Election News

Democratic Rep. Anthony Brown to Run for Maryland Attorney General

Democratic Rep. Anthony Brown will run for attorney general of Maryland in 2022. He is looking to succeed fellow Democrat Brian Frosh, who announced last week that he would retire at the end of this term.

Brown represents the state's 4th congressional district. Like several others in this heavily gerrymandered state, it is difficult to describe geographically.

Brown won his third term by an 80% to 20% margin in 2020. While the boundaries will likely shift in upcoming redistricting, it is expected to remain a solidly Democratic district.

22 current House members, including 13 Democrats, have announced they are retiring or seeking another office in 2022.

Poll: Virginia Governor's Race a Dead Heat

A new Monmouth University poll shows a dead heat in the Virginia gubernatorial race. Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Glenn Youngkin are tied at 46% each among registered voters. The result is an improvement for Youngkin; he had trailed by five points in last month's Monmouth survey. 

Using its electoral models, Monmouth says that "a range of reasonable outcomes" is a race decided by 3% or less in either direction. That is reflected in the 'Range' columns in the table below.

Monmouth surveyed 1,005 registered voters in the state. The margin of error is 3.1%.

From the survey release: "The biggest swing in support from Monmouth’s last poll comes from independent voters, registering a 48% to 39% lead for Youngkin now compared with a 37% to 46% deficit in September. Youngkin has also cut into McAuliffe’s advantage with women voters. The Democrat currently has a narrow edge among women (47% to 43%), down from a sizable 14-point lead last month (52% to 38%).

Youngkin has increased his support in the reddest part of the commonwealth, western Virginia, where he currently leads McAuliffe by 66% to 27% (up from 58% to 34% in September). At the same time, McAuliffe has slipped slightly in heavily-blue Northern Virginia. He leads there by 58% to 34%. This is down only slightly from his 58% to 29% lead last month."

The Real Clear Politics average for the race is currently McAuliffe +1.8%.

Early voting is currently underway for the November 2 election.

 

New Hampshire Rockingham District 6 Special GOP Primary

There are two weeks until Election Day. See our First Look for a brief overview of the races we'll be following that day.

This Tuesday, there is one state house special election primary.

New Hampshire Rockingham District 6

The 400 member New Hampshire House is the largest one in the United States. There are currently 207 Republicans and 188 Democrats, with five vacancies. The next regularly scheduled elections are in 2022.

With 10 seats, Rockingham 6 is one of the state's largest multi-member districts. All nine incumbents are Republican. The vacancy in the remaining seat occurred in August when Republican Anne Copp resigned.

Mary Eisner was the only Democrat to qualify; she will be the party's nominee in the December 7 special general election. Eisner finished first among 10 Democrats in the 2020 general election, but 11th overall

Three Republicans are competing for the nomination in Tuesday's primary. Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.

Upcoming

  • October 26
    • New Hampshire State House Cheshire District 9 Special Election
  • November 2
  • November 13
    • New Orleans Mayoral Primary
    • Louisiana State Senate District 27 All-Party Primary
    • Louisiana State House Districts 16 and 102 All-Party Primary

Two Longtime Democratic House Members Won't Seek Reelection

Two longtime Democratic members of the U.S. House announced Monday they will not see reelection in 2022. 

Mike Doyle, now in his 14th term, is the dean of Pennsylvania's congressional delegation. He currently represents the 18th district, which includes all of Pittsburgh and some suburbs, largely to the south and east. He won his final election last November by a margin of nearly 40%. 

Doyle is the 2nd member of the House from Pennsylvania to announce their departure. Democrat Conor Lamb, from the neighboring 17th district, is seeking the U.S. Senate seat currently held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey.

Pennsylvania is losing a seat in the upcoming redistricting. As a result, the 18th district will no longer exist in the next Congress.  Proposed new maps will be drawn and passed by the GOP-controlled state legislature, but can be vetoed by the Democratic governor.

Elected in 1996, David Price is serving his 13th consecutive term representing North Carolina's 4th district. He also represented the district from 1987-1995, losing the 1994 election. Like Doyle, he is the most senior member of his state's delegation.

