2024 President: Consensus Electoral Map

As of July 12, 2024

This map tracks the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters

Only seats rated safe by a large majority of forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of red or blue. 

As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.

The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

July 13: Washington moves from Likely to Safe Democratic.

July 12: Two probabilistic forecasts added to the consensus. JHK Forecasts is the model underlying the just-released 2024 Simulator. We've also incorporated the model from 538.

We have a separate map that only considers polling. Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As the election nears, the two maps should converge.

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Run a simulated Biden - Trump election or view the results of 25,000 daily simulations

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