2018 Senate Elections: Polling Averages and Forecast Ratings

Just a little over a week before the midterms, here's an overview of where each of this year's 35 Senate elections stands. For each race, we display the polling average (choose a state), a consensus forecaster rating and the FiveThirtyEight probability from their Classic model.  All information is as of late morning on Sunday, October 28th.

A few notes:

  • All the 'safe' seats seem supported by the polling averages and the FiveThirtyEight probability. 
  • New Mexico polling percentages impacted by Libertarian Gary Johnson, who polled at 22% in a recent survey
  • The last couple polls in 'likely Democratic' Michigan have been somewhat closer than the polling average and ratings would indicate. May just be a blip, but will be interesting to see if that trend persists in any subsequent polling
  • The other 'likely Democratic' seats with regularly scheduled elections this year (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) seem more 'safe' than not for the Democratic incumbents as Election Day nears.
  • The Cook Political Report reclassified New Jersey as a 'toss-up' this past week. The other qualitative forecasters have it as likely Democratic' and FiveThirtyEight gives Sen. Menendez a 91% chance of being re-elected. 
  • The biggest discrepancy between polling and the 'pros' seems to be in North Dakota where Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is trailing by double-digits in recent polls.
  • Indiana is tied based on the five polls out this month. However, the most recent two polls, including one out today, give Republican challenger Mike Braun a small lead. 
comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Hawaii Primary

Open Seats for Governor and Congressional District 2; Democratic nominees will be heavy favorites in November

Republican Brad Finstad Sworn In to the U.S. House; Democrats Hold 220-211 Edge in Seats

Finstad won a special election earlier this week to fill a vacancy in Minnesota's First District

Live Results: Special Election in MN-01; Primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin

Several compelling storylines; the most competitive primary appears to be for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Wisconsin.

Overview and Live Results: Tennessee Primary

Of particular interest is the GOP primary in U.S. House District 5, a Democratic-held seat made much more GOP-friendly in redistricting.

Overview and Live Results: Primaries in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington

There are a number of competitive primaries, as well as several where the nominee chosen may impact the competitiveness of the general election