By 270toWin Staff - September 30, 2022, 2:15 PM ET
Friday will be the final day in the U.S. House for Rep. Ted Deutch (FL-22). The Florida Democrat had announced earlier this year that he would not seek reelection, and would depart before the end of the term. He is moving to a new role as CEO of the American Jewish Committee.
Barring any unexpected changes, Democrats will hold a 220-212 edge over Republicans through the November 8 general election. On that date, there will be a special election to fill the vacancy in Indiana's 2nd District. The seat became open when Jackie Walorski (R) died in an automobile accident in early August. Republicans are expected to hold the seat, making the partisan composition 220-213 for the lame duck period.
The other two open seats, both in Florida, will not be filled until the start of the new Congress in January. In addition to Deutch's district, Charlie Crist resigned from the 13th District at the end of August to focus on his general election campaign against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.
By 270toWin Staff - September 27, 2022, 5:56 PM ET
Today marks 42 days - six weeks - until the 2022 midterm elections.
Here are polls released over the past couple days. Click or tap a table for all recent polls of that office. From there, you can view polls for an individual state or district.
By 270toWin Staff - September 19, 2022, 9:53 AM ET
Today marks 50 days until the November 8 midterm elections. To mark the occasion - although the timing is really just a coincidence - we've launched the 2022 House Simulator.
Run as many simulated elections as you'd like for the 435 U.S. House seats up this year. The results of a simulation can be displayed randomly, or in order of poll closing times. A table below the map will track your simulations until the browser tab is closed.
Democrats narrowly control the chamber, with a 221-212 edge over Republicans. Assigning the two vacancies (FL-13 and IN-02) to the prior incumbent party gives us a 222-213 count at full strength. Republicans will need to gain five seats in November to take back the Speaker's gavel.
There are still a wide range of possible outcomes for the election. Any individual simulation is plausible, although no one result is particularly likely. To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each afternoon, including the results on our House Battle for Control page. That page also includes a list of the 50 most competitive districts, based on the most recent day's simulations.
Currently, the model gives Republicans a 75% chance of gaining control of the House. The average result is 226-209, a 14 seat GOP gain.
A Senate Simulator is also available for that evenly-split chamber. There are 35 elections this year.
By 270toWin Staff - September 15, 2022, 1:38 PM ET
As this year's primaries (view results by state) draw to a close, we count 36 U.S. House races where only one of the two major parties will be on the ballot. 24 of these are held by Republicans, 12 by Democrats.
17 incumbents have no opponent. In 13 other districts, opposition is from a 3rd party or independent candidate. Finally, in six California districts, Democrats won both positions in the top-two primary.
Looking back to similar races across the last two cycles, this year's total of 36 is in the middle. In 2018, there were 42 such races; that number declined to 27 in 2020.
Totally Unopposed
There are 17 incumbents - 14 Republicans and three Democrats - that have the ballot all to themselves. Their only opposition would be via write-in, where allowed.
In 2020, this number was 11, split more evenly with six Republicans and five Democrats.
District
Incumbent
District
Incumbent
AZ-08
Debbie Lesko
PA-15
Glenn Thompson
AZ-09
Paul Gosar
SC-03
Jeff Duncan
FL-05
John Rutherford
SC-04
William Timmons
IL-07
Danny Davis
TX-06
Jake Ellzey
LA-04
Mike Johnson
TX-11
August Pfluger
MA-04
Jake Auchincloss
TX-25
Roger Williams
NY-13
Adriano Espaillat
TX-31
John Carter
PA-13
John Joyce
WI-06
Glenn Grothman
PA-14
Guy Reschenthaler
No Major Party Opposition
13 incumbents - 10 Republicans and three Democrats - face 3rd party or independent opponents. This list has grown from eight in 2020.
