Election News

There's little clarity on which two candidates will advance to the general election. The top tier candidates are Aftab Pureval, Cecil Thomas and David Mann, with Gavi Begtrup also in the running. Pureval, Hamilton County Clerk of Courts, has raised the most money. Herman Najoli has raised little and did not participate in an online debate last month.

Polls close at 7:30 PM.

A couple notes:

• An early frontrunner in the race, P.G. Sittenfeld, was arrested on federal corruption charges last November. He was suspended from his city council role in December and withdrew from the race in February.
• The last Republican to appear on the primary ballot was Brad Wenstrup in 2009. 
• The last Republican to serve as mayor was Bill Gradison who left office in 1971. In that era - and for the period from 1925-1999 - the mayor was chosen by the City Council.

Upcoming May 11

• Omaha, Nebraska mayoral general election
• Anchorage, Alaska mayoral runoff

The Democratic field is expected to get more high profile entrants in the weeks ahead. Fellow Rep. Val Demings (FL-10) and Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried have both expressed interest in the race.

The 13th district is on the Pinellas Peninsula on Florida's west coast. It includes St. Petersburg and Clearwater. The state will gain a congressional district in upcoming redistricting. As a result, the boundaries of this district are likely to change for the 2022 election.

Crist is the 12th current House member to announce they are leaving at the end of this term. 

Donald Trump endorsed Susan Wright earlier this week. However, that came after the conclusion of early voting, so the impact may be more muted than if it had occurred earlier. Separately, on the eve of the election, a robocall to district residents accused Wright of causing her husband's death.

Polling for the race has been limited, with no candidate breaking from the pack, and undecided generally 'leading'. In addition to Susan Wright, the ballot features Democrat Jana Sanchez, who lost to Ron Wright in 2018. Others seeing support of 5% or more in polls include Republicans Jake Ellzey and Brian Harrison, as well as Democrats Lydia Bean and Shawn Lassiter.  For more on the dynamics of the contest, see this FiveThirtyEight overview.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

The Texas 6th district is a suburban district in the southern portion of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. It includes parts of Arlington, which is also holding a mayoral election on Saturday. While leaning Republican, the district has become more competitive in recent cycles. Donald Trump won here by 12 points in 2016, a margin that fell to 3 points in 2020. Wright was elected to a 2nd term by about 9 points in November. 

Of the congressional special elections on tap this year, this one has the most potential to be competitive. Of course, for that to happen, we will need one Democrat and one Republican to advance to the runoff. In a field this large, with so many undecided voters, that is no sure thing.

Mayoral Elections

City rankings are based on July 1, 2019 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.

San Antonio

San Antonio is the 7th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 1.5 million. The current mayor is independent Ron Nirenberg. He was elected to a second two-year term with about 51% of the vote in 2019. That was a top two runoff against Greg Brockhouse. 

14 candidates are on the ballot, including Nirenberg and Brockhouse. If a June 5 runoff is required, it would likely be a rematch between these two men.  

Fort Worth

Fort Worth is the 13th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 900,000. The current mayor is Republican Betsy Price, who is completing her 5th two-year term. She is not standing for reelection. 

10 candidates are on the ballot. The most prominent appear to be Brian Byrd, Mattie Parker, Deborah Peoples and Ann Zadeh. 

Arlington

Arlington is the 49th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 400,000. The current mayor is Republican Jeff Williams, who won a third two-year term in 2019. He is unable to run again due to term limits.

There are seven candidates on the ballot. Attorney Jim Ross has spent the most money and has received the endorsement of the current mayor.  

Plano

Plano is the 70th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 300,000. The current mayor is Republican Harry LaRosiliere. He won a second four-year term in 2017 and cannot run due to term limits.

There are three candidates on the ballot. 

Garland

Garland is the 94th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 240,000. The current mayor is Republican Scott LeMay who was unopposed when he first ran in 2019. LeMay is seeking a second two-year term. He is opposed by Roel Garcia. As there are only two candidates on the ballot, no runoff election will be needed. 

Upcoming May 4

• Mayoral Primary in Cincinnati, Ohio

Bustos led the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2020. The party lost about 12 seats, significantly underperforming expectations. Bustos was only narrowly reelected herself, defeating Republican Esther King by about 4%.

