Election News

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

Idaho

Pre-Statehood

Through the Revolutionary War and American Independence, much of North America was still unexplored by Europeans or their descendants. This included the territory that would eventually become Idaho. Lewis and Clark first explored the region in 1805 which was, at the time, home to about 8,000 Native Americans.  

Three weeks out from Iowa, the interactive portion of the 2020 Democratic Delegate Calculator is now live.  Starting with the polling average, where available, you can create a forecast for each primary or caucus.  You can also project withdrawal dates for those candidates that you don't think will be around at the end.  The changes you make will be immediately reflected in the delegate estimate for each candidate. 

Select the Based on Custom Calculator tab to create your forecast.

Author Marianne Williamson announced Friday that she is ending her bid for the Democratic nomination.  The news is not unexpected, coming about a week after she laid off her entire campaign staff. 

New Fox News polls in Nevada and South Carolina showed activist Tom Steyer with double-digit support.  His strength in these two surveys has qualified him for the January 14 Democratic debate.  

Steyer is the 6th candidate to qualify. He'll join Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on the stage. The deadline to qualify is Friday; no other candidates are likely to make it.  

GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter of California has submitted his letter of resignation, effective Monday January 13.   The decision was expected; he had previously said he would resign shortly after the holidays.

Hunter guilty in December to a charge surrounding the misuse of campaign funds.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

New York

Last Monday, the Census Bureau released its national population estimates. This is the best resource we have for predicting congressional reapportionment that will take place following the 2020 Census. According to these projections, New York will lose one congressional seat, dropping from 27 to 26. Because Electoral College votes are apportioned to states according to the size of their congressional delegation (senators + representatives), New York will likely have 28 electoral votes in the 2024 and 2028 presidential contests instead of the 29 it has today.

This is not a new trend. At its peak in the 1930s and 1940s, New York had 47 electoral votes. It has lost at least two after every Census from 1950 through 2010. We can look at New York’s history and political legacy to understand why it’s expected to, once again, lose representation in Congress and the Electoral College.

GOP Rep. Phil Roe of Tennessee announced Friday that he will retire at the end of the current Congress. Roe is in his 6th term, and represents the most conservative district in this deep red state.  Donald Trump won here by about 57% over Hillary Clinton in 2016; only five districts across the country had larger Trump margins that year¹.

36 current members of the House have announced they will not run in 2020: 27 Republicans and 9 Democrats.  The number includes Rep. Duncan Hunter (R, CA-50), who is expected to leave Congress early this year.

Former Secretary of Housing & Urban Development (HUD) Julian Castro ended his bid for the Democratic nomination Thursday. The only Latino in the race, Castro had struggled for support, averaging just over 1% in national polls as 2019 drew to a close.

Castro tweeted his announcement with a video of his year on the campaign trail.

It’s with profound gratitude to all of our supporters that I suspend my campaign for president today.

I’m so proud of everything we’ve accomplished together. I’m going to keep fighting for an America where everyone counts—I hope you’ll join me in that fight. pic.twitter.com/jXQLJa3AdC

— Julián Castro (@JulianCastro) January 2, 2020

Castro was mayor of San Antonio from 2009 until 2014, when he was confirmed as HUD Secretary. He served in that position until the end of President Barack Obama's 2nd term in January, 2017.

270toWin Democratic Nomination Content:

2020 Election Calendar

Map with National Polls & State Links

Delegate Calculator (interactive piece expected within next week)

Update:  The Census Bureau released official apportionment data on April 26, 2021.  The data was delayed several months due to the pandemic. In the end, fewer states were impacted than the prior estimate.   Texas gained two seats and Florida one, vs. the three and two previously estimated.  11 other states gained or lost a single seat. Previously expected to lose a seat, there was no change in Alabama, Minnesota and Rhode Island.  Likewise, Arizona did not gain a seat.

This apportionment data also updates the electoral map for 2024 and 2028.

The information below is outdated.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

North Dakota

In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in North Dakota by 36%, greatly expanding upon Mitt Romney’s 20% margin of victory from four years earlier. This 16-point jump is the greatest rightward shift made by any state between 2012 and 2016. To understand how North Dakota, a state with origins in left-wing populism, would become one of the most conservative in the span of 100 years, let’s look back to its origins.

Statehood, Farming, and a Population Boom

Congress originally organized the Dakota Territory in 1861. It was primarily composed of land acquired from France in the 1803 Louisiana Purchase. During the early and mid 1800s, the U.S. traded with, repressed, and eventually drove drove out Native Americans in the territory. In 1870, when the population of northern Dakota was just 2,400, farmers and homesteaders began to move into the territory. By 1880 northern Dakota had 37,000 residents. In 1890, the year after statehood, North Dakota’s population had grown fivefold to 191,000.