Election News

Poll: Adams Leads Competitive NYC Mayoral Race; Primary is Next Tuesday

A new WNBC/Telemundo 47/POLITICO/Marist Poll shows Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams the first choice of 24% of 876 likely Democratic voters in next Tuesday's New York City mayoral primary. Also seeing double-digit support in the large field are former Sanitation Department Commissioner Kathryn Garcia (17%), civil rights attorney Maya Wiley (15%) and entrepreneur Andrew Yang (13%).  City Comptroller Scott Stringer was 5th with 7%; no other candidate had more than 3%. There are still 13% of voters that are undecided.

The poll also simulated Ranked Choice Voting, which will be used for the first time. There were no shifts during this process - the competitive candidates were eliminated in the same order as they placed in round 1, with Adams crossing 50% in Round 12. Note that while the poll's margin of error for first choice is 3.8%, the statistical uncertainty increases with each round of ranking.

About Ranked Choice Voting: Approved for certain elections in a 2019 referendum, voters can select up to five candidates, ranking them in order of preference.  Initially, each voter's first choice is counted. If one candidate has a majority, that person is the winner. If not, the candidate with the lowest support is eliminated and the second choices on the associated ballots are redistributed to the remaining candidates. If no candidate has a majority, the process repeats until one candidate crosses that threshold. 

In the table below, Round 1 reflects the first choice of voters who had a preference, undecided voters are excluded. 

  

The race has undergone some shifts in recent weeks. Kathryn Garcia saw a large jump in support and took a small lead after receiving an endorsement from The New York Times last month. More recently, Maya Wiley's candidacy was helped significantly by the endorsement of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Adams' support has remained the most consistent among the frontrunners. These ups and downs can be seen in the results of a series of polls from PIX11/NewsNation/Emerson College this spring:

This is also the first NYC mayoral election with an in-person early voting period. That began on Saturday and will last through this Sunday, the 20th. On June 22, the polls will be open from 6:00 AM to 9:00 PM ET.

Results

Looking ahead, we may not know the winner of this primary for a while. We should have first choice results after the polls close on the June 22. However, this will exclude absentee ballots, which, by law, cannot begin to be counted until June 28. The Board of Elections will provide initial Ranked Choice results - without absentees - on June 29 and weekly thereafter (including absentees) until all are finalized. 

New Orleans State Senate District 7 Special All Party Primary Election

The Louisiana State Senate is dominated by Republicans. That party controls 27 of the 39 seats. The next regularly scheduled election is 2023. 

The District 7 vacancy occurred when the former incumbent, Democrat Troy Carter, resigned on May 10. Carter was elected to Congress in an April special election. The New Orleans area district is heavily Democratic. No Republicans ran in 2015 when Carter was first elected; he ran unopposed in 2019.

This is an all-party primary. There are three Democrats on the ballot and one Republican. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, a top two general election will be held on July 10.

Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.

Upcoming

June 15

  • Georgia State House Districts 34 and 156 Special Elections
  • Wisconsin State Assembly District 37 Special Primary 

June 22

  • New York City Mayoral Primary
  • Buffalo, NY Mayoral Primary
  • Alabama State House District 78 Special Democratic Primary Runoff

GOP Rep. Vicky Hartzler to Run for Open Missouri U.S. Senate Seat

Missouri GOP Rep. Vicky Hartzler (MO-4) announced Thursday that she is running for the state's open U.S. Senate seat in 2022. The current incumbent, Republican Roy Blunt, is retiring.

Hartzler joins former Gov. Eric Greitens and Attorney General Eric Schmitt in the race. Also in the race is attorney Mark McCloskey who gained a measure of fame during last summer's Black Lives Matter protests.  Most of Hartzler's GOP colleagues in the state delegation have also given consideration to running. The most prominent Democrat to announce is former State Sen. Scott Sifton. The current consensus rating is Likely Republican.

Missouri District 4

The district currently runs to the south and east of Kansas City, Hartzler won her 6th term by 38 points last November. While the state will maintain its 8 congressional districts over the next decade, the borders of the district will likely shift somewhat in the upcoming redistricting. Nonetheless, it will likely remain safely Republican and speculation has already begun over who will run.

