Election News

Bloomberg Says Not Running for President

March 7, 2016

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has decided not to run as an independent in 2016, he announced this afternoon on Bloomberg View. As in the past when he's looked at running, he decided he couldn't win a 3-way race. Part of his statement follows:

While Bloomberg has decided to pass on 2016, this doesn't completely end the possibility of a credible independent or 3rd party challenge. The two most likely scenarios involve Donald Trump. If he looks to win the nomination, a well-known conservative may choose to join up with a 3rd party that has ballot access, such as the Constitution Party. Alternately, if Trump doesn't get the nomination, he may choose to go the independent route.

For those interested in such possibilities, try our 3rd party interactive electoral map.



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Trump, Clinton Lead Michigan As Not-So-Super Tuesday Up Next

March 7, 2016

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton hold fairly large leads in Michigan, the largest delegate prize on a relatively quiet Tuesday (although CNN would have you believe otherwise). Below the image, we summarize the day's events with updated polling info.

  

Michigan Primaries

On the Republican side, Trump is averaging about 38% in recent polls, with Ted Cruz and John Kasich fighting it out for 2nd at about 20% each.  Marco Rubio is well back at 13%. It is worth noting that the polling for this race has been a bit volatile. For example, in the five polls we are currently averaging, John Kasich has placed in every position, from first to last. There are 59 delegates allocated proportionately (unless someone gets >50%) based on the statewide vote, with a 15% minimum to accrue delegates.  

Hillary Clinton seems to have a comfortable lead, averaging about 20 points over Bernie Sanders. As with all Democratic primaries, most of the 147 delegates will be allocated proportionately, some statewide and some by individual Congressional District.

Other Republican contests:

Hawaii (Caucus, 19 delegates): Proportional caucus statewide/Congressional District. No polling available  

Idaho (Primary, 32): A poll out yesterday, but conducted in late February, gives Trump 30%, with Cruz and Rubio just below 20%. The 20% figure is important, as Idaho allocates its delegates proportionately with a 20% minimum threshold; >50% winner take all. (The poll not yet in our database as we're trying to get some additional information on it). 

Mississippi (Primary, 40): The only recent poll, from last week, givesTrump 41%, well ahead of Cruz & Rubio. This is a proportional primary, statewide/Congressional District with a 15% minimum threshold for the state vote. Congressional Districts become winner take all if a candidate exceeds 50%

Other Democratic contests: 

Mississippi (Primary, 41): Two recent polls indicate an easy win for Hillary Clinton here; this would be pretty consistent with recent primaries in other Southeastern states.


Cruz, Trump Split Four Super Saturday States While Sanders Wins Two of Three Over Clinton

March 6, 2016

Ted Cruz and Donald Trump split four states during yesterday's so-called 'Super Saturday' with Cruz winning more overall delegates largely on the strength of a very strong performance in the Kansas caucus.

Cruz has emerged as the main conservative challenger to the long-standing Republican frontrunner, although Trump still leads the polls in most upcoming states, including the all-or-none states of Florida and Ohio on March 15. Polls can shift based on the results in preceding states, so it will be interesting to see if upcoming surveys show a different picture.

It wasn't a great night for Marco Rubio or John Kasich, although Kasich may be heartened by a poll out Saturday that showed him with a small lead in Michigan, which holds its primary on Tuesday. 

For the Democrats, Bernie Sanders continues to perform well in caucus states, winning both Nebraska and Kansas. Clinton won Louisiana, the day's largest delegate prize.

 

Next up is today's Puerto Rico Republican primary and the Maine Democratic caucuses. No polling is available, although Sanders would seem to have the edge in Maine, a caucus state with a demographic profile similar to other places he's done well. Sanders and Clinton will debate tonight on CNN at 8PM ET.

Puerto Rico polls are open 7AM to 1PM ET, while the Maine caucuses will run from 1PM to 8PM ET; ending prior to the Democratic debate. 


Super Saturday Results

March 5, 2016

Four Republican and three Democratic contests are being held on this 'Super Saturday'. We'll update this page with results. Click a state name for full details

Republican

March 5

Kansas (Caucus, 40 delegates): Cruz Wins Ted Cruz was victorious here, getting roughly half the vote. Donald Trump looks to be 2nd, followed by Marco Rubio and John Kasich. The delegate allocation is proportional here (by state and District), with a 10% threshold. At this point, Kasich is just above 10%, so it looks like all 4 candidates will earn delegates here. By winning Kansas, Cruz continues to build northward in the south central US --- he previously won Texas and Oklahoma.

