Election News

New Hampshire Redistricting Complete; Final Shapes Added to Interactive Map


Locate and view your new congressional district. Result includes a side by side map comparison of how the district shape will change. Not yet available for Missouri, New Hampshire, or New York.


Earlier this week, the New Hampshire Supreme Court adopted the congressional redistricting plan submitted by its special master, Nathaniel Persily. The court's action came after the legislature and Gov. Chris Sununu were unable to agree on a new map. 

According to New Hampshire NPR, "The map approved by the court uses a “least change” approach, moving just five towns —Jackson, Albany, Sandwich, Campton and New Hampton — from the 1st District into the 2nd District in order to achieve a balanced population." 

With little geographic change, the partisan lean of the two districts is unchanged; both districts remain highly competitive. This is the outcome desired by the governor. The legislature had sought to make each district more partisan, improving the likelihood of a GOP pick-up in District 1.

The shapes have been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map. The map for 2022 is now complete, barring any changes ordered as a result of active litigation. Given calendar realities, it is becoming less likely that any of those efforts will affect the maps in place for this year's elections.

The current consensus map is below. There are no forecaster ratings yet for New Hampshire. Those districts are shown as a dark gray but are editable. Click the image to create and share your 2022 House forecast.

 

 

 

House Update: Redistricting, Consensus and Competitive Maps, Retirements and Vacancies

Redistricting


Locate and view your new congressional district. Result includes a side by side map comparison of how the district shape will change. Not yet available for Missouri, New Hampshire, or New York.


New Hampshire is the only state without an active map. The latest proposal was approved by the Legislature; Gov. Chris Sununu has not indicated if he will sign it. The Legislature and Governor have been at odds, with Sununu preferring both districts be competitive, as has been the case in the past. The Legislature is attempting to make both district more partisan, to increase the likelihood of a GOP victory in District 1. The State Supreme Court has also weighed in, imposing a June 1 deadline after which the justices will draw the maps.

Litigation remains active in some other states, most notably in Florida. Given calendar realities, it is becoming less likely that any of those efforts will affect the maps in place for this year's elections.

Consensus Map

With New York redistricting complete, forecasters are issuing their initial ratings. The Consensus Map has been updated to reflect these changes.

Competitive Map

We have a blank 2022 map, for those that want to build a forecast from scratch. In the Competitive Map, districts are shown as red or blue except where one or more forecasters has rated the district as something other than 'safe'. As of now, 96 of the 433 districts with ratings fall in that category. These range from true toss-ups to those just barely on the competitive radar. New Hampshire will likely add one or two more, depending on where the line is drawn

Retirements

52 current members of the House - 33 Democrats and 19 Republicans - will not be standing for reelection in November.  17 of those are running for another office, while four have been defeated in party primaries. Click on the map below to see the full list.

Vacancy and Special Election

There are currently 220 Democrats and 208 Republicans in the House, along with seven vacancies.

District Party* Primary General Notes
AK-AL R June 11 August 16 Don Young died in April. About 50 candidates will be on the all-party primary ballot. The top four will advance to the general, which will be conducted using ranked choice voting.
CA-22 R April 5 June 7 Connie Conway (R, 35% of the vote) and Lourin Hubbard (D, 19%) advanced from the all-party primary.
MN-1 R May 24 August 9 Jim Hagedorn died in February. Brad Finstad (R) and Jeff Ettinger (D) won their respective party primaries.
NE-1 R   June 28 Jeff Fortenberry resigned in March. The parties directly nominated Mike Flood (R) and Patty Brooks (D)
NY-19 D   August 23 Anthony Delgado resigned May 25 to become Lt. Gov. of New York. Nominees will be selected directly by the parties.
NY-23 R   August 23 Tom Reed resigned earlier in May. Nominees will be selected directly by the parties.
TX-34 D   June 14 Filemon Vela resigned in March. Two Democrats and two Republicans are on the all-party ballot. If no candidate gets a majority, a runoff will be held at a later date.

