New Feature: Delegate Estimates Based on Polling
By 270toWin Staff
June 4, 2019
We've added a delegate section to our Democratic state primary pages. Where one or more recent polls is available, you'll see an estimated allocation of the state's delegates based on that poll (or average). A fully interactive delegate calculator will be available later this summer.
Here's the estimated allocation of North Carolina's 110 pledged delegates based on today's Emerson College poll of the state. A 15% minimum threshold is required to win any delegates.
It is important to note that even if the above poll proves exactly right, the actual delegate count will almost certainly be different. While some Democratic delegates are pledged based on the statewide vote, each of the state's congressional districts also receives a certain number of delegates. They are pledged to candidates based on the outcome within the specific district. We are making our calculations at the district level, but basing it on the statewide vote percentages. It's that last part that is problematic, as there will obviously be district-by-district differences in the results. For those that want to get detailed, the interactive delegate calculator will let you project vote share by district.
You can find information on all Democratic primary and caucus events here.