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A List of Prospective 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates

December 5, 2018

This week, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and attorney Michael Avenatti dropped off the list of prospective 2020 Democratic presidential candidates. Patrick informed staff and advisers on Tuesday, with a public statement expected in the days ahead. Avenatti announced his decision by Twitter, citing family concerns.

That leaves 28 names on our current list of possible Democratic contenders. Only two, Rep. John Delaney of Maryland and former Rep. Ojeda of West Virginia have formally announced. We should have a pretty good idea of who is actually going to run within the next 2 to 3 months. 

All these names are available on the 2020 Interactive Electoral Map. Just click/tap 'Democrat' above the electoral counter and choose from the drop-down list. 

For those that have asked, we will be adding the 'tilt' ratings option to the electoral map in the near future.



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North Carolina Delays Certification of 9th District Race; AP Retracts Call for GOP

November 30, 2018

Maybe we're not done with the midterms after all. North Carolina officials have again declined to certify the results in the state's 9th congressional district. Allegations of voter fraud will continue to be investigated, and a hearing will be held on December 21st. The issues seem centered around absentee ballot irregularities, particularly in Bladen County.

On Friday afternoon, the Associated Press retracted their November 9th call for Republican Mark Harris, who appeared to have won the race by about 0.6%. They are basically going to treat this situation as they do races with recounts. AP does not call winners in any election that is subject to recount. They may also be wanting to get out in front of this situation, after they were slow to retract their call in CA-21.

The state board has the authority to call for a new election if "irregularities or improprieties occurred to such an extent that they taint the results of the entire election and cast doubt on its fairness."  For more, follow this Twitter Moments thread from WSOC-TV reporter Joe Bruno. 


Split Senate Delegations to Decline Substantially in 2019

November 30, 2018

Following the 2018 midterm elections, the number of states with a split U.S. Senate delegation will drop from 14 to just 10 in 2019. This marks the fourth consecutive election with a decline. This is also just one above the historically low value* of nine split delegations set in 1955-56.

The chart below, from a Pew Research study, shows the totals by state for the past fifty years, ending before this year's midterms. After Democrat Doug Jones won a 2017 special election in Alabama, 14 states had a split delegation.

The 2018 midterm elections saw five states move off that list, with one added. Democratic incumbents in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota were defeated as was the Republican incumbent in Nevada. All five of those states moved to a single-party delegation. Interestingly, these were the only five incumbents to lose re-election. The open seat in Arizona was a Democratic gain; that will now have one Senator from each party. As a result, in 2019, 22 states will have two Republican Senators and 18 states will have two Democratic Senators. 

* Since direct election of U.S. Senators began after the passage of the 17th Amendment in 1913. There were 48 states from 1913 until 1959. Independents are counted separately, even if caucusing with a major party.


Democrat TJ Cox Projected Winner in California 21; Party Gained 40 Seats in Midterms

November 28, 2018

Democrat TJ Cox is the projected winner in California's 21st congressional district, defeating incumbent Republican David Valadao.  This was the final House race to be called. Democrats have a net gain of 40 seats, and will hold a 235-200 edge on the GOP when the new House is seated during the first week of January.

Almost all media outlets had initially called the race for Valadao, who led by 8% on election night. However, his lead steadily shrunk as more votes were counted, and these same outlets were forced to retract that call. Cox took the lead for good two days ago.

California 21st District Results

Seven of California's 53 congressional districts sided with Hillary Clinton in 2016 while re-electing a GOP member of Congress. All seven of these districts were flipped to the Democrats this year. That party will now hold 46 of those 53 seats. This spreadsheet shows the change in partisan composition by state as a result of the midterm election.

Related: 2018 House Interactive Map - Actual Results

 


GOP Wins Mississippi Runoff, Will Control Senate by 53-47 Margin in 2019

November 28, 2018

Mississippi Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith won the state's special election runoff Tuesday. Appointed when former Sen. Thad Cochran resigned last spring, Hyde-Smith will now serve out the remainder of his term. The seat will be up again in 2020.

With this result, the 2018 Senate elections have come to a close. The GOP maintains control, with a net gain of two seats in the midterm elections. They will go into 2019 with a 53-47 edgea. Overall, six seats changed hands. Republicans won seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota, while Democrats were able to take the seats in Arizona and Nevada.  

Note that you may hear that Republicans gained one seat (not two) during this election cycle. This is accurate, with the difference attributable to the 2017 special election in Alabama that saw a Democratic gain.

Click the image below to see the results for all 35 elections. We also have an interactive version of the 2018 actual results

Looking Ahead

For those that have asked, look for the 2020 Senate interactive map during the first quarter of 2019. 


All else equal, 2018 was a difficult year for Democrats, as the party had to defend 26 of the 35 seats that were contested (25-8 excluding special elections). Things will be somewhat reversed in the next two cycles, with Republican having to defend over 60% of the seats up in 2020 and again in 2022. As 2018 saw a two-seat gain for the GOP, the 2024 cycle will go from 25-8 Democrats to 23-10a.

