2018 House Election Simulation

Who will control the House?

Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated House of Representatives 2018 midterm election. You can choose to have the map populate randomly or by congressional district poll closing times. Seats changing parties in the simulation will be displayed in a table below the map.

The simulator is primarily derived from the data-driven 2018 U.S. House Midterms Election Forecast from The Crosstab by G. Elliott Morris. However, it also takes into consideration the consensus projection of a number of long-time qualitative forecasters.

There are a wide range of possible outcomes for this year’s election. As a result, any simulation is plausible based on current forecasts, but no individual result is particularly likely to happen. The party winning 218 or more seats in the actual midterm election will control the U.S. House when the 116th Congress begins in January.

Simulation Order:
Simulation Order:
Poll Closing Times

Summary of Most Recent 5,000 Simulations

218 Needed for Control
Control Average Midpoint 80% Range*
Democrats 76.4% 231 229 210-256
Republicans 23.6% 204 206 179-225
Change^ +36 +34
* 80% probability the seats won by each party is within this range
^ Based on the current 240-195 House (vacancies assigned to previous incumbent's party)
Reload the page to update this table

Seats Changing Parties

In Your Most Recent Simulation

District Incumbent Party Consensus Sim Result

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