Following the 2018 midterm elections, the number of states with a split U.S. Senate delegation will drop from 14 to just 10 in 2019. This marks the fourth consecutive election with a decline. This is also just one above the historically low value* of nine split delegations set in 1955-56.
The chart below, from a Pew Research study, shows the totals by state for the past fifty years, ending before this year's midterms. After Democrat Doug Jones won a 2017 special election in Alabama, 14 states had a split delegation.
The 2018 midterm elections saw five states move off that list, with one added. Democratic incumbents in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota were defeated as was the Republican incumbent in Nevada. All five of those states moved to a single-party delegation. Interestingly, these were the only five incumbents to lose re-election. The open seat in Arizona was a Democratic gain; that will now have one Senator from each party. As a result, in 2019, 22 states will have two Republican Senators and 18 states will have two Democratic Senators.
* Since direct election of U.S. Senators began after the passage of the 17th Amendment in 1913. There were 48 states from 1913 until 1959. Independents are counted separately, even if caucusing with a major party.
Democrat TJ Cox is the projected winner in California's 21st congressional district, defeating incumbent Republican David Valadao. This was the final House race to be called. Democrats have a net gain of 40 seats, and will hold a 235-200 edge on the GOP when the new House is seated during the first week of January.
It is over for Congressman David Valadao in #CA21. His best county's provisionals reported today, and broke for the Democrat, TJ Cox. Outstanding votes are going to be more of the same.— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 28, 2018
That makes a forty seat gain for the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives.
Almost all media outlets had initially called the race for Valadao, who led by 8% on election night. However, his lead steadily shrunk as more votes were counted, and these same outlets were forced to retract that call. Cox took the lead for good two days ago.
California 21st District Results
Seven of California's 53 congressional districts sided with Hillary Clinton in 2016 while re-electing a GOP member of Congress. All seven of these districts were flipped to the Democrats this year. That party will now hold 46 of those 53 seats. This spreadsheet shows the change in partisan composition by state as a result of the midterm election.
Mississippi Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith won the state's special election runoff Tuesday. Appointed when former Sen. Thad Cochran resigned last spring, Hyde-Smith will now serve out the remainder of his term. The seat will be up again in 2020.
With this result, the 2018 Senate elections have come to a close. The GOP maintains control, with a net gain of two seats in the midterm elections. They will go into 2019 with a 53-47 edgea. Overall, six seats changed hands. Republicans won seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota, while Democrats were able to take the seats in Arizona and Nevada.
Note that you may hear that Republicans gained one seat (not two) during this election cycle. This is accurate, with the difference attributable to the 2017 special election in Alabama that saw a Democratic gain.
Click the image below to see the results for all 35 elections. We also have an interactive version of the 2018 actual results.
For those that have asked, look for the 2020 Senate interactive map during the first quarter of 2019.
All else equal, 2018 was a difficult year for Democrats, as the party had to defend 26 of the 35 seats that were contested (25-8 excluding special elections). Things will be somewhat reversed in the next two cycles, with Republican having to defend over 60% of the seats up in 2020 and again in 2022. As 2018 saw a two-seat gain for the GOP, the 2024 cycle will go from 25-8 Democrats to 23-10a.
Note that the GOP number of 22 in 2020 includes a special election in Arizona. The winner will complete the final two years of the seat previously held by Sen. John McCain, who died in 2018. That seat is currently excluded from the 2022 counts.
aIndependent Senators in Maine and Vermont caucus with the Democratic Party
The final seat in the U.S. Senate will be decided today as Mississippi holds a runoff election. Polls close at 7:00 PM local time (8:00 PM Eastern). Live results will be available in the table below after that time. Reload the page for the latest totals.
The runoff is between Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and her Democratic challenger, former U.S. Rep. Mike Espy. It was necessitated when none of the four candidates in the November 6th special election received a majority of the vote.
Hyde-Smith was appointed by Gov. Phil Bryant, taking office after former Sen. Thad Cochran resigned this past April. The winner of today's runoff will serve the remainder of Cochran's term. The seat is next up for a full six-year term in the 2020 election.
Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is favored in this deep-red state. However, the race appeared to tighten after several racially tinged controversies involving Hyde-Smith arose. Both parties added resources, and President Trump headlined two election-eve campaign rallies.
