April 1, 2016
The electoral map for a Clinton vs. Trump match-up in November points to a relatively easy victory for the likely Democratic nominee, according to an updated forecast by the team at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. This is their first attempt at projecting the 2016 election based on a match-up of current frontrunners.
The prior generic forecast looked a lot like the electoral map we've grown accustomed to in the last several presidential elections, favoring a Democrat by 247-206, with 85 electoral votes in toss-up states. The Clinton-Trump map eliminates all toss-ups, moving them to the Clinton column as 'Leans Democratic'. The ratings of seven other states, plus NE-2, were shifted in Clinton's direction.
The article also discusses a possible Clinton-Cruz match-up. While this would likely be somewhat closer, Clinton would seem to be favored here as well. In either case, the polarized nature of the country makes a Democratic landslide, like in the 1964 Johnson-Goldwater election, unlikely.
An interactive version of the forecast map follows. Use it to create and share your own 2016 presidential election forecast.
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March 30, 2016
Marco Rubio's five Alaska delegates were returned to him this week, the result of a request granted by the State Republican Party. Donald Trump lost three of those, Ted Cruz two.
Per Alaska rules, delegates earned by those who withdraw from the race are redistributed based on the state's proportional allocation method. In his letter to the Party, Rubio argued that he had suspended his campaign, but had not withdrawn from the race.
While small in number, any loss of delegates by frontrunner Donald Trump increases the likelihood that he will not receive the necessary 1,237 before the July Convention in Cleveland. Trump needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination.
This is another reason why campaigns are usually suspended and not formally ended.
March 30, 2016
Ted Cruz has opened up a 10 point lead on Donald Trump in Wisconsin, per the latest survey from the respected polling unit at Marquette University Law School. This result is directionally consistent with recent polls showing a shift in the race, but it is the first survey to find the Texas Senator with the outright lead, beyond the margin of error.
Interestingly, Trump's support is unchanged, at 30%, since the last Marquette survey in late February. Both Cruz and John Kasich saw significant gains, picking up voters that previously supported a now-withdrawn candidate or who have made up their mind in the final few weeks before the April 5 primary.
On the Republican side, Wisconsin has 42 delegates, 18 are winner take all for the statewide winner, while the other 24 are winner take all based on the vote within each of the state's 8 congressional districts (3 per district).
For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton by 4 points. The last Marquette survey showed Sanders leading by one point.
March 30, 2016
This afternoon, Marquette University Law School will release its final poll before next Tuesday's Wisconsin Republican primary. In the school's last survey, in late February, Donald Trump held a 30%-19% lead over Ted Cruz, with John Kasich below 10%.
A few polls out in the interim have shown a tightening race, with Trump and Cruz now tied in the 270toWin polling average, while John Kasich has been gaining significant ground.
The Marquette poll is seen by many as the 'gold standard' in Wisconsin, so it will be interesting to see where it ends up.
Wisconsin has 42 delegates, 18 are winner take all for the statewide winner, while the other 24 are winner take all based on the vote within each of the state's 8 congressional districts (3 per district).
There has been less polling for the Democratic primary. The last Marquette survey showed the race a dead heat.
The poll often includes general election match-ups as well.
March 27, 2016
Bernie Sanders cruised to easy wins in all three Democratic caucus states Saturday, surpassing 1,000 total delegates in the process. The Vermont Senator received about 70% of the vote in Washington state and Hawaii, while scoring north of 80% in vote equivalents in Alaska. Sanders won 30 of the 41 total Alaska/Hawaii delegates and, at this point, has won 25 of 34 allocated delegates in Washington.
Here's where things stand as of this morning. Sanders has narrowed Clinton's lead by 35 delegates:
Another 67 delegates remain to be allocated in Washington. An estimate by The Greenpapers (as of Sunday AM) gives Sanders a 74-27 total for the state, meaning he would win about 49 of the remaining 67 delegates there.
Despite the good night for Sanders, Clinton now needs less than 1/3 of the remaining delegates to reach 2,383 and secure the Democratic nomination. For Sanders to have a real shot, he'll need to build on Saturday's performance in Wisconsin on April 5 and then, more importantly, in the Northeast later in April. Wisconsin is certainly doable; but Sanders trails badly in delegate-rich New York (April 19) and in many of the April 26 states. The Sanders campaign is planning a strong push in New York.
March 26, 2016
Democratic caucuses are being held today in Washington state, Alaska and Hawaii. No polling to go on, but Sanders has generally done well in caucus states, particularly those with smaller minority populations.
Heading into today, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 1,223 to 920 in delegates won at events; the totals are 1,691 to 949 when superdelegates that have committed to one candidate or the other are included. 2,383 delegates are needed to win the Democratic nomination.