* Party of prior incumbent

Overview & Live Results: Primary Day in Georgia, Alabama, and Arkansas; Runoff Elections in Texas

Georgia, Alabama, and Arkansas hold primaries Tuesday. These are all runoff states; the top two finishers will advance to a June 21 runoff if no candidate gets a majority of the vote. Separately, Texas holding runoff elections from the March 1 primary

On this page, we'll highlight and provide results for some of the most compelling contests. Use the links below to see all results. Latest poll closing (Eastern Time) appears below the state name. If you are voting in one of these states, check with your polling place as the hours may differ.

Alabama >> Arkansas >> Georgia >> Texas >> 
8:00 PM  8:30 PM 7:00 PM 8:00 PM*

*Mountain Time Zone locations close at 9:00 PM Eastern

There are also two state legislative special elections and a primary for the vacancy in Minnesota's First Congressional District

State Legislative >> MN-01 Special Primary >>

While you're awaiting the results, check out our new feature that lets you view the congressional district - before and after redistricting - for any U.S. street address. 


U.S. Senate

Alabama (Republican)

The seat will almost certainly remain in Republican control, so all the action is around who the nominee will be. Sen. Richard Shelby is not seeking a 7th term. He has endorsed his former Chief of Staff, Katie Britt. The other prominent names on the ballot are Rep. Mo Brooks (AL-05) and businessman Michael Durant.

None of the three has cleared 40% in this frequently-polled race, so a June top two runoff seems likely. Donald Trump unendorsed Brooks in March, saying he had gone "woke", although the fact that the candidate was sinking in the polls likely was a contributing factor. However, Brooks has seen a resurgence in the campaign's closing weeks, leaving it very much up in the air which two candidates will advance.

Georgia (Republican)

Freshman Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who won a special election in 2020, is seeking his first full six-year term. He faces only a nominal primary challenge before moving on to what is expected to be a competitive general election. 

Entering the race with high name recognition from his days as a star running back for the University of Georgia, as well as an endorsement from Donald Trump, political newcomer Herschel Walker has run far ahead of other candidates for the Republican nomination.

Some in the party are concerned Walker will not make a good general election candidate. To that end, a pair of Republican super PACs set a plan in early April to spend millions attacking Walker in the hope of keeping him below 50%, forcing a runoff. It doesn't look like that effort will be successful; Walker had 66% support in a Fox News poll released last week.

Governor

Alabama (Republican)

Gov. Kay Ivey has drawn eight primary challengers as she seeks a second full term. Despite being solidly conservative, she is facing attacks from opponents positioning themselves even further to the right. The New York Times reported that "Ivey opened herself up to a primary challenge in part by extending a mask mandate in the spring of 2021, when many fellow G.O.P. governors were lifting them."

There's little doubt the winner of the Republican primary here will be elected in November. There's also little doubt Ivey will finish first on Tuesday. What isn't known is whether Ivey will get a majority of the vote and, if she doesn't, who will her opponent be in a June runoff?

The battle for second place appears to be between businessman Tim James, who is the son of former Gov. Fob James, and Lynda Blanchard, former Ambassador to Slovenia. In the final Real Clear Politics average, Ivey had 49%, followed by James with 18% and Blanchard at 14%.

Georgia (Republican)

Gov. Brian Kemp is seeking a second term. He has drawn a primary challenge from former Sen. David Purdue, recruited into the race and endorsed by Donald Trump.

While Purdue has the backing of the former president, not much else has gone well. Kemp is going to finish first, the only question is whether he'll clear 50% to avoid a June runoff.  In the final Real Clear Politics average, Kemp held a 55% to 35% lead.

Secretary of State

Georgia (Both)

This race has taken on a national profile. The incumbent Republican, Brad Raffensperger drew the ire of Donald Trump for declining to help him find the votes needed to overturn the state's 2020 vote for Joe Biden. Trump recruited Rep. Jody Hice (GA-10) to get his revenge.

The only recent public poll, released yesterday by Landmark Communications, showed the race a dead heat. Hice had 39% support, Raffensperger 38%. Notably, both candidates were well below the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.  

