Election News

The team at Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with their initial ratings for the 2024 House elections. You can read the full analysis or click the image below for an interactive map of the ratings.

After two consecutive elections resulting in narrow majorities, the forecaster calls the race for the House a toss-up. It sees 190 safe GOP seats, with 174 solidly for the Democrats. Adding in the seats rated 'likely' brings us to a Republican edge of 202-189. That leaves just 44 highly competitive seats, rated 'leaning' or 'toss-up'.

Tuesday brings a wide variety of elections, some scheduled, some special. Highlights include a congressional special election in Virginia and a regular primary for a seat on the closely-divided Wisconsin Supreme Court.

U.S. House Special Election

Virginia Congressional District 4

The only vacancy in the U.S. House will be filled via this special election. Republicans currently hold a 222-212 partisan edge. Select the 'Current House' button on the 2024 House election map to see that breakdown.

This district includes the state capital, Richmond, and runs southward to the North Carolina border. Democrat Donald McEachin died in late November, after having been easily reelected to a fourth term. 

Republicans hold a sizeable 69-33 edge over Democrats in the Louisiana House of Representatives. There are two independents, along with the vacancy in District 93. Members serve four-year terms; the next regularly scheduled elections are in November.

District 93 is based in New Orleans, including the French Quarter. While normally that would be a 'nice to know' factoid, it may have some impact on who wins here. This is the big weekend of Mardi Gras, with parades and other events scheduled through the day. It could be a logistical nightmare for voters who try and cast ballots on Election Day itself. According to a spokesperson for the House Speaker, the date was the only one available that allows time for a runoff before the start of the next legislative session.

Democrat Royce Duplessis resigned in December after winning a special election for State Senate District 5.

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein said Tuesday that she will not seek reelection in 2024. The decision was widely anticipated, so much so that two U.S. House Democrats have been in the race to succeed her for several weeks, with a third member expected to announce later this month.  

Each of us was sent here to solve problems. That’s what I’ve done for the last 30 years, and that’s what I plan to do for the next two years. My thanks to the people of California for allowing me to serve them.https://t.co/J1DTR8kNP2

— Senator Dianne Feinstein (@SenFeinstein) February 14, 2023

Feinstein, 89, has served in the Senate for over 30 years, winning a special election in 1992 over Republican John Seymour. Seymour had been appointed by Gov. Pete Wilson, who had resigned from the Senate after he defeated - wait for it - Dianne Feinstein in the 1990 gubernatorial election. 

Seymour was the last California Republican to serve in the U.S. Senate, and that likely won't change with Feinstein's departure. 

Democratic Reps. Katie Porter (CA-47) and Adam Schiff (CA-30) have already declared. Their colleague, Barbara Lee (CA-12) is expected to launch her bid later this month. Schiff has the backing of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is entering the 2024 presidential race, becoming the first prominent Republican challenger to former President Donald Trump.

Her campaign released a launch video:

This Tuesday, we're tracking three special elections in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

Democrats appeared to gain control by gaining ten seats in the 2022 elections, giving the party a narrow 102-101 partisan edge. However, all three Pittsburgh-area seats were previously held by Democrats, so the vacancies gave the GOP a temporary 101-99 margin. This complicated organizational efforts when the new House was seated last month.

While it seems somewhat unlikely given the partisan lean of these districts, Republicans can gain control by winning one of these three special elections. 

Cook Political Report is out with its initial look at the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives. Subscribers can read the full analysis by David Wasserman.

Republicans start with a narrow 222-213 margin, setting the stage for another competitive battle for control. The initial ratings show 203 safe or likely Republican seats vs. 190 for Democrats. That leaves 42 highly competitive districts, including 20 pure toss-ups.

Wasserman notes that Republicans "have history on their side: despite the House flipping partisan control five times since 1994, it hasn't flipped in a presidential cycle since 1952." An additional benefit to the party may come if another redistricting takes place in North Carolina and Ohio, "where temporary maps were used for the 2022 cycle by court order. In both states, Republicans captured state supreme court majorities in November, potentially allowing GOP-led legislatures to pass fresh gerrymanders for 2024." 

This Tuesday, we're tracking six legislative special elections, including two runoffs. Four of these are in Georgia, with one each in Mississippi and Pennsylvania.

Georgia

Polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern Time. 

State Senate District 11

Republicans hold a 32-23 majority over Democrats in the Georgia State Senate. Members serve two-year terms, with the next regular elections in 2024.

Republicans dominate the Tennessee State House, holding 75 of 99 seats. There are 23 Democrats along with one vacancy. Members serve two-year terms, with the next regular elections in November, 2024.

District 86 is in the far western part of the state, including portions of Memphis. Democrat Barbara Cooper died at 93 in October, 2022. She was posthumously reelected in November by a 73% to 27% margin over an independent challenger. Cooper had served in the House since 1996.

Ten candidates are on the Democratic primary ballot to succeed Cooper. This includes Cooper's daughter, Tanya.

The 2024 Senate Interactive Map is now live. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or independents currently associated with the party.

Democrats hold the majority, controlling 51 of 100 seats as the 118th Congress gets underway. For Republicans to retake control in 2025, they will need a net gain of two seats or one seat along with a victory in the 2024 presidential election.

Independents: The Senate's three independents are up for election in 2024. Along with the usual major party options, the 2024 map allows you to choose an independent in Arizona, Maine, and Vermont. A set of purple gradients is used. Separately, you can elect how to count each independent for purposes of determining the party in control.