Election News

Four of the more interesting primary contests remaining take place Tuesday in Massachusetts.  These are all Democratic contests in safely blue seats; the primary winners will be prohibitive favorites in the general election.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. Live results will appear below after that time.

Senate: Sen. Ed Markey is seeking a third term. He is being challenged by Rep. Joe Kennedy III (MA-04).  Something has to give. As the Washington Post notes, "Markey has never lost an election in his 47 years of public service, but no Kennedy has ever lost an election in Massachusetts." Kennedy led in the polls earlier this year but more recent polls have swung strongly in the incumbent's favor. Markey currently has an 11 point lead in the Real Clear Politics average.

The 270toWin state history pages have been updated to include recent congressional elections.  You'll be able to see the winning party for regularly scheduled general elections held from 1982-2018.

The example below shows the available information for Iowa.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

President

• Most Recent Polls:  A listing of the latest polls in reverse chronological order.  You can also choose to see the most recent poll in each state where there has been at least one poll. Choose a location to see all polls and a calculated average.
• Polling Averages by State: The 270toWin polling average for each state. Default sort is most recent poll, with options to sort by state, competitiveness (closest states first) and highest to lowest Biden or Trump %. Select the state name for its voting history. Select the 'All Polls' text to see all polls. There's an option to display polls where 3rd party candidates have been specifically named. Note that this 3rd party polling has been very limited.
• Electoral Map Based on Polling: This interactive map categorizes each state based on the spread between Trump and Biden. Use the timeline above the map to see how the map has changed each day since late May. The 2016 actual spread between Trump and Clinton is used where there are no polls.^{1 1}Many states are polled infrequently, so this map can sometimes show unlikely outcomes. For example, the only Arkansas poll, as of the date of this article, showed a two-point Trump lead. Therefore, the state shows as toss-up on the map, despite it being one of the most GOP-leaning in the country.  
• Direct Links: Use the map below to link directly to the presidential polls in each state. Where district-level polling is available in Maine or Nebraska, it will be displayed. These pages also have the 'When did it last happen' feature.  Curious when the last time a Democrat won Florida while a Republican won the presidency? This will tell you (1924).  States in gray have not been polled, but you can still link to them for the historical feature.

One of the largest surprises in the 2018 midterms occurred in Oklahoma's 5th congressional district. Democrat Kendra Horn defeated incumbent Republican Steve Russell by about 1.5% in this Oklahoma City-area district. Just two years earlier, Russell had been reelected by 20%, while Donald Trump won the district by more than 13 points over Hillary Clinton. Horn became the first Democrat elected in the district since the 1970s and the first in any Oklahoma district since 2010.

The district is a top GOP target in 2020. We're about to find out who the party's nominee will be. Businesswoman Terry Neese and state Sen. Stephanie Bice meet in a runoff election. Neither received a majority of the vote in a nine-way primary held June 30. Neese finished first with 36%, while Bice took second with 25%.

Polls close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time. Live results will appear below after that time.

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.

The 2020 primary calendar will soon wrap up. Four East Coast states remain; all will have their contests in the first half of September. There is also a GOP runoff in Oklahoma next Tuesday. In terms of a highly competitive general election, that runoff is the only relevant race remaining.

Freshman Republican Ross Spano was defeated in his bid for renomination Tuesday. Spano, who has been under investigation for campaign finance violations, lost to Lakeland Commissioner Scott Franklin.

In the general election, Franklin will face off against former investigative journalist Alan Cohn, who won the Democratic nomination. The consensus rating for this district, which sits between Tampa and Orlando is 'Leans Republican'. Spano won his seat by six points in 2018.

Three states hold primaries Tuesday. Overview and live results for some of the more interesting races is below, along with a link to all contested congressional primaries in each state.

Polls Close (Eastern Time)

_{Your individual polling place may have different hours. Do not rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.} 

_{In Florida, all but congressional districts 1 and 2 in the state's Panhandle are in the Eastern Time Zone. (AT) is Alaska Time, (HT) is Hawaii-Aleutian Time.}

Results by State

Alaska

Senate: Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is seeking a 2nd term; he has no primary opposition.  The likely Democratic nominee is actually an independent, orthopedic surgeon Al Gross.  In Alaska, non-Democrats are allowed to compete for the party's nomination.  

Sullivan is favored in the general election - most forecasters have the race as 'likely Republican'. However, Gross has been competitive in fundraising and trailed Sullivan by only five points in an early July poll. 

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Drew Savicki, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Drew via email or on Twitter @DrewSav.