2024 President: Consensus Electoral Map

As of February 6, 2024

This map will track the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters. Only seats rated safe by all are shown as 'safe' for the incumbent party.

As a result of Census apportionment, some states have a different number of electoral votes in 2024. Use the buttons above the map to see what has changed.

The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

February 6: No changes

For those interested, we have a separate map that only considers polling. In using that map, keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As such, they may be of limited predictive value until the election gets much closer.

no 2024 election
no 2024 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
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ME
NE

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

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Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Michigan Presidential Primary

February 27, 2024

Democrats pushed the state to the front of the nominating calendar; Republicans will hold a split event to accommodate party rules

Overview and Live Results: South Carolina Republican Primary

February 24, 2024

The winner of this primary has been the GOP nominee in all but one cycle since 1980

Overview and Live Results: Milwaukee Mayoral Primary

February 20, 2024

Mayor Cavalier Johnson is seeking reelection to a full four-year term

Overview and Live Results: Special Election Tuesday to Fill the Congressional Seat Held by George Santos

February 13, 2024

Several legislative special elections are also being held Tuesday

Wisconsin Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher Won't Seek Reelection

February 10, 2024

The move comes just days after he bucked his party, voting against the impeachment of Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas