Election News

Recap of Virginia and New Jersey Primary Results

June 9, 2021

Virginia

All Results >>

Statewide Offices

These were all for the Democratic nomination. Republicans picked their nominees at a party convention in May.

Governor: Virginia governors cannot serve consecutive terms, so Gov. Ralph Northam (D) was not on the ballot. As expected, former Gov. Terry McAuliffe won the nomination for the seat he held before Northam. McAuliffe won 62% of the vote in the five-person field. He will start off the general election favored against GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin. If he wins, McAuliffe will be just the second person since the Civil War to be elected twice to the seat. 

Lt. Governor: Incumbent Justin Fairfax (D) ran for governor, finishing a distant fourth. State Delegate Hala Ayala emerged from a crowded field, winning 37% of the vote. She will meet Republican Winsome Sears. As a result, it is all but certain that the state will elect its first-ever female lieutenant governor in November.

Attorney General: Incumbent Mark Herring fought off a strong progressive challenge to win renomination. Herring prevailed 57% to 43% over Delegate Jay Jones. Delegate Jason Miyares is the Republican nominee. Herring is seeking a third term.

House of Delegates

There were 25 contested primaries - 18 Democratic and 7 Republican. Incumbent Lee Carter (D, District 50) was defeated. He was seeking reelection while also running for governor. He finished last in that contest. Apparently, Carter will not miss his current job. Similarly, incumbent Mark Levine (D, District 45) lost while also seeking the lieutenant governor nomination. 

New Jersey

All Results >>

Statewide Offices

Governor:  Former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli won the Republican nomination, finishing just short of 50% in a four-way field. While Ciattarelli was favored, his 23% margin of victory was likely aided by Phil Rizzo (26%) and Hirsh Singh (21%) splitting the vote of the MAGA wing of the party.  Ciattarelli has an uphill battle ahead as he looks to defeat incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who was unopposed for renomination.

State Legislature

State Senate: There were seven contested primaries - four Democratic and three Republican. None of the elections ended up being particularly close.  

General Assembly: There are two assembly members in each district, thus two nominees from each primary. Incumbent Republican Serena DiMaso was defeated in District 13. She was not backed by the party for renomination - and thus not on the "party line" - a very difficult hurdle to overcome in New Jersey. A similar situation is affecting Republican BettyLou DeCroce in District 26. As of this writing, that race has not yet been called. Jay Webber (the other incumbent) and Christian Barranco are currently 1-2. Barranco, at 24% is narrowly ahead of DeCroce who is at 22%.

Overview and Live Results: Virginia Primary

June 8, 2021

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states with gubernatorial and legislative1 1Both chambers in New Jersey, state house only in Virginia. elections this year. Both states are holding their primaries Tuesday, June 8. Additionally, there is a special election to fill a vacancy in New Hampshire's state house.

New Jersey Primary >> NH State House Special Election >>

 

Virginia Primary Overview and Results

Polls close at 7:00 PM. Live results below for contested primaries. Legislative races are grouped by party. Use the drop down to select the district you want to view.

Governor

Virginia is the only state that doesn't allow governors to serve consecutive terms. As a result, Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam is not on the ballot. 

Republicans nominated businessman Glenn Youngkin at a party convention last month. 

Five Democrats, including former Gov. Terry McAuliffe, are vying for the nomination. McAuliffe, who preceded Northam, is seeking to become just the second person since the Civil War to win a second term.2 2Mills Godwin served from 1966-70 and again from 1974-78. Interestingly, he was elected as the Democratic nominee for his first term and as the Republican nominee for his second. Also on the ballot are Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax and three current or former state legislators.

McAuliffe is favored to win the nomination. He has raised more money than the other candidates combined. A recent poll gave him 49% of the vote. Jennifer Carroll Foy was the only other candidate that cracked double digits - just barely at 11%.

The current consensus rating for the general election is Likely Democratic. However, that may shift over time as both parties see a very competitive race.

Lieutenant Governor

In Virginia, the office of lieutenant governor is separately elected. Unlike the governorship, there are no term limits. However, Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax is seeking a promotion to governor, and is thus not running for reelection.  

Republicans nominated former Delegate Winsome Sears at their convention. 

There are seven Democrats on the ballot. One of them, Elizabeth Guzman has withdrawn. No clear favorite has emerged.

Attorney General

Democratic AG Mark Herring is seeking a third term. He is being challenged by Delegate Jay Jones - who has been endorsed by Gov. Northam - but is favored to win renomination. At the party convention, Republicans chose Delegate Jason Miyares as their nominee.

House of Delegates

The Virginia State House is called the House of Delegates; the more generic term is used in the results tables below. Note that the next elections for the State Senate are in 2023.

