Election News

Democrats: Polls have varied widely in this race, although many of the most recent ones have shown a slight lead for Hillary Clinton. It appears that turnout for the Sanders campaign will be crucial in determining whether the Vermont Senator can score an important early win. Either way, it is looking good for Sanders in next week's New Hampshire primary. A new poll out this AM has him up by 31 points over Clinton.

Seven members of each party are leaving to run for the U.S. Senate; a single Democrat is running for governor with another running for local office. The remaining six Democrats and 15 Republicans are retiring (or have not announced plans to run for another public office).

The full list of departures, as of February 1, follows:

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by 45% to 42%. Both Clinton and Sanders made small gains over the last poll, with the net margin not changing much.

The poll is conducted by Selzer & Company, the best pollster in politics, and sponsored by the Des Moines Register.

As might be expected, the paper was not as glowing about the Republican field, finding businessman Donald Trump and Texas Senator Ted Cruz "equally objectionable for different reasons." In a lesser-of-evils pick, the times gives the nod to Kasich: "...though a distinct underdog, is the only plausible choice for Republicans tired of the extremism and inexperience on display in this race."

Iowa Poll

The pre-caucus Des Moines Register Poll, conducted by the well-respected pollster Selzer & Company, will be released this evening at 6:45PM ET. This should be our final look at how Iowa is shaping up before the actual caucuses take place. Their last poll showed Ted Cruz with a three point lead over Donald Trump, down from ten points before Christmas.

More recent Iowa polls have shown Trump ahead, averaging a 6 point average lead over Cruz. Marco Rubio has been showing signs of strength as well, possibly helped by the Register's recent endorsement of him.

Trump leads by 7 in Iowa, the poll found. This is consistent with most recent polls, as is his much larger 19 point lead in New Hampshire. There's been less polling in South Carolina, although here too there's not much new with Trump's 16 point lead.

Marco Rubio has made nice gains in Iowa; this latest poll has him at 18%, his highest number there yet. The top 3 candidates in Iowa now have support from 75% of likely caucus goers. In New Hampshire, it continues to lok like a tight battle for 2nd, with Cruz, Rubio and John Kasich basically tied, with Bush and Christie within the margin of error. 

For the Democrats, the real battle seems to be for Iowa. Sanders has pulled well ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire, while Clinton continues to dominate the polling in South Carolina.

 It will be interesting to see how the polls from New Hampshire and South Carolina change after Iowa has had its say.

Overall, Trump holds about a five point leader in the 270toWin Iowa average, with much higher volatility across pollsters, ranging from a two point lead for Cruz to an eleven point lead for Trump. Rubio has been consistent in the low teens, and looks likely to finish third.

Weather

Part of the reason the Iowa polls are so varied is that the caucus format is difficult for pollsters to model; much depends on which organization does the best job at getting its supporters to the caucus sessions.  One area that impacts turnout is the weather. At this point, the National Weather Service is showing pretty benign weather for next Monday. Des Moines shows mostly cloudy, with a high of 34, while the Cedar Rapids forecast is for a slight chance of snow with a high of 33. These highs are close to the average for early February.

How could Bloomberg win? Let's say he's able to win a few states and that nobody in the race reaches 270 electoral votes. In that case, the U.S. House would pick the president, with one vote per state. Republicans control the majority of state delegations so a Sanders or Clinton choice would be doubtful. Perhaps a centrist independent would be more appealing than Trump to at least some Republican states who might then join up with some Democratic delegations to give the presidency to Bloomberg. An absolute majority of the states (26) must agree on the winner.

Iowa has 30 Republican delegates, to be allocated proportionately. This is about 1.2% of total Republican delegates. 1,237 delegates are needed for the nomination. All primaries and caucuses prior to March 15, except South Carolina, will allocate proportionately. 

Democrats:  Three polls today, two of which show Clinton ahead by 9 points while a CNN/ORC poll has Sanders with an 8 point lead. While CNN/ORC perhaps the most well-known of today's pollsters, it is again worth calling out the small sample size for that poll (as well as the Emerson College one). Appears to be anyone's guess who is actually ahead at this point.

Iowa has 52 Democratic delegates, to be allocated proportionately (some statewide, some by Congressional District). This is about 1.1% of total Democratic delegates. 2,383 delegates are needed for the nomination. 

While Kasich is gaining traction in New Hampshire, he's not seeing that translate in Iowa, where he's barely registering at 3% or nationally, where he's at about 2%.

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders had a 6 point lead over Hillary Clinton, consistent with the average of recent polls.

As noted, the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire are much closer, with Sanders leading in most recent New Hampshire polling. The challenge for the Sanders campaign will be to close strongly and outperform expectations in those two early states, hoping that the added visibility this will bring will begin to move the needle in his direction. As of now --where polling is available -- Clinton has a large lead in Nevada and South Carolina, as well as the many states that will vote on Super Tuesday March 1st.