District
Incumbent
District
Incumbent
AL-01
Jerry Carl
NY-09
Yvette Clarke
AL-06
Gary Palmer
PA-03
Dwight Evans
CA-10
Mark DeSaulnier
SD-AL
Dusty Johnson
FL-06
Michael Waltz
TX-19
Jodey Arrington
FL-18
Scott Franklin
TX-26
Michael Burgess
LA-061
Garret Graves
WI-08
Mike Gallagher
ND-AL
Kelly Armstrong
1Not a perfect fit for the list, as there is a second Republican on the ballot in this all-party primary. Should Graves fail to get a majority of the vote, there will be a top-two runoff. In that scenario, if the other Republican also advances, this election will move to the 'Same Party Opposition' list.
Same Party Opposition
California and Washington hold top-two primaries, where all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot. The two highest finishers go on to the general election. Six districts - all in California - advanced two Democrats.
In 2020, there were eight such districts, seven in California and one in Washington.
District
Incumbent
District
Incumbent
CA-152
Jackie Speier
CA-30
Adam Schiff
CA-16
Anna Eshoo
CA-34
Jimmy Gomez
CA-29
Tony Cardenas
CA-372
Karen Bass
2Incumbents - based on where they likely would have run after redistricting - are retiring from the House.
Correction: The original article did not include PA-13 Rep. John Joyce as unopposed on the ballot. He has been added, with the total counts of unopposed House members updated through the article, as applicable.
By 270toWin Staff - September 13, 2022, 1:08 PM ET
The primary calendar wraps up this Tuesday with contests in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Up next is the general election on November 8.
In terms of primaries of interest this week, most of the action is on the GOP side in New Hampshire. Contests for U.S. Senate and both U.S. House seats, all currently held by Democrats, feature proxy battles between establishment and Trump-aligned wings of the party.
In Rhode Island, the Democratic governor is in a closely-contested primary, while the party will also choose a nominee to replace a retiring member in House District 2.
Results for some of the more interesting elections are on this page. Use the links below to see all results. Latest poll closing (Eastern Time) appears below the state name. If you are voting in one of these locations, check with your polling place as the hours may differ. This is especially true in New Hampshire.
The final state to determine its U.S. Senate nominees is also among the more competitive general election contests. Democrat Maggie Hassan, then the state's governor, flipped the seat in 2016, defeating GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte. The margin of victory was extremely narrow, with Hassan prevailing by about 1,000 votes among over 700,000 cast. She is seeking a second term and should have little trouble being renominated.
All eyes will be on the Republican primary, where a large field is competing for the nomination. However, this looks like a two-way contest between Don Bolduc, an Army Special Forces veteran and Chuck Morse, president of the State Senate. Bolduc ran for the state's other Senate seat in 2020, finishing second in the primary with 42% of the vote.
The most recent poll we've seen gives Bolduc a 10 point lead, 33% to 23%, over Morse, with 25% undecided. No other candidate broke double-digits.
While not formally endorsed by the former president, Bolduc has been targeting his base. Morse has been endorsed by Republican Gov. Chris Sununu and is the favorite of establishment members of the party, who think Bolduc is less electable. Democrats, thinking the same, are spending millions on ads to slam Morse, hoping to get Bolduc across the finish line.
Governor
Rhode Island
Incumbent Democratic Gov. Dan McKee is seeking his first full term. The former lieutenant governor succeeded Gina Raimondo (D) in March, 2021. Raimondo resigned after being confirmed as U.S. Secretary of Commerce.
McKee faces several primary challengers and is not a sure bet to be renominated. His closest challenger in this five-person field appears to be Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea. Also seeing notable support is businesswoman Helena Foulkes. There isn't much polling to go on; both McKee and Gorbea have led surveys, but generally within the margin of error.
Whoever emerges as the nominee will be favored in November.
New Hampshire
Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is seeking his fourth term. The state is one of only two - neighboring Vermont the other - where the gubernatorial term is two years instead of four. Although he has drawn a few challengers, Sununu is expected to be renominated and is a heavy favorite in the general election.
State Sen. Tom Sherman is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
U.S. House
New Hampshire District 1 (Republican)
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is seeking a third term; he is unopposed for renomination. This is a highly competitive general election district; the partisan composition was not altered significantly by redistricting.
