2020 House Elections: Consensus Forecast

As of July 2, 2020

A consensus outlook for the 2020 House elections based on the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections. Only congressional districts rated safe by all three are shown in the darkest shade. You can also view this forecast as a table.

July 2: AZ-6 moves from Likely to Leans Republican. TX-3, TX-6, TX-25 move from Safe to Likely Republican.

no 2020 election
no 2020 election

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up
         
       

Note: This color is used for Libertarian (MI-3)

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As of July 2, 2020 Details >>

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House Elections 2020

Current 233 197 1 4*
Consensus Forecast 223 193 0 19
Forecast

Forecast: Totals on interactive map
* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Consensus Map House(a) President(b)
AZ-6 David Schweikert
2011 5th
10.3% 10.0%
CA-21 TJ Cox
2019 1st
0.5% 15.5%
CA-25 Mike Garcia
2020 1st
8.7% 6.7%
CA-39 Gil Cisneros
2019 1st
3.1% 8.6%
CA-48 Harley Rouda
2019 1st
7.1% 1.7%
FL-15 Ross Spano
2019 1st
6.0% 10.0%
FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
2019 1st
1.7% 16.3%
GA-6 Lucy McBath
2019 1st
1.0% 1.5%
GA-7 Rob Woodall
2011 5th
0.1% 6.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
IA-1 Abby Finkenauer
2019 1st
5.0% 3.5%
IA-2 David Loebsack
2007 7th
12.1% 4.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
IA-3 Cindy Axne
2019 1st
2.1% 3.5%
IL-13 Rodney Davis
2013 4th
1.1% 5.5%
IL-14 Lauren Underwood
2019 1st
4.9% 3.9%
IN-5 Susan Brooks
2013 4th
13.5% 11.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
KS-3 Sharice Davids
2019 1st
9.6% 1.2%
ME-2 Jared Golden
2019 1st
1.0% 10.3%
MI-3 Justin Amash
2011 5th
11.2% 9.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
MI-8 Elissa Slotkin
2019 1st
3.8% 6.7%
MN-1 Jim Hagedorn
2019 1st
0.4% 14.9%
MN-7 Collin Peterson
1991 15th
4.2% 30.8%
MO-2 Ann Wagner
2013 4th
3.9% 10.3%
NC-2 George Holding
2013 4th
N/A 24.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NC-6 Mark Walker
2015 3rd
N/A 21.5%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NE-2 Don Bacon
2017 2nd
1.9% 2.2%
NH-1 Chris Pappas
2019 1st
8.5% 1.6%
NJ-2 Jeff Van Drew
2019 1st
7.6% 4.6%
NJ-3 Andy Kim
2019 1st
1.2% 6.2%
NJ-7 Tom Malinowski
2019 1st
5.0% 1.1%
NM-2 Xochitl Torres Small
2019 1st
1.8% 10.2%
NY-2 Peter King
1993 14th
6.7% 9.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
NY-11 Max Rose
2019 1st
5.9% 9.8%
NY-22 Anthony Brindisi
2019 1st
1.2% 15.5%
NY-24 John Katko
2015 3rd
6.2% 3.6%
OH-1 Steve Chabot
2011 5th
4.2% 6.6%
OK-5 Kendra Horn
2019 1st
1.3% 13.4%
PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick
2017 2nd
2.5% 2.0%
PA-8 Matthew Cartwright
2013 4th
9.2% 9.5%
PA-10 Scott Perry
2013 4th
2.6% 8.9%
SC-1 Joe Cunningham
2019 1st
1.3% 13.1%
TX-7 Lizzie Fletcher
2019 1st
5.0% 1.4%
TX-10 Michael McCaul
2005 8th
3.9% 9.0%
TX-21 Chip Roy
2019 1st
2.8% 10.0%
TX-22 Pete Olson
2009 6th
4.9% 7.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
TX-23 Will Hurd
2015 3rd
0.4% 3.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
TX-24 Kenny Marchant
2005 8th
3.2% 6.2%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
TX-32 Colin Allred
2019 1st
6.3% 1.9%
UT-4 Ben McAdams
2019 1st
0.2% 6.7%
VA-2 Elaine Luria
2019 1st
2.2% 3.4%
VA-7 Abigail Spanberger
2019 1st
1.9% 6.5%