January 25, 2020
Sen. Bernie Sanders has taken the lead among likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa, per a poll released Saturday by The New York Times and Siena College. Sanders saw 25% support, a gain of 6 points from the last Time/Siena poll conducted in late October. That gain appears to have come at the expense of another progressive, Sen. Elizabeth Warren. The only other notable change in the race was a doubling of support - to 8% - received by Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
Sanders also led the CNN/Des Moines Register Poll released January 10. This poll, conducted by Selzer & Company, is generally considered the 'gold standard' of Iowa polling. Former Vice-President Joe Biden has led a couple other polls in the interim, with the net being that the two are basically tied in the overall Iowa polling average. Note that the final pre-caucus poll from Selzer & Company will be released next Saturday, February 1, at 9:00 PM ET. The reveal will be broadcast live on CNN.
The Times/Siena poll also surveyed Iowa registered voters for the November election. President Trump was ahead in each tested match-up. He leads former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg (by 1%), Biden (2%), Klobuchar and Warren (5%), Sanders (6%) and former NYC mayor Mike Bloomberg (8%). The Buttigieg and Biden results are within the margin of error.
At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.
Rescheduled from April 4, this party primary was conducted exclusively by mail
15 seats were updated, 7 of which moved to safe for the November elections
This far out, polling may be of limited predictive value, but it will become more and more relevant as November draws closer
Having a long history of conducting elections by mail, the state was able to keep its original May 19 primary date. Live results for contested presidential and congressional contests