September 30, 2020
Our consensus electoral map combines nine different forecasts to come up with a consensus forecast for the 2020 presidential election. It is a mixture of full-time analysts (e.g., Cook Political), statistical models (e.g., FiveThirtyEight), prediction markets (e.g., PredictIt) and media analysis (e.g., CNN).
Each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, tilt, toss-up) has a point value.1 We add up the points for each state and divide the total by nine to get the average.
Original Consensus Map
In the original consensus map, where the average falls along the scale determines how the state is rated. The image below reflects the current ratings. Click or tap for an interactive version.
No-Tossup Consensus Map
Ultimately, however, there will be a winner and loser in each state, with the winner getting all the electoral votes. This second version of the map map reflects that, awarding the state to Biden or Trump if they have the higher net score, regardless of how large or small it is. There are no toss-ups unless the state is exactly tied.
Note that as we publish this (September 30), North Carolina and Florida are extremely close - a small shift in a single forecast could move either of those back into the Trump column.
The image below reflects the current ratings. Click or tap for an interactive version.
Highly competitive contests for president and Senate have placed the Peach State front and center for this upcoming election.
The forecaster sees Democrats gaining between five and 15 seats in the 2020 election
After swinging sharply to Donald Trump in 2016, the state is among the most competitive in 2020. A closely-contested Senate race may help determine control of that chamber.
Currently at 233 seats - 218 needed - Democrats have a high probability of retaining control after the 2020 election.
The Sunshine State's competitiveness and large electoral bounty will once again play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.