Election News

Live Results: Connecticut and Kentucky State House Special Elections

This week we're following elections to fill State House vacancies in Connecticut and Kentucky. 

Connecticut State House District 71

Democrats hold a sizeable 96-53 majority over Republicans in the Connecticut State House. There are two vacancies. The vacancy in District 5 will be contested next Tuesday. Members serve two year terms; the next regularly scheduled elections are in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

District 71 is located in the west central part of the state, and includes Middlebury and parts of Waterbury. The previous incumbent, Republican Anthony D'Amelio, retired December 31 after 25 years in office. In 2018, the last contested election here, D'Amelio won by 59% to 37% over his Democratic challenger.

The party nominees are Republican William Pizzuto and Democrat John Egan. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Kentucky State House District 42

Republicans hold a 75-24 advantage over Democrats in the Kentucky State House. Tuesday's election will fill the only current vacancy. Members serve two year terms; the next regularly scheduled elections are in November. These will be contested using redistricted boundaries.

District 42 is based in Louisville. Long-time Democratic incumbent Reginald Meeks retired at the end of 2021. In 2018, the last contested election here, Meeks defeated Republican Judy Stallard by 89% to 11%.

Stallard is back on the ballot in this special election. She is opposed by Democrat Keturah Herron. Polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern Time.

Upcoming

Next Tuesday is the Texas primary, the first nominating event for the November midterms on the 2022 Election Calendar. The state gained two congressional districts after the Census; this will be the first opportunity for voters to cast ballots using the redistricted boundaries. Statewide races include governor, where Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will be seeking renomination for a third term in office.

  • March 1
    • Texas Primary
    • Connecticut State House District 5 Special Election
    • Michigan State House Districts 15, 36, 43, and 74 Special Primaries
  • March 5
    • Delaware State House District 4 Special Election
  • March 8
    • Florida State House District 88 Special Election
    • Florida State Senate District 33 Special Election
    • South Carolina State House District 97 Special Primary
  • March 22
    • New York State Assembly District 43 Special Election
    • South Carolina State House District 18 Special Primary
  • March 26
    • Louisiana State House District 101 Special Primary
  • March 29
    • South Carolina State Senate District 31 Special Election
  • April 5
    • California U.S. House District 22 Special Primary
    • California State Assembly Districts 11, 62, and 80 Special Primaries
    • Georgia State House District 45 Special Election
    • Milwaukee Mayor Special Election
    • Pennsylvania State House Districts 19, 24, and 116 Special Elections

Redistricting Update: Rhode Island Finalized; 8 States Remain Incomplete

On Friday, Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee (D) signed the congressional redistricting bill advanced to his desk by the Legislature. The map is little-changed from the one in place over the past decade.

Democrats, who completely controlled the redistricting process, did not take advantage of an opportunity to improve the partisan lean of District 2, where incumbent Jim Langevin (D) is retiring. Although it strongly favors Democrats, the district is somewhat more competitive than District 1. Republicans, who haven't won a U.S. House seat in the state since 1992, will attempt to contest it this year. Former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung is the most well-known of several Republicans to jump into the race.

Rhode Island shapes have been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map.

Eight states, with 98 districts, remain incomplete. This includes North Carolina, where the Legislature has passed a new congressional map to replace the one thrown out by the State Supreme Court as a partisan gerrymander. A three-judge panel has until this Wednesday to rule on the constitutionality of the new plan. Candidate filing, suspended by the prior court action, is scheduled to resume on February 24. 

