Estimated Delegates Earned
Delegate counts will be available beginning with the first primaries. There are an estimated 3,788 pledged delegates; it will take a minimum of 1,895 of these to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot. 774 automatic delegates will not participate on the first ballot (unless the nomination is uncontested). This approach was first used in 2020.
The map below shows the estimated total number of delegates each state or territory will send to the Democratic convention. Select a state on the map for more details about its primary or caucus. Each linked page will also include any available polling, along with results information as the event takes place.
|Early||Super Tuesday March 5||Other March||April||May||June|
Democratic contests allocate pledged delegates proportionately to candidates receiving at least 15% of the popular vote. In most locations, some delegates are awarded on the statewide vote, while others are jurisdictional (usually by congressional district).
The 15% threshold is calculated separately at each division. That means, for example, a candidate getting less than 15% statewide but more than 15% in a congressional district may still win one or more delegates. Special thanks to The Greenpapers and FHQ for making it a lot easier to aggregate the data. Visit those sites for the finer details of the state-by-state allocation rules.
The results of national polling for a preferred Democratic nominee is shown below. While these national polls are directionally interesting, the nominee will ultimately be chosen based on delegates earned during state-by-state primary and caucus votes.
|Economist / YouGov||12/06/2023||1,290 RV ±3.1%||42%||-||-||-||58%|
|Echelon Insights||11/22/2023||484 LV||67%||6%||5%||-||22%|
|Emerson College||11/22/2023||599 RV||66%||5%||2%||-||27%|
|McLaughlin & Associates||11/21/2023||440 LV||66%||9%||3%||-||22%|
|NBC News||11/19/2023||311 RV ±5.6%||77%||12%||4%||-||7%|
|Fox News||11/15/2023||386 RV ±5%||72%||13%||3%||-||12%|
|Yahoo / YouGov||11/15/2023||461 RV||64%||4%||4%||-||28%|
|Quinnipiac||11/15/2023||666 RV ±3.8%||74%||12%||4%||-||10%|
|Echelon Insights||11/01/2023||472 LV||59%||7%||1%||-||33%|
†The average includes the most recent poll from each source within the past 30 days, up to a maximum of five. If five polls are found, and there are other qualifying polls on that same calendar date, those will also be included.