Election News

_{¹Portions of the Aleutian Islands close at 1:00 AM}

U.S. House Special General Election

Alaska At-Large District

Before we get to the primaries, there is a special election to fill the vacancy in Alaska's at-large congressional district.. The winner will complete the term of Don Young (R), who died in March.

48 candidates competed in the June primary. The top four advanced to the special general election. Sarah Palin, the former governor and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, finished first with 27% of the vote. Fellow Republican Nick Begich III had 19%. Independent candidate Al Gross was third with 13%, and Democrat Mary Peltola took the final spot with 10%. Gross subsequently dropped out. 

This election will be decided by ranked choice voting. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, the third place finisher will be eliminated. The second choice of that candidate's voters will be allocated to the remaining two candidates. That will give one of them a majority and a seat in the U.S. House.

Mail-in ballots from overseas voters will be accepted until August 31. The ranked choice runoff will not be conducted until all ballots are counted, making it unlikely that the winner will be known before that time.

The only recent public poll points to a tight election. Peltola earned 41% support. The two Republicans evenly split the other 59% - they were separated by just one respondent! The survey also modeled both Republicans in the ranked choice round. In a Begich vs. Peltola scenario, Begich led by 55% to 45%. The Begich vs. Palin scenario was much closer, with Peltota leading 51% to 49%. That is within the poll's margin of error. 

Wyoming

U.S. House At-Large District (Republican)

Rep. Liz Cheney faces a challenge from a Trump-endorsed attorney, Harriet Hageman. Ousting Cheney, who has played a very visible role as vice chair of the January 6 committee, has been a top priority for the former president.

The RealClearPolitics average of two recent polls shows Hageman at 55%, nearly double the 29% support of the incumbent.

Cheney is the last of ten House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump to face primary voters. If she loses, only two of those will be on the ballot in November. 

Alaska

The top four finishers in each of these all-party primaries will advance to the general election, which will be conducted using ranked choice voting.

U.S. Senate

One of seven GOP Senators who voted to convict Trump in January, 2021, Lisa Murkowski is seeking a fourth term. The former president, looking to defeat her, endorsed Republican Kelly Tshibaka late last year. She is the former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration.

Murkowski and Tshibaka are both expected to advance to the general election, but the primary will be an early test of their individual support. Two other candidates from the very large field will also move on.

Governor

Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy is seeking a second term. He has nine challengers on the primary ballot, including his predecessor, independent Bill Walker. Both are expected to advance, along with Democratic former State Rep. Les Gara. It is unclear who will take the fourth and final spot.

U.S. House At-Large District

While Alaskans can select up to three candidates in the ranked choice special election, they will be limited to just one choice from the 20+ candidates in the regular primary election to hold the state's at-large district for the next two years.

All three special election candidates are on the ballot and seem likely to advance. The fourth spot will probably go to Republican Tara Sweeney, who finished fifth in the special primary in June. (Sweeney's supporters attempted to get her added to the special general election ballot after Al Gross withdrew, but were unsuccessful.)

Upcoming

• August 23
  • Florida Primary
  • New York Primary
    • U.S. House and State Senate; other primaries were June 28
  • Oklahoma Primary Runoffs
  • New York U.S. House Districts 19 and 23 Special Elections
• September 6
  • Massachusetts Primary
• September 13
  • Delaware Primary
  • New Hampshire Primary
  • Rhode Island Primary
• November 8
  • Election Day
  • Indiana U.S. House District 2 Special Election

Elections in Hawaii are largely vote-by-mail, with all registered voters receiving a ballot approximately 18 days before the election. Ballots can also be returned at Voter Service Centers, which also accommodate in-person voting. All ballots, regardless of how submitted, must be received by 7:00 PM local time (1:00 AM Sunday, Eastern Daylight Time). 

All Hawaii Results >>

Use the link above for all results. Of most interest are the open Democratic primaries for Governor and Congressional District 2. 

Governor (Democratic)

Democratic Gov. David Ige is completing his second term; he is ineligible to run due to term limits. There are seven candidates seeking the nomination. Leading the field is Lt. Gov. Josh Green. A Mason-Dixon poll from mid-July showed him with 55% of the vote. Other notables include businesswoman and former First Lady of Hawaii Vicky Cayetano and Rep. Kai Kahele (HI-02). They received 19% and 16%, respectively, in the poll. 

