October 1, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball has updated its election outlook, making 18 total ratings changes to its Electoral College and congressional forecasts.
October 1 update and analysis
Maps of the current Crystal Ball projections follow. (These images will automatically update for any subsequent ratings changes). Click or tap any of them for an interactive version.
October 1: Delaware, Rhode Island move from Likely to Safe Democratic; Maine (at-large) Leans to Likely Democratic; ME-2 Leans Republican to Toss-up; Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
October 1: Alaska moves from Likely to Leans Republican; Colorado from Leans to Likely Democratic.
October 1: AZ-6, MN-1, NJ-2, VA-5 move from Leans Republican to Toss-up; CA-21 Leans Democratic to Toss-up; FL-13, IL-6 Likely to Safe Democratic; IA-1 Toss-up to Leans Democratic; IL-14, ME-2, TX-7 Leans to Likely Democratic, MT-AL Likely to Leans Republican.
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.
Changes made to the electoral map, as well as to individual races for Senate, House and Governor.