Election News

Electoral College Projections as of October 26th

October 27, 2016

We gathered up the projections of 14 organizations again Wednesday. While several forecasts have been updated since our last look on October 21st, not much has changed overall. Hillary Clinton now averages 306 electoral votes, Donald Trump 179. The changed forecasts are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

It is worth noting that there is a significant difference between the forecasts that have not been updated in the past five days vs. those that have. The more recent forecasts put Clinton at 324 electoral votes (vs. 281 in the older projections). Trump's number is little changed, but we've seen about 20 of his electoral votes move out of the 'favored' category.  

Will the older forecasts 'catch up' when they are updated? Perhaps, but there has been some tightening in the state polls this week. Trump had a small lead in a Florida poll out yesterday and he has regained the lead in Ohio. New Hampshire has also trended closer. That's 51 competitive electoral votes in those three states. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.



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Trump Leads in Two New Texas Polls

October 27, 2016

Donald Trump leads by 3 points in a new University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll, while the lead is 7 in a poll released by Crosswind/American Statesman

While limited, polling in the Lone Star State has been pretty similar over the past several weeks, with most surveys showing a small, but consistent lead of about 3 points for Trump. This spread was seen again in today's U. Texas poll.

Trump now leads by 3.6% on average. While that spread keeps Texas a toss-up in the electoral map based on polls, the consistency of the polling - not to mention the state's voting history - would point to him having the advantage with just over 10 days to go until Election Day.


State of the Race in 3 Maps

October 26, 2016

These are three of the more popular maps on 270toWin; here they are as of October 26th.

Click or tap any of the maps for more detail and an interactive version. 

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Consensus Pundit Map: This is the composite Election Day forecast of 15 organizations. For purposes of this map, only states rated safe by at least 13 pundits are shown in the darkest shade of red or blue.  

 

 
 
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Polling Map: The electoral map based purely on polling. More of an 'if the election were held today' look at things. For this map, states where the average margin is 5 points or less are shown as toss-up, while those where it is greater than 10 points are shown as safe.
 

 
 
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Polling Map, No-Tossups: This is who leads the polls in each state, regardless of how small that lead is.
 
 
 

Electoral College Projections as of October 21st

October 21, 2016

Several forecasters have updated their electoral college projections since our last review just two days ago. Those are highlighted in bold in the table below. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

Hillary Clinton's average lead has increased by 12 since Wednesday, with Clinton up four to 304, while Donald Trump dropped 8 to 179. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.


Electoral College Projections as of October 19th

October 19, 2016

As we head into the final presidential debate, and with just under three weeks to go until the 2016 presidential election, here's the state of the race from the viewpoint of 14 forecasters. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

Since our last update on October 13th, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump's average total electoral votes are little changed. Clinton is at 300, Trump 187. Within Trump's average, however, we are beginning to see an erosion in states where the Republican nominee is favored vs. those that are leaning in his direction. For example, a couple forecasters have moved Texas from favored to leaning. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) in the table may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.


Clinton Leads by 8 Nationally After Two New Polls

October 16, 2016

Hillary Clinton is averaging an 8 point lead nationally over Donald Trump after the release of two new polls Sunday morning. An ABC News / Washington Post poll showed Clinton with a 4 point lead, while an NBC News / WSJ poll showed her with a 10 point advantage (11 when including third parties).

While these two polls offered significantly different results, and will likely be individually cited by partisans of the respective candidates, the average of the two is very close to the overall average of all recent national polls. This again highlights why it is better to look at the average of multiple polls vs. any single one.


Lone Star State in Play? Trump Leads by Just 4 in New Poll

October 14, 2016

SurveyUSA finds a fairly close race in Texas, with Donald Trump having a four point edge on Hillary Clinton. From the pollster: "No Republican has carried Texas by fewer than 13 points since Bob Dole defeated Bill Clinton by 5 points 20 years ago, when Texan Ross Perot siphoned 7% of the vote. Today, Trump leads by 33 points among white Texans, but Clinton leads by 64 points among African Americans and by 23 points among Latinos."

 

Trump still leads by about 6 points in the state polling average, and he has led every poll (aside from a tied online survey) conducted this year. While the state will almost certainly yield a closer result in 2016 than in recent elections, Trump should prevail here barring a Clinton landslide. Texas last voted Democratic for Jimmy Carter in 1976.

The state still rates as leaning Trump in the electoral map based on polls.


Electoral College Projections as of October 13th

October 13, 2016

With just under four weeks to go until the 2016 presidential election, here's the state of the race from the viewpoint of 14 forecasters. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

Since our last update on October 5th, Hillary Clinton's average total electoral votes climbed from 280 to 300, most of which derived from forecasters moving states out of toss-up. Donald Trump's average only fell slightly, from 193 to 189. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.


Six Seats May Decide the Battle for Senate Control

October 13, 2016

Depending on how the presidential race shakes out over the next four weeks, the biggest battle on Election Day may be for control of the U.S. Senate. Republicans currently control with 54 seats, Democrats (including two independents) have 46. Since the Vice-President breaks any ties, Democrats will need to gain four seats if Clinton wins, five if Trump prevails.

Of the 34 seats up this year, 24 are currently held by Republicans. Looking at the Senate ratings from three pundits (Sabato, Cook, Rothenberg & Gonzales), 18 seats seem to be safe for the incumbent party. Of the remaining 16, five are rated safe by two of the three pundits, so are not likely to change hands. That leaves 11 competitive seats, only one of which - Nevada - is currently in Democratic hands.

 

Looking at those 11 seats, Illinois and Wisconsin seem to be the Republican seats most likely to flip, although the Wisconsin polling has been quite a bit closer lately. The incumbent Republicans in three states (Arizona, Florida, Ohio) are leading in the polls. If those five seats fall that way, we'll have 47 Democrats and 47 Republicans, meaning control of the Senate would depend on the remaining six toss-up races:


Click or tap the map to create and share your own 2016 Senate forecast. 


Poll Finds Clinton, Trump Tied in Utah; Independent McMullin Within Striking Distance

October 12, 2016

A fascinating new poll out in Utah has Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump tied, with independent conservative Evan McMullin close behind, within the margin of error. Gary Johnson also makes a significant showing, with the non-major party candidates combining for a total well in excess of either Clinton or Trump. This sets the stage for a possible win by a third party in Utah this year, if Utahns can settle on either McMullin or Johnson. 

 

Our three-way electoral map allows you to consider the possibility that a 3rd party could win electoral votes in 2016. Specific names can be set by clicking to the left of the electoral counter. We've given Utah to McMullin in the example below.



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