October 28, 2018
Just a little over a week before the midterms, here's an overview of where each of this year's 35 Senate elections stands. For each race, we display the polling average (choose a state), a consensus forecaster rating and the FiveThirtyEight probability from their Classic model. All information is as of late morning on Sunday, October 28th.
A few notes:
- All the 'safe' seats seem supported by the polling averages and the FiveThirtyEight probability.
- New Mexico polling percentages impacted by Libertarian Gary Johnson, who polled at 22% in a recent survey
- The last couple polls in 'likely Democratic' Michigan have been somewhat closer than the polling average and ratings would indicate. May just be a blip, but will be interesting to see if that trend persists in any subsequent polling
- The other 'likely Democratic' seats with regularly scheduled elections this year (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) seem more 'safe' than not for the Democratic incumbents as Election Day nears.
- The Cook Political Report reclassified New Jersey as a 'toss-up' this past week. The other qualitative forecasters have it as likely Democratic' and FiveThirtyEight gives Sen. Menendez a 91% chance of being re-elected.
- The biggest discrepancy between polling and the 'pros' seems to be in North Dakota where Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is trailing by double-digits in recent polls.
- Indiana is tied based on the five polls out this month. However, the most recent two polls, including one out today, give Republican challenger Mike Braun a small lead.