Election News

Tennessee holds its primary Thursday, giving us a second primary day this week. The Arizona primary was Tuesday; two of the more interesting contests there remain uncalled as of the publication time of this article.

The remaining 16 states will hold their contests between next Tuesday and September 10.^{1 1}49 states will have held a primary. Louisiana has a unique system, with no nominees determined prior to a November 5 all-party primary. A candidate can win an election that day by getting a majority of the vote, otherwise there is a top two runoff.

Tennessee Primary

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. The state is divided between the Eastern and Central Time Zones. As all polling places close simultaneously, locations observing Central Time close at 7:00 PM local time.

The most interesting contests look to be the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, and the GOP nomination fight in the 5th congressional district. All Tennessee Primary Results >>

U.S. Senate

Republican Primary

Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is seeking a second term. She has a nominal primary challenge. 

After a quiet month, the down-ballot primary calendar restarts this week with the Arizona primary on Tuesday. The Tennessee primary follows on Thursday. 

The remaining 16 states will hold their contests between August 6 and September 10.^{1 1}49 states will have held a primary. Louisiana has a unique system, with no nominees determined prior to a November 5 all-party primary. A candidate can win an election that day by getting a majority of the vote, otherwise there is a top two runoff.

Arizona Primary

Polls close at 7:00 PM local time. That's 10:00 PM Eastern for all but Navajo Nation, which observes Daylight Savings Time. Those polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern.

On this page, we highlight some of the key races. More Arizona Primary Results >>

U.S. Senate

Elected as a Democrat in 2018, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema became an independent in 2022. She subsequently decided not to seek reelection. 

Rep. Ruben Gallego (AZ-03) is unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Republican Primary

Sunday, July 28 marks 100 days until the November 5 presidential election.

We've created a Harris vs. Trump polling map. This will replace the Biden vs. Trump polling map that is no longer being updated.

The polling map does not consider forecasts of how the election will go in November. It is best thought of as an 'if the election was today' view of things.

From the New York Times, "President Biden on Sunday abruptly abandoned his campaign for a second term under intense pressure from fellow Democrats and threw his support to Vice President Kamala Harris to lead their party in a dramatic last-minute bid to stop former President Donald J. Trump from returning to the White House."

The article goes on to say "The president’s decision upended the race and set the stage for a raucous and unpredictable campaign unlike any in modern times, leaving Ms. Harris just 107 days to consolidate support from Democrats, establish herself as a credible national leader and prosecute the case against Mr. Trump."

As a result of this late change to the Democratic ticket, look for the following changes to 270toWin in the days ahead:

The passing of long-time Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (TX-18) on Friday created a new vacancy in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans now hold a 220-212 partisan advantage.

Jackson Lee was renominated for a 16th term in the state's March primary. Replacing her on the November ballot will fall to the Harris County Democratic Party's executive committee, who has until August 26 to nominate someone. It is up to Gov. Greg Abbott (R) to decide whether there is a special election to complete the current term. 

The death of Democratic Rep. Donald Payne Jr. in April created a vacancy in New Jersey's 10th congressional district. Party nominees will be chosen Tuesday, with a special general election on September 18.

The winner of the special election will serve through the end of the year.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern.

The 2024 Presidential Election Simulator and related statistics are now available on 270toWin. You can conduct individual simulated elections on your own or review the results of 25,000 simulations conducted each morning. 

The simulator is largely based on a data-driven presidential model created by JHK forecasts.

The model encompasses both fundamentals and polling. It also accounts for uncertainty, which will decrease as the election draws closer. Since we are still over 100 days from the election, that uncertainty means that any single simulation might produce a result that seems unrealistic.

Compare the expert consensus forecast with a map based exclusively on polling.  

The major difference is that the expert forecast is forward looking (i.e., the election is in November), while the polling map is more of a look at "if the election was today." 

As the election draws near, the two maps should converge. State-level polling will become more frequent, and will also get greater weighting in the expert forecasts.

This holiday week brings us just one election.

Wisconsin State Senate District 4 (Primary)

Republicans hold a large 22-10 margin in the Wisconsin State Senate. Members serve four-year, staggered terms. The even-numbered districts are up for election this year.