U.S. House District 2 (Democratic)

As noted above, freshman incumbent - and part-time pilot - Kai Kahele (D) is running for governor. There are seven candidates on the ballot. The frontrunners are State Rep. Patrick Branco and former State Sen. Jill Tokuda. 

Upcoming

• August 16
  • Alaska Primary
  • Wyoming Primary
  • Alaska U.S. House At-Large District Special Election
• August 23
  • Florida Primary
  • New York Primary
    • U.S. House and State Senate; other primaries were June 28
  • Oklahoma Primary Runoffs
  • New York U.S. House Districts 19 and 23 Special Elections
• September 6
  • Massachusetts Primary
• September 13
  • Delaware Primary
  • New Hampshire Primary
  • Rhode Island Primary
• November 8
  • Election Day
  • Indiana U.S. House District 2 Special Election

Democrats control the House with 220 seats. Republicans now have 211.

There are four vacancies to be filled by special election.

_{* Party of prior incumbent}

U.S. House Special General Election

Minnesota District 1

Before we get to the primaries, there is a special election to fill the vacancy in Minnesota's 1st Congressional District. The winner will complete the term of former Republican Rep. Jim Hagedorn, who died in February.

In the May primary, businessman Jeff Ettinger easily won the Democratic nomination. For the Republicans, former State Rep. Brad Finstad edged out State Rep. Jeremy Munson. Although Hagedorn only narrowly won his seat in 2018 and again in 2020, Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden here by 10 points. That margin might better reflect the partisan lean of the district. As such, Finstad is favored in the special election.

Finstad and Munson will also be on the ballot for a rematch in the regular District 1 GOP primary.

U.S. Senate

Seats in Connecticut, Vermont, and Wisconsin are up for election this year. Only Wisconsin's race looks to be competitive in November. 

Connecticut (Republican)

Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal was renominated for a third term at the party's convention in May. Three Republicans are vying for the party's nomination. Donald Trump stepped in with a last-minute endorsement of businesswoman Leora Levy. The other prominent candidate is former State House Minority Leader Themis Klarides, who did not vote for Trump's reelection. 

Regardless of which Republican advances, Blumenthal is favored to win in November. 

Vermont: First elected in 1974, Democratic Sen. Pat Leahy is retiring after eight terms. Despite the deep blue lean of the state today, he is the only Democrat that Vermonters have ever elected to the Senate. That will almost certainly change in November. There are three Democrats looking to succeed Leahy, with Rep. Peter Welch the overwhelming favorite.

Wisconsin (Democratic)

Republican Ron Johnson is seeking a third term. He faces a minor primary challenge. On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is expected to be the nominee after all his prominent opponents withdrew and endorsed him in the closing weeks of the campaign. Those candidates - State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, and Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson - remain on the ballot.

Looking ahead to November, Barnes led Johnson by two points, well within the margin of error, in a late June Marquette poll.

Governor

All four states have gubernatorial elections this year.

Connecticut: Nominees were chosen at party conventions. Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont is seeking a 2nd term. The GOP nominee is businessman Bob Stefanowski. This is a rematch of the 2018 election, which Lamont narrowly won, 49% to 46%.

Minnesota: Democratic Gov. Tim Walz is seeking a second term. He faces nominal primary opposition. On the Republican side, former State Sen. Scott Jensen was endorsed at the party's May convention. He has two nominal primary opponents. Most forecasters rate the general election Leans or Likely Democratic.

Vermont: One of two states (New Hampshire is the other) where gubernatorial terms are two years in length. Republican Gov. Phil Scott faces nominal primary opposition and will be a heavy favorite in November. Nonprofit excecutive Brenda Siegel will be the Democratic nominee.

Wisconsin (Republican)

Wisconsin is expected to hold the most competitive general election gubernatorial election among these four states. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has no primary opposition as he seeks a second term.

There are four Republicans vying for the nomination, the frontrunners are former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and businessman Tim Michels. The wealthy Michels was a late entrant to the race in April, spending heavily via self-funding. He also won the endorsement of Trump. 

The primary looks like a true toss-up. The two recent public polls were well within the margin of error.