The 4th district is currently located the north central part of the state, surrounding the Raleigh area to the north and west. The district has been reconfigured twice under court order since the last Census redistricting a decade ago. The most recent of these shifts was prior to the 2020 election, which Price won by about 35%.

In contrast to Pennsylvania, North Carolina is gaining a congressional district. Republicans fully control the redistricting process in the state.

Kentucky Democrat Rep. John Yarmuth Won't Seek Reelection Next Year

Kentucky Rep. John Yarmuth announced Tuesday that he will not see reelection in 2022. Now serving his eighth term, Yarmuth chairs the powerful House Budget Committee.

Yarmuth is the only Democrat in Kentucky's congressional delegation. He represents the 3rd district, which encompasses most of metro Louisville. It remains to be seen if this move has any effect on congressional redistricting in this Republican-dominated state. 

Nineteen current House members have said they are retiring or seeking another office in 2022.

Live Results: Iowa State House District 29 Special Election

There are three weeks until Election Day. See our First Look for a brief overview of the races we'll be following that day.

This Tuesday, there is one state house special election. 

Iowa District 29

There are 100 State House districts in Iowa. Republicans hold a 59-40 edge over Democrats.

District 29 is located east of Des Moines. The vacancy was created when Democrat Wesley Breckenridge resigned on September 10 to take a position with the Iowa Law Enforcement Agency.

Breckenridge narrowly won a third term in 2020, defeating Republican Jon Dunwell by just 3 points.  He had been elected by double-digit margins in 2016 and 2018.

The nominees for this special election were selected by the political parties. Dunwell was renominated by the GOP. The Democratic nominee is Steve Mullan. 

This looks like a competitive race. The local GOP feels they have a good shot at flipping the seat after coming close last November.

Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.

Upcoming

  • October 19
    • New Hampshire State House Rockingham District 6 Special GOP Primary
  • October 26
    • New Hampshire State House Cheshire District 9 Special Election
  • November 2

First Look: Election Day 2021

Election Day 2021

The 2021 off-year elections are being held on Tuesday, November 2. New Jersey and Virginia have elections for statewide offices, including governor. There are also legislative elections in both states, although the State Senate in Virginia will not be contested until 2023.

There will also be two special elections in Ohio to fill congressional vacancies, along with primaries in FL-20 as the process begins to fill the only other currently open seat in the U.S. House.

Approximately a dozen state legislative special elections will also be contested that day. Finally, voters in 17 of the nation's 100 largest cities will make their choice for mayor.

We'll have more on these races as Election Day nears, with live results as the polls close on November 2.

Virginia

The state is the only one where governors can not serve consecutive terms. Terry McAuliffe is looking to reclaim the role he held from 2014-2018. State Senators serve four year terms; only the House of Delegates (state house) is on the ballot this year. 

There is currently a state government trifecta, where one party controls the governor's office and both chambers of the state legislature. With competitive elections for governor and for control of the House of Delegates, the Democratic trifecta is at risk. Polls close at 7:00 PM ET. 

Office Comments
Governor Ralph Northam (D) is term-limited. Polls have Terry McAuliffe (D) slightly ahead of Glenn Youngkin (R)
Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax (D) did not run. Polls have Hala Ayala (D) slightly ahead of Winsome Sears (R)
Attorney General Polls have incumbent Mark Herring (D), who is seeking a 3rd term,  with a modest lead over Jason Miyares (R).
House of Delegates Democrats gained control after the 2019 election. The battle for control this year is a toss-up.

New Jersey

Democrats are expected to maintain their state government trifecta. Unlike Virginia, where each office is contested separately, the nominees for governor and lieutenant governor run jointly on the same ballot line.

The State Senate operates on a 2-4-4 schedule, with elections won in redistricting years (i.e, this year) having a two year term. In 2023 and 2027, elections will be for four year terms.

Polls close at 8:00 PM ET. 

Office Comments
Governor Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is favored to win a 2nd term.
State Senate Democrats are favored to maintain control.
General Assembly Democrats are favored to maintain control.

