Election News

Texas 6th District Special Election Scheduled for July 27

May 13, 2021

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has set July 27 as the date for the special election to fill the vacancy in the state's 6th congressional district. The seat has been open since Republican Rep. Ron Wright died in February. 

This suburban Dallas district was decided by only nine points last November, opening up the possibility that Democrats could contest for the seat. However, two Republicans advanced in the May 1 all-party primary, ensuring a GOP hold.

Updated Schedule of Special Elections

GOP Rep. Steve Stivers (OH-15) will resign effective May 16, after which Democrats will hold a 219-211 advantage, with five vacancies. 

With TX-6 now scheduled, dates are set for special elections in all five of these seats. Although the candidates aren't yet known in all cases, all of these seats are expected to stay with the incumbent party. As a result, once the House returns to full strength (assuming no other changes along the way), the composition should match the results of the 2020 House elections:  222 Democrats, 213 Republicans.

Date District 2020  Information
June 1 NM-1 D + 16% Deb Haaland (D) resigned in March to become Secretary of the Interior. Nominees are State Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D) and State Sen. Mark Moores (R)
July 27 TX-6 R + 9% Ron Wright (R) died in February. Two Republicans advanced in the May 1 all-party primary, ensuring a GOP hold. They are Wright's widow, Susan, and State Rep. Jake Ellzey. A date for the runoff has not yet been set.
November 2 OH-11 D+60% Marcia Fudge (D) resigned in March to become Secretary of HUD. Primaries will be held August 3.
November 2 OH-15 R+27% Steve Stivers (R) to resign May 16 to become CEO of Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Primaries will be held August 3.
Jan. 11, 2022 FL-20 D+57% Alcee Hastings (D) died in April. Primaries will be held November 2.

 

 

Update on U.S. House Vacancies After Swearing In of Troy Carter

May 12, 2021

Democrat Troy Carter was sworn into office Tuesday as the new representative of Louisiana's 2nd congressional district. Carter won a special election to succeed former Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) who resigned in January to join the Biden Administration.

The U.S. House now has 219 Democrats, 212 Republicans and four vacancies. However, the number of vacancies will return to five later this week when GOP Rep. Steve Stivers (OH-15) steps down

Dates have been scheduled for special elections in four of these seats. Although the candidates aren't yet known in all cases, all of these seats are expected to stay with the incumbent party. As a result, once the House returns to full strength (assuming no other changes along the way), the composition should match the results of the 2020 House elections:  222 Democrats, 213 Republicans.

Date District 2020  Information
June 1 NM-1 D + 16% Deb Haaland (D) resigned in March to become Secretary of the Interior. Nominees are State Rep. Melanie Stansbury (D) and State Sen. Mark Moores (R)
TBA TX-6 R + 9% Ron Wright (R) died in February. Two Republicans advanced in the May 1 all-party primary, ensuring a GOP hold. They are Wright's widow, Susan, and State Rep. Jake Ellzey. A date for the runoff has not yet been set.
November 2 OH-11 D+60% Marcia Fudge (D) resigned in March to become Secretary of HUD. Primaries will be held August 3.
November 2 OH-15 R+27% Steve Stivers (R) to resign May 16 to become CEO of Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Primaries will be held August 3.
Jan. 11, 2022 FL-20 D+57% Alcee Hastings (D) died in April. Primaries will be held November 2.


Note that redistricting will not directly affect any of these elections. That is, they will all be contested using the current district boundaries.

Overview and Live Results: Mayoral Elections in Omaha and Anchorage

May 11, 2021

On Tuesday, voters in Omaha and Anchorage will elect mayors. Both elections are officially nonpartisan, shown as NPA in the results.

Mayoral Elections

City rankings are based on July 1, 2019 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.

Omaha, Nebraska

Omaha is the 40th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 480,000. The current mayor is Republican Jean Stothert. She is seeking a 3rd four-year term. In 2017, Stothert was reelected with about 53% of the vote. 

The top two vote getters advanced from the primary held on April 6. In that election, Stothert finished first with just under 57% of the vote. The four other candidates - all Democrats - split the remainder. RJ Neary finished second overall, with about 15.5%

Here's an overview of the election from the Omaha World-Herald. Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

Anchorage, Alaska (runoff)

Anchorage is the 69th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 288,000. The acting mayor is independent Austin Quinn-Davidson. She was appointed by the Assembly after the elected mayor, Democrat Ethan Berkowitz resigned in October, 2020. 

A large field competed in the April 6 election to succeed Quinn-Davidson, who chose not to run for a full three-year term. As no candidate exceeded 45% of the vote, the top two finishers moved ahead to Tuesday's runoff. Advancing were Republican David Bronson, who saw 33% support, and Democrat Forrest Dunbar who received 31% of the vote.

Here's an overview of the election from the Anchorage Daily News. This is a vote-by-mail election, with an option to return the ballot via drop box. The drop box deadline is 8:00 PM local time (midnight Eastern). 

