New Feature: 2022 Senate Simulator
By 270toWin Staff
September 5, 2022, 10:39 AM ET
Try out the new 2022 Senate Simulator. Run as many simulated elections as you'd like for the 35 Senate seats up this year. The results of a simulation can be displayed randomly, or in order of poll closing times. A table below the map will track your simulations until the browser tab is closed.
The Senate is evenly split at 50-50. Democrats control the chamber since Vice-President Kamala Harris can break tie votes. Republicans need to gain one seat to take back the majority.
There are still a wide range of possible outcomes for the election. Any individual simulation is plausible, although no one result is particularly likely. To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each afternoon, including the results on our Senate Battle for Control page. That page also includes daily results by state and links to each state's trend over time.
Currently, the model gives Democrats a 62% chance of winning the Senate.
A House Simulator will be available soon - hopefully in the next week or so. The 2022 midterm elections are nine weeks from tomorrow.
Analyst David Wasserman sees another competitive battle for control
Six vacancies in Georgia, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania will be contested
Only Democrats entered the race to succeed the late Barbara Cooper (D), so the primary winner will almost certainly be the next state rep here
34 seats, 23 held by Democrats or independents associated with the party will be contested next year
Three vacancies in the Virginia General Assembly, along with one in the Mississippi State House, will be filled Tuesday