Election News

U.S. House of Representatives Retirement Update

This past Thursday, Republican Rep. Dan Bishop (NC-08) announced he was running for North Carolina Attorney General in 2024. He becomes a credible candidate for a position held by Democrats for all but a few months of the past 120 years.1 1Republican James Carson, Jr. was appointed by fellow GOP Gov. James Holhouser, Jr. after Democrat Robert Morgan resigned in August, 1974. He lost a special election later that year to Democrat Rufus Edmisten.

That brings to 13 the number of current members not seeking reelection to the House next year. All but two are seeking another office, with ten running for U.S. Senate. Bishop is the only announced departure seeking a different office. Not included in the 13 is Utah District 2 Rep. Chris Stewart (R), who is resigning effective September 15.

Six Democratic and four Republican-held seats are considered 'safe' for the incumbent party in 2024. The other three seats, held by Democrats, have varying levels of competitiveness.

Live Results: Tennessee State House Special Elections; Nashville Mayor

Tennessee is holding several Thursday races this week. Special elections will be held for four seats in the State House, while Nashville residents will vote on a new mayor.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. 

Tennessee State House

Republicans hold a dominant 75-24 margin over Democrats in the Tennessee House of Representatives. There are no vacancies, as open seats are generally filled on an interim basis until a special election can be held. 

That is the case with the four seats being contested Thursday. Three of these are special general elections; winners will serve out the remainder of the two-year term; the next regularly scheduled elections are in November, 2024. Party primaries are being held in District 51.

District 3

Live Results: Three Mayoral Primaries, NH State House Special Primary

The first elections in August include three mayoral primaries and a state house special primary.

Mayoral Primaries

Three of the nation's 100 most populous cities will hold mayoral primaries on Tuesday.1 1City rankings are based on July 1, 2022 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.  

The primaries are ordered by population, starting with the largest city, Tucson.

Tucson, Arizona

Cook Political Report Initial 2024 Electoral College Race Ratings

Cook Political Report is out with its initial electoral college race ratings for the 2024 presidential election. The forecaster projects an extremely narrow playing field, with the election likely to be decided by voters in just seven states. Read the analysis ($) from Amy Walter.

There are four toss-ups:  Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), and Wisconsin (10). These were the most closely-contested states in the 2020 presidential election, all narrowly won by Joe Biden after Donald Trump took them in 2016. North Carolina (16) starts as Leans Republican, while two states, Michigan (15) and Nevada (6) are Leans Democratic.

Taken together, safe and likely electoral votes are almost evenly split; Democrats hold a 226-219 edge in the ratings.

Trump, Five Challengers Have Qualified for the First Republican Debate

According to Politico, six candidates have met the polling and fundraising requirements to participate in the first Republican debate. 

The list includes the following, ordered by the current 270toWin national polling average.

  • Donald Trump (53.0%), former President
  • Ron DeSantis (20.4%), Florida Governor
  • Vivek Ramaswamy (4.8%), businessman
  • Nikki Haley (3.4%), former UN Ambassador
  • Tim Scott (3.0%), U.S. Senator, South Carolina
  • Chris Christie (2.0%), former New Jersey Governor

Donald Trump, running well ahead of the field in polling, has indicated he may not participate

Related:  Just added to the site - a running list of the most recent polls.

The qualifying period continues until August 21.

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu Not Running for Reelection in 2024

Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire said Wednesday that he will not run for reelection in 2024. The announcement comes less than two months after he opted out of a bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination.

Sununu is in his fourth term as governor. New Hampshire - along with neighboring Vermont - are the only two states with gubernatorial terms of two years.

The decision transforms next year's gubernatorial race into one of the most competitive in the nation. Both Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report quickly moved their respective ratings to toss-up. 


Live Results: Wisconsin State Assembly District 24 Special Election

The first special election in about four weeks will fill a vacancy in the Wisconsin State Assembly.

District 24

Republicans hold a 63-35 partisan edge in the Wisconsin State Assembly. There is a single vacancy. Members serve two-year terms; the next regular elections are in 2024.

Court Orders New York Congressional Map to be Redrawn

The Appellate Division of the New York Supreme Court ordered the state's congressional maps to be redrawn. Republicans, who will likely lose seats with a new map, are expected to take the case to the Court of Appeals, which is the state's highest court. 

The ruling, if upheld, returns the process to the Independent Redistricting Commission, created out of a constitutional amendment approved by voters in 2014. The Commission was unable to reach a consensus in its work after the 2020 Census, handing control to the Legislature. Democrats, with large majorities in both branches, passed a map that heavily favored the party.

Democrats held 19 of 27 seats after the 2020 election. Projections based on the enacted map said it could give Democrats as many as 22 of 26 seats.1 1The state lost a congressional seat based on the 2020 Census.

Republicans Set January 15 for Iowa Caucuses

Iowa Republicans voted Saturday to hold party caucuses on January 15, 2024. This coincides with the Martin Luther King Jr. federal holiday, and will be the earliest kickoff to the presidential calendar since 2012.

The 2024 Presidential Election Calendar has been updated to reflect this finalized date.

With its caucuses, Iowa has held the earliest nominating contests since 1972. This has been followed by New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary. Both parties have also traditionally held these events on the same day.

It is still unclear how this dynamic will play out in 2024. National Democrats voted earlier this year to upend the calendar, placing South Carolina first on February 3. However, Iowa Democrats have previously said they will caucus on the same day as Republicans, which would be out of compliance with the national party. 

Initial 2024 Electoral Map Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball

The initial 2024 Electoral College Ratings from the team at Sabato's Crystal Ball were released Thursday. The forecaster sees the trend of the last few elections continuing. As they put it in the conclusion of their analysis, "[the reality is] that despite the nation being locked in a highly competitive era of presidential elections, the lion’s share of the individual states are not competitive at all."

Only four states, with 43 electoral votes, start out as toss-up: Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6). The first three were the closest in the 2020 presidential election, with Joe Biden prevailing in each by less than 1%. Another 56 electoral votes lean for one party or the other.

The remaining 439 electoral votes are effectively off the board as things look today. These are nearly evenly split, with 221 electoral votes safe or likely for Democrats, 218 in those same categories for Republicans.