State (Districts) Comments
Florida (28) The state is gaining a district. The state Senate overwhelming approved a plan. A redistricting subcommittee in the state House has advanced its own map; it has not yet been voted on by the full chamber. The process was temporarily put on hold after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) asked the Florida Supreme Court to provide an advisory opinion on whether District 5, the only Black opportunity district in the northern part of the state, must remain largely intact. On February 10, the Court ruled that it would not provide such an opinion. DeSantis has submitted two maps of his own and is threatening to veto any map that doesn't split District 5.
Louisiana (6) A map approved by the Republican-led Legislature is now with Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards. The new plan largely maintains the status quo including, notably, a single majority-Black district.  Democrats, including Edwards, favor the addition of a second majority-minority district given that Blacks now comprise about 33% of the state's population. If the governor vetoes the map, a two-thirds vote in each chamber would be required to override.
Missouri (8) The Missouri Senate has tabled discussions on a map, passed by the state House, that largely maintains the status quo 6-2 Republican edge. Some conservatives in the Senate have pushed for a more aggressive map that would 'crack' Kansas City. This would likely yield a 7-1 map, as that scenario would make it much more difficult for Democrat Emanuel Cleaver to hold his seat.
New Hampshire (2) The Republican-controlled state House approved a map that would make District 1 more favorable for the party. The Senate has not yet taken action; GOP Gov. Chris Sununu has asked that chamber to modify the House map to make both districts more competitive
North Carolina (14) The state is gaining a district. See discussion above the table.
Ohio (15) The state is losing a district. Returned to the incomplete list after the State Supreme Court invalidated the enacted plan, calling it an unconstitutional Republican gerrymander. The legislature was unsuccessful in its attempt to redraw the map, punting the effort to the Ohio Redistricting Commission. The Commission will have 30 days, beginning February 14, to draw a new map.
Pennsylvania (17) The state is losing a district. The Democratic-controlled Pennsylvania Supreme Court has taken over the redistricting process. Commonwealth Court Judge Patricia McCullough, a Republican, is serving as a special master in the process. She has recommended a map that was previously passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature but vetoed by Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. A hearing was held February 18.
Wisconsin (8) In November, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers vetoed the map passed by the Republican-controlled legislature, passing the process to the State Supreme Court. The Court held a daylong hearing last month to consider various proposals. 

Minnesota U.S. Rep. Jim Hagedorn Dies At 59

Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R, MN-01) died Thursday night. He was 59 years old. First elected in 2018, Hagedorn was diagnosed with stage 4 kidney cancer in 2019. After treatment, the cancer went into remission, but recurred last summer. His wife, Jennifer Carnahan, paid tribute to him in a Facebook posting.

Hagedorn won his second term by a 3% margin over Democrat Dan Feehan in 2020. Minnesota completed congressional redistricting earlier this week; the first district saw little change and will continue to span the length of the southernmost part of the state. Under the redistricted boundaries, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden by about 9.5% points in 2020, down just slightly from 10% points under the current boundaries.

Democrats currently have a 222-211 edge in the U.S. House (select 'Current House' in the preceding link).

Under Minnesota law, given the timing of the vacancy, it looks like a special election to complete Hagedorn's term will be held August 9, the same date as the statewide primary. A special primary election will be held 11 weeks prior to that.

The other vacancy is in CA-22, where Republican Devin Nunes resigned at the end of last year. A special primary election will be held in that district on April 5. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a special general election will take place on June 7. That is the date of California's statewide primary.

Congressional Redistricting Update: 9 States Remain; Interactive Map Updated

Connecticut, Kansas and Washington finalized their congressional redistricting last week. Minnesota was completed Tuesday. These shapes, with initial ratings, have been added to the House Interactive Map.

 

Nine states, with 100 total districts, remain to be completed. This includes North Carolina and Ohio, where previously enacted plans were thrown out via legal challenge. 

