By 270toWin Staff - November 23, 2021, 11:37 AM ET
There are 52 seats in the Mississippi State Senate. The chamber is overwhelmingly Republican; that party holds 36 seats, Democrats 15.
District 32 includes much of Meridian and points north. It reaches the Alabama border to the east. It has been vacant since Democrat Sampson Jackson retired June 30, less than two years through the current four-year term. He had been in the Senate since 1992.
Nine candidates, including Jackson's son Keith, met in a nonpartisan special election on November 2. Keith Jackson finished third with 13%. No candidate received a majority of the vote, necessitating a runoff.
Democratic Rep. Peter Welch, Vermont's at-large U.S. House representative since 2007, is seeking a promotion. On Monday, he announced his campaign for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by the retiring Sen. Patrick Leahy (D).
I'm running for the United States Senate to work for you, for Vermont, for our country, and for our imperiled democracy.
Welch was elected in 2006, after then Rep. Bernie Sanders (I) retired to run for the Senate seat he now holds. In a bit of historical alignment, Sanders served eight terms in the House and replaced a retiring Senator, Jim Jeffords (R). Welch is now completing his 8th term, and starts out as a strong favorite to replace the retiring Leahy.
Texas Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson won't seek reelection in 2022. Johnson, who will be 86 in early December, had said in 2019 that she was planning to serve one more term. However, until Saturday, no official retirement announcement had been made. According to the Dallas Morning News, "Johnson said people had been urging her to run for another term in Congress and she went back and forth about the decision but eventually decided to retire."
Johnson represents the safely Democratic 30th district, which includes much of the city of Dallas, and nearby areas to the south. She won her 15th and final term by 59% in 2020; Joe Biden carried the district by 61 points. Congressional redistricting in Texas has changed the current district boundaries (shown below) only slightly for 2022.
Given the lean of the district, it is the upcoming Democratic primary that will almost certainly choose Johnson's replacement. Texas kicks off the 2022 primary calendar on March 1, so the race, which is considered wide open at this point, should develop fairly quickly now that Johnson has made her decision.
Butterfield will be the third long-time Democratic member of Congress to announce their retirement this week. On Monday, it was Vermont Sen. Patrick Leahy; yesterday's decision came from California Rep. Jackie Speier.
Butterfield's district became less favorable in the recently completed redistricting process. In its current configuration, his district voted for Joe Biden by 9 points in 2020. Under the revised lines, which will be used for the 2022 midterm elections, Biden's margin was only three points.
By 270toWin Staff - November 16, 2021, 10:34 AM ET
Democratic Rep. Jackie Speier (CA-14) won't seek a ninth term in 2022, she announced Tuesday. She becomes the 14th current House Democrat to announce they are retiring or seeking another office. Ten Republicans have made that decision, as well.
The Bay Area 14th district is safely Democratic; Speier won a final term in 2020 by nearly 60 points. While the boundaries of the district will likely change a bit after redistricting, there is very little chance of it becoming a competitive seat next year.
Speier had a long career in politics before being elected to Congress in 2008. It was born out of tragedy. In 1978, she was an aide to Rep. Leo Ryan (D), and was among those who accompanied him on a fact-finding mission to Jonestown in Guyana, where the San Francisco-based People's Temple had established a settlement. Ryan was assassinated on that trip, and Speier survived five gunshot wounds. Days later, over 900 members of the cult perished in a mass murder/suicide.
Speier unsuccessfully ran for Ryan's seat in 1979. She won her first election, to the California State Assembly, in 1986.
On Second Thought...
Separately, despite saying in 2019 that she would only serve one more term, Texas Democratic Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson may be planning to run again after all. She has scheduled a press conference for this Saturday. Notably, the phrase "RE-ELECT Johnson" is included in the announcement. The 85-year old represents the safely Democratic Dallas-area 30th district.
By 270toWin Staff - November 15, 2021, 10:34 AM ET
Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont said Monday that he will not seek a 9th term in 2022. First elected in 1974, Leahy has the most seniority of any currently serving Senator.
Leahy is chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and serves on the Judiciary and Agriculture Committees. He is president pro tem of the Senate (most senior member of majority party), placing him third in line for presidential succession.
The next most senior Senator is Republican Chuck Grassley of Iowa, who was first elected in 1980. He said earlier this year that he will seek an 8th term next year.
Despite being solidly Democratic today, Vermont was formerly a reliably Republican state, voting for the GOP in every presidential election but one from 1856 through 1988. One legacy of that: Leahy is the only Democrat ever elected to the U.S. Senate from Vermont. The state's other Senator, Bernie Sanders, caucuses with the Democrats, but is an independent.
By 270toWin Staff - November 15, 2021, 10:03 AM ET
Democrat Beto O'Rourke announced Monday that he is running for Texas Governor. He becomes the first notable challenger to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a third term. The New York Times notes that "the arrival of Mr. O’Rourke immediately set the stage for a pitched political showdown next November over the future of Texas at a time when the state — with its expanding cities and diversifying population — has appeared increasingly up for grabs."
I’m running for governor.
Together, we can push past the small and divisive politics that we see in Texas today — and get back to the big, bold vision that used to define Texas. A Texas big enough for all of us.
O'Rourke is a former congressman, who represented an El Paso-area district for three terms after being elected in 2012. In 2018, he challenged Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in a race that significantly raised his national profile. Cruz prevailed by about 2.5%. O'Rourke announced a run for the 2020 Democratic nomination in March 2019. However, he suspended the campaign prior to the first 2020 primaries.
No Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. The last Democratic Governor was Ann Richards, who served one term after being elected in 1990.
By 270toWin Staff - November 13, 2021, 10:33 AM ET
Rescheduled from October 9 due to the aftereffects of Hurricane Ida, Louisiana holds its fall elections on Saturday. In terms of races we follow, this includes elections for three vacancies in the state legislature and for mayor of New Orleans.
Louisiana has a hybrid system, with no primaries prior to Election Day. All candidates from all parties compete on a single ballot. if one candidate gets a majority, they are elected. Otherwise, the top two finishers advance to a runoff. This year's runoffs will be on Saturday, December 11.
Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
State Legislature Special Elections
Senate District 27
There are 39 State Senate districts in Louisiana. Republicans hold a large 26-12 majority. Senators serve four-year terms; the next regularly scheduled election is in 2023.
Located in the southwestern part of the state, District 27 includes Lake Charles. The former incumbent, Republican Ronnie Johns, resigned in July after being appointed chair of the Louisiana State Gaming Control Board.
There 105 House districts in Louisiana. Currently, Republicans hold 68 of the seats to 32 for Democrats. There are three independents and two vacancies that will be filled by the winners of these special elections. Representatives serve four-year terms; the next regularly scheduled election is in 2023.
Both these districts are heavily Democratic; no Republicans are competing.
District 16: The seat in this Monroe-area district has been vacant since July, when Frederic Jones resigned after being elected to Judicial Court. Jones was in his first term. Three Democrats are on the ballot.
District 102: Gary Carter Jr. resigned from this New Orleans-area district in June after being elected to the State Senate. Carter was in his second term. Two Democrats are on the ballot.
New Orleans Mayor
New Orleans is the 53rd largest city in the United States,11City rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of just under 385,000. The mayor is Democrat LaToya Cantrell, who is seeking a second four-year term. She is the first woman to hold the position in the city's history.
Although she has attracted 13 challengers, Cantrell is expected to win a second term.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska announced Friday that she will seek a 5th term in the Senate next year. Alaska's new election system may help her chances, despite the vocal opposition of former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed one of her challengers.
Murkowski, who called for Trump to resign shortly after the January 6 Capitol riot, was one of seven Senate Republicans who voted to convict him at the subsequent impeachment trial. Trump has vowed to campaign against Murkowski, and in June he endorsed Kelly Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration.
The incumbent should benefit from a change to the Alaska election system, as it eliminates a head-to-head primary battle with Tshibaka. Under the revised rules, implemented after the narrow passage of a voter referendum in 2020, all candidates from all parties will compete on a single ballot in the August 16, 2022 primary. The top four finishers, regardless of party, will advance to the general election. The general election itself will be conducted via ranked choice voting.
Monday is exactly one year - 365 days - from the 2022 midterm elections.
Senate: The chamber is tied 50-50, giving Democrats control with VP Kamala Harris breaking any ties. 34 seats are up in 2022, of which 20 are held by Republicans. However, neither party has an edge when looking at the most competitive seats. Each party holds four of the eight seats currently seen as the most competitive. 2022 Senate Interactive Map >>
House: After last week's two Ohio special elections - split by the parties as expected - there is only one vacancy in the House. That is in FL-20, where a special election will be held in January. Democrats currently hold a narrow 221-213 edge. Current House Map >>
Redistricting is underway, and almost all of the 435 congressional districts will be contested with new boundaries next year. We are working on an interactive 2022 map that will launch with those states that have completed their redistricting, adding others as they become available.
Governor: Republican Glenn Youngkin flipped Virginia last week, while Democrat Phil Murphy was reelected in New Jersey. When Youngkin is sworn in on January 15, the GOP will control 28 of the 50 governorships. 36 states will hold a gubernatorial election next year. 2022 Governor Interactive Map >>