From the New York Times, this looks like the final delegate allocation:

Kentucky (Caucus, 46): Trump wins. Delegate allocation is proportional statewide

Louisiana (Primary, 46): Trump wins Voting closes at 9PM ET; Trump is well ahead in polling. Delegate allocation is proportional, with some statewide and some by Congressional District

Maine (Caucus, 23): Cruz wins Cruz received 12 delegates, Trump 9, Kasich 2

Democrat

March 5

Note that Democratic delegate allocation is proportional in each state; with a 15% minimum to get any delegates. 

Kansas (Caucus, 37 delegates): Sanders wins No delegate info available yet. Sanders also won nearby Oklahoma on Super Tuesday as well as two mainland caucus states (Colorado, Minnesota) that day

Nebraska (Caucus, 30 delegates): Sanders wins No delegate info available yet.

Louisiana (Primary, 59): Clinton wins No delegate info yet; one poll out recently kept Sanders below the 15% threshold to receive any delegates


Polling Update for March 5 Through March 8 Primary and Caucus Events

March 3, 2016

Update March 7: For the latest info on the March 8 events, we've created this separate article.

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Update March 4: There have been a few more polls since we wrote this yesterday (Thursday). Two changes worth noting:

In Michigan, new polls have pushed Trump's average up into the mid 30s, with Cruz also moving up slightly. A poll today gave Kasich 18%, his strongest showing to date. As Michigan is the largest delegate prize for both parties in the days ahead, expect to see several more polls before Tuesday. (Likely Trump)

Additionally, we have our first Kansas Republican poll with a decent sample size. It gives Trump a 6 point lead over Cruz, with Rubio well back in 3rd. (Leaning Trump).

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After Super Tuesday, Donald Trump has approximately 25% of the 1,237 delegates needed for the Republican nomination, while Hillary Clinton is approaching 45% of the 2,382 needed for the Democratic nomination; Clinton's count has benefited from the heavy support of Democratic superdelegates.

The next two debates will occur in Michigan. Republicans (except for Ben Carson) debate tonight in Detroit (Fox News, 9PM ET); Democrats do the same in Flint on Sunday (CNN, 8PM ET).

A summary of upcoming events and polling. Click/tap a state for more details. 

Republican

March 5

Kansas (Caucus, 40 delegates): No polling available*; Cruz won nearby Oklahoma primary on Super Tuesday

Kentucky (Caucus, 46): A late February poll had Trump leading Rubio, with Cruz third (Likely Trump)

Louisiana (Primary, 46): A new poll has Trump well ahead of Cruz, with Rubio third (Likely Trump)

Maine (Caucus, 23): No polling available; Trump easily won Massachusetts on Super Tuesday but had a narrow win in Vermont; Kasich finished 2nd in both states

March 6 

Puerto Rico (Primary, 23): No polling available

March 8

Hawaii (Caucus, 19): No polling available  Idaho (Primary, 32): No polling available

Michigan (Primary, 59): Recent polls have Trump averaging in the low 30's, about equal to combined support for Rubio & Cruz. Expect these two, along with Kasich, to battle for 2nd (Likely Trump)

Mississippi (Primary, 40): A poll out today gives Trump 41%, well ahead of Cruz & Rubio (Likely Trump)

Democrat

March 5

Kansas (Caucus, 37 delegates); Nebraska (Caucus, 30 delegates): No polling available*; Sanders won 'nearby' Oklahoma primary on Super Tuesday as well as the two mainland caucus states (Colorado, Minnesota) that day

Louisiana (Primary, 59): Clinton far ahead in two recent polls; one this week had Sanders at 14%, which is below the 15% threshold to receive any delegates (Solid Clinton)

March 6

Maine (Caucus, 30): No polling available; Sanders easily won his home state of Vermont on Super Tuesday, while Massachusetts was extremely competitive

March 8

Michigan (Primary, 147): Easily the biggest Democratic delegate prize during this period. Recent polls have shown an increasing lead for Clinton; now averaging 20 points over Sanders (Likely Clinton)

Mississippi (Primary, 41): A poll out today gives Clinton 65% to Sanders 11%. As in Louisiana, Sanders could be at risk of being shut out of delegates (Solid Clinton) 

* A very small sample Kansas poll was conducted by the Docking Institute at Fort Hays State University in late February. It showed Trump at about 25%, Rubio & Cruz in the mid-teens. Clinton had a lead over Sanders. Lots of undecided. Due to the small sample size, and in the absence of any other polling, caution should be exercised in relying too heavily on this data.