Note that the GOP number of 22 in 2020 includes a special election in Arizona. The winner will complete the final two years of the seat previously held by Sen. John McCain, who died in 2018. That seat is currently excluded from the 2022 counts.

aIndependent Senators in Maine and Vermont caucus with the Democratic Party


Mississippi U.S. Senate Runoff Election: Overview & Live Results

November 26, 2018

The final seat in the U.S. Senate will be decided today as Mississippi holds a runoff election. Polls close at 7:00 PM local time (8:00 PM Eastern). Live results will be available in the table below after that time. Reload the page for the latest totals.

The runoff is between Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and her Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Mike Espy. It was necessitated when none of the four candidates in the November 6th special election received a majority of the vote.

Hyde-Smith was appointed by Gov. Phil Bryant, taking office after former Sen. Thad Cochran resigned this past April. The winner of today's runoff will serve the remainder of Cochran's term. The seat is next up for a full six-year term in the 2020 election.

Outlook  

Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is favored in this deep-red state. However, the race appeared to tighten after several racially tinged controversies involving Hyde-Smith arose. Both parties added resources, and President Trump headlined two election-eve campaign rallies

Although Espy and Hyde-Smith were within 0.5% in the November 6th vote, the two GOP candidates together totaled nearly 58% - a 17 point margin over Espy. Interestingly, the party totals that day were nearly identical to Trump's 57.9% to 40.1% win over Clinton in 2016. The only subsequent poll, taken last week, gave Hyde-Smith a 54% to 44% edge in the two-person runoff.

Regardless of the outcome, the GOP will retain control of the Senate in 2019. The party will have 53 seats if Hyde-Smith wins, which would be a net gain of two in the 2018 elections.

 


GOP Wins GA-7, While CA-21 is now Too Close to Call

November 21, 2018

Incumbent Rob Woodall prevailed by 433 votes after a recount in Georgia's 7th congressional district. At the time, this was the final uncalled race and it appeared Democrats would have a 234-201 advantage in January when the new House is seated.

However, late today, our results partner Decision Desk HQ retracted their earlier call of a GOP win in California's 21st congressional district. They say that race is now too close to call.

"Rep. Valadao’s lead has shrunk from over 4,900 and 8% on 11/7 to just over 400 with thousands of additional ballots left to count in areas favoring Cox. It is still quite possible for Valadao to hold his seat, but if he does, it will be by a very, very slim margin, certainly not the margin inferred on election night."

California 21st District

As a result, the day ends as it began, with Democrats holding a 234-200 edge, and one race undecided.


Ben McAdams Projected Winner in UT-04; 39th Pickup for Democrats

November 20, 2018

Our results partner, Decision Desk HQ has called Utah's 4th congressional district for Ben McAdams. This is the 39th pickup for the Democratic Party. Only one race - Georgia's 7th district - remains uncalled.  Republican incumbent Rob Woodall is favored here; but the challenger Carolyn Bourdeaux has requested a recount.

Assuming Woodall wins in Georgia, the new House will begin with 234 Democrats, 201 Republicans. This gives Democrats 16 more than the 218 needed to control the chamber.

Incumbent Republican Will Hurd Wins TX-23 as Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones Concedes

November 19, 2018

Republican Will Hurd has won a 3rd term in the 23rd congressional district of Texas.  While, the vote remains very close, his Democratic challenger Gina Ortiz Jones conceded on Monday.

As of this writing, the race hasn't officially been called by the Associated Press or our results partner, Decision Desk. However, we have updated our 2018 Actual Interactive Map to reflect the expected outcome.

 
Two other races remain uncalled, GA-7 and UT-4. The Georgia race has already been certified, with Republican incumbent Rob Woodall the apparent winner. However, the Democratic challenger, Carolyn Bourdeaux will request a recount given the very small margin that separates the two. In Utah, incumbent Republican Mia Love pulled ahead of Democrat Ben McAdams on Friday. There are about 34,000 provisional ballots left to be counted, with the candidates separated by just 419 votes.

Bill Nelson Concedes in Florida; GOP up 52-47 with Mississippi Runoff Upcoming

November 18, 2018

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson conceded the Florida Senate race Sunday afternoon. Gov. Rick Scott prevailed after two rounds of recounts. Republicans have secured 52 Senate seats compared to 47 for Democrats, ensuring the party maintains control of the chamber. The Mississippi runoff election will decide the final seat.

Six of the 34 races completed resulted in a victory for the out-party. Republicans picked up four of those wins, Democrats two. Click the image below to see all the results; you can then click any of the state for vote totals from that race. We also have an interactive version of the 2018 actual results.

The Mississippi runoff is scheduled for Tuesday, November 27th. Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is favored in this deep-red state. However, with both parties adding resources, and Donald Trump planning two election-eve rallies, the race is looking more competitive than originally expected. Much of the tightening can be traced back to an offhand comment Hyde-Smith made about lynchings as well as her unwillingness to address the controversy it caused.



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