The Illinois 17th district currently covers the northwestern part of the state. The borders for 2022 will shift in the upcoming redistricting, from which the state will emerge with one fewer district. 

The race to succeed Burr, who is retiring after three terms, is expected to be among the most closely-contested of the 34 Senate elections to be held in 2022. This comes on the heels of the state's 2020 Senate race, which was the most expensive in history.

Before getting to November, there will also be a fierce battle for the GOP nomination. Budd joins former governor Pat McCrory and former Rep. Mark Walker as announced candidates. Lara Trump has also expressed interest, but the field has been growing in the absence of her decision.

House Retirements

Budd, in his third term, is the second House member to launch a 2022 Senate run this week. On Monday, Democrat Tim Ryan announced he would run in Ohio. Unlike Ohio, which is losing a congressional seat, North Carolina gained one in the Census apportionment data released earlier this week.

The District 145 vacancy was created by the resignation of Democrat Patricia Miller on March 8. Miller had won a special election for an open State Senate seat the prior week.

The major party candidates are Democrat Corey Paris and Republican J.D. Ospina. 

State House Special Primary Election Runoff

Alabama District 73 (GOP)

Leigh Hulsey and Kenneth Paschal advanced by being the top two finishers in the March 30 primary. Neither received the majority needed to avoid the runoff.  The winner will meet Democrat Sheridan Black in the July 13 special general election.

Upcoming May 1

• Five Texas mayoral elections: Arlington, Fort Worth, Garland, Plano and San Antonio
• Special election for the vacant 6th congressional district in Texas

I'm running for U.S. Senate to fight like hell to cut workers in on the deal. pic.twitter.com/O1hkLdS1up

— Tim Ryan (@TimRyan) April 26, 2021

Ryan is in his 10th term in the House, the last five of which have been representing the Youngstown area 13th district. His 2020 reelection margin of victory was 7.5%, the smallest of his congressional career.  Earlier in that 2020 cycle, he was a candidate for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination but gained little traction. 

Ohio will lose a congressional district in upcoming redistricting, giving it 15 for the next decade. After reaching a peak of 24 districts during the 1960s, the state has lost at least one in each subsequent Census.

If the 2024 election were to mirror that of 2020, the result would be 303-235 instead of 306-232. 

In the end, only 13 states saw a shift in congressional districts. Texas gained 2, and Florida 1. Earlier estimates had those states gaining 3 and 2, respectively. 11 other states gained or lost a district. Three states expected to lose a district - Alabama, Minnesota and Rhode Island - did not. Likewise, Arizona did not gain a district.

Congressional District 2

This New Orleans area seat has been empty since Democrat Cedric Richmond resigned in January to join the Biden administration. In the all-party primary held March 20, no candidate received a majority of the vote, forcing today's election. Democratic State Sens. Troy Carter and Karen Carter Peterson (no relationship) were the top two finishers: Carter received 36% support to 23% for Peterson. 

Carter has won the endorsement of Richmond as well as a number of current members of Congress. Peterson has seen more endorsements from the progressive wing of the party, including Stacey Abrams and Elizabeth Warren. We've seen no polling for this runoff.

There are currently 218 Democrats and 212 Republicans in the House, with five vacancies. The newest member, Republican Julia Letlow, assumed office on April 14. She won Louisiana's 5th district special election outright - with 65% of the vote - on March 20.  Once the District 2 winner is seated, the Democratic edge will grow by one.

The next congressional special election is on May 1 in TX-6. It is an all-party primary for the vacancy created when Republican Ron Wright died in February. That is likely to result in a top two runoff on a date to be announced. An additional vacancy will occur on May 15, when Republican Steve Stivers (OH-15) resigns. 

State House District 82

The 105 member Louisiana State House has 67 Republicans, 35 Democrats and 2 independents. The next regularly scheduled election is 2023. The District 82 vacancy occurred with the resignation of Republican Charles Henry on January 12. Two Republicans, Edwin Connick and Laurie Schlegel, advanced in the March 20 all-party primary.