Democrats gained six seats to take control of the 100-member House of Delegates in the 2019 elections. The party holds a 55-45 edge. The legislative election forecasting site CNalysis sees the race for control this year as a toss-up

Here's an overview of the contested primaries from CNalysis.

Democratic

There are contested primaries in 18 districts.

Republican

There are contested primaries in 7 districts.

Upcoming

June 12

  • Louisiana State Senate District 7 All-Party Special Primary

June 15

  • Georgia State House Districts 34 and 156 Special Elections
  • Wisconsin State Assembly District 37 Special Primary 

Overview and Live Results: New Jersey Primary

June 8, 2021

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states with gubernatorial and legislative1 1Both chambers in New Jersey, state house only in Virginia. elections this year. Both states are holding their primaries Tuesday, June 8. Additionally, there is a special election to fill a vacancy in New Hampshire's state house.

Virginia Primary >> NH State House Special Election >>

 

New Jersey Primary Overview and Results

Polls close at 8:00 PM. Live results below for contested primaries. Legislative races are grouped by chamber and party. For example, all the State Senate Democratic Primaries are together.  Use the drop down to select the district you want to view.

Governor

Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy is unopposed. The Republican race is a four-way match-up between former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, former Somerset County Commissioner Brian Levine, Pastor Phil Rizzo, and engineer Hirsh Singh. Ciattarelli is seen as the frontrunner, although a recent poll had Singh within six points. Singh is an ardent supporter of former President Trump. This is his 5th bid for public office since 2017. 

Ciattarelli is probably the better general election candidate for Republicans. Either way, Murphy is favored to win a 2nd term in November. The current consensus rating is Likely Democratic. 

State Senate

There are 40 Senate districts in New Jersey. Democrats hold a 25-15 edge, and are expected to maintain control after November's elections. The 2021 elections are for a two-year term.2 2New Jersey has a 2-4-4 system for Senators, where the election that takes place in a redistricting year is for a two-year term. The next two elections are for four-year terms.

Democratic

The majority leader of the Senate, 86 year old Loretta Weinberg (District 37), is retiring. The two District 37 members of the Assembly, Gordon Johnson and Valerie Huttle, are vying for the nomination. The other 24 incumbents are running, with three of them (Districts 18, 20, 28) facing a primary challenge.

Republican

There are contested primaries in Districts 2 and 16, where incumbents are retiring. Also retiring is Thomas Kean Jr. in District 21; Jon Bramnick will be the nominee as the only qualifier. Steve Oroho (District 24) is the only incumbent facing a primary challenge.

General Assembly

The New Jersey State House is called the General Assembly; the more generic term is used in the results tables below. 

There are also 40 Assembly districts in New Jersey, each with the same boundaries as the corresponding State Senate district. However, each district has two assembly members. The Assembly has 52 Democrats and 28 Republicans. Assembly terms are two years. 

As there are two seats in each district, there will be two nominees from each primary.

Democratic

There are contested primaries in Districts 16, 18, 20, 31 and 37.  One incumbent in District 2, 16, 20 and both in District 37 are running for State Senate. One incumbent withdrew in District 31. 

Republican

There are contested primaries in seven districts. One incumbent in Districts 8, 21 and 39 is running for State Senate. The other incumbent in District 8 is retiring. 

Upcoming

June 12

  • Louisiana State Senate District 7 All-Party Special Primary

June 15

  • Georgia State House Districts 34 and 156 Special Elections
  • Wisconsin State Assembly District 37 Special Primary 

Overview & Live Results: New Hampshire Merrimack District 23 Special Election

June 8, 2021

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states with gubernatorial and legislative1 1Both chambers in New Jersey, state house only in Virginia. elections this year. Both states are holding their primaries Tuesday, June 8. Additionally, there is a special election to fill a vacancy in New Hampshire's state house.

New Jersey Primary >> Virginia Primary >>

 

New Hampshire State House Merrimack District 23 Special Election

The 400 member New Hampshire House is the largest one in the United States. There are currently 212 Republicans, 186 Democrats, with the GOP gaining a majority this past November. There are two vacancies, one of which will be filled in today's election. The other is in Hillsborough District 7, where Republican David Danielson died on May 22.

The 23rd Merrimack District is a multi-member district with 3 representatives. Both incumbents are Democrats. The vacancy was previously held by Democrat Samantha Fox. She resigned on January 12. 

While three Democrats prevailed in November, it was a close election, with all six candidates on the ballot getting between 15% and 18% of the vote. As such, the race is getting attention from both parties. 

Polls close at 7:00 PM ET.

