New Feature: 2022 Senate Simulator

Try out the new 2022 Senate Simulator. Run as many simulated elections as you'd like for the 35 Senate seats up this year. The results of a simulation can be displayed randomly, or in order of poll closing times. A table below the map will track your simulations until the browser tab is closed.

The Senate is evenly split at 50-50. Democrats control the chamber since Vice-President Kamala Harris can break tie votes. Republicans need to gain one seat to take back the majority.

There are still a wide range of possible outcomes for the election. Any individual simulation is plausible, although no one result is particularly likely. To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each afternoon, including the results on our Senate Battle for Control page. That page also includes daily results by state and links to each state's trend over time.

Currently, the model gives Democrats a 62% chance of winning the Senate.

A House Simulator will be available soon - hopefully in the next week or so. The 2022 midterm elections are nine weeks from tomorrow.

 

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Headlines

Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse Expected to Resign; Sole Finalist to be President at University of Florida

Gov. Pete Ricketts would appoint a replacement who will serve until a 2024 special election

Florida Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch Resigning at Close of Business Friday

Early departure had previously been announced; Deutch is taking a job as CEO of the American Jewish Committee

Polling Update: September 27

A list of polls added yesterday or today

Introducing the 2022 House Simulator

Who will control the House after the midterm elections? Use this tool to simulate the outcome and see trends over time.

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