Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly was sworn in as a U.S. Senator Wednesday. Kelly had defeated Republican Martha McSally in the November 3 elections. Since this was a special election - to complete the term of the late John McCain - Kelly became eligible to be seated once the state certified its election results. It did so on Monday.
The seat will be up again in 2022 for a regular six-year term.
The transition reduces the GOP majority to 52-48 for the remainder of this Congress. It will also be the count for the first couple days of the 117th Congress. The two other seats that flipped in November, Alabama D->R and Colorado R->D will offset. All eyes will of course be on the two runoff elections in Georgia on January 5. Republicans need to win one of those to maintain control of the Senate.
The image below shows the current partisan composition of the Senate by state, followed by what the chamber will look like on January 3 based on this year's elections. The green coloring represents the two independents, both of whom caucus with the Democrats.
All three of the seats that flipped parties moved that state to a single party Senate delegation. As of January 3, treating the independents as Democrats, only five states will have a split delegation: Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin. This will be the smallest number of split delegations since direct election of Senators began in 1913.
No candidate received a majority of the vote in the September 29 special election; forcing Tuesday's runoff. Advancing were two Democrats, Kwanza Hall and Robert Franklin. Hall led with 32% of the vote; Franklin finished 2nd with 28%.
After Lewis died, the Georgia Democratic Party chose State Sen. Nikema Williams as a replacement nominee for the November general election. Williams won easily in this safely Democratic district. She'll be sworn in with the rest of the 117th congress on January 3.
States continue to certify the results. See the current certification map and calendar here. The electors meet to vote in their respective states December 14.
Five states Donald Trump won in 2016 were won by Joe Biden: Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10). In addition, Biden won the electoral vote associated with Nebraska's 2nd district. Before accounting for faithless electors, the result is a mirror opposite of Trump's 306-232 win in 2016.
Democrats gained two seats (Arizona and Colorado) while Republicans flipped Alabama. None of these was a large surprise. The GOP was able to sweep the other seats seen as most competitive: Iowa, Maine, Montana and North Carolina. Control of the Senate in 2021 will come down to two runoff elections in Georgia on January 5. Republicans maintain control by winning either of these runoffs.
The 117th Congress is expected to be seated on January 3. There will be seven new Senators sworn in that day: Tommy Tuberville (R, AL); Mark Kelly (D, AZ); John Hickenlooper (D, CO); Roger Marshall (R, KS); Ben Ray Lujan (D, NM); Bill Hagerty (R, TN); Cynthia Lummis (R, WY).
Democrats will retain control but with a notably smaller majority. Heading into the election, the party held a 233-201 advantage, with one Libertarian. As of this writing, that number is 222-209, with four seats uncalled. NY-1 seems almost certain to stay in GOP hands, which will make it 222-210. The other three races are incredibly tight. See the latest results below the map.
Aside from two seats gained through court-ordered redistricting in North Carolina, the only Democratic flip was in GA-7. Republicans have won back at least 10 seats they lost in 2018. With these gains, Republicans will have the majority of House delegations in 26 or 27 states, while Democrats will have 20. Currently, the GOP edge is 26-23.
The 117th Congress is scheduled to be seated on January 3. Speaker Pelosi's majority will get even more narrow after that, at least temporarily. At least one member, Cedric Richmond (LA-2) has been tapped to join the Biden Administration; he is expected to resign before January 20.
CA-25: A rematch of the district's special election held in May, after the resignation of former Rep. Katie Hill. Republican Mike Garcia flipped the seat.
IA-2: Incumbent Democrat David Loebsack did not seek reelection.
NY-22: A rematch of the 2018 election; Democrat Anthony Brindisi defeated incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney.
Only one of the 11 seats up for election this year was expected to be highly competitive. In the end, Greg Gianforte won that Montana race rather easily, flipping the seat for the GOP. Gianforte will be one of two new governors; Spencer Cox (R, UT) succeeds the retiring fellow Republican Gary Herbert. The tightest election ended up being in North Carolina, where incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper won by 4.5% over Lt. Gov. Dan Forest.
2021 will bring gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia.
We've had some requests for a map of states have certified their 2020 presidential election results. That appears below; the image will update as more states certify. We're using this resource from The New York Times to help populate the map.