With current Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes running for Senate, Evers will have a new running mate this year. That will most likely be State Assemblywoman Sara Rodriguez. In Wisconsin, lieutenant governor nominees are chosen in separate primaries, after which the two run together as a single ticket for the general election. 

U.S. House

Minnesota District 1 (Republican)

As discussed above, this is a rematch of the May special election primary that Finstad won by about 400 votes. After conceding, Munson had said he would endorse Finstad and not run, but switched course and entered on the last day of filing.

While this primary is being conducted with redistricted boundaries, there is about a 90% overlap between the old and new version of District 1, so it is largely the same set of voters that nominated Finstad. It would be a bit surprising if he were to win the special election but lose this primary.

Minnesota District 5 (Democratic)

'Squad' member Ilhan Omar faces a centrist primary challenge from former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels.

Vermont At-Large (Democratic)

Eight-term Democratic Rep. Peter Welch is retiring to run for U.S. Senate. Vermont is one of six states with a single at-large district. It is also the only state that has never sent a woman to Congress. That will almost certainly change this year.

The leading Democratic candidates are State Senate President Pro Tem Becca Balint and Lt. Gov. Molly Gray. Balint appears to be the frontrunner after consolidating progressive support behind her, including an endorsement last month from Sen. Bernie Sanders.

The winner will be an overwhelming favorite over whichever Republican emerges as the nominee.

Wisconsin District 3 (Republican)

Democrat Ron Kind is retiring after narrowly winning a 13th term in 2020 against Derrick Van Orden, a retired Navy SEAL. Van Orden is unopposed for the GOP nomination. Four Democrats are looking to replace Kind. Most forecasters rate the general election 'Leans Republican', making Van Orden a slight favorite to flip the district as the general election gets underway. 

State Assembly

Wisconsin District 63 (Republican)

Last week in Arizona, State House Speaker Rusty Bowers lost his primary bid for State Senate. Bowers had been dismissive of Trump's efforts to overturn his narrow 2020 loss in the state. As a result, Trump endorsed former State Sen. David Farnsworth who crushed Bowers by 65% to 35%.

This week Trump is looking to oust Republican Assembly Speaker Robin Vos for pretty much the same reason in another state he narrowly lost. The former president has endorsed Adam Steen. 

Upcoming

• August 13
  • Hawaii Primary
• August 16
  • Alaska Primary
  • Wyoming Primary
  • Alaska U.S. House At-Large District Special Election
• August 23
  • Florida Primary
  • New York Primary
    • U.S. House and State Senate; other primaries were June 28
  • Oklahoma Primary Runoffs
  • New York U.S. House Districts 19 and 23 Special Elections
• September 6
  • Massachusetts Primary
• September 13
  • Delaware Primary
  • New Hampshire Primary
  • Rhode Island Primary
• November 8
  • Election Day

On the ballot are primaries for governor, as well as U.S. House and State Legislature. Use the link below for all results. 

All Tennessee Results >>

U.S. House District 5 (Republican)

This is the only race we're closely watching. Long-time incumbent Democrat Jim Cooper decided to retire after the boundaries of the district shifted from one where Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by a 24% margin to one Trump would have won by 12%. The Legislature accomplished this by dividing Nashville into three during the redistricting process. 

Nine Republicans are seeking the nomination and a likely win in the general election. The leading candidates include former Tennessee House Speaker Beth Harwell, Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles, and Kurt Winstead, a retired Tennessee National Guardsman who has had the most fundraising success. The Democratic nominee will be State Sen. Heidi Campbell.

Upcoming

• August 9
  • Connecticut Primary
  • Minnesota Primary
  • Vermont Primary
  • Wisconsin Primary
  • Minnesota U.S. House District 1 Special Election
• August 13
  • Hawaii Primary
• August 16
  • Alaska Primary
  • Wyoming Primary
  • Alaska U.S. House At-Large District Special Election
• August 23
  • Florida Primary
  • New York Primary
    • U.S. House and State Senate; other primaries were June 28
  • Oklahoma Primary Runoffs
  • New York U.S. House Districts 19 and 23 Special Elections
• September 6
  • Massachusetts Primary
• September 13
  • Delaware Primary
  • New Hampshire Primary
  • Rhode Island Primary
• November 8
  • Election Day

On this page, we'll provide an overview of some of the more interesting races. Use the links below to see all results. Poll closing (Eastern Time) appears below the state name. If you are voting in one of these states, check with your polling place as the hours may differ.