The Democratic primary is also of interest, as the general election is seen as competitive. There are five candidates vying for the nomination. State Rep. Bee Nguyen has received most of the endorsements. However, none of the candidates appear well known. In a late April SurveyUSA poll, Nguyen 'led' with 12%, with the other four ranging from 6% to 9%. A full 60% were undecided.

Attorney General

Texas Runoff (Republican)

Ken Paxton is seeking a third term. Despite his legal challenges, He finished first, with 43% of the vote, in the March 1 primary. Land Commissioner George P. Bush, the only member of his dynastic political family now holding public office, finished second with 23%. 

U.S. House

Aside from the below, there are a number of other interesting primaries and runoffs due to retirements or redistricting. Check the full state results linked at the top of this page.

Texas District 28 Runoff (Democratic)

In the March primary - a rematch from 2020 - Rep. Henry Cuellar narrowly led his more progressive challenger, Jessica Cisneros by 49% to 47%. The runoff has drawn increased attention with the leak of a Supreme Court's draft opinion in a closely-watched abortion rights case. Cuellar is the only House Democrat that opposes abortion.

Georgia District 7 (Democratic)

Home to one of the nation's most competitive races in recent cycles, redistricting has made this suburban Atlanta district safely Democratic. At the same time, neighboring District 6 was made safe for the GOP. This has led to a 'win or go home' primary between incumbent Carolyn Bourdeaux and Lucy McBath (current GA-06).

Georgia District 14 (Republican)

Controversial freshman Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has drawn several primary opponents. The most formidable is businesswoman Jennifer Strahan. There hasn't been any recent polling here. Strahan will try and hold Taylor Greene under 50% to force a June runoff.

The nominee will be heavily favored in the general election.

Upcoming

  • June 7
    • California Primary
    • Iowa Primary
    • Mississippi Primary
      • Runoffs, where necessary, on June 28
    • Montana Primary
    • New Jersey Primary
    • New Mexico Primary
    • South Dakota Primary
    • California Congressional District 22 Special Election
    • California State Assembly Districts 62 & 80 Special Election
    • Montana State Senate District 15 Special Primary
    • California Mayoral Primaries: Los Angeles, San Jose, Long Beach, Chula Vista
  • June 11
    • Alaska Congressional At-Large District Special Primary

Live Results: Minnesota Congressional District Special Primary Election

Primaries for the vacant seat in Minnesota's first congressional district are being held Tuesday. The prior incumbent, Republican Jim Hagedorn died in February. Hagedorn was reelected by 3% in 2020, running behind Donald Trump who won by 10% over Joe Biden. The presidential result may better reflect the partisan lean of this largely rural district that stretches across the southern tier of the state

The primary winners will meet in the August 9 special general election, which coincides with the statewide primary. Most forecasters rate the special election Likely or Safe Republican.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

Republican Primary

There are 10 candidates on the ballot including Jennifer Carnahan, Hagedorn's widow and former chair of the Minnesota GOP. Other prominent names include two State Representatives, Jeremy Munson and Nels Pierson as well as former State Rep. Brad Finstad.

Democratic Primary

A field of 8 is seeking the nomination. The most notable appear to be businessman Jeffrey Ettinger and law professor Richard Painter, who was previously a candidate for the party's 2018 U.S. Senate nomination.

Live Results: State House Special Elections in New York and South Carolina

There are two legislative special elections on Tuesday, although only one of them is contested.

New York State Assembly District 58

Democrats hold a large majority in the New York State Assembly. The party controls 105 seats, alongside 43 Republicans and one Independence Party member. Members serve two-year terms. The next regularly scheduled elections will be in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

District 58 is located in Brooklyn. The prior incumbent, Democrat Nick Perry resigned in March to become Ambassador to Jamaica.

There are three candidates on the ballot. Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

South Carolina State House District 18

Republicans hold 80 of 124 seats in the South Carolina State House. Democrats control 43. The next regularly scheduled elections will be in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

District 18 is located in the northwestern part of the state. Republican Tommy Stringer resigned in January, citing health considerations. He had been in the state House since 2006. Stringer was elected to his final term in 2020, winning 74% to 26%.

