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UPCOMING

2018 House Elections: Consensus Forecast

Final Consensus Map: November 5, 2018
A consensus outlook for the 2018 House elections based on the current ratings of Sabato's Crystal Ball, The Cook Political Report, and Inside Elections. For purposes of this map, only congressional districts rated safe by all three of these forecasters are shown in the darkest shade.

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2018 House forecast.

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House Elections 2018
Current 197 236 0 2*
Pro 210 197 0 28
Forecast

Pro: 2018 Consensus Forecast
Forecast: Totals on interactive map
* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Pro Map House(a) President(b)
AK-AL Don Young
1973 23rd
14.3% 15.2%
AR-2 French Hill
2015 2nd
21.5% 10.7%
AZ-1 Tom O'Halleran
2017 1st
7.3% 1.1%
AZ-2 Martha McSally
2015 2nd
13.9% 4.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
AZ-6 David Schweikert
2011 4th
24.3% 10.0%
AZ-8 Debbie Lesko
2018 1st
37.1% 21.1%
CA-1 Doug LaMalfa
2013 3rd
18.1% 19.7%
CA-4 Tom McClintock
2009 5th
25.4% 14.7%
CA-7 Ami Bera
2013 3rd
2.3% 11.4%
CA-10 Jeff Denham
2011 4th
3.4% 3.0%
CA-16 Jim Costa
2013 3rd
16.1% 21.6%
CA-21 David Valadao
2013 3rd
13.5% 15.5%
CA-22 Devin Nunes
2003 8th
35.1% 9.5%
CA-24 Salud Carbajal
2017 1st
6.8% 20.2%
CA-25 Steve Knight
2015 2nd
6.3% 6.7%
CA-39 Edward Royce
1993 13th
14.5% 8.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
CA-45 Mimi Walters
2015 2nd
17.1% 5.4%
CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher
1989 15th
16.6% 1.7%
CA-49 Darrell Issa
2001 9th
0.5% 7.5%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
CA-50 Duncan Hunter
2009 5th
26.9% 15.0%
CO-3 Scott Tipton
2011 4th
14.3% 12.0%
CO-6 Mike Coffman
2009 5th
8.3% 8.9%
FL-6 OPEN
17.1% 17.0%
FL-7 Stephanie Murphy
2017 1st
3.0% 7.3%
FL-15 Dennis Ross
2011 4th
14.9% 10.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
FL-16 Vern Buchanan
2007 6th
19.5% 10.7%
FL-18 Brian Mast
2017 1st
10.5% 9.2%
FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart
2003 8th
24.7% 1.8%
FL-26 Carlos Curbelo
2015 2nd
11.8% 16.3%
FL-27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
1989 15th
9.8% 19.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
GA-6 Karen Handel
2017 1st
23.4% 1.5%
GA-7 Rob Woodall
2011 4th
20.8% 6.3%
IA-1 Rod Blum
2015 2nd
7.7% 3.5%
IA-3 David Young
2015 2nd
13.7% 3.5%
IA-4 Steve King
2003 8th
22.6% 27.4%
IL-6 Peter Roskam
2007 6th
18.4% 7.0%
IL-12 Mike Bost
2015 2nd
14.6% 14.8%
IL-13 Rodney Davis
2013 3rd
19.3% 5.5%
IL-14 Randy Hultgren
2011 4th
18.6% 3.9%
IN-2 Jackie Walorski
2013 3rd
22.3% 23.2%
IN-9 Trey Hollingsworth
2017 1st
13.7% 26.9%
KS-2 Lynn Jenkins
2009 5th
28.4% 18.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
KS-3 Kevin Yoder
2011 4th
10.7% 1.2%
KY-6 Andy Barr
2013 3rd
22.2% 15.3%
ME-2 Bruce Poliquin
2015 2nd
9.6% 10.3%
