2022 Senate Simulation

Who will control the Senate?

Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated 2022 Senate election. You can choose to have the map populate randomly or based on actual poll closing times.

There are a wide range of possible outcomes for the 2022 Senate election. As a result, any simulation is plausible based on current forecasts, but no individual result is particularly likely to happen. To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each afternoon and compile the results.

The current Senate is split evenly. Democrats control the chamber as the vice-president can break tie votes. As a result, Democrats will be shown as ‘winning’ any simulations that end 50-50.

Speed
no 2022 election
no 2022 election
CT
MD
S

Session Statistics

These will reset when you reload the page

Total Simulations: 0

Democrats Republicans Bellwether1 Tipping Point2
Overall Winning % - -
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
Oregon
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

1 Percentage of simulations where party wins the state and control of the Senate.
2 The state that gives one party control of the Senate, when ordering from smallest to largest margin of victory.

Democrats >99.9%

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
Oregon
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah (I)
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

Republicans >99.9%

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maryland
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oklahoma (S)
Oregon
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

1 Bellwether percentage for >99.9% states is the same as the overall winning percentage of the associated party.