No Democrat filed for the race. Alan Morgan won the Republican nomination on March 22 and is the only candidate on the ballot. Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.

New York Court Finalizes Congressional Map; Shapes Added to Interactive Map

A New York court finalized the state's new congressional map late Friday night, setting in place the district boundaries to be used over the next decade. The shapes have been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map, leaving New Hampshire as the only state without a new plan in place.

The new map, created by a court-appointed mapmaker, replaces the one enacted into law in early February. That plan, which heavily favored Democrats, was ruled invalid by this same court in late March, setting the process in motion which led to Friday's decision. Due to the delay, the state's congressional primaries were rescheduled to August 23.

The state's current delegation of 19 Democrats and 8 Republicans1 1Includes the vacant NY-23, formerly held by Republican Tom Reed who resigned earlier this month. was on track to move to 22 Democrats and 4 Republicans after the original map was enacted. The state is losing a district following the 2020 Census. According to Cook Political's David Wasserman, the new map includes a larger number of potentially competitive seats, with a wide swing in outcomes possible depending on the environment.

The map below 'rates' the districts as toss-up, leaning, or safe based on Biden vs. Trump 2020 margins for the new districts, as calculated by Politico.

Florida Court of Appeals Reinstates Previously Enacted Redistricting Map

Florida's enacted congressional redistricting plan is back in effect, pending further appeal. The shapes have been added back to the 2022 House Interactive Map

See this article from Florida Politics for more background on the case.

Redistricting Update: Kansas and Missouri Plans Finalized; Added to Interactive Map

Updates on the last few states to complete redistricting. 

Missouri (8 districts): On Wednesday, Gov. Mike Parson (R) signed Missouri's new congressional map into law. The process had been bottlenecked in the Legislature for months, as the GOP-controlled Senate and House could not agree on a proposal. In the end, the new map isn't all that different than the one in place over the last decade. Republicans are expected to maintain a 6-2 edge in the delegation. The new shapes have been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map

Kansas (4): On Wednesday, the State Supreme Court upheld the redistricting plan passed by the Legislature in January. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly's veto was overridden in February, setting the stage for litigation. The new map redistricts part of Kansas City out of District 3, endangering the reelection prospects Sharice Davids, the lone Democrat in the state's delegation. The shapes have been added back to the interactive map.

Florida (28): The bottom line here is that the courts are deciding which of two maps will be effective in 2022. Either is likely to result in a multiple seat gain for Republicans. There is the plan initiated by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and approved by the Legislature in April. The other map would only affect Districts 2-6 across the northern part of the state.

The enacted map was struck down in state court last week; the full ruling that followed instructed the state to use the alternate map drawn by Harvard professor Stephen Ansolabehere. The ruling was stayed on appeal, with the stay then vacated. We are now awaiting a decision by the First District Court of Appeals on which map will be used, although subsequent appeals to the State Supreme Court are possible. 

While the entire map is expected to be litigated, the dispute for 2022 largely centers around the shape of District 5 which stretches across the northern tier of the state. It was shaped that way after court-ordered redistricting prior to the 2016 election and was intended to let Black voters elect a representative of their choice.

New York (26): The state's previously-enacted map was struck down by the Court of Appeals (the state's highest court) late last month. The Court assigned a redistricting expert, Jonathan Cervas to draw a remedial map. The first draft of his map came out earlier this week. The redrawn map is much less favorable to Democrats, who had been hoping to gain as many as three seats with the map they had enacted. It has also generated considerable infighting across the delegation as it would result in member vs. member primaries.

The Cervas map was open for public comments through Wednesday. The Court is expected to implement a final map on May 20. The state's congressional primaries were moved from June 28 to August 23 to accommodate the redistricting delay.

New Hampshire (2): Republican Gov. Chris Sununu and the Republican-controlled Legislature have been at odds over a new map. Sununu wants competitive districts, while the legislators have been attempting to make both districts more partisan, with the goal of flipping District 1. The State Supreme Court has also weighed in, imposing a June 1 deadline after which the justices will draw the maps.

In response, Legislators sent a new proposal to the governor this week, which the governor is reviewing. The latest plan remains favorable to the GOP in District 1, although not to the extent of earlier maps. 

