Rep. Bobby Rush, the dean of Illinois' U.S. House delegation, will not seek a 16th term in this year's midterm elections. He becomes the 24th Democrat to announce they are retiring or seeking another office this year. 11 Republicans have made that decision.
Rush has represented the state's 1st congressional district for the entirety of his 30 years in the House. In its current form, it extends southwest from the south side of Chicago. While the boundaries are changing in redistricting, it will remain a safely Democratic district. He won his final term by a 48% margin in 2020.
Rush has the distinction of being the only person to defeat former President Barack Obama in an election. Obama, then a state Senator, challenged him in the 2000 Democratic primary.
Happy birthday @RepBobbyRush! To celebrate, I'm resharing my map of the only election @BarackObama ever lost - his 2000 primary bid against Rush. It was a spirited campaign that proved Rush's resilience and prepared Obama for his future senate and presidential campaigns. #twillpic.twitter.com/mU1OLiG63s
Devin Nunes officially resigned from Congress Monday. The move comes four weeks after he announced his intention to depart. Nunes is leaving to helm Trump Media & Technology Group, which is preparing to launch TRUTH Social, a new social media platform.
There are now two vacancies in the U.S. House, with Democrats holding a narrow 221-212 edge. The other open seat, in Florida's 20th congressional district, will be filled via a special election next Tuesday. That safely Democratic district was previously represented by Alcee Hastings, who died in April, 2021.
The image links to the House Interactive Map; choose 'Current House' view to see the current composition:
California District 22 Special Election
Within two weeks, Gov. Gavin Newsom will set the date for a special election to complete Nunes' term. Under California law, the election will be an all-party primary. If a candidate gets a majority of the vote, they are elected. Otherwise, the top two finishers will advance to the general election runoff.
The special election will be contested within the current boundaries of District 22, which is situated in the San Joaquin Valley. Nunes was reelected by about 8.5% in 2020. While the GOP will likely be favored in the special election, the district - now CA-21 - became significantly more Democratic-leaning in recent redistricting, which may make things difficult for a Republican incumbent should they choose to run again in November.
The map now includes shapes for 283 out of the 435 congressional districts. Click/tap the image below for an interactive version of the Cook Political forecast.
New Jersey's recently-approved congressional districts have been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map.
According to Politico, "Barring a massive wave election for either side, Democrats’ 10-2 majority in the New Jersey delegation is likely to shrink to 9-3 under the new map. That’s because the state’s 7th District, represented by Rep. Tom Malinowski, will shed Democratic areas to the benefit of three other previously-vulnerable Democratic incumbents." For a deeper dive into some of the more competitive districts, see this analysis from Split Ticket.
New Jersey is the 23rd multi-district state to complete redistricting. Six states have a single at-large district. Also included on the interactive map is redistricting approved by the legislatures of Arkansas and Georgia. While these await gubernatorial action (Georgia) or inaction (Arkansas), the new maps are all but certain to become law.
The map now includes shapes for 259 out of the 435 congressional districts.
California's independent redistricting commission approved a new congressional map earlier this week. While the map is not yet certified, it is all but certain to be in the near future. For the first time since statehood, California is losing a congressional district. It will have 52 for the next decade, still by far the most in the nation.
This article, written by Lakshya Jain (@lxeagle17) of Split Ticket, provides an overview of those districts seen as competitive in the newly approved map. 270toWin will be adding the district shapes for California (as well as those for Arizona and New Jersey) to the 2022 House Interactive Map in the near future.
Democrats couldn't have asked for a much better map from CA's redistricting commission. Their incumbents are protected and they have a chance at flipping 3 seats in a (likely) Republican year.
Her decision may have partially been driven by redistricting that is currently underway. For the first time in its history, California is losing a congressional district. In the approved final proposal from the independent commission, Roybal-Allard and Lowenthal would have been essentially merged together into the new 42nd district. Their joint departure creates a much easier path for Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia (D) to win a House seat in the 2022 midterms. Garcia announced his congressional run after Lowenthal's retirement announcement last week.
Retirement Map
23 Democrats and 13 Republicans are retiring or seeking another office in 2022. Click/tap the map for a detailed list.
Democratic Reps. Stephanie Murphy (FL-7) and Albio Sires (NJ-8) will not seek reelection next year. This brings to 22 the number of current House Democrats retiring or seeking another office. 11 Republicans have made that decision.
I've decided not to seek another term in Congress. Serving Central Florida has been the honor of my life, but it's also been incredibly challenging for my family and me.
This was not an easy decision, but it is the right decision. Thank you for everything. pic.twitter.com/UaOufbPOSo
Sires, in his ninth term, represents a largely urban district in the northern part of New Jersey. In its current boundaries, it is one of the bluest districts in a state where Democrats hold a 10-2 edge; Sires won by about 50% in 2020. New Jersey will maintain those 12 districts after redistricting, which has not yet been completed. Sires is expected to make a formal announcement before the end of the year.
???????????? BREAKING: Rep. Albio Sires will not seek re-election to Congress in 2022. Robert J. Menendez, the son of U.S. Senator Bob Menendez, is the top candidate to succeed him in #NJ8. https://t.co/qpCf9KBFsA
After serving the 47th District of California for almost 10 years in Washington, D.C., I have decided not to run for reelection to Congress in 2022. Read my full statement to my constituents: https://t.co/jZm8VdXvz7
Currently, District 47 is along the coast, south of Los Angeles, and includes Long Beach as well as Catalina Island. In the latest proposed map put out by California's redistricting commission, Lowenthal would have fit most naturally into the new District 39, as would fellow Democrat Lucille Roybal-Allard (current CA-40). Lowenthal's retirement avoids a potential intraparty primary between two incumbents. California is losing a district for the first time since it gained statehood.
