Despite being more competitive than the three other vacant House districts, we know for sure that a Republican will win Tuesday's special election in Texas' 6th congressional district. The seat has been open since Republican Rep. Ron Wright died in February.
No candidate received a majority of the vote in the May 1 all-party primary, necessitating Tuesday's runoff. This wasn't a surprise in a huge field of 23 candidates. What was a bit unexpected was that Republicans secured both slots on the ballot.
Susan Wright, widow of Ron Wright, led the primary field with about 19% of the vote. State Rep. Jake Ellzey took the second spot, with just under 14%. Ellzey narrowly edged out Democrat Jana Sanchez, setting up Tuesday's intraparty election.
There has been no public polling and turnout is expected to be low. While we know a Republican will continue to represent this suburban Dallas district, it is very much up in the air which one it will be.
Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.
Endorsements and Fundraising
Donald Trump has repeatedly backed Wright, including a statement released on the eve of the election. As a result, Tuesday's outcome will undoubtedly be seen as another data point on the former president's ongoing level of control over the GOP. On the other hand, Trump's involvement might help Ellzey with Democratic and independent voters.
Tomorrow is the runoff in #TX06. I saw where Wright's internal poll has her up by 10% but I do not believe it. She has been touting the endorsement by Trump but a lot of dedicated Democrat and Independent voters will not vote for her due to Trump. We will see tomorrow. https://t.co/t6VYqqbUE7— Stephen Daniel (@stephendaniel) July 27, 2021
Daniel was the 6th district Democratic nominee in 2020; he lost to Ron Wright by about 9%.
Susan Wright has also been endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz, several members of the Texas congressional delegation, and the third-ranking House Republican, Rep. Elise Stefanik (NY-21).
Ellzey has the support of former Gov. Rick Perry, Rep. Dan Crenshaw and former TX-6 Rep. Joe Barton. He also has been endorsed by the two major local newspapers: The Dallas Morning News and Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Ellzey has also notably outraised Wright. In the latest FEC filing period, Ellzey raised $1.2 million to $450,000 for Wright.
Other House Vacancies
There are currently 220 Democrats and 211 Republicans in the House. In addition to TX-6, there are three other vacancies:
|November 2||OH-11||D+60%||Marcia Fudge (D) resigned in March to become Secretary of HUD. Primaries will be held August 3.|
|November 2||OH-15||R+27%||Steve Stivers (R) to resign May 16 to become CEO of Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Primaries will be held August 3.|
|Jan. 11, 2022||FL-20||D+57%||Alcee Hastings (D) died in April. Primaries will be held November 2.|
The two Ohio vacancies will have competitive primaries next Tuesday. Candidates Nina Turner and Shontel Brown, representing the progressive and more moderate wings of the Democratic party, are battling for the nomination in the Cleveland-area 11th District. Meanwhile, the Republican primary in the Columbus-area 15th district will test the strength of a Trump endorsement at odds with that of the former incumbent.