Upcoming

June 12

  • Louisiana State Senate District 7 All-Party Special Primary

June 15

  • Georgia State House Districts 34 and 156 Special Elections
  • Wisconsin State Assembly District 37 Special Primary 

Overview & Live Results: Mayoral Election Runoffs in Arlington and Fort Worth

June 5, 2021

Two Texas cities will elect a mayor Saturday. These runoff elections were necessitated when no candidate received a majority of the vote in the all-party primaries held on May 1. 

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time.

City rankings are based on July 1, 2020 Census Bureau population estimates. They are for the city itself, not the associated metropolitan area.

Fort Worth

Fort Worth is the 12th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 925,000. The current mayor is Republican Betsy Price, who did not seek a 6th two-year term.  Advancing to the runoff were Deborah Peoples and Mattie Parker, who received 34% and 31% of the vote, respectively, on May 1. 

Peoples was formerly chair of the Tarrant County Democratic Party, while Parker was chief of staff for the current mayor. While the race is officially nonpartisan (NPA), endorsements have been largely along party lines, with GOP Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Price endorsing Parker. Peoples has received the endorsement of long-time Democratic U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson as well as numerous progressive groups. 

The Dallas Morning News has an overview of the runoff and how the candidates are positioned on issues.

Arlington

Arlington is the 49th largest city in the United States, with a population of about 400,000. The current mayor is Republican Jeff Williams, who won a third two-year term in 2019. He was unable to run due to term limits. Advancing to the runoff were Attorney Jim Ross and former councilman Michael Glaspie. Ross finished well ahead of the seven-person field on May 1, receiving 48% of the vote. Glaspie saw 21% support. 

All five of the candidates that did not advance to the runoff have endorsed Glaspie. Ross has the endorsement of Williams.

Upcoming June 8

  • New Jersey Primary
  • Virginia Primary
  • New Hampshire State House Merrimack District 23 Special Election

Democrat Melanie Stansbury Cruises to Victory in New Mexico U.S. House Election

June 2, 2021

Democratic State Rep. Melanie Stansbury has won the special election in New Mexico's First Congressional District. She will complete the term of Deb Haaland, who resigned in March to become Secretary of the Interior.

From the Washington Post: "Stansbury defeated state Sen. Mark Moores, who worked to make the race a referendum on Albuquerque’s rising crime rate. Republicans, hopeful that suburban voters might abandon Democrats over their embrace of police reform, were stymied by a Stansbury campaign that emphasized her own support for law enforcement funding."

With most of the vote counted, Stansbury led Moores by nearly 25%. This exceeds Haaland's 16% reelection win last November, as well as a recent poll that gave Stansbury a similar margin. It also exceeds Joe Biden's 23% margin over Donald Trump.

Once Stansbury is sworn in, Democrats will have a 220-211 edge over Republicans, with four vacancies. The next special House special election is a runoff in Texas' 6th district on July 27. Two Republicans advanced in the all-party primary last month, ensuring a Republican hold of the seat.

Overview and Live Results: New Mexico Congressional District 1 Special Election

June 1, 2021

Voters in New Mexico's first congressional district will choose a new representative Tuesday. The district includes much of Albuquerque and has been vacant since March when former Rep. Deb Haaland (D) joined the Biden Cabinet as Secretary of the Interior.

The major party nominees were chosen by their respective party committees. They are Democratic State Rep. Melanie Stansbury and Republican State Sen. Mark Moores. Also on the ballot are the Libertarian nominee, Chris Manning and independent Aubrey Dunn.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time.

The only public poll of the race showed Stansbury with a 16-point lead over Moores. Democrats have won the district by double-digits dating back to 2012; Haaland was reelected by a 58% to 42% margin last November. Joe Biden won the district by 60% to 37%. All those metrics point to Democrats holding the seat. However, the margin will be worth watching.

A central issue in the race has been crime, essentially pitting a GOP platform of law and order vs. a Democratic message of police reform and funding levels.  How this plays out Tuesday may offer some clues to how well-positioned the parties are nationally for next year's midterm elections.

Upcoming Special Elections

Four vacancies remain to be filled. All of these seats are expected to stay with the incumbent party. As a result, once the House returns to full strength (assuming no other changes along the way), the composition should match the results of the 2020 House elections:  222 Democrats, 213 Republicans.

Date District 2020  Information
July 27 TX-6 R + 9% Ron Wright (R) died in February. Two Republicans advanced in the May 1 all-party primary, ensuring a GOP hold. They are Wright's widow, Susan, and State Rep. Jake Ellzey. 
November 2 OH-11 D+60% Marcia Fudge (D) resigned in March to become Secretary of HUD. Primaries will be held August 3.
November 2 OH-15 R+27% Steve Stivers (R) resigned May 16 to become CEO of Ohio Chamber of Commerce. Primaries will be held August 3.
Jan. 11, 2022 FL-20 D+57% Alcee Hastings (D) died in April. Primaries will be held November 2.

