Election News

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This week, voters in Arizona will head to the polls on Tuesday, while Utahns will caucus that same day. In addition, the Democrats will hold caucuses in Idaho and there will be a Republican convention in American Samoa. On Saturday the 26th, Democrats will caucus in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington. Given the time differences, it will likely be late into the evening, at the earliest, before those on the east coast see any results.

Where We Stand

Trump has 678 delegates. He needs about 53% of the remaining delegates to win the Republican nomination before the convention in July. Cruz is next at 423. These numbers include a reallocation of Rubio's 5 Alaska delegates, 3 of whom went to Trump, 2 to Cruz.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton won all five of last Tuesday's contests and has opened up a significant lead over Bernie Sanders, particularly when committed superdelegates are included. That said, the calendar is quite a bit friendlier to the Vermont Senator over the next several weeks, with numerous Western caucus events and the Wisconsin primary on April 5.  

Republican

Arizona Primary The state awards 58 winner take all delegates. Polling has been pretty limited. What there has been gives Trump a low double-digit lead over Cruz. However, Republicans on the ground indicate the race is going to be very close. (Projection: Leaning Trump. The race is probably tightening but this shift needs to be enough to overcome significant early voting in the state). 

Utah Caucus A new poll (the only one we have to go on) gives Cruz 53%, Kasich 29% and Trump 11%. The state has 40 delegates that will be awarded based on various thresholds. If this poll is exactly right, Cruz will win all 40 based on exceeding 50%. If no candidate gets to 50%, the key threshold is number of candidates that reach 15%. If all three reach 15%, they'll proportionately split all the delegates. If only two reach that mark, all candidates, regardless of vote, will split. Since only three candidates remain and since Utah reallocates delegates earned by those that have dropped out, it appears the proportional allocation will essentially be the same regardless of whether only two or all three reach 15%. Update: Projection is likely Cruz; unclear whether he crosses 50%.

Nine delegates are also available in American Samoa. 

Democrat

All Democratic contests allocate delegates (except superdelegates) on a roughly proportional basis, some based on the statewide result, some based on results in individual Congressional Districts (for states with more than one District).

Arizona Primary Hillary Clinton appears to have a significant lead; crossing 50% in the two most recent polls. The state has 85 delegates. (Projection: Likely Clinton). 

Utah Caucus The only poll here, from mid-January, gave Clinton a 10 point lead. Probably wouldn't put much faith in that given that Sanders has outperfomed expectations since voting began in early February, and he's done particularly well in caucus states. 37 delegates. (Projection: Toss-up). Update: Based on new poll that has Sanders up by 8, and performance in other caucus states, will move to Lean Sanders.

Idaho Caucus No polling here; probably reasonable to see an outcome similar to that of Utah. 27 delegates. (Projection: Toss-up). Update: Still no polling, but given Utah move think this is also a Lean Sanders.

The caucus results on Tuesday will likely be somewhat instructive for Saturday's caucuses in Washington and Alaska. It's less clear what they mean for Hawaii. Washington, with 118, is the most delegate-rich state for the Democrats this upcoming week. 

Delegate counts are from the New York Times and are subject to change, particularly for recent events. For example, only a portion of Missouri delegates have been awarded thus far. The maps will update as we get more information.

The active candidate's map is highlighted in green; click/tap to change to another candidate. This area also shows a summary of total delegates won by each candidate, and the percentage of remaining delegates needed to clinch the party's nomination. A value >100% means a candidate cannot* clinch the nomination prior to the party convention.

The Republican map, with Trump active, is shown below.

* Barring some unforseen circumstance. On the Democratic side, this assumes superdelegates remain with the candidate they have committed to support.

The graphic displays the four methods for what happens to these 184 delegates through the first round at the convention. Those are listed below, along with a couple notes.

• Delegates are bound to the candidate (39 of the 184): Iowa is one of the states with this method; all but five of the non-Rubio delegates are in this category.
• Candidate can keep or release delegates (42): Rubio controls 40 of these; Carson two. Carson has endorsed Donald Trump.
• Delegates become free agents (98): If you're one of these people, you'll likely be hearing from the campaigns.
• Delegates get re-allocated proportionately (5): Alaska only; depending on exact rounding rules, either Trump or Cruz will get three of these, with the other getting two. Kasich finished below the 13% threshold to qualify. Update: Trump was allocated 3, Cruz 2. Update 2: Rubio's request for the return of these five delegates was granted.

For more coverage of the campaign from The Wall Street Journal, visit their online politics section.

*Carson 8; Bush 4; Fiorina, Huckabee, Paul 1 each

Thanks to superdelegates, Hillary Clinton only needs about 34% of the remaining 2,322 delegates (which includes 219 uncommitted superdelegates). The math does not favor Bernie Senators. He will need some of those previously committed superdelegates to change their mind for him to have much of a shot at the nomination. These superdelegates will feel little pressure to do so until and unless the Vermont Senator goes on an extended winning streak. 

On the Republican side, in the absence of it changing to a two-man race, it would appear that Donald Trump is the only candidate that can realistically reach 1,237 delegates before the Cleveland convention. Trump needs about 53% of the remaining 1,079 delegates.

The election calendar gets quieter for the next couple weeks. The main event next Tuesday will be the Arizona primary. Trump and Clinton lead in relatively limited polling.