U.S. House of Representatives

There are currently three vacancies. Special elections will fill the two in Ohio, with party primaries in FL-20. The special general election there will be January 11, 2022. These three seats will next be contested for a full two-year term next November, although the boundaries are likely to be different due to redistricting. 

Polls close at 7:00 PM in Florida and 7:30 PM in Ohio

District Comments
FL-20 (Primary) 11 Democrats, 2 Republicans competing for nominations in this deep blue district.
OH-11 Shontel Brown (D) is expected to win by a large margin, holding seat for Democrats.
OH-15 Mike Carey (R) is favored to win, keeping the seat in Republican control.

Legislative Special Elections

There are nearly 7,400 seats in state legislatures across the 50 states. As such, there are almost always multiple vacancies, with special elections occurring throughout the year.

This set of special elections are taking place on Election Day itself.

State Senate

At first glance, these all look likely to safe for the incumbent party. In Mississippi, if no candidate gets 50%, there will be a runoff on November 27.

District Comments
KY-22 Long-time GOP incumbent passed away in July.
MI-8 GOP incumbent resigned after being elected to another office. 
MI-28 GOP incumbent resigned after being elected to another office.
MS-32 Nonpartisan special election; Democratic incumbent resigned in June.
MS-38 Nonpartisan special election; Democratic incumbent resigned after being elected to another office.
RI-3 Democratic incumbent resigned to join Biden Administration.

State House

At first glance, these House districts also look likely to safe for the incumbent party. ME-86 has been competitive at times over the past decade, although GOP won by 14 points in 2020. 

District Comments
GA-165 Democratic incumbent passed away in August; 11/30 runoff if no candidate gets a majority.
KY-51 GOP incumbent passed away in July. 
KY-89 GOP incumbent resigned in August.
MA Essex 4 GOP incumbent resigned in September. These primaries precede the November 30 special election.
ME-86 GOP incumbent resigned in July. This district has flipped between parties over the past decade; GOP won by 57%-43% in 2020.
PA-113 Democratic incumbent resigned after being elected to another office.
PA-164 Democratic incumbent resigned in July.

Mayoral Elections

These are elections in the 100 largest cities by population. They are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. Rankings are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. 

Many of these are nonpartisan elections. Party affiliations are included where known.

City Comments
New York (1) Eric Adams (D) heavily favored in this deep blue city.
Seattle (18) Incumbent Jenny Durkan (D) did not run; two most recent City Council Presidents advanced from primary.
Boston (24) Acting mayor Kim Janey (D) lost in primary. City will elect its first woman and first person of color as mayor.
Detroit (27) Incumbent mayor Mike Duggan (D) is expected to be reelected.
Albuquerque (32) Mayor Tim Keller (D) seeking 2nd term; December 7 runoff if no candidate gets >50%.
Atlanta (38) Kasim Reed (D) attempting to return to office he held for two terms. Runoff on November 30 if no candidate gets majority.
Miami (44) Francis X. Suarez (R) is expected to win a 2nd term; November 15 runoff if no candidate gets >50%.
Minneapolis (46) Jacob Frey (D) is seeking a 2nd term. Over 15 candidates on the ballot; winner will be determined by Ranked Choice Voting. 
Cleveland (54) Incumbent retiring. Justin Bibb and Kevin Kelley, both (D), advanced from primary.
Saint Paul (63) Melvin Carter III (D) is expected to win a 2nd term.
Cincinnati (65) Incumbent term-limited. Aftab Pureval, David Mann, both (D), advanced from primary.
Pittsburgh (68) Ed Gainey ousted incumbent Bill Peduto in Dem. primary; should easily win.
Jersey City (71) Mayor Steve Fulop (D) is seeking a 3rd term.
Durham (75) Incumbent Steve Schewel (D) not running. 
Buffalo (76) Incumbent Byron Brown (D) lost primary; will try and hold seat via write-in campaign.
Toledo (79) Incumbent Wade Kapszukiewicz (D) is expected to win a 2nd term.
St. Petersburg (85) Incumbent term-limited. This is a runoff; Ken Welch (D) is favored.