 

Upcoming May 18

  • Pennsylvania State Senate Districts 22 and 48 Special General Elections
  • Pennsylvania State House Districts 59 and 60 Special General Elections
  • California State Assembly District 54 Special Primary Election

New York Times Endorses Kathryn Garcia for NYC Mayor

May 11, 2021

The New York Times Editorial Board has endorsed Kathryn Garcia for NYC mayor. Garcia is the former Commissioner of the Department of Sanitation, serving from 2014 to 2020. While the general election isn't until November, the party primaries are upcoming on June 22. In this deep blue city, winning the Democratic primary is the largest hurdle to being elected.

In its endorsement, the Times says that "All of the candidates in the June 22 Democratic primary are concerned with the welfare of their city and have thoughtful ideas about how to better it. It is Kathryn Garcia who best understands how to get New York back on its feet and has the temperament and the experience to do so. Ms. Garcia has our endorsement in perhaps the most consequential mayoral contest in a generation." It goes on to say that "she has a zeal for making government work better."

In addition to Garcia, notables in the Democratic field include (in alphabetical order):

  • Eric Adams, Brooklyn Borough President
  • Shaun Donovan, former Director of U.S. Office of Management and Budget
  • Ray McGuire, a business executive
  • Dianne Morales, a nonprofit executive
  • Scott Stringer, NYC Comptroller
  • Maya Wiley, a civil rights attorney
  • Andrew Yang, an entrepreneur and candidate for president in 2020

These eight candidates will appear in the first Democratic mayoral debate this Thursday, May 13, at 7:00 PM.

These will be the first mayoral primaries conducted with Ranked Choice Voting, an 'instant runoff' measure that was approved by voters for certain elections in a 2019 referendum. Voters can select up to five candidates, ranking them in order of preference.  In round one, each voter's first choice is counted. If one candidate has a majority, that person is the winner. If not, the candidate with the lowest support is eliminated and the second choices on the associated ballots are redistributed to the remaining candidates. If no candidate has a majority, the process repeats until one candidate crosses that threshold. 

To this point, in limited recent polling that simulates ranked choice voting, Andrew Yang has been the first round leader, with support in the mid 20% range. Yang goes on to win in these polls, but not until just two candidates remain (at which time, mathematically, one has to be over 50%).

This video from the NYC Campaign Finance Board has more on how Ranked Choice Voting will work in New York City.

Cincinnati Mayoral Primary Overview and Live Results

May 4, 2021

Cincinnati is the 64th largest city in the United States,1 1City rankings are based on July 1, 2019 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of about 300,000.  Tuesday's all-party mayoral primary will select the two candidates that will meet in the November 2 general election. 

The current mayor is Democrat John Cranley, who is completing his second four year term. He is unable to run due to term limits. There are six candidates on the ballot. While officially nonpartisan (NPA label on the results below), five of the candidates are Democrats; Herman Najoli is an independent. 

There's little clarity on which two candidates will advance to the general election. The top tier candidates are Aftab Pureval, Cecil Thomas and David Mann, with Gavi Begtrup also in the running. Pureval, Hamilton County Clerk of Courts, has raised the most money. Herman Najoli has raised little and did not participate in an online debate last month.

Polls close at 7:30 PM.

A couple notes:

  • An early frontrunner in the race, P.G. Sittenfeld, was arrested on federal corruption charges last November. He was suspended from his city council role in December and withdrew from the race in February.
  • The last Republican to appear on the primary ballot was Brad Wenstrup in 2009. 
  • The last Republican to serve as mayor was Bill Gradison who left office in 1971. In that era - and for the period from 1925-1999 - the mayor was chosen by the City Council.

Upcoming May 11

  • Omaha, Nebraska mayoral general election
  • Anchorage, Alaska mayoral runoff

Rep. Charlie Crist Launches Campaign for Governor of Florida

May 4, 2021

Rep. Charlie Crist (FL-13) announced his entry into Florida's 2022 election for governor. The first notable Democrat in the field, he is hoping to take on GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis and return to the job he once held.

Crist was a Republican when elected governor in 2006, succeeding Jeb Bush who could not run due to term limits. He chose not to stand for reelection in 2010 and instead mounted a campaign for Senate. Trailing Marco Rubio for the nomination, Crist opted to run as an independent, finishing second to Rubio in the general election.

Crist joined the Democratic party in 2012. He was the party's nominee for governor in 2014, losing narrowly to incumbent Republican Rick Scott. In 2016, he successfully ran in Florida's 13th congressional district, and has been reelected twice. 

The Democratic field is expected to get more high profile entrants in the weeks ahead. Fellow Rep. Val Demings (FL-10) and Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried have both expressed interest in the race.

The 13th district is on the Pinellas Peninsula on Florida's west coast. It includes St. Petersburg and Clearwater. The state will gain a congressional district in upcoming redistricting. As a result, the boundaries of this district are likely to change for the 2022 election.

Crist is the 12th current House member to announce they are leaving at the end of this term. 