• Trump expanded his delegate lead by easily winning Florida and its 99 winner take all delegates
• After a distant 2nd in Florida, Rubio suspended his campaign
• Kasich salvaged his campaign by winning Ohio and its 66 winner take all delegates
• North Carolina (Republican) was closer than expected, Trump and Cruz will split most of the delegates in this proportional state
• Clinton won at least four of five states; including a larger-than-expected win in Ohio
• No AP calls in Missouri as of this writing; Trump and Clinton lead by just 0.2%.
• Trump, with at least 621 delegates, is now >50% to the 1,237 needed to secure the Republican nomination
• Clinton, with at least 1,561 delegates is now about 2/3 of the way to the 2,383 needed for the Democratic nomination

The current values include Donald Trump's 9 delegates from today's caucus in the Northern Mariana Islands. Not all sources agree on delegate counts, so if yours are different, just change the 'Current' field.

Get the spreadsheet here. 

Trump has 460 delegates, 37% of the 1,237 needed to secure the Republican nomination. This weekend saw Rubio, Cruz and Kasich earn about 10 delegates each, while Trump netted only one. Trump leads by 90 over Cruz heading into Tuesday, where approximately 360 delegates are up for grabs in the five states (plus nine in Northern Mariana Islands Convention)

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has won about 58% of the delegates in contests thus far, but holds a commanding lead when committed superdelegates are included. Assuming she holds those superdelegates (they can change their mind), she now has more than 50% of the 2,383 needed for the nomination. Around 790 delegates (including superdelegates) are associated with Tuesday's events.

A recap of where things currently stand for each contest follows, including a discussion of the delegate allocation procedure as we understand it. The poll closing times are believed accurate, but you should not rely on them to vote. Click/tap a state for more details.  

Republican

Florida The big prize on March 15 with 99 winner take all delegates. There has been a lot of polling over the past week, and Trump leads it all, but there's an interesting stratification here. Some of the polls show a competitive battle, with Rubio about 7 points back. The others show an easy Trump win of 20 points, with Rubio and Cruz fighting it out for 2nd. There's not a lot in-between. (The most recent polls have gone in the Trump 20+ direction). Florida is a must-win state for Rubio. Polls in most of the state close at 7PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump as the non-Trump vote will be divided between Cruz and Rubio. Trump is well-positioned to win and gain 99 delegates.)

North Carolina The state proportionately allocates its 72 delegates based on the statewide result. Trump has led every poll this year, currently averaging about 12 points over Cruz. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. Although well back, Kasich seems to have caught Rubio for 3rd. (Projection: Likely Trump. If the polls are pretty accurate, delagate allocation would be roughly Trump 30, Cruz 20, Kasich and Rubio both 11.)

Illinois The state has 69 delegates. 15 of these will go to the statewide popular vote winner. The remaining 54 delegates are directly elected, 3 per Congressional District. There has been a surge of polling in recent days, most showing Trump with about a 10 point lead over Cruz. However, a poll out Sunday from CBS & YouGov gives Trump only a 4 point edge. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Likely Trump for the 15 statewide delegates. No idea what to expect for the remainder).

Ohio This race, with 66 winner take all delegates, could go either way. As of Monday morning, Kasich had a one point lead, on average, over Trump. For the overall race for the nomination, this may be the most important battle of the night, particularly if Trump wins Florida. Polls close at 7:30PM ET. (Projection: Toss-up; either Trump or Kasich will win and gain 66 delegates).

Missouri While outside the top 10 in total delegates, the state still has a significant number at 52. If a candidate exceeds 50%, he receives all 52 of the delegates. Otherwise, the candidate with the most statewide votes gets 12 delegates, with the remaining 40 allocated, in groups of five, to the winner of each of the state's eight Congressional Districts. There has been little polling here; a small sample survey the other day gave Trump a 7 point lead over Cruz with Rubio and Kasich well back. Polls close at 8:00PM ET. (Projection: Nobody gets 50% statewide; Trump or Cruz will win the 12 statewide delegates.)

Democrat

All Democratic contests allocate delegates (except superdelegates) on a roughly proportional basis, some based on the statewide result, some based on results in individual Congressional Districts. For poll closing times, see the section above.

Florida, where Clinton is averaging a 60-33 lead over Sanders and North Carolina, where the Clinton average lead is 55-34, are expected to be easy Clinton wins. Florida has 246 delegates, North Carolina 121.

The other three states have open primaries and could be much more competitive. A Public Policy Polling series out Sunday showed that independents and Republicans that are planning to vote in the Democratic primary overwhelmingly favor Sanders. Therefore, the proportion of these voters that show up vs. registered Democrats, could prove decisive in each state. 

Illinois Overall, Clinton has a 17 point lead, on average. However, the most recent polls all show a Clinton lead of 6 points or less. Perhaps the race has narrowed, or perhaps the pollster assumptions on voter mix is evolving. It's possible that the recent Sanders upset in nearby Michigan, where Clinton's poll lead was 20+, is weighing on the pros here, and in the other two Midwestern states. We'll find out tomorrow. The state has 182 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.

Ohio Recent polls have given Clinton a lead of anywhere from five to 20 points; likely seeing the same issues as in Illinois. Ohio has 160 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.

Missouri Very limited polling here; this weekend's Public Policy survey showed a dead heat. 84 delegates. Projection: Toss-up.

If these metrics are accurate, than the mix of voters (D vs. I vs. R) that actually cast their ballots will be crucial to determining whether Senator Senators can pull the upset in any or all of these states. Other recent polls in Ohio and Illinois have not seen the same thing. Looking at the 270toWin Polling Averages, Clinton leads by about 17 in Illinois, and 15 in Ohio. The PPP poll in Missouri is the first one with a significant sample size, so not much to go on there.

Democrat: The poll also found a competitive race between Clinton and Sanders; Clinton with a 47-40 lead. The sample size is even smaller here, however, and sports an 8% margin of error.