Election News

Is this new poll another outlier, or a start of a shift? Only time will tell. Carson has taken a more definitive lead in recent Iowa polls, but is not making much headway against Trump in New Hampshire polling. We may be seeing a voter split between states, depending on the composition of the population. Iowa has a much larger percentage of evangelical voters. Given that, it is worth pointing out, as we have done before, that while the national polls are interesting, they are irrelevant in that the choice of a nominee will emerge from individual state primary and caucus events. Iowa and New Hampshire kick off the 2016 election calendar next February. 

Returning to the CBS/NYT poll, no other candidate saw over 10% support, with Rubio, Bush and Fiorina filling out the top 5 at 7-8%. Interestingly, Ted Cruz received only 4% support in the poll; he's usually a few points higher. Given their appeal to many of the same voters, it is possible that at least some of Carson's gain could be coming at the Texas Senator's expense.

Ten of the fifteen remaining Republicans will participate; listed in order of the latest 270toWin Polling Average:  Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, Paul, Christie, Kasich.

An earlier forum will include Graham, Jindal, Pataki and Santorum, all polling under 1%. Gilmore was not invited.

* Just kidding on the conservative part; Boulder is one of the more liberal places in the country. Obama defeated Romney in Boulder County by 70-28% in 2012 vs. 51-46% statewide). 

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Separately, it was announced today that CBS and Twitter will team up for the second Democratic debate, to be held November 14th in Des Moines, Iowa. CBS will telecast the debate, hosted in conjunction with the Des Moines Register. Twitter will provide CBS will real-time data and insights during the debate, as well as questions from voters. This is the first debate where Twitter will have an official presence. 

This is the third departure from the Democratic 2016 race this week. Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb also withdrew, noting he could return as an independent candidate. Vice President Joe Biden opted not to run.  

This leaves 4 declared candidates:

• Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 
• Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders
• Former Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley
• Harvard Law professor Larry Lessig

Clinton is well ahead nationally, averaging close to 50% in recent polls. After a drop-off, she has seen her lead increase again over Sanders, who is averaging about 25%. These numbers include the influence of Biden, so they will likely increase for both candidates in the weeks ahead. Both O'Malley and Lessig are polling at less than 1%.

The table below shows the results:

 The short answer is that Clinton picks up much of Biden's voters. Her lead over Sanders moves up 5%, from 21 to 26 points. 

Of course, there's a difference between asking people who they would support if Biden wasn't running and actually having to make a choice now that he isn't. We'll need to wait and see if polls taken after today's announcement show the same results.

While an independent bid would be unlikely to succeed, Webb could still be a major influence on the general election. His home state of Virginia is one of only four to be decided by 5% or less in 2012, and is widely considered to be a battleground again in 2016. 

For more, read this statement from Jim Webb.

The other 4 declared Democratic candidates continue to see miniscule polling numbers. Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb, unhappy about the time afforded him to speak in last week's debate, has scheduled a news conference for 1PM ET today at the National Press Club. Webb is expected to announce that he is considering leaving the Democratic race and running for president as an independent.

While it is unlikely this would increase his near-term visibility, given the focus on the nomination process, Webb could eventually be influential as it relates to the swing state of Virginia, where he served as Senator from 2007 to 2013. Virginia was one of only 4 states to be decided by 5% or less in 2012.

This is not the first time news of an imminent announcement has come, so it remains to be seen if this time will be different.

* The hearing will be telecast live on CSPAN-3

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Our opinion (270toWin) continues to be that Biden will run. He has long wanted to be president; age makes 2016 his last real opportunity. Unlike his prior campaigns, he now has nearly 100% name recognition. In addition, there's no incumbent (from either party) to run against, which makes this a good year to run even if one has no chance, which is clearly not the situation the Vice President is in. Hillary Clinton will be tough competition for the nomination, but unless you are an incumbent, that would always be the case.  

If we're wrong, we're wrong, but running seems like the path of least resistance.

Republicans raised $77.4 million in Q3, per the Politico article. More than half of this was raised by Carson, Jeb Bush and Ted Cruz. Carson, Bush, Cruz and Rubio all had over $10 million cash on hand at the end of the reporting period. Most of the candidates that raised less than $3 million spent more during the quarter than they took in. As noted earlier, Trump is a bit of an outlier as he is primarily self-funding. Trump raised and spent roughly $4 million.

Democratic Fundraising

Democrats raised $59.1 million during the quarter, 95% of it to frontrunner Clinton and her closest challenger Sanders. Those two candidates had over $25 million cash on hand at the end of the quarter.

Vice president Joe Biden has qualified for the debate, but is not yet a declared candidate. A 6th podium is on-site should Biden decide to join the race and participate.

Looking at the Democratic polls, Clinton remains the strong frontrunner, although Sanders has provided a larger challenge than many expected when he entered the race. None of the remaining invited candidates has gained any traction of note with Democratic primary voters. The debate will provide the first real opportunity for these candidates to connect.

This is the first of six debates sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee, a limited schedule that has caused some controversy. The next two debates will be in the first two primary/caucus states. The first will be November 14 in Des Moines, followed by a December 19 event in Manchester, New Hampshire.

What the Candidates Need to Do

USA Today has a nice summary of what each candidate needs to accomplish for a successful evening.

Clinton: Reintroduce herself and her rationale for running/wanting to be president to reverse the torrent of negative publicity surrounding her in recent months

Sanders: Try to expand his appeal beyond core liberal base; appear electable

O'Malley: He's been more willing to go after Clinton than Sanders; needs to find an opportunity to do that on stage 

Webb: Highlight his centrist views as contrast to others on stage; highlight opposition to Iraq War in contrast to Clinton

Chafee: Highlight his broad political experience

Results were fairly similar across the three state for the Democratic candidates. In Ohio, Clinton's 40% was equal to Biden + Sanders. She outperformed that in Florida, while doing a bit more poorly in Pennsylvania. If Biden wasn't in the equation, Clinton would be just over 50% in all 3 states; Sanders about 25%

Quinnipiac also took a look ahead to the general election in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.