2024 President: Consensus Electoral Map

As of September 10, 2024

This map tracks the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters

Only seats rated safe by a large majority of forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of red or blue. 

As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.

The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

September 10: Alaska moves from Likely to Safe Republican; New Hampshire Leans to Likely Democratic.

To compare this map to a map based just on polling, go here >

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Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island Primaries

September 10, 2024

The final three statewide primaries before the November 5 general election take place Tuesday

Overview and Live Results: Massachusetts Primary

September 3, 2024

Outside two GOP congressional primaries, there's not all that much to see in this Democratic stronghold

Live Results: Oklahoma Legislative Runoffs, Tulsa Mayoral Election

August 27, 2024

Top two runoffs are required in 10 state legislative districts where no candidate received a majority in the June 18 primary

538 Forecast Model Relaunches for Harris vs. Trump General Election

August 23, 2024

The forecast starts with a small lead for Harris, but the site notes a wide range of outcomes are ultimately possible

Overview and Live Results: Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming primaries

August 20, 2024

Just a handful of 2024 primaries will remain after Tuesday's contests