State (Districts) Comments
Florida (28) The state is gaining a district. The state Senate overwhelming approved a plan; the state House has developed a couple proposals of their own. The process was temporarily put on hold after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) asked the Florida Supreme Court to provide an advisory opinion on whether District 5, the only Black opportunity district in the northern part of the state, must remain largely intact. On February 10, the Court ruled that it would not provide such an opinion. DeSantis has submitted two maps of his own and is threatening to veto any map that doesn't split District 5.
Louisiana (6) The Republican-led Legislature is meeting in special session to create a redistricting plan. The state Senate passed a new map on February 8; the state House followed with one on February 10. There are minor differences between the two that will need to be worked out. However, the maps largely maintain the status quo. Democrats, including Gov. John Bel Edwards favor the addition of a second majority-minority district. If the governor vetoes a plan that reaches his desk, a two-thirds vote in each chamber would be required to override.
Missouri (8) The Missouri Senate continues to debatemap, passed by the state House, that largely maintains the status quo 6-2 Republican edge that was passed by the state House. Some conservatives in the Senate are pushing for a more aggressive map that would 'crack' Kansas City such that Democrat Emanuel Cleaver would have a difficult time getting reelected.
New Hampshire (2) The Republican-controlled state House approved a map that would make District 1 more favorable for the party. The Senate has not yet taken action; GOP Gov. Chris Sununu has asked that chamber to modify the House map to make both districts more competitive
North Carolina (14) The state is gaining a district. Returned to the incomplete list after the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled the state's new congressional map was a partisan gerrymander in violation of the state constitution. The Court directed the Legislature to draw a new map by February 18. Lawmakers are proceeding with that effort, but also considering an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. A proposed new map from the state House was published on February 15.
Ohio (15) The state is losing a district. Returned to the incomplete list after the State Supreme Court invalidated the enacted plan, calling it an unconstitutional Republican gerrymander. The legislature was unsuccessful in its attempt to redraw the map, punting the effort to the Ohio Redistricting Commission. The Commission will have 30 days, beginning February 14, to draw a new map.
Pennsylvania (17) The state is losing a district. The Democratic-controlled Pennsylvania Supreme Court has taken over the redistricting process. Commonwealth Court Judge Patricia McCullough, a Republican, is serving as a special master in the process. She has recommended a map that was previously passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature but vetoed by Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. A hearing will be held February 18.
Rhode Island (2) Commission has approved a map with little change from the current one. The proposal easily passed both houses of the Legislature on February 15 and heads to Democratic Gov. Dan McKee for his signature.
Wisconsin (8) In November, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers vetoed the map passed by the Republican-controlled legislature, passing the process to the State Supreme Court. The Court held a daylong hearing last month to consider various proposals. 

Live Results: February 15 Special Elections and Primaries

On Tuesday, we are following five special elections. Voters will fill vacancies in two New York State Assembly districts. Across the country, there are two contests for vacancies in the California State Assembly. These are technically primaries, although at least one of them will not require a general election. Finally, Milwaukee voters will begin the process of electing a new mayor via a nonpartisan primary.

New York State Assembly Districts 60 and 72

The lower chamber of the New York Legislature is dominated by Democrats, who currently hold 104 of 150 seats. There are 43 Republicans and 1 Independence Party member. The two vacancies will be filled in Tuesday's special election. Both are safely Democratic seats in New York City.

Assembly members serve two year terms. The next regularly scheduled elections are in November. Those will be contested under redistricted boundaries.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

District 60 is located in Brooklyn. The prior incumbent, Democrat Charles Barron, was elected to the New York City Council in November. Barron ran unopposed in 2020; in 2018 he received 96% of the vote; Republican and Conservative nominees split the other 4%. There are three candidates on the ballot. 

District 72 is located in Upper Manhattan. Democrat Carmen N. De LaRosa was elected to the New York City Council in November. De LaRosa was unopposed in 2020; in 2018 she received 94% of the vote while her Republican opponent saw 6% support. There are three candidates on the ballot.

California State Assembly Districts 17 and 49

Democrats hold 55 of 80 seats in the California Assembly. There are 19 Republicans and one independent. Five seats are vacant, all were previously held by Democrats.

Assembly members serve two year terms. The next regularly scheduled elections are in November. Those will be contested under redistricted boundaries.

Vacancies in Districts 11, 62, and 80 will hold primaries on April 5. Those general elections, as necessary, will be June 7, the same date as the statewide primary.