Live Results: Primary Day in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Oregon, Idaho, and Kentucky

Five states hold their primaries Tuesday.  On this page, we'll highlight and provide results for some of the most interesting contests. Use the links below to see all results. Latest poll closing (Eastern Time) appears below the state name. If you are voting in one of these states, check with your polling place as the hours may differ.

Idaho >> Kentucky >> North Carolina >> Oregon >>  Pennsylvania >>
11:00 PM*  7:00 PM+ 7:30 PM 11:00 PM* 8:00 PM

*Mountain Time Zone locations close at 10:00 PM Eastern | +Eastern Time Zone locations close at 6:00 PM

There are also three state legislative special elections and four mayoral primaries.

State Legislative >> Mayoral Primaries >>

While you're awaiting the results, check out our new feature that lets you view the congressional district - before and after redistricting - for any U.S. street address. 


U.S. Senate

There are seats up in all five of these states. However, things look safe Tuesday and in November for the incumbents in Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon.

Pennsylvania (Republican)

Sen. Pat Toomey (R) is retiring. Surgeon and media personality Mehmet Oz has been endorsed by Donald Trump. Until recently, this appeared to be a two-way race between Oz and hedge fund manager David McCormick. However, Kathy Barnette, a conservative commentator, has surged in recent weeks. She has recently been endorsed by the Club for Growth. Trump has subsequently come out against Barnette, saying she would have a hard time winning in November.

Most recent polling shows Oz and Barnette in a statistical tie, with McCormick a close third.

Pennsylvania (Democratic)

Polling in this race hasn't been particularly close, with Lt. Gov. John Fetterman running well ahead of his two main challengers, Rep. Conor Lamb (PA-18) and State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta. However, Fetterman suffered a stroke this past Friday. While Fetterman says "I'm well on my way to a full recovery", the incident did have him off the trail in the campaign's final days and he remained in the hospital on Election Day. The situation does add general election risk in the state seen by some analysts as the best opportunity for a Democratic Senate pick-up this year.

North Carolina (Republican)

Sen. Richard Burr (R) is retiring. Former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley is expected to be the Democratic nominee. On the Republican side, Rep. Ted Budd (NC-13) has emerged from the pack, helped by the endorsement of Donald Trump and large spending on his behalf by the Club for Growth. In the final Real Clear Politics average, Budd has 40% support, former Gov. Pat McCrory has 22% and former Rep. Mark Walker (NC-06) is at 9%. 

Governor

There are elections this year in Idaho, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. 

Pennsylvania (Republican)

Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is term-limited. The state Attorney General, Josh Shapiro, is unopposed for the Democratic nomination. 

In the Republican contest, State Sen. Doug Mastriano appears to have the momentum heading into Election Day. In recent polling, Mastriano is averaging 34% support, with former U.S. Rep Lou Barletta at 20% and U.S. Attorney William McSwain at 15%.

Mastriano was endorsed by Trump this past weekend. Interestingly, Mastriano has aligned himself with Kathy Barnette in the Senate race, who Trump opposes.

Oregon (Both)

Democratic Gov. Kate Brown is term-limited. Both parties have massive primary fields: 19 Republicans and 15 Democrats are vying for the nomination. While the state hasn't had a Republican governor since the 1980s, the races are often fairly competitive: the last race decided by more than a 10% margin was in 1994. Brown was reelected by 6.4% in 2018.

For the Democrats, according to AP, "The two leading candidates are Tina Kotek, a staunch liberal and former speaker of the state House, and Tobias Read, the state treasurer who has positioned himself as a centrist." 

The Republican contest seems more wide open. In the most recent public poll, former State House Minority Leader Christine Drazan had 19% support, followed by former State Rep. Bob Tiernan at 14%, and physician Bud Pierce at 10%. (Pierce was the GOP nominee, losing to Brown, when she was first elected in a 2016 special election). Three others candidates were at 6% or 7%. All of them trailed the 27% of voters that the survey found still undecided.

