Election News

Rep. Filemon Vela of Texas Will Not Seek Reelection

Rep. Fileman Vela (TX-34) announced Monday that he will not seek a 6th term in 2022. Vela becomes the third member in the past day to announce their departure at the end of this term.  Jody Hice (R, GA-10) is running for Secretary of State; Tom Reed (R, NY-23) is not seeking any office

Vela's South Texas district - oddly shaped like many in the state - runs from the Mexican border up to east of San Antonio, bypassing Corpus Christi along the way. Vela won reelection by about 14% in 2020, running well ahead of Joe Biden, who won by just five points.

Texas has seen rapid population growth in recent decades, gaining from 2-4 congressional seats after each of the last four Census reapportionments. It is expected to gain three more this year, bringing the total to 39.

Rep. Jody Hice to Primary Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger

Four-term Rep. Jody Hice announced Monday that he will look to unseat Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger in 2022. Hice is expected to secure an endorsement from Donald Trump, as the former president seeks revenge against Raffensperger for defying him in the aftermath of Joe Biden's narrow win in the state's 2020 presidential election.

Hice's move creates a 2022 open seat in Georgia's 10th district, a safely GOP district that runs eastward from the outskirts of the Atlanta area to west of Augusta. Hice and Donald Trump both won by over 20 points here in 2020. Note that after Census-driven redistricting, the boundaries of the district will likely change for 2022.

Hice is the 2nd Republican in as many days to say they will not run for reelection in 2022. NY-23 Rep. Tom Reed made his announcement Sunday.

 

New York Rep. Tom Reed Not Running for Office in 2022

Responding to a recent accusation of groping, GOP Rep. Tom Reed of New York put out a statement Sunday saying that he would not run for any elected office in 2022. Reed will not seek a 7th term in the House, nor will he run for governor, a possibility he had been seriously considering. Ironically, it is Democratic Gov. Mario Cuomo's own issues with harassment that created an opening for Reed to consider what would otherwise be an extremely long-shot challenge in this deep blue state.

Reed represents the largely rural 23rd district that borders Pennsylvania from Lake Erie to west of Binghamton. Reed won reelection by nearly 17% in 2020, while Donald Trump won here by 11% over Joe Biden.

Reed is the first Republican to announce a retirement this cycle. New York will lose at least one - possibly two - House seats (as of January, 2023) when the results of the delayed 2020 Census are finally released. After peaking at 45 districts in the 1940s, the state has lost at least two in each of the last seven Census reapportionments.

Louisiana Congressional Special Elections: Overview and Live Results

There are currently five vacancies in the U.S. House of Representatives.  Elections for the two open seats in Louisiana are Saturday. These are in the form of a 'jungle primary', where all candidates from all parties appear on a single ballot. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, the top two - even if of the same party - will advance to an April 24 runoff.

Polls close at 9:00 PM Eastern Time. Live results will appear below after that time.

District 2: Former Rep. Cedric Richmond won a 5th term, with 64% of the vote, in this safely Democratic district that includes most of New Orleans. Richmond resigned January 15 to join the Biden administration. A field of 15 is vying to succeed him in Saturday's primary.  Democratic State Sens. Troy Carter and Karen Peterson appear to be the frontrunners. Carter has scored most of the political and newspaper endorsements, while the more progressive Peterson has gotten the support of Stacey Abrams and Emily's List. Activist Gary Chambers, also a Democrat, is the only other candidate seeing notable support in limited polling. In a recent poll, Carter received 35% support, Peterson 24% and Chambers 11%.

An April 24 runoff is likely between two of these three candidates.

District 5: The largest by area, this district encompasses the northeast part of the state. It is safely GOP territory, represented for three terms by Ralph Abraham, who was first elected in 2014. Abraham did not run in 2020. Republican Luke Letlow won this seat in a December runoff against fellow Republican Lance Harris. Letlow died on December 29, just days before he would have been seated.  Julia Letlow, Luke's widow, is the heavy favorite in this field of 12. The only real question is whether she wins the race outright on Saturday (by getting a majority of the vote) or whether she wins in an April 24 runoff. 

House Composition and Vacancies

There are currently 219 Democrats and 211 Republicans in the House, with five vacancies.  In addition to the two Louisiana seats discussed above:

  • NM-1 vacated by Deb Haaland (D) earlier this week after she was confirmed to be Secretary of the Interior.  Party committees will select nominees for the June 1 special election. Likely to Safe Democratic
  • OH-11 vacated by Marcia Fudge (D) on March 10 after she was confirmed to be Secretary of HUD. A primary will be held August 3, with the general election November 2. Safe Democratic
  • TX-6 vacated upon the death of Ron Wright (R) on February 7. An all-party primary will be held May 1. If no candidate receives a majority, a top two runoff will follow with a date TBA. Lean to Likely Republican

Arizona Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick Not Running in 2022

Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona announced Friday that she will not seek reelection in 2022. Kirkpatrick has served her five terms across three separate spans. She was first elected in 2008 in District 1, a sprawling region that covered most of the eastern half of the state.  Kirkpatrick lost reelection in 2010 to Republican Paul Gosar.  After the Census, District 1 became more favorable to Democrats and Kirkpatrick successfully ran for her old seat in 2012. (Gosar ran in District 4 where he still serves today).

Kirkpatrick unsuccessfully challenged Republican Senator John McCain in 2016. She returned to the House after winning the 2018 election in District 2, which encompasses the  southeastern corner of the state. She won her final term in 2020 by 10 points.

The only other retirement announced thus far this cycle is Eddie Johnson (D, TX-30). In 2019, Johnson said "I fully intended to retire after my current term, but with much pressure and encouragement, I have agreed to one more term." More departures are sure to follow, with some driven by the upcoming Census redistricting. However, with those Census results significantly delayed, the 2022 cycle will likely develop much more slowly than usual.

