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2018 House Elections: Consensus Forecast

Final Consensus Map: November 5, 2018
A consensus outlook for the 2018 House elections based on the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections. For purposes of this map, only congressional districts rated safe by all three of these forecasters are shown in the darkest shade.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2018 House forecast.

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Map Updated: Nov. 6, 2018 at 00:08 UTC (Nov. 5, 7:08 PM EST)

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Tossup
         
       
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Election Results Details >>

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House Elections 2018

Current 197 236 0 2*
Pro 210 197 0 28
Forecast

Pro: 2018 Consensus Forecast
Forecast: Totals on interactive map
* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Pro Map House(a) President(b)
AK-AL Don Young
1973 24th
14.3% 15.2%
AR-2 French Hill
2015 3rd
21.5% 10.7%
AZ-1 Tom O'Halleran
2017 2nd
7.3% 1.1%
AZ-2 Martha McSally
2015 3rd
13.9% 4.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
AZ-6 David Schweikert
2011 5th
24.3% 10.0%
AZ-8 Debbie Lesko
2018 2nd
37.1% 21.1%
CA-1 Doug LaMalfa
2013 4th
18.1% 19.7%
CA-4 Tom McClintock
2009 6th
25.4% 14.7%
CA-7 Ami Bera
2013 4th
2.3% 11.4%
CA-10 Jeff Denham
2011 5th
3.4% 3.0%
CA-16 Jim Costa
2013 4th
16.1% 21.6%
CA-21 David Valadao
2013 4th
13.5% 15.5%
CA-22 Devin Nunes
2003 9th
35.1% 9.5%
CA-24 Salud Carbajal
2017 2nd
6.8% 20.2%
CA-25 Steve Knight
2015 3rd
6.3% 6.7%
CA-39 Edward Royce
1993 14th
14.5% 8.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
CA-45 Mimi Walters
2015 3rd
17.1% 5.4%
CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher
1989 16th
16.6% 1.7%
CA-49 Darrell Issa
2001 10th
0.5% 7.5%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
CA-50 Duncan Hunter
2009 6th
26.9% 15.0%
CO-3 Scott Tipton
2011 5th
14.3% 12.0%
CO-6 Mike Coffman
2009 6th
8.3% 8.9%
FL-6 OPEN
17.1% 17.0%
FL-7 Stephanie Murphy
2017 2nd
3.0% 7.3%
FL-15 Dennis Ross
2011 5th
14.9% 10.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
FL-16 Vern Buchanan
2007 7th
19.5% 10.7%
FL-18 Brian Mast
2017 2nd
10.5% 9.2%
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart
2003 9th
24.7% 1.8%
FL-26 Carlos Curbelo
2015 3rd
11.8% 16.3%
FL-27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
1989 16th
9.8% 19.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
GA-6 Karen Handel
2017 2nd
23.4% 1.5%
GA-7 Rob Woodall
2011 5th
20.8% 6.3%
IA-1 Rod Blum
2015 3rd
7.7% 3.5%
IA-3 David Young
2015 3rd
13.7% 3.5%
IA-4 Steve King
2003 9th
22.6% 27.4%
IL-6 Peter Roskam
2007 7th
18.4% 7.0%
IL-12 Mike Bost
2015 3rd
14.6% 14.8%
IL-13 Rodney Davis
2013 4th
19.3% 5.5%
IL-14 Randy Hultgren
2011 5th
18.6% 3.9%
IN-2 Jackie Walorski
2013 4th
22.3% 23.2%
IN-9 Trey Hollingsworth
2017 2nd
13.7% 26.9%
KS-2 Lynn Jenkins