Idaho (Republican)

Gov. Brad Little is seeking a second term. He is being challenged from the far right by his lieutenant governor, Janice McGeachin. The two have had a fraught relationship. Last year, acting as governor while Little was out of state, McGeachin issued an executive order repealing the state's mask mandate. Little reversed the order upon his return, calling her actions an "irresponsible, self-serving political stunt." 

McGeachin has been endorsed by Donald Trump. Polling has been limited. An April survey showed Little well ahead by 60% to 29%. Assuming Little advances, he'll be the overwhelming general election favorite in one of the nation's reddest states.

U.S. House

Aside from the below, there are a number of other interesting primaries due to retirements or redistricting. Check the full state results linked at the top of this page.

We've chosen these three races because they all involve incumbents facing competitive primaries. 

North Carolina District 11 (Republican)

Dogged by a series of controversies and having lost the support of much of the GOP establishment, freshman incumbent Madison Cawthorn faces seven challengers in his bid for renomination. His strongest opponent is State Sen. Chuck Edwards. The size of the field could save Cawthorn, as a first place finish that clears 30% will avoid a runoff. 

Idaho District 2 (Republican)

Much like Gov. Brad Little, 12-term incumbent Michael Simpson is facing an intraparty challenge from the right. Attorney Bryan Smith, who challenged Simpson in 2014, is back for another try. Smith says that Simpson "has become a fossil and a relic to his constituents", while noting the state has "turned farther to the right" while Simpson has "veered to the left." 

Oregon District 5 (Democratic)

Seven-term incumbent Kurt Schrader faces a strong challenge from the left in Jamie McLeod-Skinner, an attorney. In a break from usual protocol, McLeod-Skinner has been endorsed by the Democratic parties in many of the counties that comprise this redrawn district. 

Unlike NC-11 and ID-02, this district is expected to have a competitive general election as well.

Live Results: May 17 Legislative Special Elections

There are a handful of legislative special elections on Tuesday. Those in Oregon and Pennsylvania coincide with the statewide primary, while South Carolina's is standalone. That state's primary is June 14.

Pennsylvania State Senate District 5

Republicans hold a 28-20 edge over Democrats in the Pennsylvania State Senate. There is one independent. Members serve staggered four-year terms; half the seats are up for election in November. Nominees are being chosen in Tuesday's statewide primaries using redistricted boundaries.

District 5 is located in Philadelphia. Democrat John Sabatina Jr. was elected as a judge of the Philadelphia Court of Common Pleas last November and vacated the seat upon assuming that office. Sabatina was unopposed for reelection in 2020. He defeated his GOP opponent by 67% to 32% in 2016.

The nominees are Democrat Jimmy Dillon and Republican Sam Oropeza. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

South Carolina State House District 97

Republicans hold 79 of 124 seats in the South Carolina State House. Democrats control 43. There are two vacancies. The next regularly scheduled elections will be in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

District 97 is located northwest of Charleston. Republican Mandy Kimmons resigned in December to focus on her legal practice. Kimmons was first elected in 2018, when she flipped the district, defeating incumbent Democrat Patsy Knight by 54% to 46%. Her margin of victory widened to 62%-38% in 2020.

The nominees are Republican Robby Robbins and Democrat ReZsaun Lewis. Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.

A special election for the District 18 vacancy will take place next Tuesday. Not much suspense there: Republican Alan Morgan is the only candidate on the ballot.

Oregon State Senate District 18 (Primary)

Democrats hold an 18-11 margin over Democrats in the Oregon State Senate. Members serve staggered four-year terms; half the seats are up for election in November. For those November elections, nominees are being chosen in Tuesday's statewide primaries using redistricted boundaries.

Senate District 18 extends southwestward from Portland. Long-time incumbent Ginny Burdick resigned last November to accept an appointment from Gov. Kate Brown (D). Democrat Akasha Lawrence-Spence was appointed to the position and will serve until a winner is determined in the November 8 special general election.

Alisa Blum and State Rep. WInsvey Campos are competing for the Democratic nomination. Kimberly Rice faces no opposition for the Republican nomination. Polls close at 11:00 PM Eastern Time.