Ten Republicans are seeking the nomination. The frontrunners appear to be Matt Mowers and Karoline Leavitt. Mowers was the 2020 nominee in the district, losing to Pappas by about 5%.
The party establishment is split, with both Mowers and Leavitt gaining endorsements from GOP leadership. Also seeing notable political support are Gail Huff Brown and Tim Baxter, although they have trailed in polling.
New Hampshire District 2 (Republican)
Democratic Rep. Ann Kuster is seeking a 6th term; she is unopposed for renomination. The Republican nomination appears to be a two-way race between former Hillsborough County Treasurer Bob Burns and Keene Mayor George Hansel.
In a story similar to the state's U.S. Senate race, Democrats are spending money to prop up the more conservative Burns, seeing him as the weaker general election candidate. This district leans a bit more Democratic than District 1, but still within reach for a Republican flip in November.
Rhode Island District 2 (Democratic)
Democrat Jim Langevin is retiring after 11 terms. Several candidates are on the Democratic ballot to try and succeed him. The frontrunner is State Treasurer Seth Magaziner, who has been endorsed by Langevin.
The GOP field has cleared for Allan Fung, the former Mayor of Cranston. He is unopposed for the nomination. Fung was also the GOP nominee for governor in both 2014 and 2018.
A Republican hasn't won a U.S. House seat in Rhode Island since 1992, but the general election is shaping up to be competitive. Most forecasters rate it 'Leans Democratic', but a June Suffolk University poll - the most recent available - showed Fung ahead by 45% to 39%.
Upcoming
November 8
Election Day
Louisiana All-Party Primary11Louisiana holds its version of primaries on the same day as the general election in the other 49 states. In the Pelican State, all candidates appear on a single ballot. If one gets a majority of the vote, he or she is elected. Otherwise, the top two advance to a December 10 runoff.
Indiana U.S. House District 2 Special Election
Mayoral Election in Los Angeles and 20 other top-100 population cities
State Senate Special Elections: LA-05, MT-15, OR-18, WA-27
By 270toWin Staff - September 13, 2022, 8:50 AM ET
Vacancies in the U.S. House will drop from five to two on Tuesday, as three recent special election winners are sworn in. Democrats gained a seat in those elections bringing he partisan composition of the chamber to 221 Democrats and 212 Republicans.
The Democratic gain was in Alaska, where Mary Peltola will complete the term of the late Republican Don Young. Peltola is on the general election ballot, in what will be a special election rematch against Republicans Sarah Palin and Joe Begich.
In New York, Democrat Pat Ryan (NY-19) and Republican Joe Sempolinski will replace incumbents that resigned. Due to redistricting shifts, Ryan will run in neighboring NY-18 in November. Sempolinski did not run for a full term, and has been added to the list of retiring House members.
The remaining vacancies are in Indiana and Florida. Republican Jackie Walorski (IN-02) was killed in a car accident early last month. The seat will be filled via special election on November 8. Democrat Charlie Crist (FL-13) resigned at the end of August to focus on his campaign for governor. This seat will remain open until the new Congress is seated in January, 2023.
An additional vacancy is expected by the end of the month. Democrat Ted Deutch (FL-22) previously announced he would resign early to become CEO of an advocacy group.
By 270toWin Staff - September 6, 2022, 12:19 PM ET
The 2022 primary calendar is winding down with four East Coast states. This Tuesday is Massachusetts, with Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island all following in one week.
Louisiana will hold its version of primaries on November 8, the same day as the general election in the other 49 states. In the Pelican State, all candidates appear on a single ballot. If one gets a majority of the vote, he or she is elected. Otherwise, the top two advance to a December 10 runoff.
Massachusetts
Voters will choose nominees for Governor, U.S. House, and State Legislature. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.
Although one of the most popular governors in the country, Republican Charlie Baker decided not to seek a third term. Given the lean of the state, the seat is likely to flip to the Democrats in November.
