Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington are up next with their primaries on Tuesday. Another dozen states will hold contests through September 10. See the calendar >>
Note that in Washington, all candidates appear on a single ballot. The top two finishers advance to the general election. The election is also conducted entirely by mail.
Use the links below for full results. Displayed are the poll closings converted to Eastern Time.
A recount Thursday confirmed that state Sen. John McGuire defeated Rep. Bob Good (VA-05) in Virginia's June 18 primary. The final margin - 370 votes - was a reduction of only four from the state-certified result announced last month.
Good, in his 2nd term, headed the House Freedom Caucus. He didn't make too many friends during that short tenure. Per Politico, "His determination to block part of the GOP’s legislative agenda by any means necessary made him unpopular with his colleagues. He endorsed Ron DeSantis’ presidential bid even before the Florida governor had entered the race against Trump. Months later, he joined with seven other members last fall to defenestrate former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. And then he needlessly inserted himself into the primaries of his Republican colleagues, spurring personal grievances that compelled them to return the favor."
McGuire will face Democrat Gloria Witt in the general election and is favored to be the next representative from this district in the south central part of the state.
Tennessee holds its primary Thursday, giving us a second primary day this week. The Arizona primary was Tuesday; two of the more interesting contests there remain uncalled as of the publication time of this article.
The remaining 16 states will hold their contests between next Tuesday and September 10.1 149 states will have held a primary. Louisiana has a unique system, with no nominees determined prior to a November 5 all-party primary. A candidate can win an election that day by getting a majority of the vote, otherwise there is a top two runoff.
Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. The state is divided between the Eastern and Central Time Zones. As all polling places close simultaneously, locations observing Central Time close at 7:00 PM local time.
The most interesting contests look to be the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and the GOP nomination fight in the 5th congressional district. All Tennessee Primary Results >>
Republican Primary
Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is seeking a second term. She has a nominal primary challenge.
After a quiet month, the down-ballot primary calendar restarts this week with the Arizona primary on Tuesday. The Tennessee primary follows on Thursday.
The remaining 16 states will hold their contests between August 6 and September 10.1 149 states will have held a primary. Louisiana has a unique system, with no nominees determined prior to a November 5 all-party primary. A candidate can win an election that day by getting a majority of the vote, otherwise there is a top two runoff.
Polls close at 7:00 PM local time. That's 10:00 PM Eastern for all but Navajo Nation, which observes Daylight Savings Time. Those polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern.
On this page, we highlight some of the key races. More Arizona Primary Results >>
Elected as a Democrat in 2018, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema became an independent in 2022. She subsequently decided not to seek reelection.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (AZ-03) is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Republican Primary
Sunday, July 28 marks 100 days until the November 5 presidential election.
We've created a Harris vs. Trump polling map. This will replace the Biden vs. Trump polling map that is no longer being updated.
The polling map does not consider forecasts of how the election will go in November. It is best thought of as an 'if the election was today' view of things.
From the New York Times, "President Biden on Sunday abruptly abandoned his campaign for a second term under intense pressure from fellow Democrats and threw his support to Vice President Kamala Harris to lead their party in a dramatic last-minute bid to stop former President Donald J. Trump from returning to the White House."
The article goes on to say "The president’s decision upended the race and set the stage for a raucous and unpredictable campaign unlike any in modern times, leaving Ms. Harris just 107 days to consolidate support from Democrats, establish herself as a credible national leader and prosecute the case against Mr. Trump."
As a result of this late change to the Democratic ticket, look for the following changes to 270toWin in the days ahead:
The passing of long-time Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (TX-18) on Friday created a new vacancy in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans now hold a 220-212 partisan advantage.
Jackson Lee was renominated for a 16th term in the state's March primary. Replacing her on the November ballot will fall to the Harris County Democratic Party's executive committee, who has until August 26 to nominate someone. It is up to Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to decide whether there is a special election to complete the current term.
The death of Democratic Rep. Donald Payne Jr. in April created a vacancy in New Jersey's 10th congressional district. Party nominees will be chosen Tuesday, with a special general election on September 18.
The winner of the special election will serve through the end of the year.
Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern.
The 2024 Presidential Election Simulator and related statistics are now available on 270toWin. You can conduct individual simulated elections on your own or review the results of 25,000 simulations conducted each morning.
The simulator is largely based on a data-driven presidential model created by JHK forecasts.
The model encompasses both fundamentals and polling. It also accounts for uncertainty, which will decrease as the election draws closer. Since we are still over 100 days from the election, that uncertainty means that any single simulation might produce a result that seems unrealistic.
