Recap of some polls that were released this week.
Iowa: The state kicks off the 2020 vote with its caucus on February 3. A Monmouth University Poll showed former vice-president Joe Biden in front with 27%, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders at 16% and South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg at 9%.
New Hampshire: The nation's first primary is scheduled for February 11. A St. Anselm College poll also had Biden, Sanders and Buttigieg in the top three slots, with 23%, 16% and 11%, respectively. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of neighboring Massachusetts was at 9%.
South Carolina: The final early primary state will hold its contest on February 29, just three days before Super Tuesday. Change Research found Biden with 32% support, Sanders 14% and Sen. Kamala Harris in 3rd at 10%. Georgia's Stacey Abrams was included in this survey; she finished in 6th place with 7%.
In its latest weekly survey of registered Democrats nationwide, Morning Consult finds former vice-president Joe Biden with 32% support. This is 9 points over the 23% received by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. No other prospective nominee broke into double digits.
Biden's undeclared candidacy hit its first rough spot when former Nevada assemblywoman Lucy Flores made the initial allegations of unwanted touching against him in an article published March 29. Several other women have subsequently come forward, with Biden's response thus far not seeming to diffuse the situation.
However, the controversy doesn't seem to have had a notable impact on Biden's standing among Democratic primary voters. In Morning Consult's March 26 survey - a few days before the story broke - Biden had 35% support. His current 32% is right in the middle of the 29-35% range he has received in each Morning Consult survey since early February.
The full results from this week's Morning Consult survey are below. We're tracking all the national polls here.
In the first poll we've seen for the Massachusetts Democratic Primary, Sen. Bernie Sanders has a small lead over former vice-president Joe Biden. Sanders, from neighboring Vermont, registered 26% support, while Biden got 23%. Home state Sen. Elizabeth Warren places third with 14%. Also breaking into double-digits, with 11%, is South Bend Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Massachusetts is one of a dozen states currently scheduled to hold its primary on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.
Note that some of the information on the pages referenced here is preliminary and subject to change. You can find election calendar and party primary/nomination links in the 'President' menu on the page header above.
As usual, Iowa will hold the first presidential nominating contest in 2020. Its caucuses will be held on February 3. This will be followed by February contests in the other traditionally early voting states of New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Super Tuesday follows on March 3. That date will be even more prominent in 2020 as California moves up its traditional June primary. By the end of March, events covering well over 50% of each party’s delegates will have taken place. The party conventions are in July, with the 2020 presidential election scheduled for November 3, 2020.
2020 Democratic Nomination: A historically large field is shaping up for the opportunity to take on President Trump. Given the party's proportional delegate allocation process - and the front-loaded 2020 election calendar - it is quite possible that no candidate will amass a majority of delegates before the party's Milwaukee convention. On the other hand, because there's a minimum vote threshold (15%) to win any delegates in a contest, it is also possible that a candidate could build a large delegate lead without broad party support.
Depending on how the above plays out, a rules change may have significant ramifications as well. Beginning in 2020, what the party is now calling 'automatic delegates' will no longer vote on the first ballot at the convention unless there is no uncertainty about the outcome. More commonly known as superdelegates, these party insiders are not pledged to a specific candidate. These delegates were controversial in 2016, as the majority of them announced early support for Hillary Clinton, creating the perception that the party was putting its thumb on the scale in her favor against Bernie Sanders.
The map below shows the month for each nominating contest; locations in gray have not yet set a date. For now, the map shows estimated total delegates (including superdelegates). On the map page - click the image - we've also listed the national polls. Click any state on the map for polls and more information on their primary or caucus.
2020 Republican Nomination: Barring a credible challenge to the president, the GOP nomination is a foregone conclusion. We do have a delegate map here, with state-level information also available regarding dates and allocation methods, which do vary by location.