In California, candidates from all parties are included on a single primary ballot, with the top two advancing to the general election. However, in the case of a special election, as these are, if one candidate gets a majority of the vote in the primary, they are elected and no special general election will be held.

Polls close at 11:00 PM Eastern Time

District 17 is located in San Francisco. The seat became vacant when Democrat David Chiu was sworn in as San Francisco City Attorney in November. Chiu defeated Libertarian nominee Starchild 89% to 11% in 2020.

No Republican has contested this districts since 2016, and none are participating in the primary. There are four candidates, all Democrats, on the ballot. The general election, if no candidate gets a majority of the vote, will be April 19.

District 49 is located entirely within Los Angeles County, with much of the area immediately east of the City of Los Angeles. Democrat Edwin Chau resigned in December after being appointed to the Los Angeles County Superior Court. Chau defeated Republican Burton Brink by a 68%-32% margin in 2020.

Brink is again the nominee; he will face Democrat Mike Fong. As there are only two candidates on the primary ballot, the first place finisher will be the winner of the election.

Milwaukee Mayor 

Milwaukee is the 31st largest city in the United States,1 1City rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of just over 577,000. 

The acting mayor is Democrat Cavalier Johnson, who also serves as the City's Common Council President. Johnson became acting mayor when five-term incumbent Tom Barrett resigned in December after being unanimously confirmed as the new U.S. Ambassador to Luxembourg. 

The top two finishers in this nonpartisan (NPA in the results table) primary will advance to the April 5 general election. The winner will complete Barrett's term, which ends April 16, 2024.

There are seven candidates on the ballot. Johnson appears to be in a good position to advance. Limited polling suggests the other slot is likely to go to former Alderman Bob Donovan2 2Common Council members, other than the president, are given the alderman title. or state Senator Lena Taylor. Both Donovan (in 2016) and Taylor (2020) previously ran for mayor. They each finished second to Barrett in the primary before losing to him in the general election.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

Upcoming

  • February 22
    • Connecticut State House District 71 Special Election
    • Kentucky State House District 42 Special Election
  • March 1
    • Texas Primary (first statewide primary for 2022:  Election Calendar)
    • Connecticut State House District 5 Special Election
    • Michigan State House Districts 15, 36, 43, and 74 Special Primaries
  • March 5
    • Delaware State House District 4 Special Election
  • March 8
    • Florida State House District 88 Special Election
    • Florida State Senate District 33 Special Election
    • South Carolina State House District 97 Special Primary
  • March 22
    • South Carolina State House District 18 Special Primary
      • Runoff April 5, if necessary
  • March 26
    • Louisiana State House District 101 Special Primary
  • March 29
    • South Carolina State Senate District 31 Special Election
  • April 5
    • California U.S. House District 22 Special Primary
    • California State Assembly Districts 11 and 80 Special Primary
    • Milwaukee Mayor Special Election
    • Pennsylvania State House Districts 19, 24, and 116 Special Election

 

New York Rep. Kathleen Rice to Retire; 30th House Democrat not Seeking Reelection

Rep. Kathleen Rice (NY-04) will not seek reelection this year. In her 4th term, Rice becomes the 30th Democratic House member to retire or seek another office

New York's 4th district includes parts of Nassau County on Long Island. The current boundaries are shown in the image below; there was very little change in redistricting. Joe Biden has  a roughly 12% 2020 margin over Donald Trump in both the old and new map. The consensus rating is Likely Democratic.

Of the four congressional districts largely or entirely in Long Island, only Republican Andrew Garbarino is seeking another term. In addition to Rice's retirement, Republican Lee Zeldin (NY-01) and Democrat Tom Suozzi (NY-03) are running for governor.

Congressional Redistricting Update: 11 States, With 113 Districts, Remain Unfinished

This week, maps for Kansas and Washington were enacted into law. The shapes for those states will be added to the House Interactive Map in the days ahead. 11 states, with 113 districts, have yet to finalize their plans for the next decade. All of them are in the Eastern or Central time zone. 

