Forecasts in the 2020 Consensus Electoral Map

The Consensus Electoral Map aggregates the ratings from the following to come up with a composite forecast for the 2020 presidential election. More maps will be added as additional forecasts come online in the weeks ahead.

Full-time Analysts

Statistical Models

Prediction Markets

Media Analysis

To arrive at the consensus map, we assign a party-specific point value to each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, toss-up). From there we calculate the average rating. Those average ratings determine the consensus rating, which may or may not be the most frequent one.

Only states rated safe by eight or more of the ten forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of blue or red on the map. This allows for a more inclusive look at states that could be competitive in the right circumstances.