 

Upcoming Elections

June 5

Two Texas mayoral runoffs. Here are the results from the May 1 first round, where no candidate received a majority of the vote.

  • Arlington, TX
  • Fort Worth, TX

June 8

New Jersey and Virginia are the only states with gubernatorial and legislative1 1Both chambers in New Jersey, state house only in Virginia. elections this year. Both states are holding their primaries on June 8.

  • New Jersey Primary
  • Virginia Primary
  • New Hampshire State House Merrimack District 23 Special Election

Garcia Takes Small Lead in NYC Mayoral Race

May 26, 2021

Former Sanitation Department Commissioner Kathryn Garcia has taken a small lead in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, a new poll finds. In the PIX11 News/Emerson College poll of 570 likely voters, Garcia received 21% support. Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams is statistically tied at 20%, with entrepreneur Andrew Yang close behind at 16%.

Garcia's support has grown significantly since she received the endorsement of The New York Times earlier this month. In a May 15 survey released by the same pollster, she placed 4th, with just 8% of the vote. It appears her gains largely came from previously undecided voters. Their ranks fell from 23% to 9%, while Adams and Yang saw very little change in support. 

The poll also simulated Ranked Choice Voting, which will be used for the first time in a NYC mayoral race. Garcia comes out on top there, defeating Adams by 55% to 45% in the 11th round.

The primary is on June 22. In this heavily Democratic city, the winner will be a prohibitive favorite in November. 

About Ranked Choice Voting

Approved for certain elections in a 2019 referendum, voters can select up to five candidates, ranking them in order of preference.  Initially, each voter's first choice is counted. If one candidate has a majority, that person is the winner. If not, the candidate with the lowest support is eliminated and the second choices on the associated ballots are redistributed to the remaining candidates. If no candidate has a majority, the process repeats until one candidate crosses that threshold. 

Using the poll's actual numbers, we see no candidate coming anywhere near a majority based on first choice. Given the large field and several candidates getting notable support, it is not surprising that many rounds were needed to get to a winner. 

Note that in the graphic above, the 'Ballot Test' (first choice) column includes undecided voters; those are removed for 'Round 2'. That is why there is a much more significant change in the numbers for each candidate than would be the case if just Joycelyn Taylor's votes were being reallocated.

Delayed Results

It is possible that we might not know the official winner of this primary for several weeks. While we should get first choice results on election day, the tabulation of subsequent rounds may not happen until after July 9. This is because absentee ballots aren't due until June 29 with the deadline for curable defects (e.g., signature issue) on July 9. This could be a bit of a debacle if the leader on election night ends up losing weeks later, so it will be interesting to see how the NYC Board of Elections ultimately decides to handle the situation.

 

Live Results for Alabama State House 78 Special Primary Election

May 25, 2021

In a quiet pre-holiday week, the only race we're following is a Democratic primary in Alabama. Next Tuesday, all eyes will be on the special election in New Mexico's first congressional district.  

Alabama State House District 78 Primary (Democratic)

There are 105 State House districts in Alabama. The chamber is dominated by Republicans, who hold a 76-27 advantage. There are vacancies in Districts 73 and 78. The District 73 general special election will be on July 13.

The District 78 vacancy was created by the resignation of Democrat Kirk Hatcher after he won a special election for an open State Senate seat.

On the Republican side, Loretta Grant was the only qualifier. There will be no party primary.

Four Democrats are seeking the party's nomination. If nobody gets a majority of the vote, there will be a runoff on June 22. The general special election is on September 7.

Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.

Upcoming June 1

  • New Mexico Congressional District 1 Special Election

Poll: Democrat Leads in NM-1 Special Election

May 25, 2021

A new poll for next Tuesday's special election in New Mexico's first congressional district gives Democratic nominee State Rep. Melanie Stansbury a 16-point lead over her Republican opponent, State Sen. Mark Moores. The poll was funded through a crowdsourcing effort led by RRH Elections and Elections Daily; it is the only poll of the race we've seen thus far. 

District 1 is in the central part of the state, including much of the Albuquerque area. The seat has been vacant since March, when former Rep. Deb Haaland (D) was confirmed as Secretary of the Interior. Haaland was reelected 58% to 42% in November, while Joe Biden won the district by 60% to 37% over Donald Trump.

Democrats have won this seat by double-digits dating back to 2012, and are expected to hold it in the special election. However, the margin will be worth watching, as it is the first congressional special election since TX-6 on May 1. That race saw two Republicans advance to a July 27 runoff, shutting Democrats out of an opportunity to gain a seat.

Early voting has been underway for several weeks; it concludes Saturday. On June 1, polls will close at 7:00 PM local time (9:00 PM Eastern).