States that have certified their results are shown as dark red/blue. Others are shown lighter red/blue based on the projected winner.
11 states have certified as of November 22: Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, Wyoming
Estimated certification dates/deadlines for the remaining states and DC follow. Note that these aren't all ironclad, as the date has passed in a few cases.
Kentucky, Maine + ME-01, ME-02, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Utah
Indiana, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Washington DC
Democrats will have a noticeably smaller majority when the 117th Congress begins in January. Prior to the election, the party held a 233-20111This includes five vacancies allocated to the party that last held the seat. edge over Republicans, with one seat (MI-3) held by Libertarian Justin Amash, who left the GOP in 2019. Republicans regained that seat and have flipped ten others thus far. Democrats have flipped three seats, two of which were virtually certain due to court-mandated redistricting in North Carolina.
Of these ten Republican gains, nine were seats the party had lost just two years ago. Freshman Democrats Gil Cisneros (CA-39), Harley Rouda (CA-48), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26), Donna Shalala (FL-27), Abby Finkenauer (IA-1), Xochitl Torres Small (NM-2), Max Rose (NY-11), Kendra Horn (OK-5) and Joe Cunningham (SC-1) all went down to defeat. In addition, Collin Peterson failed to win a 16th term in the strongly pro-Trump MN-7. The one Democratic gain not associated with redistricting was in suburban Atlanta GA-7, where Carolyn Bourdeaux prevailed. Bourdeaux lost to incumbent Republican Rob Woodall in 2018; it was the closest House race in the country that year. Woodall did not run this year.
Here's a map of where things stand, with the 10 uncalled races shown as toss-up. Click or tap for an interactive version. For those looking ahead, keep in mind that the map will change for 2022, as redistricting will occur based on the upcoming Census results.
Update: The map below will change as these 10 races are called.
CA-21 is a rematch. T.J. Cox (D) defeated incumbent David Valadao (R) in 2018; it was the final U.S. House race to be called that year.
CA-25 is a rematch of the district's special election held in May, after the resignation of former Rep. Katie Hill.
Just 47 votes separate the candidates in IA-2, out of nearly 400,000 cast. A recount is expected. Incumbent Democrat David Loebsack did not seek reelection.
The Associated Press called NJ-7 on election night for incumbent Democrat Malinoski. Our results partner, Decision Desk HQ has not made a call as of yet; the race continues to tighten as more results come in.
The count of absentee ballots did not begin in New York until several days after the election. This has delayed the determination of a winner in several districts.
NY-2 is an open seat, with the retirement of 14 term Republican Peter King.
Heading into the election, NY-3 was seen as safely Democratic.
NY-22 is a rematch of 2018, where Anthony Brindisi (D) ousted then-incumbent Claudia Tenney (R).
Republican Burgess Owens has declared victory over Democrat Ben McAdams who flipped the district in 2018. While the race hasn't yet been called, Owens appears to have the edge.
LA-5 will be decided in a December 5 runoff as no candidate will get a majority of the vote. However, both candidates advancing are Republicans, so the district is decided from a party perspective; that is reflected on the above map.
With one exception, we now know which party will be in the majority in each state's 2021 U.S. House delegation. Aside from Iowa's 2nd district, none of the 14 races that remain uncalled will change this calculation.
Currently, Republicans hold a 26-23 edge, with one tie in Pennsylvania. Democrats are going to lose three narrow majorities, as Michigan and Minnesota move to an evenly split delegation. In Michigan, Republican Peter Meijer won in District 3, reclaiming the seat held by Libertarian Justin Amash who left the party in 2019. In Minnesota, 15 term Democrat Collin Peterson was defeated in the strongly pro-Trump District 7.
Iowa will also move to a tie if Democratic nominee Rita Hart wins in District 2. If Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks wins, the GOP will have a 3-1 edge there. This race is exceptionally close; Miller-Meeks leads by 47 votes out of nearly 400,000 counted thus far.
Therefore, Republicans will have 26 or 27 majorities, Democrats 20 and there will be 3 or 4 ties.
In the map below, Iowa is shown in lighter red, reflecting the 2-1 GOP edge in called races. If you click the image, Iowa will display in purple (tie) on the map because District 2 was consensus-rated Leans Democratic heading into the election. You can use the toggle to the right of the map to adjust that.