Overview & Live Results: Texas 6th Congressional District Special Election

May 1, 2021

Voters in Texas' 6th congressional district head to the polls Saturday to fill the vacancy created when GOP Rep. Ron Wright died in February. His widow, Susan is on the ballot, as are 22 other candidates in this all-party primary.  If no candidate gets a majority of the vote - which seems pretty likely given the size of the field - a top two runoff election will follow. The date for that runoff will be announced after it is determined that one is needed.

Related:  Five Texas cities hold mayoral elections Saturday. Live Results >>

Donald Trump endorsed Susan Wright earlier this week. However, that came after the conclusion of early voting, so the impact may be more muted than if it had occurred earlier. Separately, on the eve of the election, a robocall to district residents accused Wright of causing her husband's death.

Polling for the race has been limited, with no candidate breaking from the pack, and undecided generally 'leading'. In addition to Susan Wright, the ballot features Democrat Jana Sanchez, who lost to Ron Wright in 2018. Others seeing support of 5% or more in polls include Republicans Jake Ellzey and Brian Harrison, as well as Democrats Lydia Bean and Shawn Lassiter.  For more on the dynamics of the contest, see this FiveThirtyEight overview.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

The Texas 6th district is a suburban district in the southern portion of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. It includes parts of Arlington, which is also holding a mayoral election on Saturday. While leaning Republican, the district has become more competitive in recent cycles. Donald Trump won here by 12 points in 2016, a margin that fell to 3 points in 2020. Wright was elected to a 2nd term by about 9 points in November. 

Of the congressional special elections on tap this year, this one has the most potential to be competitive. Of course, for that to happen, we will need one Democrat and one Republican to advance to the runoff. In a field this large, with so many undecided voters, that is no sure thing.

 

 

Live Results: Mayoral Elections in San Antonio, Fort Worth and Three Other Texas Cities

May 1, 2021

On Saturday, Texans in five of the nation's 100 largest cities will elect a mayor. These are non-partisan (NPA) all-party primaries. In each race, if no candidate gets a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will meet in a June 5 runoff election. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Related: Texas 6th Congressional District Special Election.  Live Results >> 

Mayoral Elections

City rankings are based on July 1, 2019 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.

San Antonio

San Antonio is the 7th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 1.5 million. The current mayor is independent Ron Nirenberg. He was elected to a second two-year term with about 51% of the vote in 2019. That was a top two runoff against Greg Brockhouse. 

14 candidates are on the ballot, including Nirenberg and Brockhouse. If a June 5 runoff is required, it would likely be a rematch between these two men.  

 

Fort Worth

Fort Worth is the 13th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 900,000. The current mayor is Republican Betsy Price, who is completing her 5th two-year term. She is not standing for reelection. 

10 candidates are on the ballot. The most prominent appear to be Brian Byrd, Mattie Parker, Deborah Peoples and Ann Zadeh. 

 

Arlington

Arlington is the 49th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 400,000. The current mayor is Republican Jeff Williams, who won a third two-year term in 2019. He is unable to run again due to term limits.

There are seven candidates on the ballot. Attorney Jim Ross has spent the most money and has received the endorsement of the current mayor.  

Plano

Plano is the 70th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 300,000. The current mayor is Republican Harry LaRosiliere. He won a second four-year term in 2017 and cannot run due to term limits.

There are three candidates on the ballot

Garland

Garland is the 94th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 240,000. The current mayor is Republican Scott LeMay who was unopposed when he first ran in 2019. LeMay is seeking a second two-year term. He is opposed by Roel Garcia. As there are only two candidates on the ballot, no runoff election will be needed. 

Upcoming May 4

  • Mayoral Primary in Cincinnati, Ohio

Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos Not Running for Reelection

April 30, 2021

Illinois Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos announced Friday that she would not seek a 6th term in Congress next year.  

Bustos led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2020. The party lost about 12 seats, significantly underperforming expectations. Bustos was only narrowly reelected herself, defeating Republican Esther King by about 4%.

The Illinois 17th district currently covers the northwestern part of the state. The borders for 2022 will shift in the upcoming redistricting, from which the state will emerge with one fewer district. 

 

Rep. Ted Budd Enters North Carolina Senate Race

April 28, 2021

GOP Rep. Ted Budd (NC-13) announced his candidacy for the 2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina.  He becomes the third prominent Republican hoping to succeed retiring fellow Republican Sen. Richard Burr. 

Budd posted a launch video to YouTube.

The race to succeed Burr, who is retiring after three terms, is expected to be among the most closely-contested of the 34 Senate elections to be held in 2022. This comes on the heels of the state's 2020 Senate race, which was the most expensive in history.

Before getting to November, there will also be a fierce battle for the GOP nomination. Budd joins former governor Pat McCrory and former Rep. Mark Walker as announced candidates. Lara Trump has also expressed interest, but the field has been growing in the absence of her decision.

House Retirements

Budd, in his third term, is the second House member to launch a 2022 Senate run this week. On Monday, Democrat Tim Ryan announced he would run in Ohio. Unlike Ohio, which is losing a congressional seat, North Carolina gained one in the Census apportionment data released earlier this week.