2022 Senate Battle for Control

Senate simulator results

Each day, we run 25,000 simulations with the model. On this page, we display the most recent day’s results, along with some trends over time. This lets us see the full range of plausible 2022 Senate election outcomes.

Election Winner

Percentage of time each party wins control

Oct 6
Democrats 69.2%
Republicans 30.8%

Average Total Seats

The average outcome

Oct 6
Democrats 50.8
Republicans 49.2

Results Distribution

All outcomes and frequency of occurrence

Oct 6
Democrats
Republicans

Each bar displays the number of seats for the selected party, colored by the party in control at that number.

Results by State - October 6

Click or tap a state to see its trends over time

State Democrats Republicans Bellwether1 Tipping Point2
Overall Winning % 69.2% 30.8%
Arizona 79.7% 20.3% 78.3% 12.3%
California 99.9% 0.1% 69.3% -
Colorado 91.4% 8.6% 75.8% 7.6%
Connecticut 99.7% 0.3% 69.5% 0.1%
Florida 18.5% 81.5% 48.7% 4.1%
Georgia 59.9% 40.1% 72.9% 12.6%
Illinois 99.2% 0.8% 69.9% 0.4%
Indiana 1.1% 98.9% 31.9% 0.1%
Iowa 1.5% 98.5% 32.3% 0.1%
Kansas 0.2% 99.8% 31.0% -
Kentucky 0.1% 99.9% 30.9% -
Missouri 1.3% 98.7% 32.2% 0.1%
Nevada 59.1% 40.9% 73.0% 11.7%
New Hampshire 85.4% 14.6% 77.8% 10.0%
North Carolina 34.9% 65.1% 60.6% 9.4%
Ohio 28.0% 72.0% 56.4% 7.6%
Oregon 99.3% 0.7% 69.8% 0.3%
Pennsylvania 77.7% 22.3% 78.6% 12.3%
South Carolina 0.5% 99.5% 31.3% -
Utah 7.7% 92.3% 38.5% 0.8%
Washington 98.3% 1.7% 70.8% 1.3%
Wisconsin 34.2% 65.8% 60.5% 9.2%

1 Percentage of simulations where party wins the state and control of the Senate.
2 The state that gives one party control of the Senate, when ordering from smallest to largest margin of victory.

Democrats >99.9%

Republicans >99.9%

1 Bellwether percentage for >99.9% states is the same as the overall winning percentage of the associated party.