*** The 2021-22 Governor Election Interactive Map is now available. ***

FiveThirtyEight Governor Forecast

Final Ratings: November 6, 2018
This is a governor forecast map derived from the probabilities associated with the FiveThirtyEight Governor Forecast (Classic Version).

The toss-up tan color is used when neither party has a 60% or higher chance of winning. Color gradients are used to show higher Democratic and Republican probabilities, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). The map reflects the model output as of the timestamp below it.

Use this map to create and share your own forecast for this year's 36 races for governor.
Democrats
Republicans
no 2018 election
no 2018 election
MA
RI
CT
MD

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up
         
       

Election Results Details >>

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Governor Elections
Current 16 33 1
Pro 18 22 0 10
Forecast

Pro: 2018 Consensus Forecast
Forecast: Totals on interactive map

Upcoming Elections

2018 2019 2020
9 1 2
26 4 7
1 0 0
State Incumbent Party Since Term Pro Rating
AK Bill Walker
2014 1st
AZ Doug Ducey
2015 1st
CO John Hickenlooper
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
CT Dannel Malloy
2011 2nd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
FL Rick Scott
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
GA Nathan Deal
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
IA Kim Reynolds
2017 1st
IL Bruce Rauner
2015 1st
KS Jeff Colyer
2018 1st
Incumbent defeated in Republican primary for 2018 election.
MD Larry Hogan
2015 1st
ME Paul LePage
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
MI Rick Snyder
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
MN Mark Dayton
2011 2nd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NH Chris Sununu
2017 1st
NM Susana Martinez
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
NV Brian Sandoval
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
OH John Kasich
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
OK Mary Fallin
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
OR Kate Brown
2015 1st
PA Tom Wolf
2015 1st
RI Gina Raimondo
2015 1st
SC Henry McMaster
2017 1st
SD Dennis Daugaard
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
TN Bill Haslam
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
WI Scott Walker
2011 2nd
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AL Kay Ivey
2017 1st
AR Asa Hutchinson
2015 1st
CA Jerry Brown
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
DE John Carney
2017 1st
HI David Ige
2014 1st
ID Butch Otter
2007 3rd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
IN Eric Holcomb
2017 1st
KY Matt Bevin
2015 1st
LA John Bel Edwards
2016 1st
MA Charlie Baker
2015 1st
MO Mike Parson
2018 1st
MS Phil Bryant
2012 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2019 due to term limits.
MT Steve Bullock
2013 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2020 due to term limits.
NC Roy Cooper
2017 1st
ND Doug Burgum
2016 1st
NE Pete Ricketts
2015 1st
NJ Phil Murphy
2018 1st
NY Andrew Cuomo
2011 2nd
TX Greg Abbott
2015 1st
UT Gary Herbert
2009 3rd
VA Ralph Northam
2018 1st
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2021 due to term limits.
VT Phil Scott
2017 1st
WA Jay Inslee
2013 2nd
WV Jim Justice
2017 1st
WY Matt Mead
2011 2nd
Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.