Election News

Rep. Eric Swalwell Ends 2020 Presidential Bid

July 8, 2019

California Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell has ended his long-shot 2020 bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. Swalwell participated in the recent debate, where he challenged the frontrunner, former Vice President Joe Biden to "pass the torch". However, polling out both before and since the debate has indicated he was gaining little, if any traction in the crowded Democratic field. The four-term Bay Area congressman is expected to continue his career in the House, where he is a member of the Judiciary and Intelligence committees. 

Assuming nobody else qualifies to force a tiebreaker, the departure clears a spot for Montana Gov. Steve Bullock in the next debate, scheduled for July 30 and 31.



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Iowa Poll: Biden Still Leads While Harris Gains; Sanders Drops to Single Digits

July 2, 2019

Sen. Kamala Harris' debate performance has yielded notable gains in a new Suffolk University poll of Democrats likely to attend the Iowa caucuses. Former vice president Joe Biden leads with 24%, followed by Harris at 16% and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%.  Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 9% and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 6%. No other candidate received more than 2% support.

This is the first Suffolk poll of Iowa this cycle, so no apples-apples comparison can be made. However, in the table below we've compared this poll with that released by Selzer & Co. in early June.  Selzer & Co. is one of the most highly regarded pollsters in the state.

Biden saw no change between the two polls, but many of the other candidates had significant moves. Harris more than doubled her level of support and moved into 2nd place.  Sanders and Buttigieg saw the most significant drop in support. Buttigieg had been polling significantly better here than in the national polls. While he may have previously received the benefit of being from a neighboring state, he is now perhaps being more adversely impacted by the ongoing firestorm around the police shooting of Eric Logan.


CNN Poll: Harris, Warren Make Large Move After First Debate

July 1, 2019

A new CNN poll shows significant gains for Sens. Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, putting them within striking distance of former vice president Joe Biden. The survey, taken after last week's Democratic debate is compared to the prior CNN poll from early June in the table below.

To see other state and national polls, visit our Democratic Nomination page.


Harris Surges in Post-Debate Poll

June 30, 2019

California Sen. Kamala Harris' debate performance has led to a surge in support according to a new poll from Morning Consult. Harris received 12% from the 2,407 registered Democrats surveyed, doubling her pre-debate level of support.  Most of the gain came at the expense of former Vice President Joe Biden, who lost five points.  Still at 33%, Biden remains well ahead of the field.

The debate didn't seem to move the needle much for the remainder of the field. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former HUD Secretary Julian Castro, who both saw generally favorable coverage after their first night performance, saw little change in support. Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who seemed to come out on the short end of a testy exchange with Castro did see his support fall from 4% to 2%.  

Morning Consult has been conducting a weekly tracking poll of the Democratic field. The current survey was an abbreviated version of that, taken from the conclusion of the debate on June 27 through June 28.

The next Democratic debate will take place on July 30 and 31 in Detroit. It will be hosted and moderated by CNN. Montana Gov. Steve Bullock has qualified, along with the 20 that took place in the just-completed event. However, per DNC rules, a maximum of 20 candidates will be able to participate. If none of the qualifiers withdraws from the race before then, a tiebreaker will take place to eliminate one of them from the debate. 


Democratic Polling Leaders by State

June 29, 2019

Here's a page where you can see the top 3 polling Democrats in each state. There's at least one poll in 18 states, although it remains limited in most places.  

Select any of the states for more information about its nominating contest, including an estimate of delegates based on the polls.

It's likely that we'll see some shifts in the rankings as the first post-debate polls are released.


Vote Now - Who Won the Final Night of the Democratic Debate?

June 27, 2019

Cast your vote for the winner of night two of the first Democratic debate.  

Click the image below to vote. You'll then be able to view live results.

 


First Democratic Debate Concludes Tonight

June 27, 2019

The 2nd and final night of the first Democratic debate will take place beginning at 9:00 PM in Miami.  Aside from those that will appear on stage, everything will be the same as we noted last night:

The prospective nominees will be placed on stage based on a polling average calculated earlier this month, with those polling highest at the center of the stage.

The debate will be hosted and broadcast by NBC News, MSNBC and Telemundo. Broadcast time is 9:00PM to 11:00PM Eastern. The moderators are Savannah Guthrie, Lester Holt, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and José Diaz-Balart. 

There will be no opening statements. Candidates will have 60 seconds to answer questions and 30 seconds to respond to follow-ups. At the end of the two hours, each candidate can make closing remarks.

Tonight will feature four of the top five candidates in the polls to this point. Here's a New York Times overview of each candidate and some of what to watch for.

Visit 270toWin at the conclusion of the debate to participate in our snap poll of who won the night.


Warren Wins First Night Snap Poll, Ahead of Gabbard and Castro

June 27, 2019

Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren was the winner of night one of the first Democratic debate, according to 270toWin visitors participating in a survey. She received just under 34% of the approximately 1,100 valid votes cast*. Hawaii U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard finished 2nd with about 23%, followed by former housing secretary Julian Castro with 14%.

Gabbard was the winner of polls conducted by both Drudge Report and Washington Examiner

* Obvious duplicate votes were discarded


Vote Now - Who Won Night One of the Democratic Debate?

June 26, 2019

Cast your vote for the winner of night one of the first Democratic debate.  

Click the image below to vote. You'll then be able to view live results.

 


First Democratic Debate Begins Tonight

June 26, 2019

The long-awaited first Democratic debate has arrived.  It will take place over two nights in Miami, with 10 candidates appearing each night. The prospective nominees will be placed on stage based on a polling average calculated earlier this month, with those polling highest at the center of the stage.

Here's an excellent New York Times overview of each candidate and some of the dynamics to watch for on night 1.

To get the roster for each night, the candidates were first divided into those polling above 2% and those below. A random drawing was then conducted within each group. Of the five candidates polling nationally at over 5%, only Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren will appear tonight. 

The debate will be hosted and broadcast by NBC News, MSNBC and Telemundo. Broadcast time is 9:00PM to 11:00PM Eastern. The moderators are Savannah Guthrie, Lester Holt, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and José Diaz-Balart. 

There will be no opening statements. Candidates will have 60 seconds to answer questions and 30 seconds to respond to follow-ups. At the end of the two hours, each candidate can make closing remarks.

Visit 270toWin at the conclusion of the debate to participate in our snap poll of who won the night.



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