2024 Senate Election Forecasts

These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2024 Senate forecast.

2024 Senate Elections: Consensus Forecast

The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

This map is a composite of ratings by several forecasters. Only seats rated safe by all are shown as 'safe' for the incumbent party.

February 9: Maryland moves from Safe to Likely Democratic after Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan enters the race.

Crystal Ball 2024 Senate Ratings

The current 2024 Senate ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Use them to create and share your own Senate forecast.

The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

February 9: Maryland moves from Safe to Likely Democratic after Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan enters the race.

Cook Political Report 2024 Senate Ratings

The current 2024 Senate ratings from The Cook Political Report. Use them to create and share your own Senate forecast.

The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

February 9: Maryland moves from Safe to Likely Democratic after Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan enters the race.

 

 

Inside Elections 2024 Senate Ratings

This map reflects the current 2024 Senate ratings from Inside Elections. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own forecast.

The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

February 9: Maryland moves from Safe to Likely Democratic; Michigan Leans to Tilts Democratic; New Jersey Likely to Safe Democratic.

Split Ticket 2024 Senate Ratings

The current 2024 Senate ratings from Split Ticket. Use it to create and share your own Senate forecast.

The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

January 2: Montana moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican Read the analysis >

 

Elections Daily 2024 Senate Ratings

The current 2024 Senate ratings from Elections Daily. Use them to create and share your own Senate forecast.

The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

May 4: West Virginia moves from Likely to Safe Republican. Read the analysis >

 

 

U.S. News 2024 Senate Ratings

The current 2024 Senate ratings from Louis Jacobson for U.S. News. Jacobson is a senior correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024

The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

January 2: Arizona moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; West Virginia from Leans to Safe Republican. Read the analysis > 

U.S. News 2024 Senate Ratings

The current 2024 Senate ratings from Louis Jacobson for U.S. News. Jacobson is a senior correspondent with PolitiFact and senior author of the Almanac of American Politics 2024

The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including three independents) and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

January 2: Arizona moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic; West Virginia from Leans to Safe Republican. Read the analysis >