_{¹Mountain Time Zone locations close at 9:00 PM Eastern
²Central Time Zone locations close at 9:00 PM Eastern
³State Senate and House only}

Kansas Constitutional Amendment: Separately, Kansas voters will determine if abortion is enshrined in the state constitution. Live Results >>

Special and Mayoral Elections: Finally, there are State Senate special elections in Kansas and Washington, as well as a mayoral election in Chandler, Arizona. Live Results >> 

U.S. Senate

Arizona (Republican)

Sen. Mark Kelly (D) is seeking a full term after winning 2020 special election. Donald Trump endorsed businessman Blake Masters in early June, propelling him to frontrunner status over businessman Jim Lamon in subsequent polling. Attorney General Mark Brnovich is also on the ballot.

Missouri (Republican)

Sen. Roy Blunt (R) is retiring, with a field of about 20 on the primary ballot looking to succeed him. The nominee will likely be one of Attorney General Eric Schmitt, former Gov. Eric Greitens, or Rep. Vicky Hartzler (MO-04). Schmitt has moved into the lead in recent polling. 

Expected to endorse Greitens, Donald Trump instead limited his election eve endorsement to 'ERIC'. That was enough for both Greitens and the frontrunner Schmitt to claim the endorsement. Perhaps Trump meant Eric McElroy, a little-known candidate also on the ballot.

There's also a large field vying for the Democratic nomination, with Trudy Busch Valentine or Lucas Kunce the likely nominee. However, the general election is likely out of reach for the party unless the controversial Greitens emerges as nominee.

Governor

Arizona (Republican)

Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is term-limited. The Democratic nominee is expected to be Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. The GOP contest features Trump-endorsed former news anchor Kari Lake and businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who is endorsed by Mike Pence. 

Michigan (Republican)

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is seeking a second term. Her path to reelection was made somewhat easier when several leading GOP candidates were disqualified from the primary ballot. 

Five Republicans did qualify for Tuesday's election, including conservative commentator Tudor Dixon, who received a late endorsement from Donald Trump. Dixon has had a double-digit lead in polling over the race's final week.

Secretary of State

Arizona (Republican)

Incumbent Katie Hobbs (D) is running for governor. Two Democrats are vying for the party's nomination.

Most focus will be on the GOP side, which includes a proxy war between Trump and Ducey.  Trump has endorsed State Rep. Mark Finchem, a proponent of election fraud conspiracy theories, while Ducey is backing businessman Beau Lane. There are two other candidates on the ballot, with a recent poll showing nearly 3 in 4 GOP voters undecided.

U.S. House

Six incumbents, including three of the 10 Republicans that voted to impeach Trump, are at risk in the five primaries listed below. One Democrat is guaranteed to lose in Michigan, where there is a member vs. member primary due to redistricting. 

Arizona District 1 (Republican)

Rep. David Schweikert (R) is being challenged by Elijah Norton, a self-funding businessman.

Michigan District 3 (Republican)

Rep. Peter Meijer, one of 10 House Republicans to vote for impeachment, is at risk of being ousted by Trump-endorsed candidate John Gibbs, a former Assistant HUD Secretary. Democratic-aligned groups are piling on - to the dismay of some in the party - as a Gibbs win would likely improve the prospects of Hillary Scholten (D), who lost to Meijer by six points as the 2020 nominee. 

Michigan District 11 (Democratic)

Reps. Andy Levin and Haley Stevens will face each other in a member vs. member contest created by redistricting. While several incumbents are at risk on August 2, one is guaranteed to lose their job here. Levin is the more progressive of the two. That includes vocal support for Palestinian human rights, a position that has put him at odds with some pro-Israel groups in this district with a large Jewish community. 

Washington District 3 (Top Two)

Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler is seeking a 7th term. One of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, she has drawn several challengers from the right, including Joe Kent, endorsed by the former president. There are also two Democrats on the ballot.