Carson will not attend Thursday's debate, will discuss future during CPAC speech Friday

March 2, 2016

Dr. Ben Carson "doesn't see a political path forward", CNN is reporting. Carson will not participate in Thursday's Republican debate in Detroit and will discuss his future during a CPAC speech on Friday. 

A statement to this effect appears on the Carson campaign website.

Carson won just 3 delegates on Super Tuesday and those were associated with a 5th place finish in Virginia. Once near the top of the polls, Carson saw most of his support evaporate (often to the benefit of Ted Cruz) late in 2015.


Clinton Increases Delegate Lead After Super Tuesday While Sanders Gains Several Wins

March 2, 2016

Hillary Clinton pushed past 1,000 delegates after a Super Tuesday performance that had her easily winning 6 of eleven Democratic contests. As expected, Massachusetts was tight; Clinton prevailed there for her 7th win. The other 4 states were taken by Bernie Sanders, as he won the caucus states of Colorado and Minnesota as well as Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont.  While the Vermont allocation is small, Clinton was likely held under 15%, meaning she will receive none of the state's delegates.

Here's how the delegate count looks as of this morning; some changes are likely. Much of Clinton's overall delegate lead owes to the commitment of superdelegates; party insiders whose vote is independent of the primary and caucus contests. 2,382 (or 2,383 - it is a bit unclear) delegates are needed to win the nomination.  

The info above is sourced from the New York Times. The next Democratic contests are this Saturday, with a primary in Louisiana and caucuses in Kansas and Nebraska. The Maine Democratic caucus is Sunday afternoon, with a debate that night in Flint, Michigan, moderated by CNN.


Super Tuesday Republican Recap

March 2, 2016

Donald Trump strengthened his status as Republican frontrunner on Super Tuesday, winning 7 of the night's eleven contests. Trump swept the Southeastern states of Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Tennesssee, as well as New England (Massachusetts and Vermont) and Virginia. Ted Cruz won his home state of Texas, neighboring Oklahoma and Alaska. Marco Rubio got his first victory of the campaign, winning the Minnesota caucus.

Here's how the delegate count looks as of this morning, with the caveat that many of the night's delegates have still not been allocated. For example, Texas has 155 delegates, only 77 of them have awarded to this point. The remainder of the delegates (in all states) are likely pending final results in individual Congressional Districts. 

The info above is sourced from the New York Times. Trump now has 285 of the 1,237 delegates needed to nominate. The next Republican contests are this Saturday, with a primary in Louisiana and caucuses in Kansas, Kentucky and Maine. Prior to that, the remaining candidates will convene in Detroit for a 9PM ET debate on Fox. The moderators are Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly and Chris Wallace. Trump is expected to attend; recall he skipped the last Fox-moderated debate due to his ongoing feud with Kelly. 


Super Tuesday Results

March 1, 2016

Summary of what we know so far. Click links for delegate info

9PM Closings

Clinton wins Texas

Cruz wins Texas

830PM Closings

Clinton wins Arkansas

Trump wins Arkansas

8PM Closings

Trump wins Massachusetts, Alabama, Tennessee

Clinton wins Alabama Tennessee 

Clinton/Sanders Massachusetts too close to call

Cruz wins Oklahoma,  Democrat too close to call

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Clinton wins Georgia 

Clinton wins Virginia 

Sanders wins Vermont 

Trump wins Georgia 

Trump wins Virginia 

Trump/Kasich - Vermont Too Close to Call

Clinton wins American Samoa  


Final Super Tuesday Republican Polling Averages

March 1, 2016

Donald Trump looks poised to win seven of the eight Super Tuesday states where recent polling is available, with Ted Cruz the favorite to win Texas, home to the largest delegate prize. Marco Rubio has the most consistent support across the states and that should be good enough for a 2nd or 3rd place everywhere.

 

The most recent Arkansas poll is from early February. It is unfortunate that there hasn't been any polling since, as this could end up being the day's most competitive primary. No recent polling is available in the caucus states.

Delegate allocation is somewhat proportional in all the Super Tuesday states, with many states offering delegates based both on the statewide result and the result within each Congressional District. As a result, while Trump is likely to win the most delegates today, Rubio and Cruz will get their share.



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