Louisiana will have a gubernatorial runoff election on November 16, after Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards failed to win a majority of the vote in Saturday's all-party primary. Edwards will meet Republican businessman Eddie Rispone, who edged Rep. Ralph Abraham.
Although the 50 U.S. governorships are currently pretty evenly split (27 R, 23 D), Edwards is one of the only Democrats holding the office in the South. That position is a bit more precarious heading into the November runoff, as the two primary GOP challengers combined for about 51% of the vote. Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the race from Leans Democratic to Toss Up.
The content below relates to the October 12 primary. Use the link above the == for the November 16 runoff.
Democrat John Bel Edwards is attempting to win a 2nd term as Governor of Louisiana as voters cast their ballots on Saturday. Polls close at 8:00 PM Central Time (9:00 PM Eastern). Follow along below as the results come in.
Aside from the presidential election, Louisiana doesn't hold traditional primaries for Federal and state offices. All candidates will appear on a single ballot in Saturday's election. If one candidate receives a majority of the vote, they are the winner. If not, the top two finishers, even if from the same party, move on to the general election on November 16.
What to Expect
We're watching two things. Will Edwards get a majority of the vote? If not, which Republican will place 2nd and take him on in November?
Recent polling shows the incumbent governor well ahead, but just short of the 50% threshold. Two Republicans, Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone, are set to split most of the rest of the vote, and are in a statistical tie for 2nd.
Other Gubernatorial Elections
In addition to Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi will hold gubernatorial contests this year, both on November 5. Those other states both have Republican incumbents. The election in Kentucky is seen as a toss up; unpopular Gov. Matt Bevin is seeking a 2nd term. In Mississippi, Gov. Phil Bryant is termed out. Both parties have strong nominees, but the deep red lean of the state means the GOP is favored to hold the seat. Next year, 11 more states will hold gubernatorial elections. Create and share your forecast with the Governor Interactive Map.
The nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates has announced the schedule for the 2020 general election. There will be three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate. Each will begin at 9:00 PM ET and run for 90 minutes, with no commercial interruptions.
This is the same number of debates that were held in advance of the 2016 presidential election. However, each 2020 debate is more than a week closer to Election Day than the corresponding one in 2016. This is partially due to a later calendar date, as well as the fact that the 2020 election is five days earlier (November 3 vs. November 8) than in 2016. For example, the final debate in 2016, on October 19, was 20 days before the November 8 election. In 2020, the final debate will be October 22, just 12 days in advance of the November 3 election.
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii is considering a boycott of next Tuesday's Democratic debate. In a video posted to her Facebook page, she says that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the media are trying to rig the 2020 nominating process. She says it is a repeat of 2016, when these same parties favored Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders.
Long-time Democratic Rep. Nita Lowey (NY-17) announced Thursday that she will not seek reelection in 2020. Lowey, 82, is in her 16th term and is the first woman to chair the powerful House Appropriations Committee.
Her affluent 17th congressional district covers is just north of New York City, covering all of Rockland and parts of Westchester County. Hillary Clinton won here* by about 20 points over Donald Trump in 2016. While not as overwhelmingly blue as most NYC-area districts, the seat is considered safely Democratic in 2020.
Lowey is the 23rd current House member to announce they will retire or seek another office in 2020. Two of the six Democrats on the list (Lowey and Jose Serrano) are from New York. The retirement map^ has been updated.
* The Clinton's Chappaqua home is in the 17th district. There has been speculation in the past that Chelsea Clinton would run for the seat when Lowey retired. That talk will likely pick up again until she makes an announcement one way or the other.
^ This link will take you to the retirement map in the redesigned version of 270toWin. For those that haven't tried it yet, we'd welcome feedback. There are links at the top of most pages to take you back to the 'old' design if you so choose.
MSNBC and the Washington Post will co-host the fifth Democratic debate. It will take place on November 20, somewhere in Georgia.
This means candidates will have until the end of the day on November 13 to qualify. Eight candidates have so far met the tougher requirements for this debate, including Andrew Yang, who made the cut by virtue of a Quinnipiac poll released earlier Tuesday.
The Democratic National Committee announced that 12 candidates have qualified for the next debate, scheduled for October 15 in Ohio. All 12 will take part in a single night, making it the most crowded presidential debate stage in history. The debate will be moderated by CNN and The New York Times.
Since the September debate, Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer have met the minimum requirements of 2% in four qualifying polls and 130,000 unique donors.
The fifth Democratic debate will take place in November, date and location TBA. As previously noted, the DNC is raising the bar to winnow the field. The 2% polling threshold will go to 3%, while the unique donor requirement goes to 165,000. There is also a new, alternative polling qualifier: 5% or more in two polls from among the four early states. Five candidates have qualified to this point: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Kamala Harris.
Republican Rep. Chris Collins has resigned from Congress. He was indicted last summer on insider trading and is expected to plead guilty to those charges this week.
The Western New York 27th district is quite conservative. Despite the legal issues, Collins narrowly won a 4th term last November. Looking back to 2016, Collins won by 34%, while Donald Trump prevailed by 25% over Hillary Clinton. While the retirement of an incumbent often makes House races more competitive, this vacancy will have the opposite effect. Republicans will be heavily favored to win the special election (date TBA) and hold the seat in 2020.
Rating change: indicted Rep. Chris Collins (R)'s resignation moves #NY27 from Lean R to Solid R at @CookPolitical. Collins was the only reason this Trump +24 seat was ever in play.
Long-time GOP Rep. Mac Thornberry announced Monday he will not seek reelection in 2020. He represents the 13th congressional district of Texas; the most Republican district in the country per The Cook Political Report. Thornberry won a 13th term by nearly 65% in 2018 while Donald Trump won by 63% over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Thornberry is the 22nd current member of the House to announce they will retire or seek another office in 2020. The list includes 17 Republicans, of which 6 are from Texas.