Texas kicks off the primary season on Tuesday, March 1, with North Carolina up the following week. There's a lull after that until May, when 11 states hold their primaries. June and August are the busiest months.
The calendar includes each state's primary date, as well as the date for runoff elections, for those states that require them when certain thresholds are not met.
There are 433 days until the November 8, 2022 midterm elections; grab a countdown clock here.
There are two state house special elections Tuesday.
California
State Assembly District 18
There are 80 seats in the California State Assembly. The body is dominated by Democrats, who control 60 seats. This includes the vacancy that will be filled in Tuesday's special election.
The open District 18 seat is in the Oakland area, entirely within Alameda County. The vacancy was created in April when Democrat Rob Bonta resigned after being confirmed as California Attorney General.
Tuesday's special election is to fill the vacancy in District 10, located between Dallas and Waco. The former incumbent, Republican Jake Ellzey, resigned after winning a July 27 special election runoff in the Texas 6th congressional district.
This has been a solidly GOP district over the past decade, with no Democrats challenging for the seat until 2018. Ellzey won in 2020 with about 76% of the vote.
Under Texas special election law, there were no primaries. All eight candidates, including five Republicans, are competing on a single ballot.
Consistent with the lean of the district, two of those Republicans appear to be the frontrunners. John Wray served three terms as this district's representative before Ellzey; he did not run in 2020. Brian Harrison ran in the 6th congressional district special election; he did not make the runoff.
If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, a runoff will be held on a date to be announced.
Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.
Upcoming
September 7:
Alabama State House District 78 Special Election
New Hampshire State House Hillsborough District 7 Special Election
New Hampshire State House Cheshire District 9 Special Primary
St. Petersburg, Florida is the 85th largest city in the United States,11City rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of just under 260,000. Tuesday's all-party mayoral primary will select the two candidates that will meet in the November 2 general election, unless one candidate receives a majority of the vote. In that case, that person is elected mayor.
The current mayor is Democrat Rick Kriseman, who is completing his second four year term. He is unable to run due to term limits. There are eight candidates on the ballot. While officially nonpartisan (NPA label in the results table below), five of the candidates are Democrats, two Republican and one is an independent.
St. Pete Polls has conducted a number of polls on the race for FloridaPolitics.com; the most recent of which was released on August 21. Two months ago, four candidates seemed viable. However, subsequent surveys have seen support gravitate toward two of them.
Former Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch (D) led the most recent poll with 37%, while City Council member Robert Blackmon (R) had 27%. Democratic City Council member Darden Rice was third with 17%. With Welch recently consolidating Democratic support, Rice has an uphill climb to finish second. No other candidate saw double-digits. The poll included 542 likely voters, with a 4.2% margin of error.
The poll also surveyed the general election, where Welch had a 53% to 29% edge on Blackmon. If he were to win, Welch would be the first Black mayor in the city's history.
Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time.
Upcoming
August 31:
California State Assembly District 18 Special Election
Texas State House District 10 Special Election
September 7:
Alabama State House District 78 Special Election
New Hampshire State House Hillsborough District 7 Special Election
New Hampshire State House Cheshire District 9 Special Primary
Democrat Kathy Hochul was sworn in as New York's 57th governor shortly after midnight Tuesday. While continuing a legacy dating back to George Clinton in 1777, she has made history by becoming the state's first female governor.
Hochul succeeds Andrew Cuomo who resigned after nearly 11 years in the position. Cuomo had announced his departure two weeks ago, after a report detailing his sexual harassment of multiple women was released by the state attorney general's office.
California has published a voter's guide for the September 14 gubernatorial recall election. It includes arguments from the recall proponents as well as one from Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom. There are also statements from many of the 46 candidates hoping to replace Newsom if he is recalled.
A vote-by-mail ballot will be sent to all active registered voters in California. There will also be in-person early voting. Polls are open on Election Day from 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM Pacific Time.
There is one 'yes or no' question on the ballot: "Shall GAVIN NEWSOM be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?"
Below that question is a list of the candidates to replace Newsom if he is recalled. Voters can select one of those names or write in someone else. Voters can select 'no' on the recall question and still choose a replacement.
If a majority (50%+1) of the recall question votes are 'yes', Newsom will be removed from office and replaced with the replacement candidate receiving the highest number of votes.
Polling
Most polling has narrowly favored keeping Newsom in office. In terms of a replacement, conservative talk show host Larry Elder has led most surveys, seeing support in the low 20% range. Other notable Republicans in the race include:
John Cox, businessman who lost to Newsom in the 2018 election.
Kevin Faulconer, former mayor of San Diego
Ted Gaines, member of the State Board of Equalization and former state legislator
Caitlyn Jenner, reality TV personality
Kevin Kiley, state assemblyman
Doug Ose, former U.S. Rep. who ran for governor in 2018. Ose dropped out earlier this week after suffering a heart attack. He remains on the ballot.