MI-1 Jack Bergman
2017 1st
14.8% 21.3%
MI-2 Bill Huizenga
2011 4th
30.1% 17.6%
MI-3 Justin Amash
2011 4th
21.9% 9.4%
MI-6 Fred Upton
1987 16th
22.2% 8.4%
MI-7 Tim Walberg
2011 4th
15.0% 17.0%
MI-8 Mike Bishop
2015 2nd
16.9% 6.7%
MI-11 Dave Trott
2015 2nd
12.8% 4.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
MN-1 Timothy Walz
2007 6th
0.8% 14.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
MN-2 Jason Lewis
2017 1st
1.8% 1.2%
MN-3 Erik Paulsen
2009 5th
13.7% 9.4%
MN-7 Collin Peterson
1991 14th
5.0% 30.8%
MN-8 Rick Nolan
2013 3rd
0.6% 15.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
MO-2 Ann Wagner
2013 3rd
20.9% 10.3%
MT-AL Greg Gianforte
2017 1st
15.6% 20.6%
NC-2 George Holding
2013 3rd
13.4% 9.6%
NC-8 Richard Hudson
2013 3rd
17.5% 15.0%
NC-9 Robert Pittenger
2013 3rd
16.4% 11.6%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2018 election.
NC-13 Ted Budd
2017 1st
12.2% 9.4%
NE-2 Don Bacon
2017 1st
1.2% 2.2%
NH-1 Carol-Shea Porter
2017 1st
1.3% 1.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NJ-2 Frank LoBiondo
1995 12th
22.0% 4.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NJ-3 Tom MacArthur
2015 2nd
20.4% 6.2%
NJ-5 Josh Gottheimer
2017 1st
4.4% 1.0%
NJ-7 Leonard Lance
2009 5th
11.0% 1.1%
NJ-11 Rodney Frelinghuysen
1995 12th
19.1% 0.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NM-2 Steve Pearce
2011 4th
25.5% 10.2%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NV-3 Jacky Rosen
2017 1st
1.3% 1.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NV-4 Ruben Kihuen
2017 1st
4.0% 4.9%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NY-1 Lee Zeldin
2015 2nd
17.9% 12.3%
NY-2 Peter King
1993 13th
24.9% 9.1%
NY-11 Daniel Donovan
2015 2nd
24.9% 9.8%
NY-18 Sean P. Maloney
2013 3rd
11.2% 1.9%
NY-19 John Faso
2017 1st
8.6% 6.8%
NY-21 Elise Stefanik
2015 2nd
35.1% 13.9%
NY-22 Claudia Tenney
2017 1st
5.5% 15.5%
NY-23 Tom Reed
2010 5th
15.2% 14.8%
NY-24 John Katko
2015 2nd
21.1% 3.6%
NY-27 Chris Collins
2013 3rd
34.4% 24.5%
OH-1 Steve Chabot
2011 4th
18.4% 6.6%
OH-7 Bob Gibbs
2011 4th
35.1% 29.7%
OH-10 Michael Turner
2003 8th
31.4% 7.3%
OH-12 Troy Balderson
2018 1st
36.7% 11.3%
OH-14 David Joyce
2013 3rd
25.2% 11.5%
OH-15 Steve Stivers
2011 4th
32.3% 15.4%
OK-5 Steve Russell
2015 2nd
20.3% 13.4%
PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick
2017 1st
N/A 2.0%
Redrawn PA-1 is mostly current PA-8 (Fitzpatrick)
PA-5 Mary Gay Scanlon
2018 1st
N/A 28.2%
Redrawn PA-5 is about 50% current PA-7, vacated by Meehan. Scanlon won special election in PA-7
PA-6 Ryan Costello
2015 2nd
N/A 9.3%
Redrawn PA-6 is about 50% current PA-6 (Costello, retiring)
PA-7 Susan Wild
2018 1st
N/A 1.1%
Redrawn PA-7 is mostly current PA-15 vacated by Dent. Wild won special election in PA-15
PA-8 Matthew Cartwright
2013 3rd
N/A 9.5%
Redrawn PA-8 is about 50% current PA-17 (Cartwright)
PA-10 Scott Perry
2013 3rd
N/A 8.9%
Redrawn PA-10 is about 60% current PA-4 (Perry), 30% current PA-11 (Barletta, running for Senate)
