Election News

The Los Angeles Times reports that California Rep. Paul Cook will not seek reelection in 2020. The four-term Republican will instead run for a seat on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors. He becomes the 20th retirement this cycle; the House Retirement Map has been updated. 

Cook represents California's 8th congressional district. It is geographically the largest one in the state and includes sparsely populated desert areas in the eastern part of the state to the Nevada border.  It was one of the few districts in the country without a Democrat on the ballot in 2018, as the state's top-two primary advanced two Republicans to the November election.  Donald Trump won here by about 15% over Hillary Clinton in 2016. At this point, the district will keep a safe Republican rating for 2020.

Morning Consult released the first national poll taken entirely after last week's 3rd Democratic debate. There was little movement in the race, when compared to the firm's prior weekly tracking poll. Sen. Elizabeth Warren gained two points to 18%, but she continues to trail former Vice-President Joe Biden (32%) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (20%).  Those two each lost 1%, as did Sen. Kamala Harris. 

The graphic below shows the comparison for each candidate getting 2% in this new poll. You can also see how it relates to our calculated national average for each candidate. There are some notable differences; click/tap the graphic for full results on this and other polling for the Democratic nomination.

The New York Times and CNN will co-host the 4th Democratic debate, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) announced Friday. It will take place October 15 - possibly continuing on the 16th - at Otterbein University in Westerville, Ohio. CNN anchors Anderson Cooper and Erin Burnett will moderate; they will be joined by the national editor of the Times, Marc Lacey.

Eleven candidates have so far met the required criteria of 2% support in four polls and 130,000 unique donors. This includes the ten candidates on the stage for this week's debate as well as investor Tom Steyer, who recently qualified.  Other candidates have until October 1 to qualify. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and author Marianne Williamson are closest. Both have met the donor threshold but are short on qualifying polls: Gabbard needs two more, Williamson three.

There are currently two vacancies in the U.S. House. Both are in North Carolina and both are to be filled via special elections Tuesday.  Polls close at 7:30 PM Eastern Time. Live results will appear below after that time.

Republican Rep. Roger Marshall of Kansas has launched a bid for U.S. Senate. The incumbent, GOP Rep. Pat Roberts is retiring. Marshall, in his third term, joins a field that includes the former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach. It may also eventually include Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has deflected questions about whether he will run.

The decision adds Marshall to the list of 2020 House Retirements, which now number 19.  The Kansas 1st District is larger, by area, than the state's other three districts combined.  It is also the most conservative. Despite the lack of an incumbent running in 2020, it is expected to remain in GOP hands.

Tom Steyer has become the 11th candidate to qualify for the October Democratic debate.  He has now received the required 2% support in four qualifying polls, after a Nevada poll released this past weekend. 

Steyer will join the 10 Democrats that qualified for both of the fall debates, including one this Thursday in Houston.  With the total qualifiers now exceeding 10, the October debate will likely return to a two-night format, although this has not yet been announced by the DNC.  It is scheduled on October 15 and/or 16 from an Ohio location yet to be announced.

Other candidates have until October 1 to make the debate stage. In addition to four qualifying polls, participants must have at least 130,000 unique donors. Both Tulsi Gabbard and Marianne Williamson have met the fundraising requirement, but both are short of the required polls.  Gabbard has two, Williamson one.  

Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, Republican of Wisconsin announced he will not seek reelection in 2020.  Now in his 21st term, he has the 2nd longest tenure among current House members, after Don Young of Alaska.  His retirement is the 2nd of the day, after Texas Rep. Bill Flores.  The decision comes about a week after his fellow Wisconsin Rep. Sean Duffy announced he would resign from Congress in late September.

Wisconsin's 5th district covers much of the northern and western suburbs of Milwaukee. It is a conservative district; Donald Trump won here by 20% over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Rep. Bill Flores of Texas announced Wednesday that he would not seek reelection in 2020. He becomes the 5th member of the Texas GOP delegation to retire this cycle. Overall, 13 Republicans and 3 Democrats have made similar decisions.

Flores first won election to Congress in the Tea Party wave of 2010. He handily won reelection four times, although his margin of victory has declined significantly since an 80-20 win in 2012.  After a 32 point win in 2014, Flores won by about 25 points in 2016 and 15 points this past November.  Despite the narrowing spreads, the 17th district, which includes Waco, College Station and northern portions of the Austin area, is still considered safely Republican for 2020.

The Senate Interactive Map has been updated with the Georgia special election.  The initial consensus rating is Leans Republican.

The added Georgia election will be for the final two years of Sen. Johnny Isakson's term. Isakson recently announced his resignation, effective at the end of this year.  Gov. Brian Kemp will select a replacement who will serve until the winner of the special election takes office in January, 2021.

Long-time GOP Rep. John Shimkus of Illinois announced Friday that he would not seek reelection in 2020.

Rep. John Shimkus announcing now on KMOX that he will not seek re-election. Statement: pic.twitter.com/xX6I4g7uQl

— Jordan Haverly (@jhaverly) August 30, 2019

The state's 15th congressional district is the largest by land area. It is also the most conservative; Shimkus won a 12th term in 2018 by 44%; President Trump's margin was slightly better than that in 2016. 

Shimkus is the 15th current House member to announce a 2020 retirement.  12 are Republicans, 3 Democrats.  The retirement map excludes Rep. Sean Duffy (R, WI-7) who said earlier this week that he will resign his seat on September 23.