The Democratic nominee will be the state's Attorney General, Maura Healey. Her opponent for the nomination, state Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz withdrew from the race in June, although she remains on the ballot.
The Republican primary features former state Rep. Geoff Diehl and businessman Chris Doughty. Former President Donald Trump has endorsed Diehl.
U.S. House
Democrats hold all nine U.S. House seats. Each incumbent is running and unopposed for renomination. All are likely to be reelected in November.
By 270toWin Staff - September 5, 2022, 10:39 AM ET
Try out the new 2022 Senate Simulator. Run as many simulated elections as you'd like for the 35 Senate seats up this year. The results of a simulation can be displayed randomly, or in order of poll closing times. A table below the map will track your simulations until the browser tab is closed.
The Senate is evenly split at 50-50. Democrats control the chamber since Vice-President Kamala Harris can break tie votes. Republicans need to gain one seat to take back the majority.
There are still a wide range of possible outcomes for the election. Any individual simulation is plausible, although no one result is particularly likely. To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each afternoon, including the results on our Senate Battle for Control page. That page also includes daily results by state and links to each state's trend over time.
Currently, the model gives Democrats a 62% chance of winning the Senate.
A House Simulator will be available soon - hopefully in the next week or so. The 2022 midterm elections are nine weeks from tomorrow.
On Wednesday, Alaskans will find out who will represent them in the U.S. House through the end of the year. The state's single at-large district has been vacant since March, when GOP Rep. Don Young died. Young had held the seat since 1973.
As no candidate received a majority of the first-choice vote in the August 16 election, the winner will be determined via ranked choice voting. Ballots mailed from overseas, postmarked by Election Day, could arrive up to 15 days later and still be counted. This is why the process was not completed prior to August 31.
The Alaska Division of Elections will run the ranked choice voting tabulation in the 8:00 PM Eastern Time hour. Access the live stream here.
The table below should update with the final result when available. Until that time, it will reflect the first choice results (August 16 voting).
How we got here
After Young's death, an all-party primary was scheduled for June 11. There were 48 candidates on the ballot, with the top four advancing to the August 16 special election. Sarah Palin, the former governor and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, finished first with 27% of the vote. Fellow Republican Nick Begich had 19%. Independent candidate Al Gross was third with 13%, and Democrat Mary Peltola took the final spot with 10%.
Nonpartisan Al Gross, the third place finisher, subsequently withdrew and endorsed Peltola. That left three candidates, as well as the option for a write-in, on the August 16 special election ballot.
This table shows the vote tabulation as of Wednesday afternoon. It includes those who did a write-in as first choice. To the extent those voters also ranked named candidates on the ballot, they will be included in the tabulation.
Assuming these first choice results hold, the final round will see Begich's votes reallocated between Peltola, a former state representative, and Palin. The final result is likely to be close.
Rep. Charlie Crist (FL-13) is resigning from Congress effective at the end of the day Wednesday. Crist won the Democratic nomination earlier this month to take on Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in November.
The move is similar to one DeSantis himself made in 2018, when he resigned his U.S. House seat in September to focus on the gubernatorial campaign.
Update on Vacancies
Crist's departure will reduce the Democratic majority to 219-211. His seat will remain vacant until the start of the new congress in 2023.
As for the other four open seats:
We fill find out at approximately 8:00 PM Eastern Time tonight who will win the special election in Alaska's At-Large congressional district. At that time, the state will determine the winner via ranked choice tabulation. The seat has been vacant since Republican Don Young died in March.
The vacancies in New York's 19th and 23rd districts - both created via resignation - were resolved via special election last Tuesday. The incumbent party held both those seats, with Democrat Pat Ryan winning NY-19 and Republican Joe Sempolinski victorious in NY-23. Both will be sworn in on September 13, as will the winner in Alaska.
The final vacancy, in Indiana's 2nd district, will be filled via special election on November 8, the same day as the general election. Republican Jackie Walorski died on August 3.