2009 6th
28.4% 18.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
KS-3 Kevin Yoder
2011 5th
10.7% 1.2%
KY-6 Andy Barr
2013 4th
22.2% 15.3%
ME-2 Bruce Poliquin
2015 3rd
9.6% 10.3%
MI-1 Jack Bergman
2017 2nd
14.8% 21.3%
MI-2 Bill Huizenga
2011 5th
30.1% 17.6%
MI-3 Justin Amash
2011 5th
21.9% 9.4%
MI-6 Fred Upton
1987 17th
22.2% 8.4%
MI-7 Tim Walberg
2011 5th
15.0% 17.0%
MI-8 Mike Bishop
2015 3rd
16.9% 6.7%
MI-11 Dave Trott
2015 3rd
12.8% 4.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
MN-1 Timothy Walz
2007 7th
0.8% 14.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
MN-2 Jason Lewis
2017 2nd
1.8% 1.2%
MN-3 Erik Paulsen
2009 6th
13.7% 9.4%
MN-7 Collin Peterson
1991 15th
5.0% 30.8%
MN-8 Rick Nolan
2013 4th
0.6% 15.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
MO-2 Ann Wagner
2013 4th
20.9% 10.3%
MT-AL Greg Gianforte
2017 2nd
15.6% 20.6%
NC-2 George Holding
2013 4th
13.4% 9.6%
NC-8 Richard Hudson
2013 4th
17.5% 15.0%
NC-9 Robert Pittenger
2013 4th
16.4% 11.6%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2018 election.
NC-13 Ted Budd
2017 2nd
12.2% 9.4%
NE-2 Don Bacon
2017 2nd
1.2% 2.2%
NH-1 Carol-Shea Porter
2017 2nd
1.3% 1.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NJ-2 Frank LoBiondo
1995 13th
22.0% 4.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NJ-3 Tom MacArthur
2015 3rd
20.4% 6.2%
NJ-5 Josh Gottheimer
2017 2nd
4.4% 1.0%
NJ-7 Leonard Lance
2009 6th
11.0% 1.1%
NJ-11 Rodney Frelinghuysen
1995 13th
19.1% 0.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NM-2 Steve Pearce
2011 5th
25.5% 10.2%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NV-3 Jacky Rosen
2017 2nd
1.3% 1.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NV-4 Ruben Kihuen
2017 2nd
4.0% 4.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NY-1 Lee Zeldin
2015 3rd
17.9% 12.3%
NY-2 Peter King
1993 14th
24.9% 9.1%
NY-11 Daniel Donovan
2015 3rd
24.9% 9.8%
NY-18 Sean P. Maloney
2013 4th
11.2% 1.9%
NY-19 John Faso
2017 2nd
8.6% 6.8%
NY-21 Elise Stefanik
2015 3rd
35.1% 13.9%
NY-22 Claudia Tenney
2017 2nd
5.5% 15.5%
NY-23 Tom Reed
2010 6th
15.2% 14.8%
NY-24 John Katko
2015 3rd
21.1% 3.6%
NY-27 Chris Collins
2013 4th
34.4% 24.5%
OH-1 Steve Chabot
2011 5th
18.4% 6.6%
OH-7 Bob Gibbs
2011 5th
35.1% 29.7%
OH-10 Michael Turner
2003 9th
31.4% 7.3%
OH-12 Troy Balderson
2018 2nd
36.7% 11.3%
OH-14 David Joyce
2013 4th
25.2% 11.5%
OH-15 Steve Stivers
2011 5th
32.3% 15.4%
OK-5 Steve Russell
2015 3rd
20.3% 13.4%
PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick
2017 2nd
N/A 2.0%
PA-5 Mary Gay Scanlon
2018 2nd
N/A 28.2%
PA-6 Ryan Costello
2015 3rd
N/A 9.3%
PA-7 Susan Wild
2018 2nd
N/A 1.1%
PA-8 Matthew Cartwright
2013 4th
N/A 9.5%
PA-10 Scott Perry
2013 4th
N/A 8.9%
PA-14 Conor Lamb
2018 2nd
N/A 29.0%
PA-16 Mike Kelly
2011 5th
N/A 19.9%
PA-17 Keith Rothfus
2013 4th
N/A 2.5%
SC-1 Mark Sanford
2013 4th
21.7% 13.1%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2018 election.
TX-2 Ted Poe
2005 8th
