October 18, 2018
FiveThirtyEight is out with a model forecasting this year's 36 gubernatorial elections. We've created an interactive map of their projections, which we'll be updating periodically until the November 6th elections.
Click or tap the map below to create your own projection.
Heading into the elections, Republicans hold 33 of the 50 governorships, near an all-time high. 16 are held by Democrats, with an independent in Alaska. As with other forecasters, the FiveThirtyEight model sees a drop in seats held by the GOP. Their model stands out a bit in the small number of toss-up races - three as of this writing vs. eight on the consensus map.
While there's no overall "battle for control" with gubernatorial races, many of the governors elected this year will have an important role in determining the composition of the U.S. House in the next decade. These governors will still be in office when redistricting comes around after the 2020 Census.
Related: FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast | FiveThirtyEight House Forecast