The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the state's new congressional map Friday, labeling it a Republican gerrymander in violation of the state constitution. The 4-3 decision returned the process to the state legislature with instructions to draw a new that is "not dictated by partisan considerations."
Republicans currently hold a 12-4 edge in the state's congressional delegation. The new map, with one district lost after the 2020 Census, positioned the party to win as many as 13 of 15 seats this year. The consensus house forecast, as of the time the map was voided, is below.
The first special elections of 2022 are taking place Tuesday. A longstanding vacancy in Congress will be filled. There are also several state legislative special general and primary elections.
Congressional Special General Election
Florida District 20
This seat - one of two House vacancies - has been open since long-time Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings died in April, 2021. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick won the special Democratic primary by just 5 votes over Dale Holness and she is a heavy favorite against Republican Jason Mariner.
Rep. Ed Perlmutter of Colorado announced Monday that he won't run for reelection this year. He is the 26th Democrat - out of 37 total House members - to announce they are retiring or seeking another office.
Wisconsin Senator Ron Johnson will seek a third term this year. He made the announcement via an opinion piece published Sunday at WSJ.com. The move comes a day after his fellow Republican, South Dakota Sen. John Thune said he too will run in November.
Today, I am announcing I will continue to fight for freedom in the public realm by running for re-election. It is not a decision I have made lightly. #WISen
Unlike South Dakota, where Thune should have little trouble winning a 4th term, the Wisconsin race is expected to be one of the most fiercely-contested in the country. About a dozen Democrats have already entered the race; the early frontrunner appears to be Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes.
Despite being loathed by Democrats, many in the party hoped Johnson would seek another term. As The Hill reported last week: "Democrats view him as vulnerable, pointing to provocative comments on the coronavirus, 2020 election, racial justice protests and more, and are eager to take another crack at him."
All 34 Senate incumbents holding seats up in 2022 have now made their reelection intentions known. Five Republicans and one Democrat are retiring: Roy Blunt (R-Missouri), Richard Burr (R-North Carolina), Patrick Leahy (D-Vermont), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Richard Shelby (R-Alabama), Pat Toomey (R-Pennsylvania). The remaining 15 Republicans and 13 Democrats are running. The Senate is currently evenly split at 50-50; Democrats control by virtue of Vice-President Kamala Harris' ability to break ties.
Michigan Rep. Brenda Lawrence (D, MI-14) announced late Tuesday that she will not run for a 5th term. She is the 25th House Democrat to retire or seek another office this year.
Rep. Bobby Rush, the dean of Illinois' U.S. House delegation, will not seek a 16th term in this year's midterm elections. He becomes the 24th Democrat to announce they are retiring or seeking another office this year. 11 Republicans have made that decision.
Rush has represented the state's 1st congressional district for the entirety of his 30 years in the House. In its current form, it extends southwest from the south side of Chicago. While the boundaries are changing in redistricting, it will remain a safely Democratic district. He won his final term by a 48% margin in 2020.
Rush has the distinction of being the only person to defeat former President Barack Obama in an election. Obama, then a state Senator, challenged him in the 2000 Democratic primary.
Devin Nunes officially resigned from Congress Monday. The move comes four weeks after he announced his intention to depart. Nunes is leaving to helm Trump Media & Technology Group, which is preparing to launch TRUTH Social, a new social media platform.
There are now two vacancies in the U.S. House, with Democrats holding a narrow 221-212 edge. The other open seat, in Florida's 20th congressional district, will be filled via a special election next Tuesday. That safely Democratic district was previously represented by Alcee Hastings, who died in April, 2021.
The image links to the House Interactive Map; choose 'Current House' view to see the current composition:
The map now includes shapes for 283 out of the 435 congressional districts. Click/tap the image below for an interactive version of the Cook Political forecast.
New Jersey's recently-approved congressional districts have been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map.
According to Politico, "Barring a massive wave election for either side, Democrats’ 10-2 majority in the New Jersey delegation is likely to shrink to 9-3 under the new map. That’s because the state’s 7th District, represented by Rep. Tom Malinowski, will shed Democratic areas to the benefit of three other previously-vulnerable Democratic incumbents." For a deeper dive into some of the more competitive districts, see this analysis from Split Ticket.
New Jersey is the 23rd multi-district state to complete redistricting. Six states have a single at-large district. Also included on the interactive map is redistricting approved by the legislatures of Arkansas and Georgia. While these await gubernatorial action (Georgia) or inaction (Arkansas), the new maps are all but certain to become law.