In Kansas, the Republican-controlled Legislature overrode a veto by Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly. The new map redistricts part of Kansas City out of District 3, endangering the reelection prospects Sharice Davids, the lone Democrat in the state's delegation.

In Washington, the Legislature approved a new map, after making very minor changes to a map approved by the state's redistricting commission in November. The new map does not significantly alter the competitive balance in the state.

State (Districts) Comments
Connecticut (5) Redistricting commission was unable to pass a new map, punting the responsibility to the State Supreme Court. The Court appointed a special master, who submitted his proposed map. It represents only minor changes from the map currently in use. The Court held a hearing on the merits of the plan late last month.
Florida (28) The state is gaining a district. The state Senate overwhelming approved a plan; the state House has developed a couple proposals of their own. The process was put on hold after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) asked the Florida Supreme Court to provide an advisory opinion on whether District 5, the only Black opportunity district in the northern part of the state, must remain largely intact. DeSantis had submitted his own map which essentially threw out that structure. On February 10, the Court ruled that it would not provide such an opinion. 
Louisiana (6) The Republican-led Legislature is meeting in special session to create a redistricting plan. The state Senate passed a new map on February 8 that largely maintains the status quo. The state House will likely pass a similar plan. Democrats, including Gov. John Bel Edwards favor the addition of a second majority-minority district. If the governor vetoes a plan that reaches his desk, a two-thirds vote in each chamber would be required to override.
Minnesota (8) The legislature has until February 15 to pass a new map. They are more likely than not to miss that deadline, at which point a five-judge panel will take over the process. That panel has already held hearings and may be able to act fairly quickly if needed.
Missouri (8) The Missouri Senate continues to debatemap, passed by the state House, that largely maintains the status quo 6-2 Republican edge that was passed by the state House. Some conservatives in the Senate are pushing for a more aggressive map that would 'crack' Kansas City such that Democrat Emanuel Cleaver would have a difficult time getting reelected.
New Hampshire (2) The Republican-controlled state House approved a map that would make District 1 more favorable for the party. The Senate has not yet taken action; GOP Gov. Chris Sununu has asked that chamber to modify the House map to make both districts more competitive
North Carolina (14) The state is gaining a district. Returns to the list after the North Carolina Supreme Court ruled the state's new congressional map was a partisan gerrymander in violation of the state constitution. The Court directed the Legislature to draw a new map by February 18. Lawmakers are proceeding with that effort, but also considering an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Ohio (15) The state is losing a district. Ohio returned to the incomplete list after the State Supreme Court invalidated the enacted plan, calling it an unconstitutional Republican gerrymander. The legislature was unsuccessful in its attempt to redraw the map, punting the effort to the Ohio Redistricting Commission. The Commission will have 30 days, beginning February 14, to draw a new map.
Pennsylvania (17) The state is losing a district. The Democratic-controlled Pennsylvania Supreme Court has taken over the redistricting process. Commonwealth Court Judge Patricia McCullough, a Republican, is serving as a special master in the process. She has recommended a map that was previously passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature but vetoed by Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf. A hearing will be held February 18.
Rhode Island (2) Commission has approved a map with little change from the current one. It is not binding on the Democratic-controlled legislature. It will be interesting to see if there is an attempt to shore up District 2, which has a small chance of becoming competitive given the retirement of long-time Rep. Jim Langevin.
Wisconsin (8) In November, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers vetoed the map passed by the Republican-controlled legislature, passing the process to the State Supreme Court. The Court held a daylong hearing last month to consider various proposals. 

There are 1,000 Days Until the 2024 Presidential Election

February 9, 2022 marks 1,000 days until the 2024 presidential election, which is scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. 

There are 272 days until the November 8 midterm elections.

2024 Electoral Map

The electoral map will change for the 2024 election, reflecting apportionment after the 2020 Census. Apportionment affects the number of U.S. House seats in each state; redistricting is currently underway to redraw district boundaries for the 2022 midterms.  Since each state receives electoral votes equal to its congressional delegation (U.S. House seats + 2 U.S. Senators), those states gaining or losing representatives will see a corresponding change in their electoral votes.

On the 2024 interactive electoral map, you can use the buttons above the counter to see what your forecast would have looked like using 2020 electoral votes, as well as the Change by state. If the 2024 map had been used in 2020, Donald Trump would have earned three additional electoral votes, giving Joe Biden a 303-235 win vs. the actual 306-232.

Separately, we've added an alphabetized set of prospective presidential candidates to the map to allow for additional customization. It is not an exhaustive list, and will be updated as we get more information on who will actually be running. Select the party name above the map to change to a specific candidate's name. 

 

Live Results: Oklahoma City Mayor, Arkansas State Senate Special Election

We're following two elections this Tuesday. Overview and live results below.

Oklahoma City Mayor

Oklahoma City is the 22nd largest city in the United States,1 1City rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area. with a population of just over 681,000.  The mayor is David Holt, who is seeking a second four-year term. 

Holt is a Republican, although the election is technically nonpartisan (NPA in the results table). He has three challengers on the ballot. The only public poll of the race, released in December, was sponsored by the mayor's campaign. It showed him earning 61% of the vote, with all of the other candidates in single digits. 

The mayor is apparently confident enough in his reelection prospects that he was the only candidate that did not participate in a January 25 debate. A photograph of Holt on an empty podium was on display at that event.

In the event Holt doesn't get a majority of the vote Tuesday, he will face the 2nd place finisher in an April 5 runoff.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Arkansas State Senate District 7

Republicans hold a lopsided 26-7 margin over Democrats in the 35-person Arkansas State Senate. There is one independent. Term length is four years, except two years for the election that precedes a redistricting - as was the case in 2020. The 2022 elections will be contested using redistricted boundaries. Those will be for four years terms, as will the ones in 2026. 

District 7 is in the northwest part of the state. Republican Lance Eads resigned in October to take a private sector job. Eads was serving in his second term, having run unopposed in the general election in 2016 and 2020.

The nominees are Republican Colby Fulfer and Democrat Lisa Parks. Polls close at 8:30 PM Eastern Time.

Upcoming

  • February 15
    • California State Assembly Districts 17 and 49 Special Primaries
    • Milwaukee Mayor (All Party Special Primary)
    • New York State Assembly Districts 60 and 72 Special Elections
  • February 22
    • Connecticut State House District 71 Special Election
    • Kentucky State House District 42 Special Election
  • March 1
    • Connecticut State House District 5 Special Election
    • Michigan State House Districts 15, 36, 43, and 74 Special Primaries
    • Texas Primary (first statewide primary for 2022:  Election Calendar)
  • March 8
    • Florida State House District 88 Special Election
    • Florida State Senate District 33 Special Election
    • South Carolina State House District 97 Special Primary

 

Supreme Court Reinstates Alabama Congressional Map

In a 5-4 decision, the U.S. Supreme Court reinstated Alabama's previously enacted congressional map, allowing it to be used for the state's upcoming primary election and the November midterm elections.

The Justices issued a stay on a January 24 preliminary injunction by a lower court. 

While Alabama's new map is little changed from the one in place for the past decade, the earlier ruling had said that it likely violated the Voting Rights Act. Under the plan, Black voters would only having the opportunity to elect one representative of their choice, despite comprising 27% of the population. 

The Supreme Court did not rule on the claim itself and will hear arguments over the map at a later date. The stay, at least in part, was driven by the calendar. From the ruling:

"The stay order is not a ruling on the merits, but instead simply stays the District Court’s injunction pending a ruling on the merits. The stay order follows this Court’s election-law precedents, which establish (i) that federal district courts ordinarily should not enjoin state election laws in the period close to an election, and (ii) that federal appellate courts should stay injunctions when, as here, lower federal courts contravene that principle."  

The districts have been added back to the 2022 House Interactive Map. The consensus map is below; click for an interactive version.