New Mexico Rep. Ben Ray Luján announced Monday (video) that he will run for U.S. Senate in 2020. The seat is being vacated by fellow Democratic Sen. Tom Udall, who is retiring. Luján will seek to replicate the 2008 election, where he won his current job as then Rep. Udall departed to seek the U.S. Senate seat.
Luján is the 4th ranking Democrat in the U.S. House. His safely Democratic 3rd district covers much of the northern half of the state. Luján won a 6th term by 32% last November, while Hillary Clinton won here by 15% over Donald Trump in 2016.
Five current House members have indicated they won't seek reelection in 2020. In Alabama, GOP Rep. Bradley Byrne is looking to challenge Democratic Sen. Doug Jones. Rob Woodall (R, GA-7), Jose Serrano (D, NY-15), and Rob Bishop (R, UT-1) are retiring. Aside from GA-7 - which gave us 2018's closest congressional race - all these seats appear safe for the incumbent party.
Democratic New Mexico Sen. Tom Udall said Monday he will not seek a third term. He laid out the reasons via a message on Medium. Udall joins Republicans Lamar Alexander of Tennessee and Pat Roberts of Kansas in announcing a 2020 retirement from the Senate.
The seat is likely to stay in Democratic hands, particularly as it is being contested in a presidential election year. New Mexico has become increasingly Democratic in statewide races in recent years. The last GOP Senate victory was in 2002, when Pete Domenici won a 6th term. Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich and Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham won by double digit margins in 2018, while Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump by about 8% in 2016.
Joe Biden is reaching out to supporters with the news that he intends to run for president, according to The Wall Street Journal. Biden is asking for help in lining up contributions from major donors, which would enable him to announce a large fundraising haul shortly after he officially launches his campaign.
The former vice president, along with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders have separated themselves from the field in most early polling. These are also the two most well-known Democrats in the large group of 2020 hopefuls; this likely explains some of the gap.
Kirsten Gillibrand released a video Sunday in which she officially joined the 2020 presidential race. The New York Senator had launched an exploratory committee back in January. She has several events lined up in the days ahead, culminating in a rally next Sunday outside Trump Tower in New York City.
Gillibrand has not yet gained much traction in the crowded Democratic field. Polling thus far has seen her receive 1% or less support in the early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Beto O'Rourke, who raised his national profile during a 2018 campaign for U.S. Senate, will enter the 2020 presidential race.
The video announcement coincided with the release of a cover story about O'Rourke in the April issue of Vanity Fair.
The 46 year old Texan served three terms in the U.S. House, representing the El Paso area 16th congressional district. He ran for U.S. Senate against incumbent Ted Cruz in 2018. His campaign - and narrow loss to a Senator deeply disliked by Democrats (and even some Republicans) - made O'Rourke a celebrity in progressive circles.
O'Rourke joins a crowded 2020 field of 15 Democrats. In a recent national poll, he received 6% support, almost identical to the 5% who chose him in a poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers. By comparison, Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders - both household names - received about 25% each.
A new poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers finds Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders well ahead in a large Democratic field. The former vice-president receives 27% support, essentially tied with the 25% garnered by the Vermont Senator. While eleven others had measurable support, none received more than 10%.
It is not surprising to see Biden and Sanders as frontrunners. This far out - the caucus is February 3, 2020 - name recognition goes a long way in a poll. That these two are running neck-and-neck is also interesting, as the two represent different wings of the Democratic party that will eventually need to settle on a single nominee that can effectively take on President Trump. Sanders, who challenged eventual nominee Hillary Clinton from the left in 2016, has seen the party move in his direction during the Trump administration. Biden is seen as more centrist - 70% of poll respondents said his political views are "about right", not too conservative or liberal.
Biden has still not announced if he will pursue the presidency in 2020. We should know his decision in the next few weeks. The race takes on a whole new dynamic if he passes, as it is unclear if a single candidate would pick up the bulk of that centrist support, or if it would fragment among others, including former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (if he runs) and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
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