As a reminder, all Democratic contests allocate delegates on a proportional basis, with some of those delegates allocated on an at-large basis, the remainder based on results in each individual congressional district. There is a 15% minimum to qualify for any delegates.
Washington: By far the largest prize on Saturday, with 101 delegates up for grabs. The Seattle Times reports that caucuses run from 10AM to about noon, Pacific Time (1-3PM ET). That may mean we'll have some results during the afternoon.
Hawaii: The state, one of the most liberal in the nation, will award 25 delegates today. This WSJ article points out that the state's large Asian popoulation could provide some early insight into how California will vote in June. (Not sure about that given that California is a primary and 2 1/2 months away, but an interesting premise). The caucus (actually they are calling it a 'Presidential Preference Poll') begins at 1PM local time (7PM ET).
Alaska: The smallest of the day's events, the state will award 16 delegates. Alaska only has one congressional district. Caucuses begin at 10AM local time (2PM ET).
After today, the next event on the Democratic calendar is the April 5 Wisconsin primary.
March 24, 2016
Many notable pollsters have picked this week to release national polls looking at prospective match-ups for the November election. The main takeaway appears to be: The less likely a candidate is to get his or her party's nomination, the better they perform in the general election.
On the Republican side, John Kasich swept all 6 polls when pitted against Hillary Clinton, winning by an average of 6.5 points. On the other end of the spectrum, both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton average a double-digit lead over Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. The closest match-up for Democratic frontrunner Clinton appears to be with Ted Cruz.
While these numbers are interesting, they ultimately don't tell us much. Trailing for their party's nominations, Kasich and Sanders have been subject to fewer attacks and are still not as well-known across party lines as Clinton and Trump, who both consistently have high unfavorable ratings in polls. In addition, the only polls that ultimately matter are those at the state level.
March 23, 2016
As attention begins to turn toward April contests, a new poll shows a competitive primary for both parties shaping up in Wisconsin. The study, from Emerson College gives Ted Cruz a 36-35 lead over Donald Trump on the Republican side, while Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 50-44 for the Democrats.
These are the first polls in the state since the last release by the respected Marquette University Law School in late February. At that time, Marquette found Trump with a 10 point lead over Marco Rubio, who has since left the race and 11 points over Ted Cruz. The Democratic race was essentially tied. We would expect a new Marquette survey next week, in advance of the April 5 Wisconsin primaries.
Emerson also took a look at a few match-ups for November, finding that either Democrat would beat Donald Trump by 9 points. Clinton and Cruz were separated by just one point.
March 23, 2016
Tuesday saw Ted Cruz easily win in Utah while Donald Trump did the same in winner take all Arizona. The main question of the night was whether Cruz could exceed 50% in Utah, the threshold for making it also winner take all. Cruz ended up near 70%. As a result, the night saw Trump win 59 delegates, Cruz 41. Both figures include a committed delegate from American Samoa. John Kasich was shut out for the night.
Trump increased his lead slightly and is now about 500 delegates away from the 1,237 needed. He needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to avoid a contested convention.
It was a good night for Bernie Sanders who cruised to victory in both Utah and Idaho caucuses. Hillary Clinton won Arizona. Sanders gained slightly in the delegate race, earning 57 delegates to Clinton's 51. Clinton needs about 600 delegates to reach 2,383 and win the nomination. That's about 1/3 of the remaining delegates.
This weekend sees three additional Democratic caucuses. The largest, by far, is the Washington state one with 118 delegates. Alaska and Hawaii will also hold their events. Based on other Western caucuses, Sanders should do well in Washington and Alaska; a little less clear how Hawaii will shake out. On the Republican side, the election calendar is quiet until the Wisconsin primary on April 5. North Dakota Republicans have a convention the first weekend in April to select delegates for the national convention in July. However, any candidate preferences noted by those delegates are not binding.
March 23, 2016
Ted Cruz easily won the Utah caucuses on Tuesday night; easily surpassing the 50% threshold to win all of that state's 40 delegates. He also won the support of a delegate in the American Samoa caucus. Unfortunately for the Texas Senator, Donald Trump increased his delegate lead slightly by taking Arizona and its 58 winner take all delegates.
Cruz now needs to win about 82% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination outright before the Cleveland convention.
Separately, Jeb Bush endorsed Cruz this morning. In his endorsement, Bush said "For the sake of our party and country, we must move to overcome the divisiveness and vulgarity Donald Trump has brought into the political arena, or we will certainly lose our chance to defeat the Democratic nominee and reverse President Obama’s failed policies.”
A summary of the overnight delegate counts thus far: