2020 House Elections: Consensus Forecast

As of November 2, 2020

A consensus outlook for the 2020 House elections based on the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections as well as the probabilistic FiveThirtyEight model. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by all four of these projections are shown in the darkest shade. You can also view this forecast as a table and in state view.


November 2: AR-2 moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up; CA-39, NV-3 Likely to Leans Democratic; MN-7, NY-24 Toss-up to Leans Republican; NJ-5 Likely to Safe Democratic; NY-22, TX-24 Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

no 2020 election
no 2020 election

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up

Note: This color is used for Libertarian (MI-3)

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House Elections 2020

Current 233 197 1 4*
Consensus Forecast 232 182 0 21
Forecast

Forecast: Totals on interactive map
* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Consensus Map House(a) President(b)
AK-AL Don Young
1973 24th
6.5% 15.2%
Alyse Galvin
Don Young*
AR-2 French Hill
2015 3rd
6.3% 10.7%
Joyce Elliott
French Hill*
AZ-6 David Schweikert
2011 5th
10.3% 10.0%
Hiral Tipirneni
David Schweikert*
CA-21 TJ Cox
2019 1st
0.5% 15.5%
TJ Cox*
David Valadao
CA-25 Mike Garcia
2020 1st
8.7% 6.7%
Christy Smith
Mike Garcia*
CA-39 Gil Cisneros
2019 1st
3.1% 8.6%
Gil Cisneros*
Young Kim
CA-48 Harley Rouda
2019 1st
7.1% 1.7%
Harley Rouda*
Michelle Steel
CO-3 Scott Tipton
2011 5th
7.9% 12.0%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
Diane Bush
Lauren Boebert
FL-15 Ross Spano
2019 1st
6.0% 10.0%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2020 election.
Alan Cohn
Scott Franklin
FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
2019 1st
1.7% 16.3%
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell*
Carlos Gimenez
GA-7 Rob Woodall
2011 5th
0.1% 6.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Carolyn Bourdeaux
Rich McCormick
IA-1 Abby Finkenauer
2019 1st
5.0% 3.5%
Abby Finkenauer*
Ashley Hinson
IA-2 David Loebsack
2007 7th
12.1% 4.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Rita Hart
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
IA-3 Cindy Axne
2019 1st
2.1% 3.5%
Cindy Axne*
David Young
IL-13 Rodney Davis
2013 4th
1.1% 5.5%
Betsy Londrigan
Rodney Davis*
IN-5 Susan Brooks
2013