Live Primary Results: Vacant RI State Senate Seat, Mayor of Durham, NC

This week we're following two primaries, one for a State Senate special election in Rhode Island along with a mayoral primary in Durham, NC. There are four weeks until Election Day, 2021.  

Rhode Island

State Senate District 3 Primary

There are 38 State Senate districts in Rhode Island. The chamber is overwhelmingly Democratic; the party has 32 seats, the GOP holds just five.  Senators serve two-year terms; the next regularly scheduled election is in 2022.

The Providence area District 3 vacancy was created by the resignation of Democrat Gayle Goldin on August 17. She took a position in the U.S. Department of Labor. Goldin was first elected in 2012. She has faced only write-in opposition in this deep blue district.

Despite the long odds, Republicans are fielding a candidate in the November 2 special election. Alex Cannon was the only qualifier, so there will be no GOP primary.

Five Democrats are competing for the party's nomination. 

Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.

Durham, NC

Mayoral Primary

Durham, North Carolina is the 75th largest city in the United States,1 1City rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of just under 285,000.  Tuesday's nonpartisan mayoral primary will select the two candidates that will meet in the November 2 general election.

The mayor is Democrat Steve Schewel. He is completing his third two-year term and is not running for reelection. 

Seven candidates are looking to succeed Schewel. The frontrunners appear to be City Council member Javiera Caballero and former judge Elaine O'Neal.

Polls close at 7:30 PM Eastern Time.

Upcoming

  • October 12
    • Iowa State House District 29 Special Election
  • October 19
    • New Hampshire State House Rockingham District 6 Special GOP Primary
  • October 26
    • New Hampshire State House Cheshire District 9 Special Election
  • November 2

The Classic 'I'm Just a Bill' Reimagined for Today's Political Environment

Politico has reimagined the classic 1976 Schoolhouse Rock! segment "I'm Just a Bill".  The new version details a much more arduous process that proposed legislation often has to get through in today's gridlocked political environment. 

It's worth a watch: 

The original version can be viewed here.

Overview and Live Results: Texas State House Special Elections

Special elections are being held Tuesday for two vacancies in the Texas State House. The 150-member body is controlled by Republicans, who have an 82-66 edge over Democrats. 

Under Texas special election law, all candidates appear on a single ballot. If someone gets a majority of the vote, they are the winner. Otherwise, the top two finishers advance to a runoff.

District 118

This San Antonio area district has been vacant since August 19, when Democrat Leo Pacheco resigned. Pacheco was elected twice, first winning by a 58% to 42% margin over John Lujan in 2018. Last November, Pacheco prevailed over Adam Salyer by an almost identical 57% to 40%. 

Five candidates - 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans - will appear on the ballot. Lujan and Salyer are the two Republicans. Lujan was the most recent Republican to hold the seat. Although Democrats have won each general election here since at least 2012, Lujan prevailed in a January, 2016 special election, serving out that term before losing in November. 

Lujan has the support of Gov. Greg Abbott and GOP groups, as the party looks to flip the seat.  According to the Texas Tribune, "It is the first real opportunity that statewide Republicans have to put their money where their mouths are after President Joe Biden underperformed across South Texas last year, creating new pick-up opportunities in the predominantly Hispanic region."

If no candidate gets a majority, Abbott will schedule a date for the runoff election.

District 10 (Runoff)

This solidly Republican district, located between Dallas and Waco, has been vacant since July 30, when Jake Ellzey (R) resigned. Ellzey had won a special election on July 27th to represent the state's 6th congressional district.

None of the eight candidates received a majority of the vote in the August 31 all-party election. Consistent with the lean of the district, the top two finishers were both Republicans, removing any suspense over which party will win in the runoff. Brian Harrison finished first with 41%, John Wray was second with 36%.  

Upcoming

  • October 5
    • Rhode Island State Senate District 3 Primary
    • Durham, NC Mayoral Primary
  • October 12
    • Iowa State House District 29 Special Election
  • October 19
    • New Hampshire State House Rockingham District 6 Special GOP Primary
  • October 26
    • New Hampshire State House Cheshire District 9 Special Election
  • November 2