Election News

As of the morning of Thursday, November 10, control of each chamber of Congress remains undecided. 

U.S. Senate

At 49 Republicans and 48 Democrats, the battle has come down to Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. The party winning two out of three of those will control the Senate in 2023. The Georgia race is going to a December 6 runoff. Whether that will be the decisive election - as it was in 2020 - will hinge on whether the same party wins both Arizona and Nevada.

Pennsylvania is the only Senate seat that has flipped thus far. In Alaska, we know a Republican will win, but we won't know which one until November 23. 

As we write this, our results provider Decision Desk has called 391 House races. Republicans have won 204 seats, Democrats 187. 

There are four uncalled races in California where both candidates on the ballot are Democrats. That will bring the Democratic total to 191.  

To keep control, Democrats must win at least 27 of the 40 remaining races. Follow the live results below.

As of 6:00 AM Eastern Wednesday morning, Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada remain uncalled. All other races have been called for the incumbent party. This includes Wisconsin, where our results provider, Decision Desk, has called it for Republican Sen. Ron Johnson. That race has not yet been called by the Associated Press.

In Alaska, we know the winner will be one of two Republicans, Sen. Lisa Murkowski or Kelly Tshibaka. What isn't yet known is whether the leader will exceed 50%, or whether the election will be decided via the ranked choice tabulation later this month.

Republicans replacing their party's retirees include Katie Britt (AL), Eric Schmitt (MO), Ted Budd (NC), J.D. Vance (Ohio) and Markwayne Mullin (OK special). For the Democrats, it is John Fetterman (PA) and Peter Welch (VT). 

Here are the current consensus forecast maps for Senate, House and Governor. Click or tap any of these maps for an interactive version. On those pages, you can also view a timeline - see the controls above the map - of how the consensus has shifted over time. 

The information on this page is current as of 3:00 PM Eastern Time on October 24. Select a state in the table to see the latest average as well as individual poll detail.

Some forecasters moved the Iowa and Washington Senate races out of the 'safe' category after the release of fresh polling data. There have been no other changes to the consensus forecast; 22 of this year's 35 U.S. Senate seats up for election are seen as safe for the incumbent party. That includes 14 of 21 GOP-held seats, and nine of 8 held by Democrats. Assuming those play out as expected, Democrats^{1 1}Includes independents in Maine and Vermont that caucus with the party. will hold 44 seats, Republicans 43.

The other 13 seats feature varying levels of competitiveness, according to the consensus. The table below lists those states, ordered by the 270toWin polling average margin between the two major party candidates. 

The information on this page is current as of 3:00 PM Eastern Time on October 18. Select a state in the table to see the latest average as well as individual poll detail.

There have been no changes to the consensus forecast since we published this table last week: 24 of this year's 35 U.S. Senate seats up for election are seen as safe for the incumbent party. That includes 15 of 21 GOP-held seats, and nine of 14 held by Democrats. Assuming those play out as expected, Democrats^{1 1}Includes independents in Maine and Vermont that caucus with the party. will hold 45 seats, Republicans 44.

The other 11 seats feature varying levels of competitiveness, according to the consensus. The table below lists those states, ordered by the 270toWin polling average margin between the two major party candidates. 

Sen. Chuck Grassley is narrowly ahead of Democrat Mike Franken, according to the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll. The Republican, seeking his 8th term, led Franken by three points, 46% to 43%. The survey, of 620 likely Iowa voters, has a margin of error of 3.9%. It was conducted by Selzer & Company, rated A+ by FiveThirtyEight.

We don't often highlight individual polls, particularly those that seem to be outliers. Grassley led by double-digits in two other recent polls, and most forecasters don't have this race on the competitive radar. 

However, what caught our eye was that the same survey found Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds with a 17% lead over her Democratic challenger, Deidre DeJear. That result was pretty much right in line with other polls of the gubernatorial race. 

The information on this page is current as of noon Eastern Time on October 12. Select a state in the table to see the latest average as well as individual poll detail.

Based on the consensus forecast, 24 of this year's 35 U.S. Senate seats up for election are seen as safe for the incumbent party. That includes 15 of 21 GOP-held seats, and nine of 14 held by Democrats. Assuming those play out as expected, Democrats^{1 1}Includes independents in Maine and Vermont that caucus with the party. will hold 45 seats, Republicans 44.

The other 11 seats feature varying levels of competitiveness, according to the consensus. The table below lists those states, ordered by the 270toWin polling average margin between the two major party candidates. 

Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse is expected to resign in the near future, likely to become the new president at the University of Florida. He is the only finalist in that search. Per Politico, Sasse, in his second term, has "made a name for himself as a consistent Trump critic in Congress as well as a reliable conservative vote."

With the planned departure coming so close to the 2022 election, Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) will be able to appoint an interim replacement, who will serve until a special election is held in November, 2024. The winner of that election will complete the final two years of the term. Nebraska's other Senate seat, held by Republican Deb Fischer will also be on the 2024 ballot for a regular six-year term.

Friday will be the final day in the U.S. House for Rep. Ted Deutch (FL-22).  The Florida Democrat had announced earlier this year that he would not seek reelection, and would depart before the end of the term. He is moving to a new role as CEO of the American Jewish Committee. 

Barring any unexpected changes, Democrats will hold a 220-212 edge over Republicans through the November 8 general election. On that date, there will be a special election to fill the vacancy in Indiana's 2nd District. The seat became open when Jackie Walorski (R) died in an automobile accident in early August. Republicans are expected to hold the seat, making the partisan composition 220-213 for the lame duck period.

The other two open seats, both in Florida, will not be filled until the start of the new Congress in January. In addition to Deutch's district, Charlie Crist resigned from the 13th District at the end of August to focus on his general election campaign against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.