2020 House Elections: Consensus Forecast

As of September 18, 2020

A consensus outlook for the 2020 House elections based on the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections. Only congressional districts rated safe by all three are shown in the darkest shade. You can also view this forecast as a table.

September 18: AR-2 and CO-3 move from Likely to Leans Republican; ME-2 from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

no 2020 election
no 2020 election

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up
         
       

Note: This color is used for Libertarian (MI-3)

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As of Sept. 18, 2020 Details >>

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House Elections 2020

Current 232 198 1 4*
Consensus Forecast 224 188 0 23
Forecast

Forecast: Totals on interactive map
* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Consensus Map House(a) President(b)
AK-AL Don Young
1973 24th
6.5% 15.2%
AR-2 French Hill
2015 3rd
6.3% 10.7%
AZ-6 David Schweikert
2011 5th
10.3% 10.0%
CA-21 TJ Cox
2019 1st
0.5% 15.5%
CA-25 Mike Garcia
2020 1st
8.7% 6.7%
CA-48 Harley Rouda
2019 1st
7.1% 1.7%
CO-3 Scott Tipton
2011 5th
7.9% 12.0%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
FL-15 Ross Spano
2019 1st
6.0% 10.0%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
2019 1st
1.7% 16.3%
GA-6 Lucy McBath
2019 1st
1.0% 1.5%
GA-7 Rob Woodall
2011 5th
0.1% 6.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
IA-1 Abby Finkenauer
2019 1st
5.0% 3.5%
IA-2 David Loebsack
2007 7th
12.1% 4.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
IA-3 Cindy Axne
2019 1st
2.1% 3.5%
IL-13 Rodney Davis
2013 4th
1.1% 5.5%
IN-5 Susan Brooks
2013 4th
13.5% 11.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
ME-2 Jared Golden
2019 1st
1.0% 10.3%
MI-3 Justin Amash
2011 5th
11.2% 9.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
MI-6 Fred Upton
1987 17th
4.5% 8.4%
MN-1 Jim Hagedorn
2019 1st
0.4% 14.9%
MN-7 Collin Peterson
1991 15th
4.2% 30.8%
MO-2 Ann Wagner
2013 4th
3.9% 10.3%
MT-AL Greg Gianforte
2017 2nd
4.6% 20.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NC-2 George Holding
2013 4th
N/A 24.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NC-6 Mark Walker
2015 3rd
N/A 21.5%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NC-8 Richard Hudson
2013 4th
N/A 9.1%
NE-2 Don Bacon
2017 2nd
1.9% 2.2%
NJ-2 Jeff Van Drew
2019 1st
7.6% 4.6%
NJ-3 Andy Kim
2019 1st
1.2% 6.2%
NJ-7 Tom Malinowski
2019 1st
5.0% 1.1%
NM-2 Xochitl Torres Small
2019 1st
1.8% 10.2%
NY-1 Lee Zeldin
2015 3rd
6.0% 12.3%
NY-2 Peter King
1993 14th
6.7% 9.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NY-11 Max Rose
2019 1st
5.9% 9.8%
NY-22 Anthony Brindisi
2019 1st
1.2% 15.5%
NY-24 John Katko
2015 3rd
6.2% 3.6%
OH-1 Steve Chabot
2011 5th
4.2% 6.6%
OK-5 Kendra Horn
2019 1st
1.3% 13.4%
PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick
2017 2nd
2.5% 2.0%
PA-8 Matthew Cartwright
2013 4th
9.2% 9.5%
PA-10 Scott Perry
2013 4th
2.6% 8.9%
SC-1 Joe Cunningham
2019 1st
1.3% 13.1%
TX-7 Lizzie Fletcher
2019 1st
5.0% 1.4%
TX-10 Michael McCaul
2005 8th
3.9% 9.0%
TX-21 Chip Roy
2019 1st
2.8% 10.0%
TX-22 Pete Olson
2009 6th
4.9% 7.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
TX-23 Will Hurd
2015 3rd
0.4% 3.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
TX-24 Kenny Marchant
2005 8th
3.2% 6.2%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
UT-4 Ben McAdams
2019 1st
0.2% 6.7%
VA-2 Elaine Luria
2019 1st
2.2% 3.4%
VA-5 Denver Riggleman
2019 1st
6.5% 11.1%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
VA-7 Abigail Spanberger
2019 1st
1.9% 6.5%