Election News

Coloring reflects the survey results. Within five points is shown as toss-up, while a spread of greater than 10 points yields the darkest blue/red. The lighter blue/red is for spreads of 6-10 points. If there was more than one poll of a state during the five-day window, we categorized based on the average. 

The various projections have converged in recent weeks, as forecasters are likely giving more weight to polls (vs. earlier in the cycle).

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.

Florida: Clinton leads Trump by five points, both head-head and in a four-way race. The two were tied in the last Quinnipiac survey. The five point lead is slightly larger than the roughly three point lead for Clinton in the polling average. 

North Carolina: Clinton leads by three points in both heats; this is right in line with the state's polling average. Both Clinton and Trump have gained, as the number of undecided voters, or those interested in Gary Johnson, has declined.

Ohio: Trump is ahead by three points here head-head, a lead that grows to five points when 3rd parties are included. This is a couple points better than the polling average. Trump has led most Ohio polls since early September. As in North Carolina, undecided and 3rd party support has declined.

Pennsylvania: Little changed from the last Quinnipiac poll, Clinton leads by 4-5 points. This is a couple points better than the polling average.

Looking at the polls where third parties are included, New Mexico is probably Johnson's best chance at winning a state. It also appears that his support in the state impacts Hillary Clinton much more than Donald Trump. This opens up at least the possibility of Trump winning the state, an outcome that would otherwise be highly unlikely.

Nate Silver wrote a very good piece over the weekend discussing the implications of a Johnson win in the state, particularly what would happen if that victory meant neither Clinton nor Trump reached 270 electoral votes. He used the following map to illustrate; click it for an interactive version:

A strong, but not winning performance by Gary Johnson in New Mexico could also hand the state to Donald Trump. In the above scenario, that would give him 271 electoral votes and a win in November.

For those interested, we also have a new variant of the polling map. This 'no toss-ups' version colors the state for Clinton or Trump unless there is an exact tie in the polls, as there now is in Nevada. You can get to these polling maps, as well as the latest forecast from a number of other sites, on our Presidential Election Forecasts page.

These results are not too far out of line with the polling averages for these five states which, aside from Virginia, remain toss-ups on the electoral map based on polls.

Since we didn't ask other questions, it is hard to know the reason for this shift. However, we don't recall ever seeing anything close to this kind of a time-based change of opinion in our prior straw polls. For whatever reason, first impressions did not last after Monday's debate.

The voting is still open. We'll update the results later today.

At the state level, recent polling also points to a tight race. The map below highlights all states* with a current polling spread of five points or less. 11 states, representing 156 electoral votes. Keep in mind that only four states were decided by five points or less in 2012. 

The forecast models from FiveThirtyEight, from which we've derived electoral maps (updated hourly), have also tightened considerably in recent days. 

The presidential election is in 43 days. Some early voting is already underway.

* For this map, we've excluded Texas and Mississippi due to limited polling, all of which was prior to the recent Trump surge. We do continue to show those as toss-up, along with additional categorizations (leaning, likely) in the electoral map based on polls.