Election News

Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse Expected to Resign; Sole Finalist to be President at University of Florida

Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse is expected to resign in the near future, likely to become the new president at the University of Florida. He is the only finalist in that search. Per Politico, Sasse, in his second term, has "made a name for himself as a consistent Trump critic in Congress as well as a reliable conservative vote."

With the planned departure coming so close to the 2022 election, Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) will be able to appoint an interim replacement, who will serve until a special election is held in November, 2024. The winner of that election will complete the final two years of the term. Nebraska's other Senate seat, held by Republican Deb Fischer will also be on the 2024 ballot for a regular six-year term.

Florida Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch Resigning at Close of Business Friday

Friday will be the final day in the U.S. House for Rep. Ted Deutch (FL-22).  The Florida Democrat had announced earlier this year that he would not seek reelection, and would depart before the end of the term. He is moving to a new role as CEO of the American Jewish Committee

Barring any unexpected changes, Democrats will hold a 220-212 edge over Republicans through the November 8 general election. On that date, there will be a special election to fill the vacancy in Indiana's 2nd District. The seat became open when Jackie Walorski (R) died in an automobile accident in early August. Republicans are expected to hold the seat, making the partisan composition 220-213 for the lame duck period.

The other two open seats, both in Florida, will not be filled until the start of the new Congress in January. In addition to Deutch's district, Charlie Crist resigned from the 13th District at the end of August to focus on his general election campaign against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

Polling Update: September 27

Today marks 42 days - six weeks - until the 2022 midterm elections. 

Introducing the 2022 House Simulator

Today marks 50 days until the November 8 midterm elections. To mark the occasion - although the timing is really just a coincidence - we've launched the 2022 House Simulator.

Run as many simulated elections as you'd like for the 435 U.S. House seats up this year. The results of a simulation can be displayed randomly, or in order of poll closing times. A table below the map will track your simulations until the browser tab is closed.

Democrats narrowly control the chamber, with a 221-212 edge over Republicans. Assigning the two vacancies (FL-13 and IN-02) to the prior incumbent party gives us a 222-213 count at full strength. Republicans will need to gain five seats in November to take back the Speaker's gavel.

Uncontested: The 36 House Districts With Only One Major Party on the Ballot

As this year's primaries (view results by state) draw to a close, we count 36 U.S. House races where only one of the two major parties will be on the ballot. 24 of these are held by Republicans, 12 by Democrats.

17 incumbents have no opponent. In 13 other districts, opposition is from a 3rd party or independent candidate. Finally, in six California districts, Democrats won both positions in the top-two primary. 

Looking back to similar races across the last two cycles, this year's total of 36 is in the middle. In 2018, there were 42 such races; that number declined to 27 in 2020.

Overview and Live Results: Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island Primaries

The primary calendar wraps up this Tuesday with contests in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Up next is the general election on November 8.

In terms of primaries of interest this week, most of the action is on the GOP side in New Hampshire. Contests for U.S. Senate and both U.S. House seats, all currently held by Democrats, feature proxy battles between establishment and Trump-aligned wings of the party. 

In Rhode Island, the Democratic governor is in a closely-contested primary, while the party will also choose a nominee to replace a retiring member in House District 2.

Three New Members of U.S. House to be Seated Tuesday

Vacancies in the U.S. House will drop from five to two on Tuesday, as three recent special election winners are sworn in. Democrats gained a seat in those elections bringing he partisan composition of the chamber to 221 Democrats and 212 Republicans.

The Democratic gain was in Alaska, where Mary Peltola will complete the term of the late Republican Don Young. Peltola is on the general election ballot, in what will be a special election rematch against Republicans Sarah Palin and Joe Begich. 

In New York, Democrat Pat Ryan (NY-19) and Republican Joe Sempolinski will replace incumbents that resigned. Due to redistricting shifts, Ryan will run in neighboring NY-18 in November. Sempolinski did not run for a full term, and has been added to the list of retiring House members.

Overview and Live Results: Massachusetts Primary

The 2022 primary calendar is winding down with four East Coast states. This Tuesday is Massachusetts, with Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island all following in one week. 

Louisiana will hold its version of primaries on November 8, the same day as the general election in the other 49 states. In the Pelican State, all candidates appear on a single ballot. If one gets a majority of the vote, he or she is elected. Otherwise, the top two advance to a December 10 runoff.

Massachusetts

Voters will choose nominees for Governor, U.S. House, and State Legislature. Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. 

All Massachusetts Results >>

Governor

New Feature: 2022 Senate Simulator

Try out the new 2022 Senate Simulator. Run as many simulated elections as you'd like for the 35 Senate seats up this year. The results of a simulation can be displayed randomly, or in order of poll closing times. A table below the map will track your simulations until the browser tab is closed.

The Senate is evenly split at 50-50. Democrats control the chamber since Vice-President Kamala Harris can break tie votes. Republicans need to gain one seat to take back the majority.

There are still a wide range of possible outcomes for the election. Any individual simulation is plausible, although no one result is particularly likely. To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each afternoon, including the results on our Senate Battle for Control page. That page also includes daily results by state and links to each state's trend over time.

Alaska At-Large Congressional District Special Election: Ranked Choice Results

On Wednesday, Alaskans will find out who will represent them in the U.S. House through the end of the year. The state's single at-large district has been vacant since March, when GOP Rep. Don Young died. Young had held the seat since 1973.

As no candidate received a majority of the first-choice vote in the August 16 election, the winner will be determined via ranked choice voting. Ballots mailed from overseas, postmarked by Election Day, could arrive up to 15 days later and still be counted. This is why the process was not completed prior to August 31.

The Alaska Division of Elections will run the ranked choice voting tabulation in the 8:00 PM Eastern Time hour.  Access the live stream here.