PA-14 Conor Lamb
2018 1st
N/A 29.0%
Redrawn PA-14 is majority current PA-18. Lamb running for re-election in PA-17
PA-16 Mike Kelly
2011 4th
N/A 19.9%
Redrawn PA-16 is mostly current PA-3 (Kelly)
PA-17 Keith Rothfus
2013 3rd
N/A 2.5%
Redrawn PA-17 is majority current PA-12 (Rothfus); Conor Lamb (current PA-18) running vs. Rothfus
SC-1 Mark Sanford
2013 3rd
21.7% 13.1%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2018 election.
TX-2 Ted Poe
2005 7th
24.6% 9.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
TX-6 Joe Barton
1985 17th
19.3% 12.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
TX-7 John Culberson
2001 9th
12.3% 1.4%
TX-10 Michael McCaul
2005 7th
18.9% 9.0%
TX-21 Lamar Smith
1987 16th
20.6% 10.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
TX-22 Pete Olson
2009 5th
19.0% 7.9%
TX-23 Will Hurd
2015 2nd
1.3% 3.4%
TX-24 Kenny Marchant
2005 7th
16.9% 6.2%
TX-31 John Carter
2003 8th
21.9% 12.7%
TX-32 Pete Sessions
1997 11th
52.1% 1.9%
UT-4 Mia Love
2015 2nd
12.5% 6.7%
VA-2 Scott Taylor
2017 1st
22.9% 3.4%
VA-5 Tom Garrett
2017 1st
16.7% 11.1%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
VA-7 Dave Brat
2014 3rd
15.3% 6.5%
VA-10 Barbara Comstock
2015 2nd
5.8% 10.0%
WA-3 Jaime Herrera Beutler
2011 4th
23.5% 7.4%
WA-5 Cathy McMorris Rodgers
2005 7th
19.3% 13.1%
WA-8 Dave Reichert
2005 7th
20.4% 3.0%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
WI-1 Paul Ryan
1999 10th
34.8% 10.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
WI-6 Glenn Grothman
2015 2nd
19.9% 16.9%
WV-2 Alex Mooney
2015 2nd
16.4% 36.4%
WV-3 OPEN
43.9% 49.2%
AL-1 Bradley Byrne
2014 3rd
* 29.4%
AL-2 Martha Roby
2011 4th
8.2% 31.9%
AL-3 Mike Rogers
2003 8th
34.0% 33.0%
AL-4 Robert Aderholt
1997 11th
* 63.0%
AL-5 Mo Brooks
2011 4th
33.5% 33.4%
AL-6 Gary Palmer
2015 2nd
49.1% 44.7%
AL-7 Terri Sewell
2011 4th
* 41.2%
AR-1 Rick Crawford
2011 4th
52.6% 34.8%
AR-3 Steve Womack
2011 4th
54.6% 31.4%
AR-4 Bruce Westerman
2015 2nd
49.8% 32.9%
AZ-3 Raul Grijalva
2003 8th
* 29.9%
AZ-4 Paul Gosar
2011 4th
42.9% 40.2%
AZ-5 Andy Biggs
2017 1st
28.2% 21.1%
AZ-7 Ruben Gallego
2015 2nd
50.5% 49.2%
AZ-9 Kyrsten Sinema
2013 3rd
21.9% 16.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
CA-2 Jared Huffman
2013 3rd
53.7% 45.7%
CA-3 John Garamendi
2009 5th
18.7% 12.6%
CA-5 Mike Thompson
1999 10th
53.7% 44.9%
CA-6 Doris Matsui
2005 7th
50.9% 44.8%
CA-8 Paul Cook
2013 3rd
24.5% 15.1%
CA-9 Jerry McNerney
2007 6th
14.7% 18.6%
CA-11 Mark DeSaulnier
2015 2nd
44.1% 48.8%
CA-12 Nancy Pelosi
1987 16th
61.7% 77.5%
CA-13 Barbara Lee
1998 11th
81.6% 80.6%
CA-14 Jackie Speier
2008 6th
61.7% 58.7%
CA-15 Eric Swalwell
2013 3rd
47.5% 45.7%
CA-17 Ro Khanna
2017 1st
22.0% ^ 53.4%
CA-18 Anna Eshoo
1993 13th
42.3% 53.2%
CA-19 Zoe Lofgren
1995 12th
47.9% 51.4%
CA-20 Jimmy Panetta
2017 1st
41.5% 47.2%
CA-23 Kevin McCarthy
2007 6th
38.4% 22.0%
CA-26 Julia Brownley
2013 3rd
20.8% 21.9%