Election News

Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards Wins Re-election in Louisiana

November 16, 2019

Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards has won a 2nd term in Louisiana. 

As polls predicted, the election was very competitive, but Edwards is now projected to finish ahead of GOP businessman Eddie Rispone.



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Louisiana Election Results

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Louisiana Gubernatorial Election: Overview and Live Results

November 16, 2019

The runoff election for Louisiana governor takes place on Saturday, November 16. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Bel Edwards is seeking a 2nd term. He faces off against Republican businessman Eddie Rispone. Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time. Live results will appear below after that time.

This is a very competitive race. Edwards has a one point lead in the Real Clear Politics average. That is consistent with the toss-up rating assigned by most forecasters. Sabato's Crystal Ball does see a small edge for the incumbent, and moved the race to Leans Democratic the other day. You can read their analysis of the race here.

Saturday's election is a top-two runoff, necessitated when no candidate received a majority of the vote in the state's all-party primary on October 12. Edwards ended up at about 47%. Rispone and GOP Rep. Ralph Abraham split most of the remainder of the vote, with Rispone finishing slightly ahead. 

While the polling may ever so slightly favor Edwards, Saturday's vote could still go either way. In Rispone's favor is the fact that the two main Republicans combined for 51% of the total vote in the primary and, of course, Louisiana is a deep red state. President Trump also held a rally for Rispone in Bossier City earlier in the week.

This is the last of three gubernatorial elections in 2019, all competitive races in Republican strongholds. The parties have split the other two races, with the GOP prevailing in an open seat contest in neighboring Mississippi.  Democrats flipped the seat in Kentucky, defeating the incumbent. There will be 11 gubernatorial elections in 2020


Matt Bevin Concedes Kentucky Gubernatorial Race

November 14, 2019

Republican Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin has conceded the governor's race to his Democratic challenger, Attorney General Andy Beshear. Bevin, who trailed by about 5,000 votes in the Election Day count, had requested a recanvass of the vote. That was done Thursday, with a change of only one vote. Beshear will be sworn in on December 10.

We've updated the 2019-2020 consensus Governor Interactive Map to reflect the Kentucky result, as well as the GOP win in Mississippi. 

This Saturday, the final gubernatorial race of 2019 will be decided, as Louisiana holds a runoff election. Incumbent Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is seeking a 2nd term. He's opposed by the Republican nominee, businessman Eddie Rispone. Polling has shown a very tight race, but most surveys give Edwards a 2-3% lead. This Mason-Dixon poll is reflective of that.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern on Saturday. Visit 270toWin for live results.


Ten Candidates Have Qualified for Next Week's Democratic Debate

November 14, 2019

Ten Democrats have qualified for the 5th Democratic debate, to be held on November 20 in Atlanta. The event will be hosted by MSNBC and The Washington Post and broadcast live from 9:00 PM to 11:00 PM Eastern Time. 

Those making the stage include former Vice President Joe Biden; New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker; South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg; Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard; California Sen. Kamala Harris; Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar; Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders; businessman Tom Steyer; Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren; and entrepreneur Andrew Yang. 

Update:  The candidates will appear in this order, from left to right on stage:  Booker, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Warren, Biden, Sanders, Harris, Yang and Steyer.

Neither Texas resident that participated in October's debate will be in Atlanta. Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro did not meet the Democratic National Committee's polling requirements, although he did cross the donor threshold.  Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke withdrew from the race on November 1.

Looking ahead, the final debate of 2019 will be held on December 19 in Los Angeles*. It will be hosted by PBS and Politico. At this point, six of the ten candidates in next week's debate have met the DNC's more stringent qualifying criteria.

* Originally scheduled for the campus of UCLA, the debate has been moved to Loyola Marymount University.


Mark Sanford Suspends Presidential Campaign

November 12, 2019

Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford's brief challenge to President Trump has ended.  Sanford, who had announced his campaign for the GOP nomination in early September, said Tuesday that he was suspending that effort

Sanford was averaging less than 2% in limited national polling.  Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld and former U.S. Rep. Joe Walsh remain in the race, but are also seeing little traction against an incumbent president who enjoys broad support within the Republican party.


Former Gov. Deval Patrick Considering Presidential Bid

November 11, 2019

Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick is reportedly considering a late entry into the 2020 Democratic field. The news comes days after former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg filed to run in Alabama's March primary.  Both individuals had previously decided against running in 2020, but both apparently see an opening despite the historically large number of candidates already in the race.

The filing deadline for New Hampshire's February 11 first-in-the-nation primary is this Friday. Given the proximity to his state, it would seem likely that Patrick would register for this contest if he is serious about jumping in to the race.


GOP Rep. Peter King of New York Will Retire; District Seen as Competitive in 2020

November 11, 2019

Rep. Peter King of New York announced he will not seek re-election in 2020. He is in his 14th term, representing the state's 2nd district, which covers parts of the south shore of Long Island.  King is one of only two GOP representatives in downstate New York; Lee Zeldin's 1st district covers the remainder of Long island to the east.

In a statement posted to Facebook, King said he wanted to spend more time with his family. It is notable that his 2018 election win was by just 6 points; he had never previously won re-election by fewer than 12 points. The district voted for Donald Trump by 9 points in 2016, after preferring Barack Obama by 5 points in 2012. Given the loss of incumbency and the overall political climate, the district is expected to be more closely-contested in 2020. Sabato's Crystal Ball has changed its rating from Likely to Leans Republican, with a hint that it could be a toss-up later on.  We expect other forecasters to update their ratings earlier this week.

King is the 20th current GOP member to retire; 8 Democrats have also announced they will not run for re-election in 2020.


Michael Bloomberg Expected to File Paperwork for Alabama Primary

November 7, 2019

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is expected to file paperwork to qualify for the Alabama Democratic primary in advance of the state's Friday deadline.  The filing doesn't mean he is going to jump into the race, but it is clearly under serious consideration. 

Bloomberg's spokesman Howard Wolfson said "We now need to finish the job and ensure that Trump is defeated — but Mike is increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well positioned to do that". He went on to say that "If Mike runs he would offer a new choice to Democrats built on a unique record running America’s biggest city, building a business from scratch and taking on some of America’s toughest challenges as a high-impact philanthropist.”

Although Alabama's primary isn't until March 3 (Super Tuesday), it is the state with the earliest filing deadline.  


Democratic Rep. Pete Visclosky of Indiana to Retire

November 6, 2019

Rep. Pete Visclosky of Indiana announced his retirement Wednesday. Now in his 18th term, he's the third most senior Democrat in the U.S. House. Visclosky chairs the defense appropriations panel, overseeing a budget of over $700 billion.

Visclosky represents Indiana's first district, a fairly safe Democratic district in the northwestern part of the state, including Gary. Hillary Clinton won this district by about 13 points in 2016.

27 current House members have announced they won't seek re-election in 2020. This includes 19 Republicans and 8 Democrats.


Democrats Win Virginia General Assembly; Will Control Redistricting

November 6, 2019

Democrats took control of Virginia's General Assembly in Tuesday's elections, flipping both the Senate and the House of Delegates. This gives the party its first trifecta* since 1993Democrats erased a two-seat GOP edge in both chambers, 

In addition to controlling all levers of state government, the win gives Democrats control over the redistricting process after the 2020 Census. For more on this, see this article on the importance of Tuesday's General Assembly elections in Virginia.

* Control of both branches of the state legislature and the governorship.



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