Consensus Electoral Map with No Toss-ups

September 30, 2020

Our consensus electoral map combines nine different forecasts to come up with a consensus forecast for the 2020 presidential election. It is a mixture of full-time analysts (e.g., Cook Political), statistical models (e.g., FiveThirtyEight), prediction markets (e.g., PredictIt) and media analysis (e.g., CNN).

Each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, tilt, toss-up) has a point value.1 1A ten-point scale is used. Positive and negative values are used to offset disagreements across forecasters about who is ahead. Toss-ups receive a score of zero. We add up the points for each state and divide the total by nine to get the average.

Original Consensus Map

In the original consensus map, where the average falls along the scale determines how the state is rated.  The image below reflects the current ratings. Click or tap for an interactive version.

 

No-Tossup Consensus Map

Ultimately, however, there will be a winner and loser in each state, with the winner getting all the electoral votes. This second version of the map map reflects that, awarding the state to Biden or Trump if they have the higher net score, regardless of how large or small it is. There are no toss-ups unless the state is exactly tied.

Note that as we publish this (September 30), North Carolina and Florida are extremely close - a small shift in a single forecast could move either of those back into the Trump column.

The image below reflects the current ratings. Click or tap for an interactive version.

 
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