Election News

Rep. Denny Heck of Will Not Seek Re-election in 2020

Democratic Rep. Denny Heck of Washington announced he will not seek a 5th term in 2020. He serves on the House Intelligence Committee, which most recently conducted a high-profile impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The findings were sent on to the the House Judiciary Committee, which began formal hearings Wednesday morning.

Heck is the only person to have ever represented Washington's 10th district, created after the 2010 Census gave the state an additional representative in Congress. The district sits in western Washington, encompassing the capital, Olympia and the southern portion of the Seattle Metropolitan Area.

Heck won his 4th term in 2018 by about 23 points, while Hillary Clinton won the district by about 11.5% over Donald Trump in 2016. Democrats are likely to hold the district in 2020 despite the loss of incumbency.

Sen. Kamala Harris Exits Presidential Race

California Sen. Kamala Harris ended her bid for the presidency Tuesday, telling supporters that the campaign "simply doesn't have the financial resources we need to continue."  After a breakout performance in the first Democratic debate, her polling numbers had been moving in the wrong direction. There has also been turmoil in the campaign organization. A top aide recently resigned, saying she had never seen an organization "treat its staff so poorly."

Harris' recent national polling average was 3.8%, a sharp drop from the mid-teens support she was receiving in July after the first debate. This placed her fifth in the field, in a group with businessman Andrew Yang and former NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg, who just joined the race last month.  Her polling was also in the 3-4% range in the four early states, limiting her opportunity for an early breakthrough* in those critical contests. 

Despite those troubles, she was one of just seven qualifiers thus far for the final Democratic debate of the year. That debate is December 19th in Los Angeles. The six others include Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer and Elizabeth Warren. It is possible that Tulsi Gabbard and/or Andrew Yang may still make the stage; they have until December 12 to qualify.

*Contrast this, for example, to Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is fourth nationally at 11%, but is leading the field with 22% in Iowa 

The Road to 270: West Virginia

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. Contact Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz.

West Virginia

West Virginia’s Political U-Turn

West Virginia has undergone an astounding political reversal in the last two decades. The state began reliably voting Democratic in 1932, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt picked it up as a part of his New Deal Coalition. Between 1932 and 2000, the state only voted Republican in the landslide elections of 1956, 1972, and 1984. George W. Bush’s victory in West Virginia in 2000 marked a turning point for the state. In each election since 2000, the Republican nominee has expanded on his predecessor’s margin of victory. This progression culminated in 2016 with Donald Trump’s 68% to 26% blowout over Hillary Clinton.

Steve Bullock Ends Presidential Campaign

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock said Monday that he is ending his bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination. Bullock made the announcement on Facebook, linking to a longer statement on Medium. He said that "it has become clear that in this moment, I won’t be able to break through to the top tier of this still-crowded field of candidates."

Bullock is in his 2nd term as governor of Montana, a deep red state that voted for Donald Trump by a 58-33 margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016. It has voted only twice for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1950. Bullock frequently used the talking point that he was the only Democrat in the field that won a Trump state. However, it wasn't enough to help him break out in this historically large field.  His national polling average was well under 1% at the time of withdrawal.

Joe Sestak Drops Presidential Bid; Democratic Field Now at 17

Former Rep. Joe Sestak has ended his bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination. Sestak entered the race in June. He barely registered in polling and did not qualify for any of the party's debates.

 

There are still 17 candidates vying for the nomination, 64 days before the February 3 Iowa caucuses. The party's final debate of the year will take place on December 19 in Los Angeles. 

The Road to 270: Wyoming

The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. You can reach Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz. 

Wyoming

The Strength and Weakness of Wyoming Voters

In presidential elections, Wyoming voters are electorally powerful but more-or-less ignored by the nominees. The state is the most over-represented in the Electoral College but has voted the same way for over half a century. 

Michael Bloomberg Officially Enters 2020 Race for President

Former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg announced Sunday that he is running for president in 2020. 

Politico Releases Initial 2020 Election Forecast

Earlier this week, Politico unveiled its 2020 Election Forecast, providing initial ratings for each state in the presidential election, as well as for next year's congressional elections and gubernatorial contests.  The forecast detail includes a short note on each key/competitive race, as well as recent results in that state or district. 

We've created interactive versions of the ratings; click or tap a map below to access.

President

The Road to 270: Washington, D.C.

Editor's Note:   50 Mondays after today is November 2, 2020, the day before the presidential election. That gives us 50 weeks to review the 50 states.


The Road to 270 is a weekly column leading up to the presidential election. Each installment is dedicated to understanding one state’s political landscape and how that might influence which party will win its electoral votes in 2020. We’ll do these roughly in order of expected competitiveness, moving toward the most intensely contested battlegrounds as election day nears. Leading off is Washington, D.C., the only non-state entity that casts electoral college votes in the United States presidential election. 

The Road to 270 will be published every Monday. The column is written by Seth Moskowitz, a 270toWin elections and politics contributor. You can reach Seth at s.k.moskowitz@gmail.com or on Twitter @skmoskowitz. 


Washington, D.C

The quadrennial contest for Washington, D.C.’s three Electoral College votes is consistently the least competitive in the nation. The District's residents began casting votes for president in 1964 and no Republican nominee has ever won an electoral vote. In 2016, Hillary Clinton received nearly 23 votes for each one cast for Donald Trump, winning by a 91% to 4% margin.

Before getting to the District’s outlook for 2020, let’s look at its history as our nation’s capital and why it has electoral votes at all.

Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards Wins Re-election in Louisiana

Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards has won a 2nd term in Louisiana. 

As polls predicted, the election was very competitive, but Edwards is now projected to finish ahead of GOP businessman Eddie Rispone.