June 5, 2019
We're tracking general election polls. Filter by state and/or prospective Democratic nominee.
Donald Trump trails in Michigan, one of the 'blue wall' states he flipped to win the 2016 presidential election, a new poll finds. The survey of 600 likely voters shows the two leading Democrats, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, with a double-digit lead over Trump. The race becomes more competitive against three other prospective nominees.
Trump won Michigan by 0.23% over Hillary Clinton in 2016; the closest margin in the nation. It was the first time the state had voted for a Republican since George H.W. Bush won here in 1988.
While the poll shows Michigan voters appear lukewarm on giving Trump another four years, they also seem inclined to let the president complete his term. The same set of likely voters opposed impeachment by 53-40%, although they were split evenly on whether Trump had obstructed justice.
The Amash Factor
The pollster, Glengariff Group, also looked at Biden vs. Trump if Michigan Rep. Justin Amash was in the race as the Libertarian nominee. Amash received nationwide attention recently by becoming the first - and only -GOP member of Congress to say Trump's conduct met the threshold for impeachment.
The survey found Amash would receive 10% of the vote, with Biden's lead over Trump dropping from 12 points to six. Interestingly, most of the Amash support would come from Biden, with Trump only losing two points, going from 41% to 39%.
At the presidential level, the Magnolia State has voted for only one Democratic nominee since 1960. The population demographics drive remarkably consistent results every four years.
Rescheduled from April 4, this party primary was conducted exclusively by mail
15 seats were updated, 7 of which moved to safe for the November elections
This far out, polling may be of limited predictive value, but it will become more and more relevant as November draws closer
Having a long history of conducting elections by mail, the state was able to keep its original May 19 primary date. Live results for contested presidential and congressional contests