House Retirements

Hartzler is the 13th current House member not seeking reelection next year. 

 

Rep. Val Demings Announces 2022 Challenge to Sen. Marco Rubio

Democratic Rep. Val Demings (FL-10) launched her bid for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Sen. Marco Rubio.  While the move had been widely reported last month, Wednesday marked the official announcement. 

Demings is in her third term representing the Central Florida 10th district. Prior to that, she was Orlando's police chief, which capped a long career in law enforcement. Rubio is completing his second term in the Senate.

The consensus rating for the race is Leans Republican. The Florida U.S. Senate seat is one of 34 that will be contested in 2022.

House Retirements

Demings is the 12th current House member to announce they are not running for reelection. Seven of those are running for another office.

Recap of Virginia and New Jersey Primary Results

Virginia

All Results >>

Statewide Offices

These were all for the Democratic nomination. Republicans picked their nominees at a party convention in May.

Governor: Virginia governors cannot serve consecutive terms, so Gov. Ralph Northam (D) was not on the ballot. As expected, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe won the nomination for the seat he held before Northam. McAuliffe won 62% of the vote in the five-person field. He will start off the general election favored against GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin. If he wins, McAuliffe will be just the second person since the Civil War to be elected twice to the seat. 

Lt. Governor: Incumbent Justin Fairfax (D) ran for governor, finishing a distant fourth. State Delegate Hala Ayala emerged from a crowded field, winning 37% of the vote. She will meet Republican Winsome Sears. As a result, it is all but certain that the state will elect its first-ever female lieutenant governor in November.

Attorney General: Incumbent Mark Herring fought off a strong progressive challenge to win renomination. Herring prevailed 57% to 43% over Delegate Jay Jones. Delegate Jason Miyares is the Republican nominee. Herring is seeking a third term.

House of Delegates

There were 25 contested primaries - 18 Democratic and 7 Republican. Incumbent Lee Carter (D, District 50) was defeated. He was seeking reelection while also running for governor. He finished last in that contest. Apparently, Carter will not miss his current job. Similarly, incumbent Mark Levine (D, District 45) lost while also seeking the lieutenant governor nomination. 

New Jersey

All Results >>

Statewide Offices

Governor:  Former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli won the Republican nomination, finishing just short of 50% in a four-way field. While Ciattarelli was favored, his 23% margin of victory was likely aided by Phil Rizzo (26%) and Hirsh Singh (21%) splitting the vote of the MAGA wing of the party.  Ciattarelli has an uphill battle ahead as he looks to defeat incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who was unopposed for renomination.

State Legislature

State Senate: There were seven contested primaries - four Democratic and three Republican. None of the elections ended up being particularly close.  

General Assembly: There are two assembly members in each district, thus two nominees from each primary. Incumbent Republican Serena DiMaso was defeated in District 13. She was not backed by the party for renomination - and thus not on the "party line" - a very difficult hurdle to overcome in New Jersey. A similar situation is affecting Republican BettyLou DeCroce in District 26. As of this writing, that race has not yet been called. Jay Webber (the other incumbent) and Christian Barranco are currently 1-2. Barranco, at 24% is narrowly ahead of DeCroce who is at 22%.

Overview and Live Results: Virginia Primary

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states with gubernatorial and legislative1 1Both chambers in New Jersey, state house only in Virginia. elections this year. Both states are holding their primaries Tuesday, June 8. Additionally, there is a special election to fill a vacancy in New Hampshire's state house.

New Jersey Primary >> NH State House Special Election >>

 

Virginia Primary Overview and Results

Polls close at 7:00 PM. Live results below for contested primaries. Legislative races are grouped by party. Use the drop down to select the district you want to view.

Governor

Virginia is the only state that doesn't allow governors to serve consecutive terms. As a result, Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam is not on the ballot. 

Republicans nominated businessman Glenn Youngkin at a party convention last month. 

Five Democrats, including former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, are vying for the nomination. McAuliffe, who preceded Northam, is seeking to become just the second person since the Civil War to win a second term.2 2Mills Godwin served from 1966-70 and again from 1974-78. Interestingly, he was elected as the Democratic nominee for his first term and as the Republican nominee for his second. Also on the ballot are Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax and three current or former state legislators.