The most notable Democrat in the race is YouTube influencer Kevin Paffrath. At the urging of Newsom's campaign, Democrats with political experience largely stayed on the sidelines. This strategy may backfire, opening the door for a Republican governor in one of the nation's bluest states, should Newsom be removed.
Turnout is going to be key. From the New York Times: "The vote is expected to come down to whether Democrats can mobilize enough of the state's enormous base to counteract Republican enthusiasm for Mr. Newsom's ouster."
Regardless of how this turns out, California is one of 36 states with a regular gubernatorial election in 2022. If Newsom is removed and replaced by a Republican, that person will almost certainly be an underdog in the race for a full term.
There are 36 seats in the Connecticut Senate. At present, there are 23 Democrats and 12 Republicans. Connecticut is one of 12 states where Senators serve two-year terms; the next regularly scheduled elections are in 2022.
District 36 is located in the southwestern corner of the state. It is a highly affluent area, with median household income of twice the state average. The State Senate seat was vacated on June 22, when Democrat Alex Kasser resigned for personal reasons.
The major party nominees on the ballot are Alexis Gevanter (D) and Ryan Fazio (R). Fazio was the GOP nominee in 2020, losing to Kasser by 51% to 49%. Also on the ballot is independent John Blankley.
Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.
The district has trended a bit more Democratic over the past decade, culminating with Kasser's victory11In 2018, she was known as Alex Bergstein. over five-term incumbent Republican L. Scott Frantz in 2018. She became the first Democrat to win the seat since 1930.
Democratic Rep. Ron Kind, the senior member of the Wisconsin congressional delegation, won't seek reelection next year. Kind narrowly won a 13th term in 2020, beating Republican Derrick Van Orden by less than 3%. This represented quite a shift: Kind had won by 20% in 2018, and actually ran unopposed in 2016.
The Wisconsin 3rd district was one of just seven nationally that voted for Donald Trump in 2020, while electing a Democratic representative. Trump won here by about 5%.
Absent the incumbent and with Van Orden running again, the district becomes an even stronger pick-up opportunity for the GOP next year.
Kind's district covers the southwestern part of the state, bordering Minnesota, Iowa and a small portion of Illinois. These boundaries may change in the upcoming redistricting, although a significant shift is not anticipated.
16 current members of the House - 8 from each party - have announced they are retiring or running for another office in 2022.
Days after a report detailing his sexual harassment of eleven women was released, Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced his resignation as governor of New York Wednesday. The resignation will be effective in 14 days.
Cuomo's discussion about his pending departure begins at about 12:00 in the video from an address he made late Wednesday morning.
Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, also a Democrat will become the 57th - and first female - governor of the state when she takes over.
I agree with Governor Cuomo's decision to step down. It is the right thing to do and in the best interest of New Yorkers.
As someone who has served at all levels of government and is next in the line of succession, I am prepared to lead as New York State’s 57th Governor.
If Cuomo had not resigned, he faced the prospect of removal from office by the state legislature.
2022 Election
New York is one of 36 states with a gubernatorial election in 2022. Cuomo had previously announced he would run for a fourth term. As a result, no Democrats have yet joined the race. On the GOP side, Rep. Lee Zeldin (NY-1), 2014 GOP gubernatorial nominee Rob Astorino, and Andrew Giuliani announced their candidacies earlier this year, hoping that a Cuomo weakened by multiple scandals would create an opening for a Republican despite the deep blue lean of the state. The last Republican governor of the state was George Pataki, who served three terms after defeating Cuomo's father, Mario, in the 1994 election.
As expected, Rep. Conor Lamb (PA-17) is launching his 2022 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate campaign Friday.
Lamb rose to prominence by narrowing winning a special election to flip a long-held Republican congressional seat in 2018. He joins a field of prominent Democrats hoping to win the nomination. This includes the state's Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta and County Commissioner Val Arkoosh.
The general election race is seen as a toss-up, as incumbent GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is not seeking a 3rd term. It will be a key race in determining who controls the Senate, currently split at 50-50, after the 2022 midterms.
Lamb is the 15th current House member to announce they are retiring or seeking another office in 2022.
A new survey from Public Policy Polling gives Sen. Raphael Warnock a very small lead over his two most well-known prospective opponents. Warnock leads by 47% to 44% over former Sen. Kelly Loeffler. His lead is two over former professional football player Herschel Walker. Warnock's lead expands to eight - outside the 3.9% margin of error - over the only notable Republican to have actually joined the race, Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black.
The poll gave Walker, who is well-known in the state from his days as a star running back at the University of Georgia, a +13 favorability rating, while Loeffler was -19. Perhaps highlighting the ongoing political polarization, that 32-point gap in favorability made little difference in the 'who would you vote for' questions. Black's favorability was even, but 70% said they were unsure, indicating he remains largely unknown.