This info is nice to know, but becomes relevant in the case of a presidential election where no candidate receives 270 electoral votes. In that case, the newly-elected House would select the president, with each state receiving one vote, regardless of the size of its delegation.
Looking ahead, the 2020 Census reapportionment will change the number of congressional districts some states have after the 2022 election. If this late 2019 projection holds, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania will all lose a district, giving all these currently tied states an odd number of districts. Two states with a small Democratic majority, Arizona and Colorado, are expected to add one each. Montana, with a single at-large district, is expected to gain one. No impact on the partisan majority is likely in the other states expected to gain/lose seats.
These are the states/races where a winner has not yet been projected by our results partner Decision Desk HQ as of the morning of November 10. Vote counts and projections will update on this page.
Some outlets have projected Arizona for Joe Biden; Decision Desk has not as of yet. Donald Trump is likely to win Alaska and is slightly ahead in North Carolina. Joe Biden is slightly ahead in Georgia. If it works out this way, Joe Biden will end up with 306 electoral votes to 232 for Donald Trump. Aside from the reversal in parties, that is the exact same count, based on states won, as 2016.
The Republican incumbent is likely to prevail in both these races, which will put the Senate at 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats. Control of the Senate will be decided by two Georgia runoffs on January 5, 2021.
Democrats will retain control, although the party's majority is likely to decrease. Thus far, Republicans have gained 8 seats (including that held by Libertarian Justin Amash), while Democrats have gained 4.
Depending on where you look, Joe Biden is projected to have won 253 or 264 or 273 electoral votes. Why the discrepancy? There are several independent organizations making race calls. Each has a 'decision desk', where experts (statisticians, political scientists) analyze incoming election results, and mathematically model what's yet to be counted. When they are highly certain that the final numbers for a race will favor one candidate, they will make a call. For example, NBC and ABC use a 99.5% level of certainty before making a projection.
As each of these decision desks works independently, and are sequestered from outside influences, races will be called at different times, although absent the rare situation where a call has to be retracted, they will all eventually get to the same place.
Here's how things stand as of Saturday morning, courtesy of this excellent interactive from The New York Times. In the graphic below, we are showing the states/districts that remain uncalled by one or more outlets.
Here's a bit more on some of the players involved here.
270toWin contracts with Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) to provide real-time vote counts and projections on its site. Founded in 2012, the firm became more well known when it was the first service to call the 2014 Virginia GOP primary where Dave Brat ousted House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. This article discusses how DDHQ goes about its business. As of this writing, it is the only service to have called Pennsylvania for Joe Biden. That put Biden over the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
National Election Pool
This is a consortium of most of the major news networks (ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC) that pools resources to gather vote and exit poll data. The consortium contracts with Edison Consumer Research to collect this information. While the pool adds efficiency to the data gathering process, each of these networks has its own independent decision desk. As of this writing, two of them have called Maine's 2nd district for Trump, while two have not.
The AP has been calling presidential elections since 1848. Here's a bit more on their process. It left the National Election Pool after 2016, and introduced AP VoteCast in 2018. AP VoteCast is a replacement for traditional exit polls, which the AP believes are not as effective in a world where less of the electorate votes in-person on Election Day itself. AP VoteCast is used by several organizations in addition to the AP, including Fox News. AP and Fox (which has its own decision desk) called Arizona for Joe Biden late on election night, while it remains uncalled elsewhere. Most newspaper clients of the AP automatically use the service's race calls, but some, like the New York Times, will make their own evaluation in important races.
Since our earlier article, Wisconsin was called for Joe Biden, while Maine's 2nd district was won again by Donald Trump. Wisconsin becomes the first state to flip from 2016, although Biden did also capture Nebraska's 2nd district.
This leaves seven states where a winner has not been projected. Based on the current map, there are 18 paths for Biden to 270, 11 for Trump and 2 that would result in a 269-269 tie.
Some outlets have called Arizona for Biden; our results provider Decision Desk HQ has not as of yet.
Click the image below to use our 'Road to 270' feature to game out the uncalled states.
Here are the live vote counts for the seven uncalled states. Aside from Nevada, these were all won by Donald Trump in 2016.