October 4, 2020
Politico reports that GOP Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania will not seek a third term in 2022. Toomey first won election to the Senate in 2010, narrowly defeating Democrat Joe Sestak.
That 2010 election was notable: the prior year, long-time incumbent Republican Sen. Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic Party; he was defeated by Sestak in the primary.
Toomey had a close reelection in 2016, winning by about 1.5% over Democrat Katie McGinty. He becomes the second Senator to opt out of the 2022 cycle; North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr (R) previously said his 2016 run would be his last.
34 Senate seats will be up in 2022. This includes 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats. Special elections this year - one in Arizona and one in Georgia - will determine the final partisan composition in 2022.
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.
Changes made to the electoral map, as well as to individual races for Senate, House and Governor.