The 2021 election calendar wraps up Tuesday with two general and two primary state legislative special elections. While all four of the states have completed legislative redistricting, these elections will be contested under the existing boundaries.
There are vacancies in Districts 116 and 144. The special election for Stamford-area District 144 will take place on January 25.
District 116 is located just southwest of New Haven. It was previously represented by Democrat Michael DiMassa, who resigned in October after being indicted. He was serving his third term.
Nominees for special elections in Connecticut are selected by the parties. Democrats nominated Trenee McGee. The Republican nominee is Richard DePalma, who also represented the party in the 2016 and 2018 elections here. Those races were not competitive; DiMassa won by a nearly 50% margin both times. Independent Portia Bias is also on the ballot.
Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time (ET).
Iowa State Senate District 1
Republicans hold a 31-18 edge over Democrats in the 50-person Iowa State Senate. Members serve staggered four year terms; districts with even numbers were contested in 2020 and those with odd numbers scheduled for 2022. As a result of redistricting, it is possible that one or more of the even-numbered districts, known as "holdover senatorial districts" will also be on the ballot. That remains to be determined. If any of those elections are needed, they will be for a shortened two-year term.
District 1 covers a largely rural area in the northwest corner of the state. It has been vacant since October, when Republican Zach Whiting resigned to take a job in Texas. Whiting was in his first term; he ran unopposed in 2018.
Nominees for special elections in Iowa are selected by the parties. The Republicans chose Dave Rowley; the Democratic nominee is Mark Lemke.
Polls close at 9:00 PM ET.
Special Primary Elections
Arkansas State Senate District 7
Republicans hold a lopsided 26-7 margin over Democrats in the 35-person Arkansas State Senate. Term length is four years, except two years for the election that precedes a redistricting - as was the case in 2020. The 2022 elections will be contested using redistricted boundaries. Those will be for four years terms, as will the ones in 2026.
District 7 is in the northwest part of the state. Republican Lance Eads resigned in October to take a private sector job. Eads was serving in his second term, having run unopposed in the general election in 2016 and 2020.
Four Republicans are looking to succeed Eads, while two Democrats are seeking their party's nomination. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, a top two runoff will be held January 11. The ultimate nominees will advance to the February 8 general election.
Polls close at 8:30 PM ET.
Massachusetts State Senate 1st Suffolk & Middlesex District
Democrats have an overwhelming 36-3 membership advantage in the 40-person Massachusetts State Senate. Term length is two years; the next regularly scheduled elections are in 2022. These will be contested under redistricted boundaries.
The vacancy in this Boston area district occurred in September, when incumbent Democrat Joseph Boncore resigned to take a private sector job. Boncore was in his third term.
No Republican has contested this district since 2012. That streak will continue with the special election. Two candidates are competing in the Democratic primary with the nominee all but certain to be elected on January 11.
Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.
Upcoming
On January 11, there will be a special election to in Florida's 20th congressional district. The seat has been vacant since long-time Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings died in April. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick won the special Democratic primary by just 5 votes over Dale Holness and she will be a heavy favorite against Republican Jason Mariner.
This is the only currently open seat in the U.S. House. However, another will occur at the end of 2021, as California Rep. Devin Nunes (R) announced he will resign to lead former president Donald Trump's new media venture.
The 2022 Election Calendar (statewide primaries) kicks off in Texas on March 1. It was to have been followed the following week by North Carolina's primaries. However, these have been delayed until May by the State Supreme Court to allow time for legal challenges to redistricted maps recently approved by the General Assembly.
There will also be several legislative special elections in January and February.
The 2022 House Interactive Map is now available. Use it to create and share your own 2022 election forecast.
The interactive map will be updated as states complete the redistricting process and we are able to upload the new district shapes. In some cases, (e.g., Arkansas and Georgia at the moment), new district shapes may be added before they become law if they are all but certain to be enacted (e.g., just waiting on the governor's signature).
Current House members are assigned to new districts as appropriate. In some cases, redistricting will force two incumbents seeking reelection into the same district. If they are of the same party (e.g., WV-2), the survivor will be determined in the party primary. Alternately, if there is one representative from each party (e.g., NC-11), and both win their respective primaries, they will meet in the general election.
Some states will be gray. Dark gray states, divided by district, can be included in your forecast (i.e., changed to red/blue/toss-up), but were not available to be rated when the map was saved. (For maps that we keep updated - such as those associated with professional analysts - any dark gray states are those that have not yet been rated by the forecaster).
Light gray states do not yet have a redistricted map available; these are not interactive. The counter above the map separates districts in light gray from those in dark. As a result, the light gray total at any given point in time will be the same across all House maps you look at. That number also reflects the number of districts - out of 435 total - that remain to be redistricted.
Use the drop down list above the map to see all districts, and their numbers, for a selected state.
Use the buttons above the map to toggle between the 'Interactive Map' and the 'Current House'. The current house map reflects the existing district boundaries and incumbents. For representation purposes, these boundaries are in effect until the new Congress takes office in January, 2023. Current maps are available for all states, even those that haven't completed redistricting.
