Election News

Harris Surges in Post-Debate Poll

June 30, 2019

California Sen. Kamala Harris' debate performance has led to a surge in support according to a new poll from Morning Consult. Harris received 12% from the 2,407 registered Democrats surveyed, doubling her pre-debate level of support.  Most of the gain came at the expense of former Vice President Joe Biden, who lost five points.  Still at 33%, Biden remains well ahead of the field.

The debate didn't seem to move the needle much for the remainder of the field. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, who both saw generally favorable coverage after their first night performance, saw little change in support. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who seemed to come out on the short end of a testy exchange with Castro did see his support fall from 4% to 2%.  

Morning Consult has been conducting a weekly tracking poll of the Democratic field. The current survey was an abbreviated version of that, taken from the conclusion of the debate on June 27 through June 28.

The next Democratic debate will take place on July 30 and 31 in Detroit. It will be hosted and moderated by CNN. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock has qualified, along with the 20 that took place in the just-completed event. However, per DNC rules, a maximum of 20 candidates will be able to participate. If none of the qualifiers withdraws from the race before then, a tiebreaker will take place to eliminate one of them from the debate. 



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Democratic Polling Leaders by State

June 29, 2019

Here's a page where you can see the top 3 polling Democrats in each state. There's at least one poll in 18 states, although it remains limited in most places.  

Select any of the states for more information about its nominating contest, including an estimate of delegates based on the polls.

It's likely that we'll see some shifts in the rankings as the first post-debate polls are released.


Vote Now - Who Won the Final Night of the Democratic Debate?

June 27, 2019

Cast your vote for the winner of night two of the first Democratic debate.  

Click the image below to vote. You'll then be able to view live results.

 


First Democratic Debate Concludes Tonight

June 27, 2019

The 2nd and final night of the first Democratic debate will take place beginning at 9:00 PM in Miami.  Aside from those that will appear on stage, everything will be the same as we noted last night:

The prospective nominees will be placed on stage based on a polling average calculated earlier this month, with those polling highest at the center of the stage.

The debate will be hosted and broadcast by NBC News, MSNBC and Telemundo. Broadcast time is 9:00PM to 11:00PM Eastern. The moderators are Savannah Guthrie, Lester Holt, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and José Diaz-Balart. 

There will be no opening statements. Candidates will have 60 seconds to answer questions and 30 seconds to respond to follow-ups. At the end of the two hours, each candidate can make closing remarks.

Tonight will feature four of the top five candidates in the polls to this point. Here's a New York Times overview of each candidate and some of what to watch for.

Visit 270toWin at the conclusion of the debate to participate in our snap poll of who won the night.


Warren Wins First Night Snap Poll, Ahead of Gabbard and Castro

June 27, 2019

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren was the winner of night one of the first Democratic debate, according to 270toWin visitors participating in a survey. She received just under 34% of the approximately 1,100 valid votes cast*. Hawaii U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard finished 2nd with about 23%, followed by former housing secretary Julian Castro with 14%.

Gabbard was the winner of polls conducted by both Drudge Report and Washington Examiner

* Obvious duplicate votes were discarded


Vote Now - Who Won Night One of the Democratic Debate?

June 26, 2019

Cast your vote for the winner of night one of the first Democratic debate.  

Click the image below to vote. You'll then be able to view live results.

 


First Democratic Debate Begins Tonight

June 26, 2019

The long-awaited first Democratic debate has arrived.  It will take place over two nights in Miami, with 10 candidates appearing each night. The prospective nominees will be placed on stage based on a polling average calculated earlier this month, with those polling highest at the center of the stage.

Here's an excellent New York Times overview of each candidate and some of the dynamics to watch for on night 1.

To get the roster for each night, the candidates were first divided into those polling above 2% and those below. A random drawing was then conducted within each group. Of the five candidates polling nationally at over 5%, only Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren will appear tonight. 

The debate will be hosted and broadcast by NBC News, MSNBC and Telemundo. Broadcast time is 9:00PM to 11:00PM Eastern. The moderators are Savannah Guthrie, Lester Holt, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and José Diaz-Balart. 

There will be no opening statements. Candidates will have 60 seconds to answer questions and 30 seconds to respond to follow-ups. At the end of the two hours, each candidate can make closing remarks.

Visit 270toWin at the conclusion of the debate to participate in our snap poll of who won the night.


NBC Places Candidates for First Presidential Debate

June 18, 2019

The first 2020 presidential debate is eight days out, taking place over two nights on June 26 and 27. Last week, we learned on which night each of the 20 candidates will appear. Now we know where they will stand on the podium. 

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke will be at center stage night one. On the 2nd night, it will be former Vice-President Joe Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.  All candidates were placed based on their qualifying polling average as of June 12.  The higher-polling candidates are closest to the center.

Note that in the graphic below, we use the national polling average as of June 18. This will not exactly match up with the qualifying average, which was based on national and early state polls from a list of highly-rated polling organizations.

The debate will be hosted by NBC News, MSNBC and Telemundo. It will air both nights from 9:00 PM to 11:00 PM Eastern Time.


Rep. Susan Brooks to Retire, Putting a Safe GOP Seat in Play for 2020

June 14, 2019

Republican Rep. Susan Brooks of Indiana's 5th congressional district will not seek a fifth term in 2020. Absent an incumbent, The Cook Political Report and other forecasters have moved this suburban Indianapolis district from 'safe' to a consensus rating of 'lean Republican'. The district has demographic similarities to other affluent districts that have been trending away from the GOP during the Trump era. That said, the president won the district by 12 points over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and will, of course, be seeking a 2nd term in 2020.

Brooks is the 8th current member of the U.S. House to announce a 2020 departure. Five are retiring, while two are running for Senate. Montana's at-large GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte recently announced he would be running for governor.


Groupings for First Democratic Debate

June 14, 2019

The 20 Democratic candidates that qualified for the first presidential debate have been split into two groups.  According to a subsequent tweet by @rubycramer, the Orange group will appear on the first night, June 26. The Purple group, will go on June 27.



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