Utah Republican Senator Orrin Hatch announced he will retire at the end of this year. The departure opens the door to a likely run by Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican presidential nominee and former Massachusetts governor. Romney reportedly indicated to associates last year that he would enter the race if Hatch chose not to run.
Now in his 7th term, Hatch is the longest-serving Republican in the Senate. He joined in early 1977 after winning in 1976. Only Vermont's Patrick Leahy, who entered the Senate in 1975, has served longer. Leahy was elected to an 8th term in 2016.
Two new Senators will be seated Wednesday as the 2nd session of the 115th Congress convenes. Alabama Democrat Doug Jones will replace Republican Sen. Luther Strange, while Democratic Minnesota Lt. Gov. Tina Smith will fill the seat being vacated by fellow Democrat Sen. Al Franken.
Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore in a special election on December 12th. He is the first Democrat to win a Senate election in Alabama since 1992, when Richard Shelby was reelected to a 2nd term. Shelby would become a Republican two years later. Now in his 6th term, Shelby remains the state's senior Senator. Jones will serve the remainder of the term. The seat is up again in 2020.
Minnesota Sen. Al Franken has set January 2, 2018 as his resignation date. His replacement, Lt. Gov. Tina Smith, will be sworn in the following day. She was appointed to the position by Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton after Franken announced his intention to resign earlier this month.
When Smith is seated, Minnesota will become just the 6th state to ever have two female Senators serving simultaneously. The other five include California, New Hampshire, Washington, Kansas and Maine. The first three states in that list currently have two women in the Senate.
Smith's appointment is temporary. Minnesota will hold a special election coinciding with the midterm elections next November. The winner will serve the final two years of Franken's term. That seat's next regularly scheduled election is in 2020.
The Census Bureau released its annual national and state population estimates on Wednesday, noting that Idaho was the nation's fastest growing state for the year ending July 1, 2017. Election Data Services has extrapolated population growth from 2010-17 through to 2020, when the next Census will take place.
Among other things, the Census will determine how the 435 congressional districts will be reallocated next decade. This, in turn will determine changes to the electoral map. Each state receives an allocation of electoral votes equal to the number of congressional districts it has plus two for its Senators.
At this point, Texas and Florida look to be the big winners, gaining 3 and 2 electoral votes, respectively. Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Oregon will gain one each. As the number of electoral votes is fixed, these 9 increased votes must come from somewhere else. The current projection is that Alabama, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia are on track to lose one each. This projection is virtually unchanged from late 2016. The only difference is that Illinois, as opposed to Texas, would be allocated the final congressional district.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed the tax reform bill Tuesday. The measure will now head to the U.S. Senate. If approved, it will then forwarded to President Trump for his signature.
227 Republicans supported the measure, while 12 opposed. 191 Democrats voted against the measure, while 2 did not vote. Of the 12 Republicans voting no, 11 are from California, New Jersey, or New York, all states with areas of expensive real estate, as well as a high income and/or property tax burden. The bill places limits on the amount of these taxes that can be deducted, as well a reduced mortgage interest deduction.
Curious how your representative voted? You can check here. That page also shows how each representative in a competitive 2018 district voted. Click or tap a state to see how each member of that state's delegation voted.
Nevada Rep. Ruben Kihuen, who is facing multiple sexual harassment claims, has announced he will not seek reelection to his seat in 2018. Kihuen, who former Sen. Harry Reid once called "a rising star in Nevada and the Democratic Party", unseated Republican Cresent Hardy in 2016 to become Nevada's first Latino congressman.
Nevada's 4th congressional district encompasses North Las Vegas and a large portion of rural central Nevada. The district was created after the 2010 Census, as the state added a congressional district due to rapid population growth. As recently as 1980, there was one at-large representative for the entire state. Kihuen is the 3rd person to represent the district, each of whom will have served only one term.
The 2018 Senate Interactive Map has been updated to reflect the 34 seats to be contested on November 6, 2018. This includes a special election in Minnesota, where Gov. Mark Dayton has appointed Lt. Gov. Tina Smith to take over when Sen. Al Franken departs. The recently completed Alabama special election has been removed. (These two special election seats will again be contested in 2020, while the 33 remaining 2018 elections are for six-year terms through 2024).
Once Alabama Democrat Doug Jones is seated, the Senate will consist of 51 Republicans, 49 Democrats*. That means Democrats will need to gain two seats in 2018 to take control in 2019, as Vice-President Pence will break any ties in a 50-50 Senate in favor of the Republicans. The win in Alabama gives them an opening to accomplish that, but it is still an uphill climb due to the particular seats up in this cycle.
The following maps are all interactive, and all are based on the Senate after Mr. Jones is sworn-in. Click on any of them to create and share your own 2018 Senate forecast
Minnesota governor Mark Dayton will announce his choice for his state's next U.S. Senator Wednesday morning at 10AM (11AM ET). The appointment will take over after Al Franken leaves the Senate, although the incumbent Senator still hasn't said when he plans to actually resign. It seems a bit odd to name a replacement before the actual resignation, but here we are.
Here's a list of five people the governor may choose, from Minnesota Public Radio.
The appointment is temporary; there will be an election next November to fill what will then be the final two years of Franken's term. As a result, both Minnesota Senate seats will be contested in 2018.
Two new polls paint completely different pictures of tomorrow's Senate special election in Alabama. Fox News gives Democrat Doug Jones has a 10 point lead over Republican Roy Moore. The last poll showing Jones with this kind of lead was the last Fox News poll in mid November, which showed him up by 8 points.
Most other recent polls have shown Moore in the lead. This morning's survey from Emerson College, gives Moore a 9 point margin, significantly higher than the 3 point margin they gave him about 10 days ago. Moore's 53% share of the vote is also a high-water mark for him among recent polling.