24.6% 9.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
TX-6 Joe Barton
1985 18th
19.3% 12.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
TX-7 John Culberson
2001 10th
12.3% 1.4%
TX-10 Michael McCaul
2005 8th
18.9% 9.0%
TX-21 Lamar Smith
1987 17th
20.6% 10.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
TX-22 Pete Olson
2009 6th
19.0% 7.9%
TX-23 Will Hurd
2015 3rd
1.3% 3.4%
TX-24 Kenny Marchant
2005 8th
16.9% 6.2%
TX-31 John Carter
2003 9th
21.9% 12.7%
TX-32 Pete Sessions
1997 12th
52.1% 1.9%
UT-4 Mia Love
2015 3rd
12.5% 6.7%
VA-2 Scott Taylor
2017 2nd
22.9% 3.4%
VA-5 Tom Garrett
2017 2nd
16.7% 11.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
VA-7 Dave Brat
2014 4th
15.3% 6.5%
VA-10 Barbara Comstock
2015 3rd
5.8% 10.0%
WA-3 Jaime Herrera Beutler
2011 5th
23.5% 7.4%
WA-5 Cathy McMorris Rodgers
2005 8th
19.3% 13.1%
WA-8 Dave Reichert
2005 8th
20.4% 3.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
WI-1 Paul Ryan
1999 11th
34.8% 10.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
WI-6 Glenn Grothman
2015 3rd
19.9% 16.9%
WV-2 Alex Mooney
2015 3rd
16.4% 36.4%
WV-3 OPEN
43.9% 49.2%
AL-1 Bradley Byrne
2014 4th
* 29.4%
AL-2 Martha Roby
2011 5th
8.2% 31.9%
AL-3 Mike Rogers
2003 9th
34.0% 33.0%
AL-4 Robert Aderholt
1997 12th
* 63.0%
AL-5 Mo Brooks
2011 5th
33.5% 33.4%
AL-6 Gary Palmer
2015 3rd
49.1% 44.7%
AL-7 Terri Sewell
2011 5th
* 41.2%
AR-1 Rick Crawford
2011 5th
52.6% 34.8%
AR-3 Steve Womack
2011 5th
54.6% 31.4%
AR-4 Bruce Westerman
2015 3rd
49.8% 32.9%
AZ-3 Raul Grijalva
2003 9th
* 29.9%
AZ-4 Paul Gosar
2011 5th
42.9% 40.2%
AZ-5 Andy Biggs
2017 2nd
28.2% 21.1%
AZ-7 Ruben Gallego
2015 3rd
50.5% 49.2%
AZ-9 Kyrsten Sinema
2013 4th
21.9% 16.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
CA-2 Jared Huffman
2013 4th
53.7% 45.7%
CA-3 John Garamendi
2009 6th
18.7% 12.6%
CA-5 Mike Thompson
1999 11th
53.7% 44.9%
CA-6 Doris Matsui
2005 8th
50.9% 44.8%
CA-8 Paul Cook
2013 4th
24.5% 15.1%
CA-9 Jerry McNerney
2007 7th
14.7% 18.6%
CA-11 Mark DeSaulnier
2015 3rd
44.1% 48.8%
CA-12 Nancy Pelosi
1987 17th
61.7% 77.5%
CA-13 Barbara Lee
1998 12th
81.6% 80.6%
CA-14 Jackie Speier
2008 7th
61.7% 58.7%
CA-15 Eric Swalwell
2013 4th
47.5% 45.7%
CA-17 Ro Khanna
2017 2nd
22.0% ^ 53.4%
CA-18 Anna Eshoo
1993 14th
42.3% 53.2%
CA-19 Zoe Lofgren
1995 13th
47.9% 51.4%
CA-20 Jimmy Panetta
2017 2nd
41.5% 47.2%
CA-23 Kevin McCarthy
2007 7th
38.4% 22.0%
CA-26 Julia Brownley
2013 4th
20.8% 21.9%
CA-27 Judy Chu
2009 6th
34.8% 37.6%
CA-28 Adam Schiff
2001 10th
56.0% 49.8%
CA-29 Tony Cardenas
2013 4th
49.5% ^ 60.9%
CA-30 Brad Sherman
1997 12th
45.3% 43.4%
CA-31 Pete Aguilar
2015 3rd
12.1% 21.1%
CA-32 Grace Napolitano
1999 11th
23.1% ^ 38.9%
CA-33 Ted Lieu
2015 3rd
32.9% 41.3%
CA-34 Jimmy Gomez
2017 2nd
54.4% 72.9%
CA-35 Norma Torres
2015 3rd
44.8% 40.8%
CA-36 Raul Ruiz
2013 4th
24.1% 8.8%
CA-37 Karen Bass
2011 5th
62.3% ^ 76.1%
CA-38 Linda Sanchez
2003 9th
41.0% 39.6%
CA-40 Lucille Roybal-Allard
1993 14th
62.3% 69.4%
CA-41 Mark Takano