Gustavson by 56% to 44%. 

Primaries for this election were held on November 3. Both featured two candidates. Jamie Belsito won the Democratic nomination with 74% of the vote. The Republican nominee is Robert Snow, who received 57% support. 

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.