2024 House Election Forecasts
These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2024 House forecast.
2024 House Election: Consensus Forecast
A consensus outlook for the 2024 House Elections based on the current ratings of these forecasters. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your won 2024 House forecast. You can also view this forecast as a table.
This map is a composite of ratings by several forecasters. Not all forecasters have made projections for the states listed below.
September 19: CO-03, NE-02, VA-02 move from Leans Republican to Toss-up; MI-04 Safe to Likely Republican; MI-8 Leans to Likely Democratic.
Note that several states, including Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, New York, and North Carolina may have additional redistricting and new maps for 2024. We have largely gone with the status quo in these states as the forecasters have taken different approaches to rating these districts.
Crystal Ball 2024 House Ratings
The current 2023 House ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 House forecast.
You can also view these ratings in a table.
September 13: OH-01 and OH-09 move from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Read the analysis >
Note that one Alabama district is expected to move from Safe Republican to Likely Democratic after additional redistricting is complete. This is not reflected on the map since the district cannot be specified.
Cook Political Report 2024 House Ratings
The current 2023 House ratings from Cook Political Report. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 House forecast.
September 19: VA-10 moves from Safe to Likely Democratic. Read the analysis ($)
Elections Daily 2024 House Ratings
The current 2024 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage.
Note that states in dark gray have no ratings. In these locations, additional redistricting - not yet completed - is likely to change boundaries for the 2024 election.
September 7: Ohio ratings added, as courts dismiss challenge to existing map. Read the analysis >
Inside Elections 2024 House Ratings
The current 2024 House ratings from Inside Elections. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 House forecast. You can also view these ratings as a table.
Note that no ratings have been set yet for North Carolina or Ohio, where an additional redistricting is expected to change boundaries for the 2024 election.
September 15: Ohio ratings added as 2024 map will be unchanged. CO-03 moves from Lean to Tilt R; FL-23, TX-28 Likely to Safe D; IA-01, MT-01 Likely to Lean R; NJ-07 Toss-up to Tilt R; NV-01 Lean to Likely D; OR-04 Safe to Likely D; VA-07 Lean to Tilt D; WA-8 Lean to Likely D
Split Ticket 2024 House Ratings
The current 2024 House ratings from Split Ticket, a nonpartisan political content and mapping site. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 House forecast.
You can also view these ratings in a table.
September 18: CA-03, FL-13, IA-01 move from Likely to Leans R; CO-03, MI-10, NE-02, VA-02 Leans R to Toss-up; FL-07, FL-15, FL-27, MI-04, MO-02, NY-02, VA-01, WI-01 Safe to Likely R; IN-01, MI-08, NY-18, OH-01 Leans to Likely D; MI-03, OR-04 Likely to Safe D; NY-04 Toss-up to Leans D Analysis >
