Try the 2018 House Midterm Election Simulator

The 270toWin House Election Simulator is now live. Give it a try!  You can have the map populate randomly or by congressional district poll closing times*. 

The simulator is primarily derived from the data-driven 2018 U.S. House Midterms Election Forecast from The Crosstab by G. Elliott Morris. However, it also takes into consideration the consensus projection of a number of long-time expert forecasters. This has the effect of limiting extremely unlikely outcomes, as there is an extra hurdle districts considered 'safe' by all the experts must overcome before they will change parties in a given simulation. However, the net effect of this 'governor' across many thousands of simulations is relatively small.

We're hoping to add a feature in the days ahead that will list all the district flipped when a simulation is run. 

* The simulation occurs before the map is populated, so this choice doesn't affect the outcome

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Illinois and Ohio Primaries

The marquee race is the Republican primary for Senate in Ohio. The winner will face Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is seeking his 4th term.

Northern Mariana Islands Republican Caucus

The territory holds the first GOP contest since Donald Trump clinched the nomination

Biden and Trump Poised to Clinch Party Nominations: Live Results for March 12 Primaries

The cancellation of Florida's Democratic primary puts Biden on track to reach the delegate threshold a week earlier than expected

Live Results: American Samoa Republican Caucus

The South Pacific territory holds the first GOP contest since Nikki Haley ended her campaign.

Overview and Live Results: Hawaii Democratic Caucus

One day after Super Tuesday, Democrats in the 50th state will make their presidential preference known.