270toWin Redesign

2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination

1,990 Pledged Delegates Needed to Win on 1st Ballot

The content on this page, including the map, has been updated to include an estimated 211 bonus delegates. Date and delegate information is preliminary and subject to change. The Democratic Party will nominate a 2020 presidential candidate at its convention in Milwaukee the week of July 13, 2020. Primary and caucus events will go through mid June.

Estimated Delegates Earned

Delegate counts will be available beginning with the Iowa Caucus on February 3, 2020. A majority of the estimated 3,979 pledged delegates (1,990+) are needed to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot. An estimated 766 additional automatic delegates (superdelegates) will not participate on the first ballot (unless the nomination is uncontested). This is a significant change from 2016.

The map below shows the number of delegates each state will send to the Democratic convention. You can view pledged or total delegates. Click a state to see available polling.

MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC
AS
GU
MP
PR
VI
DA
February Super Tues March 4-31 April May June
Contests 4 16 13 11 7 6
Delegates 155 1,358 1,091 853 300 222
% Delegates 3.9% 34.1% 27.4% 21.4% 7.5% 5.6%
Cumulative % 3.9% 38.0% 65.4% 86.9% 94.4% 100%

Democratic contests allocate delegates in some manner proportional to popular vote, subject to a 15% minimum to receive any delegates. Information is estimated and subject to change. Some states have an extended process for choosing delegates; the time used on the map is generally the start of the process. Select a state on the map for more detail. Special thanks to Greenpapers and FHQ for making it a lot easier to aggregate the data. Visit those sites for the finer details of the state-by-state allocation rules.

National Polls

The results of national polling for a preferred Democratic nominee is shown below. While these national polls are directionally interesting, the nominee will ultimately be chosen based on delegates earned during state-by-state primary and caucus votes.

Source Date Sample Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Bloomberg Yang Klobuchar Booker Steyer Gabbard Castro Bennet Williamson Delaney Patrick Other
Poll Averages* 27.8% 18.6% 16.6% 9.6% 4.6% 3.4% 2.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% -
The Economist/YouGov 12/11/2019 497 LV 26% 16% 21% 11% 4% 3% 2% 3% 1% 3% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 8%
Quinnipiac 12/10/2019 665 RV ±3.8% 29% 17% 15% 9% 5% 4% 3% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 10%
Monmouth University 12/10/2019 838 RV ±3.4% 26% 21% 17% 8% 5% 3% 4% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 11%
Morning Consult 12/09/2019 15,442 RV ±1% 30% 22% 16% 9% 6% 4% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% -1%
The Economist/YouGov 12/04/2019 541 LV 27% 13% 18% 12% 3% 2% 3% 3% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 13%
Morning Consult 12/02/2019 15,773 RV ±1% 29% 20% 15% 9% 5% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 6%
CNN / SSRS 11/27/2019 431 RV ±5.7% 28% 17% 14% 11% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 16%
Quinnipiac 11/26/2019 574 RV ±4.9% 24% 13% 14% 16% 3% 2% 3% 2% 0% 1% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 18%
SurveyUSA 11/26/2019 1,088 LV ±3.6% 30% 17% 15% 11% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% - - - 1% 11%
Morning Consult 11/25/2019 8,102 RV ±1% 30% 21% 15% 9% 2% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 7%
Show:

* The average includes the most recent poll from each source within the past 30 days, up to a maximum of five. If five polls are found, and there are other qualifying polls on that same calendar date, those will also be included.