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Initial 2022 Gubernatorial Overview and Ratings

Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with an overview of the 2022 gubernatorial landscape. 36 seats will be contested next year, of which 20 are held by Republicans. There are an additional two elections in Democratic-held seats this year. Sabato reviewed the New Jersey and Virginia contests last week.

The map below includes ratings for all 38 contests to be held through 2022. Click/tap it for an interactive version.

Gov. Ralph Northam (D) is unable to run for reeelection this year due to term limits; seven governors are term-limited next year.  Three of those are in what should be highly-competitive races: Arizona (Doug Ducey, R); Maryland (Larry Hogan, R); Pennsylvania (Tom Wolf, D).  Sabato sees Maryland as most likely to flip. Hogan, while popular, was an upset winner in 2014 in one of the most Democratic states in the country. It was one of only three states (Massachusetts, Vermont) where Joe Biden won by more than 30% against Donald Trump.

Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt Not Running for Reelection in 2022

Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt said Monday saying that he won't seek a third term in 2022. He made the announcement via a video release:

Blunt becomes the fifth Republican Senator to retire this cycle.  The others are Richard Burr (NC), Rob Portman (OH), Richard Shelby (AL) and Pat Toomey (PA). There will be 34 total seats contested next year. 20 of these - including the five departing - are Republicans, while 14 are Democrats.  See the 2022 Interactive Senate Map for more information.

New and Updated Features on the 270toWin Website

A summary of some content changes to the 270toWin website in recent weeks:

2024 Electoral Map  There will be a revised electoral map for the next presidential election, based on each state's population as reported in the 2020 Census. The release of that information - usually in December of the Census year - has been delayed until April largely due to the coronavirus. While we don't have the official 2024 map yet, the changes are still expected to be largely the same as those projected at the end of 2019.  The interactive electoral map has been updated to reflect that. Using the buttons above the map, you can see how things will change.  For example, the 306-232 result in the actual 2020 election becomes 302-236 if repeated in 2024.  

Historical Presidential Elections To make these maps more informative, we've replaced the stripes associated with split votes with actual numbers.  Where applicable, there is also a split for 'Other'. These are faithless electoral votes cast for someone not on the ballot or electoral votes not cast. Refer to the Election Facts section on the map page for more details on any splits associated with the election you are viewing. 

2022 Senate Map 34 seats are scheduled for the 2022 midterms. 20 are held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats. With roughly the same number of competitive seats held by each party, another closely-contested battle for control is in the offing.  Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report are out with initial race ratings.

2021-22 Governor Map  New Jersey and Virginia hold elections this year, 36 more states follow in 2022.  The Cook Political Report issued its initial ratings earlier this month.

The 2022 House map is not yet ready. In any event, an accurate nationwide 2022 map likely won't be available for about a year as states go through the redistricting process triggered by the Census.

State Pages The Recent Presidential Elections section has been expanded with the option to view popular vote percentages back to 1976.  

Republican Claudia Tenney Wins NY-22; Final Undecided House Race from November

It took over three months but there's finally a winner in the November 3 congressional race in NY-22.  Republican Claudia Tenney has won by 109 votes out of nearly 320,000 cast over incumbent Democrat Anthony Brindisi. 

After an extended review, a judge ruled Friday that Tenney had won the race. New York certified the election results at noon Monday, and Brindisi conceded shortly thereafter, saying he would drop any further legal appeals.

Tenney will return to the seat she won by 5 points in the 2016 election. She lost her reelection bid to Brindisi by about 2 points in 2018. 

In the end, Democrats won 222 seats in November's election while Republicans took 213. While Democrats maintained control, their margin was significantly reduced.  The GOP had a net gain of 12 seats, including one in MI-3, which was vacated by Libertarian Justin Amash.

Currently, the House sits at  221 Democrats and 210 Republicans. There are four vacancies. In addition to NY-22, where Tenney should be seated in the near future:

  • LA-2 Democrat Cedric Richmond resigned last month to join the Biden administration. 
  • LA-5 Republican Luke Letlow died of Covid-19 on December 29, less than a week before he would have been sworn in
  • TX-6 Republican Ron Wright died Sunday after contracting Covid-19.  He is the first sitting member of Congress to die from the virus

There will be all-party primaries for the two Louisiana seats on March 20. If no candidate gets a majority of the vote in a particular race, a top-two runoff will be April 24. The incumbent party is heavily favored in both cases.

No date has been set for a special election in the TX-6. This largely suburban district includes some of the area between Forth Worth and Dallas and includes Ellis and Navarro counties to the south of Dallas. Wright won a 2nd term in November by about 9 points.

Two other Democratic-held seats are likely to be vacated in the near future. Deb Haaland (NM-1) and Marcia Fudge (OH-11) have been nominated for Cabinet positions and are awaiting Senate confirmation.

 

Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby Won't Seek Reelection in 2022

Sen. Richard Shelby of Alabama said Monday that he will not run again in 2022. The six-term Republican is the longest serving Senator in the state's history.

Shelby becomes the fourth Senator - all Republicans - to announce their retirement this cycle.  The others are Richard Burr (NC), Rob Portman (OH), and Pat Toomey (PA). While those other states are expected to be somewhat to highly competitive, the GOP is very likely to hold the seat in this deep red state. Democrat Doug Jones was able to narrowly win a Senate seat here in 2017, but that was a special election with a flawed Republican nominee. Up for a regular six-year term this past November, Jones lost to Republican Tommy Tuberville by 20 points.

In total, 34 Senate seats will be contested next year. Create and share your forecast with the 2022 Senate Interactive Map.