McAuliffe is favored to win the nomination. He has raised more money than the other candidates combined. A recent poll gave him 49% of the vote. Jennifer Carroll Foy was the only other candidate that cracked double digits - just barely at 11%.

The current consensus rating for the general election is Likely Democratic. However, that may shift over time as both parties see a very competitive race.

Lieutenant Governor

In Virginia, the office of lieutenant governor is separately elected. Unlike the governorship, there are no term limits. However, Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax is seeking a promotion to governor, and is thus not running for reelection.  

Republicans nominated former Delegate Winsome Sears at their convention. 

There are seven Democrats on the ballot. One of them, Elizabeth Guzman has withdrawn. No clear favorite has emerged.

Attorney General

Democratic AG Mark Herring is seeking a third term. He is being challenged by Delegate Jay Jones - who has been endorsed by Gov. Northam - but is favored to win renomination. At the party convention, Republicans chose Delegate Jason Miyares as their nominee.

House of Delegates

The Virginia State House is called the House of Delegates; the more generic term is used in the results tables below. Note that the next elections for the State Senate are in 2023.

Democrats gained six seats to take control of the 100-member House of Delegates in the 2019 elections. The party holds a 55-45 edge. The legislative election forecasting site CNalysis sees the race for control this year as a toss-up

Here's an overview of the contested primaries from CNalysis.

Democratic

There are contested primaries in 18 districts.

Republican

There are contested primaries in 7 districts.

Upcoming

June 12

  • Louisiana State Senate District 7 All-Party Special Primary

June 15

  • Georgia State House Districts 34 and 156 Special Elections
  • Wisconsin State Assembly District 37 Special Primary 

Overview and Live Results: New Jersey Primary

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states with gubernatorial and legislative1 1Both chambers in New Jersey, state house only in Virginia. elections this year. Both states are holding their primaries Tuesday, June 8. Additionally, there is a special election to fill a vacancy in New Hampshire's state house.

Virginia Primary >> NH State House Special Election >>

 

New Jersey Primary Overview and Results

Polls close at 8:00 PM. Live results below for contested primaries. Legislative races are grouped by chamber and party. For example, all the State Senate Democratic Primaries are together.  Use the drop down to select the district you want to view.

Governor

Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is unopposed. The Republican race is a four-way match-up between former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, former Somerset County Commissioner Brian Levine, Pastor Phil Rizzo, and engineer Hirsh Singh. Ciattarelli is seen as the frontrunner, although a recent poll had Singh within six points. Singh is an ardent supporter of former President Trump. This is his 5th bid for public office since 2017. 

Ciattarelli is probably the better general election candidate for Republicans. Either way, Murphy is favored to win a 2nd term in November. The current consensus rating is Likely Democratic. 

State Senate

There are 40 Senate districts in New Jersey. Democrats hold a 25-15 edge, and are expected to maintain control after November's elections. The 2021 elections are for a two-year term.2 2New Jersey has a 2-4-4 system for Senators, where the election that takes place in a redistricting year is for a two-year term. The next two elections are for four-year terms.

Democratic

The majority leader of the Senate, 86 year old Loretta Weinberg (District 37), is retiring. The two District 37 members of the Assembly, Gordon Johnson and Valerie Huttle, are vying for the nomination. The other 24 incumbents are running, with three of them (Districts 18, 20, 28) facing a primary challenge.

Republican

There are contested primaries in Districts 2 and 16, where incumbents are retiring. Also retiring is Thomas Kean Jr. in District 21; Jon Bramnick will be the nominee as the only qualifier. Steve Oroho (District 24) is the only incumbent facing a primary challenge.

General Assembly

The New Jersey State House is called the General Assembly; the more generic term is used in the results tables below. 

There are also 40 Assembly districts in New Jersey, each with the same boundaries as the corresponding State Senate district. However, each district has two assembly members. The Assembly has 52 Democrats and 28 Republicans. Assembly terms are two years. 

As there are two seats in each district, there will be two nominees from each primary.

Democratic

There are contested primaries in Districts 16, 18, 20, 31 and 37.  One incumbent in District 2, 16, 20 and both in District 37 are running for State Senate. One incumbent withdrew in District 31. 