Although Espy and Hyde-Smith were within 0.5% in the November 6th vote, the two GOP candidates together totaled nearly 58% - a 17 point margin over Espy. Interestingly, the party totals that day were nearly identical to Trump's 57.9% to 40.1% win over Clinton in 2016. The only subsequent poll, taken last week, gave Hyde-Smith a 54% to 44% edge in the two-person runoff.
Regardless of the outcome, the GOP will retain control of the Senate in 2019. The party will have 53 seats if Hyde-Smith wins, which would be a net gain of two in the 2018 elections.
Incumbent Rob Woodall prevailed by 433 votes after a recount in Georgia's 7th congressional district. At the time, this was the final uncalled race and it appeared Democrats would have a 234-201 advantage in January when the new House is seated.
However, late today, our results partner Decision Desk HQ retracted their earlier call of a GOP win in California's 21st congressional district. They say that race is now too close to call.
"Rep. Valadao’s lead has shrunk from over 4,900 and 8% on 11/7 to just over 400 with thousands of additional ballots left to count in areas favoring Cox. It is still quite possible for Valadao to hold his seat, but if he does, it will be by a very, very slim margin, certainly not the margin inferred on election night."
California 21st District
As a result, the day ends as it began, with Democrats holding a 234-200 edge, and one race undecided.
Our results partner, Decision Desk HQ has called Utah's 4th congressional district for Ben McAdams. This is the 39th pickup for the Democratic Party. Only one race - Georgia's 7th district - remains uncalled. Republican incumbent Rob Woodall is favored here; but the challenger Carolyn Bourdeaux has requested a recount.
As of this writing, the race hasn't officially been called by the Associated Press or our results partner, Decision Desk. However, we have updated our 2018 Actual Interactive Map to reflect the expected outcome.
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson conceded the Florida Senate race Sunday afternoon. Gov. Rick Scott prevailed after two rounds of recounts. Republicans have secured 52 Senate seats compared to 47 for Democrats, ensuring the party maintains control of the chamber. The Mississippi runoff election will decide the final seat.
Six of the 34 races completed resulted in a victory for the out-party. Republicans picked up four of those wins, Democrats two. Click the image below to see all the results; you can then click any of the state for vote totals from that race. We also have an interactive version of the 2018 actual results.
The Mississippi runoff is scheduled for Tuesday, November 27th. Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is favored in this deep-red state. However, with both parties adding resources, and Donald Trump planning two election-eve rallies, the race is looking more competitive than originally expected. Much of the tightening can be traced back to an offhand comment Hyde-Smith made about lynchings as well as her unwillingness to address the controversy it caused.
Democrat Stacey Abrams effectively conceded defeat Friday afternoon, acknowledging that Republican Brian Kemp will be Georgia's next governor. All 36 gubernatorial elections have now been called by our results partner, Decision Desk HQ.
Prior to the election, Republicans held 33 of the 50 governorships, with 16 Democrats and 1 independent holding the remaining seats. Democrats flipped seven seats, winning Republican-held seats in Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada and Wisconsin. The lone GOP gain came in Alaska.
Click the image below to see the results for all 36 elections. We also have an interactive version of the 2018 actual results.
Next year will see gubernatorial elections in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. First term governors Matt Bevin (R, KY) and John Bel Edwards (D, LA) are expected to seek re-election. Gov. Phil Bryant (R) is term-limited in Mississippi. The 2019 elections will be held on Tuesday, November 5th.
Although a handful of districts remain uncalled, we now know which party will be in the majority in each state's 2019 U.S. House delegation. Republicans will have the majority in 26 states, while Democrats will have the most members in 22. Two states, Michigan and Pennsylvania will be tied. The concentration of Democratic districts in a small number of states gives the GOP a structural advantage in this count. They will hold the lead despite a Democratic majority overall.
However, this marks a significant improvement for Democrats relative to the current House, in which the GOP has a partisan edge in 32 states to 17, with Maine the lone tie. Come January, Democrats will be in the majority in five additional delegations: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine and Virginia.
That's nice info, but who cares? The count would come into play if a presidential election ended with no candidate reaching 270 electoral votes. In that case, the House would select the president, with each state receiving one vote. Note that should this occur with the 2020 election, it is the House elected in November, 2020 that would take the vote. The partisan distribution by state could be totally different after the next election, of course.
Here's the data in a Google Sheet.
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