Introducing the 2022 House Simulator
By 270toWin Staff
September 19, 2022, 9:53 AM ET
Today marks 50 days until the November 8 midterm elections. To mark the occasion - although the timing is really just a coincidence - we've launched the 2022 House Simulator.
Run as many simulated elections as you'd like for the 435 U.S. House seats up this year. The results of a simulation can be displayed randomly, or in order of poll closing times. A table below the map will track your simulations until the browser tab is closed.
Democrats narrowly control the chamber, with a 221-212 edge over Republicans. Assigning the two vacancies (FL-13 and IN-02) to the prior incumbent party gives us a 222-213 count at full strength. Republicans will need to gain five seats in November to take back the Speaker's gavel.
There are still a wide range of possible outcomes for the election. Any individual simulation is plausible, although no one result is particularly likely. To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each afternoon, including the results on our House Battle for Control page. That page also includes a list of the 50 most competitive districts, based on the most recent day's simulations.
Currently, the model gives Republicans a 75% chance of gaining control of the House. The average result is 226-209, a 14 seat GOP gain.
A Senate Simulator is also available for that evenly-split chamber. There are 35 elections this year.