Introducing the 2022 House Simulator

Today marks 50 days until the November 8 midterm elections. To mark the occasion - although the timing is really just a coincidence - we've launched the 2022 House Simulator.

Run as many simulated elections as you'd like for the 435 U.S. House seats up this year. The results of a simulation can be displayed randomly, or in order of poll closing times. A table below the map will track your simulations until the browser tab is closed.

Democrats narrowly control the chamber, with a 221-212 edge over Republicans. Assigning the two vacancies (FL-13 and IN-02) to the prior incumbent party gives us a 222-213 count at full strength. Republicans will need to gain five seats in November to take back the Speaker's gavel.

There are still a wide range of possible outcomes for the election. Any individual simulation is plausible, although no one result is particularly likely. To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each afternoon, including the results on our House Battle for Control page. That page also includes a list of the 50 most competitive districts, based on the most recent day's simulations.

Currently, the model gives Republicans a 75% chance of gaining control of the House. The average result is 226-209, a 14 seat GOP gain.

A Senate Simulator is also available for that evenly-split chamber. There are 35 elections this year.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Sen. Mike Braun to Run for Indiana Governor in 2024

The freshman Republican will attempt to succeed termed-out Gov. Eric Holcomb

Virginia Democratic Rep. Donald McEachin Dies at 61

He had been elected to a fourth term in Congress earlier this month

Alaska Ranked Choice Runoff Results

The tabulation will determine winners in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House races

House Update: Four Seats Uncalled; GOP Majority Will Have 220-222 Seats

The outcome of two of the races is all but certain, the other two - in California - could go either way

Republicans Clinch House Majority; Divided Government Returns to DC in January

It will be a narrow majority; eight seats remain to be called