Try the 2018 House Midterm Election Simulator

September 22, 2018

The 270toWin House Election Simulator is now live. Give it a try!  You can have the map populate randomly or by congressional district poll closing times*. 

The simulator is primarily derived from the data-driven 2018 U.S. House Midterms Election Forecast from The Crosstab by G. Elliott Morris. However, it also takes into consideration the consensus projection of a number of long-time expert forecasters. This has the effect of limiting extremely unlikely outcomes, as there is an extra hurdle districts considered 'safe' by all the experts must overcome before they will change parties in a given simulation. However, the net effect of this 'governor' across many thousands of simulations is relatively small.

We're hoping to add a feature in the days ahead that will list all the district flipped when a simulation is run. 

* The simulation occurs before the map is populated, so this choice doesn't affect the outcome