Washington District 4 (Top Two)

Rep. Dan Newhouse (R), who also supported impeachment, has drawn a challenge from Trump-endorsed Loren Culp, who lost to Jay Inslee (D) in the 2020 gubernatorial race. There are six other Republicans and one Democrat on the ballot.

There are a number of other U.S. House primaries of interest Tuesday. See all results for: Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington.

State Senate

Arizona District 10 (Republican)

We rarely feature a state legislative race, but this one bears watching. Arizona State House Speaker Rusty Bowers is term-limited in that chamber; he's seeking a promotion to the State Senate.

Bowers has been dismissive of Trump's efforts to overturn his narrow 2020 loss in the state. This earned him the enmity of the former president and many of his GOP colleagues. The Arizona Republican Party censured Bowers in July after he testified before the January 6 commission. Trump has endorsed former State Sen. David Farnsworth in the primary.

Upcoming

• August 4
  • Tennessee Primary
• August 9
  • Connecticut Primary
  • Minnesota Primary
  • Vermont Primary
  • Wisconsin Primary
  • Minnesota U.S. House District 1 Special Election
• August 13
  • Hawaii Primary
• August 16
  • Alaska Primary
  • Wyoming Primary
  • Alaska U.S. House At-Large District Special Election
• August 23
  • Florida Primary
  • New York Primary
    • U.S. House and State Senate; other primaries were June 28
  • Oklahoma Primary Runoffs
  • New York U.S. House Districts 19 and 23 Special Elections
• September 6
  • Massachusetts Primary
• September 13
  • Delaware Primary
  • New Hampshire Primary
  • Rhode Island Primary
• November 8
  • Election Day

If a majority votes 'Yes', in support of the amendment, it will give the Republican-controlled State Legislature the opportunity to enact new restrictions on abortion. A 'No' vote would maintain the status quo.

Polls close at 7:00 PM local time, which is 8:00 PM Eastern Time, except 9:00 PM Eastern for those areas observing Mountain Time. 

Anyone registered to vote, including independents, can vote on the ballot measure. However, according to Vox.com, "[t]he timing [of the intitiative] is intentional: Republican lawmakers placed the measure on the August primary ballot instead of into the November general election in hopes that turnout remains low. Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state roughly two to one."

That strategy may backfire - at least somewhat - as the importance of the issue to many voters is driving increased turnout. A single public poll on the ballot measure from mid-July indicated the vote will be close. 'Yes' led 'No' by 47% to 43%.

Text of the Ballot Initiative

Republican Ronald Ryckman was appointed by the party to fill the seat in advance of the special election. He is unopposed in the primary, as is Jose Lara on the Democratic ballot.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. The special general election will take place November 8.

Washington District 27

District 27 is based in Tacoma. The special election is to complete the term of Democrat Jeannie Darneille, who resigned last November.

Democrat Yasmin Trudeau was appointed by the Pierce County Council to fill the seat in advance of the special election. She has two GOP opponents in the all-party primary.

Polls close at 11:00 PM Eastern Time. The top two finishers will advance to the special general election on November 8.

Mayor

Chandler, Arizona

Chandler is the 76th largest city in the United States,^{1 1}City rankings are based on July 1, 2021 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of about 280,000.  The mayor is Kevin Hartke who is seeking a second term; he was opposed in 2018.

Hartke is being challenged by Ruth Jones in this nonpartisan contest.

In Chandler municipal primaries, a candidate that gets a majority of the vote is elected. Since there are only two candidates on the ballot, that is guaranteed to happen here.

Polls close at 10:00 PM Eastern Time.

Contested this year:

• 35 U.S. Senate seats, including one special election
• All 435 U.S. House seats, most contested under redistricted boundaries
• 36 governorships
• All or a portion of the State Senate chamber in 43 states
• State House chamber in 45 states

For those looking ahead, there are 828 days until the 2024 presidential election, scheduled for November 5, 2024.

Arizona

Kansas

In addition to the race listed below, there is a question on all ballots that will let voters decide whether to amend the State Constitution to specify that it does not contain a right to abortion. It is the first time abortion has been put in front of voters since the Supreme Court's decision in the Dobbs case.

Michigan

Missouri

Washington

The state holds all-party primaries, with the top two finishers advancing to the general election.