Election News

Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi announced Saturday that he will not run for reelection in 2020. Enzi, 75, was first elected to the Senate in 1996. He has been returned to the Senate for three additional terms, getting over 70% of the vote each time.

Possible replacements could include former Gov. Matt Mead or Rep. Liz Cheney. In July 2013, Cheney announced she would challenge Enzi for the Republican nomination. After failing to gain significant party support, she withdrew in early 2014. Enzi would easily defeat four other challengers on the way to winning a fourth and final term in November that year. Cheney went on to win the state's at-large seat in the U.S. House in November, 2016. 

A Federal court has ruled Ohio's congressional districts to be an unconstitutional gerrymander, ordering new districts to be drawn up for the 2020 elections.  State lawmakers have until June 14 to come up with a new map, although they will appeal the decision.

The situation is similar to that in neighboring Pennsylvania, which had to redraw congressional districts for the 2018 midterm elections. In Ohio, the GOP holds a 12-4 advantage.  Only two of those districts were decided by less than a 10% margin in 2018; all 15 incumbents that ran won reelection.

Michael Bennet of Colorado has become the 7th Senator to join the 2020 presidential race. He made the announcement Thursday during an appearance on CBS "This Morning". 

His campaign put out a video called "7,591 words". This is the number of words in the U.S. Constitution, including the 27 amendments:

Tuesday's Republican primary in the vacant North Carolina 3rd district will head to a July 9 runoff, as no candidate in the large field reached 30%. Moving on are the top-two vote getters,  State Rep. Greg Murphy and pediatrician Joan Perry. On the Democratic side, former Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas won with 50% of the vote; he will meet the eventual GOP nominee in the September 10th special election.

This seat has been vacant since the February death of long-time Rep. Walter Jones. This is a conservative district; the eventual GOP nominee will be favored to hold the seat for the party. In 2016, Donald Trump won by 24% over Hillary Clinton. In 2018, Jones ran unopposed for his 12th term, one of the only Republicans to not have a challenger that year. 

Former vice president Joe Biden's entry to the race has given him a notable - if perhaps temporary - boost in the polls, according to two national surveys of registered voters out this week.  Already the frontrunner, Biden has opened up a double digit lead on Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. 

In a Morning Consult weekly survey released late Monday, Biden had a 36-22 lead over Sanders. Last week, Biden's lead was 6 points, 30-24. A portion of this survey predated Biden's official entry to the race. A CNN/SSRS poll out Tuesday, taken after Biden joined the field, gave Biden a 24 point lead, 39-15 over the Vermont Senator. In late March, Biden's lead was 8 points, 28-20*.

Overall, Biden's lead in the 270toWin average is now 10.4%. He and Sanders remain the only candidates in double-digits. The next tier, with over 5% support, includes South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris and former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke.

The Trump reelection effort will look to expand the electoral map in 2020, campaign manager Brad Parscale said on CBS Face the Nation Sunday.

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From the transcript, with bold and 2016 margin added:

Former Vice President Joe Biden made his long-expected entry into the 2020 presidential race Thursday. Biden announced his campaign via a launch video that sought to draw a sharp contrast with President Trump.

Biden brings to 20 the number of notable Democrats in the 2020 field.  Prior to his announcement, he was the easily the most well-known name reported to be considering a run. While a few others have yet to make their plans known, the field is likely nearing completion, with the first debate* scheduled in just two months. 

A pledged delegate view has been added to the 2020 Democratic Primary map.  This shows the number of pledged delegates each location will allocate in its 2020 primary or caucus.  The total delegate view remains available, and includes 764 superdelegates. The distinction is important, as only pledged delegates will cast votes* in the first ballot at the nominating convention in Milwaukee next July. 

It will take a majority of pledged delegates - at least 1,885 of 3,768 - to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot. If subsequent ballots are needed, 2,267 of 4,532 total delegates puts a candidate over 50%. All delegates become unpledged after the first ballot. Note that these 'magic numbers' will increase later this year as the party awards bonus pledged delegates to locations meeting certain criteria. We'll have a better idea on these once each location sets its contest date, but a rough estimate is that there will be 150-200 bonus delegates.

Bernie Sanders continues to lead all candidates in the latest Granite State Poll of Democrats for the New Hampshire Primary. The Senator from neighboring Vermont gets 30% support.  Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg are statistically tied in 2nd; The three-point margin for Biden is well within the margin of error.  No other candidate received more than 5% support.

Buttigieg, who barely registered in the prior Granite State Poll seven weeks ago, saw his support rise to 15% in the latest survey. Sanders lead grew from 4% go 12% over Biden, as the two moved in opposite directions. Sanders gained 4 points, while Biden lost the same. The big loser was Sen. Kamala Harris, who fell from 10% to 4%.

For the two most well-known names, this poll is a bit at odds with one released a couple weeks back from St. Anselm College. That survey gave Biden a 23% to 16% lead over Sanders. The chart below shows those averaging over 3% in these two polls; select the image for full results.

Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton said Monday that he is entering the 2020 presidential race. His announcement video highlighted his military service and the country's economic anxiety.

Moulton is the 20th notable candidate in the historically large 2020 Democratic field. The list includes fellow Reps. Tulsi Gabbard (HI-02), Tim Ryan (OH-13) and Eric Swalwell (CA-15), as well as Moulton's former House colleagues John Delaney and Beto O'Rourke.  Of these, only O'Rourke has gotten significant traction to this point. The launch comes just days ahead of the expected entry of former vice-president Joe Biden.