2022 Senate Battle for Control

Senate simulator results

Each day, we run 25,000 simulations with the model. On this page, we display the most recent day’s results, along with some trends over time. This lets us see the full range of plausible 2022 Senate election outcomes.

Election Winner

Percentage of time each party wins control

	Nov 7
	Republicans	54.0%
	Democrats	46.0%

Average Total Seats

The average outcome

	Nov 7
	Republicans	50.6
	Democrats	49.4

Results Distribution

All outcomes and frequency of occurrence

	Nov 7
	Republicans
	Democrats

Each bar displays the number of seats for the selected party, colored by the party in control at that number.

Results by State - November 7

Click or tap a state to see its trends over time

State	Democrats	Republicans	Bellwether¹	Tipping Point²
Overall Winning %	46.0%	54.0%
Arizona	66.9%	33.1%	69.4%	14.2%
Colorado	94.7%	5.3%	51.3%	2.4%
Connecticut	99.9%	0.1%	46.2%	-
Florida	5.2%	94.8%	59.0%	1.3%
Georgia	46.4%	53.6%	72.7%	15.1%
Illinois	99.0%	1.0%	47.0%	0.2%
Indiana	0.2%	99.8%	54.2%	-
Iowa	1.0%	99.0%	54.9%	0.2%
Missouri	0.7%	99.3%	54.7%	0.1%
Nevada	40.6%	59.4%	73.0%	13.6%
New Hampshire	75.5%	24.5%	65.7%	12.3%
New York	99.9%	0.1%	46.1%	-
North Carolina	18.6%	81.4%	68.7%	8.0%
Ohio	13.1%	86.9%	65.5%	5.5%
Oregon	99.5%	0.5%	46.6%	0.1%
Pennsylvania	53.1%	46.9%	71.7%	14.6%
South Carolina	0.1%	99.9%	54.1%	-
Utah	2.6%	97.4%	56.6%	0.5%
Washington	95.2%	4.8%	50.8%	2.3%
Wisconsin	23.1%	76.9%	70.8%	9.5%

¹ Percentage of simulations where party wins the state and control of the Senate.
² The state that gives one party control of the Senate, when ordering from smallest to largest margin of victory.