Republican

There are contested primaries in seven districts. One incumbent in Districts 8, 21 and 39 is running for State Senate. The other incumbent in District 8 is retiring. 

Upcoming

June 12

  • Louisiana State Senate District 7 All-Party Special Primary

June 15

  • Georgia State House Districts 34 and 156 Special Elections
  • Wisconsin State Assembly District 37 Special Primary 

Overview & Live Results: New Hampshire Merrimack District 23 Special Election

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states with gubernatorial and legislative1 1Both chambers in New Jersey, state house only in Virginia. elections this year. Both states are holding their primaries Tuesday, June 8. Additionally, there is a special election to fill a vacancy in New Hampshire's state house.

New Jersey Primary >> Virginia Primary >>

 

New Hampshire State House Merrimack District 23 Special Election

The 400 member New Hampshire House is the largest one in the United States. There are currently 212 Republicans, 186 Democrats, with the GOP gaining a majority this past November. There are two vacancies, one of which will be filled in today's election. The other is in Hillsborough District 7, where Republican David Danielson died on May 22.

The 23rd Merrimack District is a multi-member district with 3 representatives. Both incumbents are Democrats. The vacancy was previously held by Democrat Samantha Fox. She resigned on January 12. 

While three Democrats prevailed in November, it was a close election, with all six candidates on the ballot getting between 15% and 18% of the vote. As such, the race is getting attention from both parties. 

Polls close at 7:00 PM ET.

Upcoming

June 12

  • Louisiana State Senate District 7 All-Party Special Primary

June 15

  • Georgia State House Districts 34 and 156 Special Elections
  • Wisconsin State Assembly District 37 Special Primary 

Overview & Live Results: Mayoral Election Runoffs in Arlington and Fort Worth

Two Texas cities will elect a mayor Saturday. These runoff elections were necessitated when no candidate received a majority of the vote in the all-party primaries held on May 1. 

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

City rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.

Fort Worth

Fort Worth is the 12th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 925,000. The current mayor is Republican Betsy Price, who did not seek a 6th two-year term.  Advancing to the runoff were Deborah Peoples and Mattie Parker, who received 34% and 31% of the vote, respectively, on May 1. 

Peoples was formerly chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party, while Parker was chief of staff for the current mayor. While the race is officially nonpartisan (NPA), endorsements have been largely along party lines, with GOP Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Price endorsing Parker. Peoples has received the endorsement of long-time Democratic U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson as well as numerous progressive groups. 

The Dallas Morning News has an overview of the runoff and how the candidates are positioned on issues.

Arlington

Arlington is the 49th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 400,000. The current mayor is Republican Jeff Williams, who won a third two-year term in 2019. He was unable to run due to term limits. Advancing to the runoff were Attorney Jim Ross and former councilman Michael Glaspie. Ross finished well ahead of the seven-person field on May 1, receiving 48% of the vote. Glaspie saw 21% support. 

All five of the candidates that did not advance to the runoff have endorsed Glaspie. Ross has the endorsement of Williams.

Upcoming June 8

  • New Jersey Primary
  • Virginia Primary
  • New Hampshire State House Merrimack District 23 Special Election

Democrat Melanie Stansbury Cruises to Victory in New Mexico U.S. House Election

Democratic State Rep. Melanie Stansbury has won the special election in New Mexico's First Congressional District. She will complete the term of Deb Haaland, who resigned in March to become Secretary of the Interior.

From the Washington Post: "Stansbury defeated state Sen. Mark Moores, who worked to make the race a referendum on Albuquerque’s rising crime rate. Republicans, hopeful that suburban voters might abandon Democrats over their embrace of police reform, were stymied by a Stansbury campaign that emphasized her own support for law enforcement funding."

With most of the vote counted, Stansbury led Moores by nearly 25%. This exceeds Haaland's 16% reelection win last November, as well as a recent poll that gave Stansbury a similar margin. It also exceeds Joe Biden's 23% margin over Donald Trump.

Once Stansbury is sworn in, Democrats will have a 220-211 edge over Republicans, with four vacancies. The next special House special election is a runoff in Texas' 6th district on July 27. Two Republicans advanced in the all-party primary last month, ensuring a Republican hold of the seat.