Election News

There hasn't been a great deal of early polling for a general election match-up between Rubio and Hillary Clinton; that link will let you track the race and also links to an interactive map that looks at polling + 2012 results in unpolled states.

While Clinton enters the 2016 race as a prohibitive favorite, it is worth noting that she was the presumed front-runner at this same time in 2007, polling about 35-40%, about 10% ahead of a not-yet-well-known Senator from Illinois. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani was seeing twice as much support as John McCain.

Looking ahead to November, 2016, there has been some polling on Clinton vs. a number of prospective Republican nominees. We're tracking those with a series of electoral maps*. 

*We are creating a non-Flash version of our interactive electoral maps to provide a much better experience for the growing percentage of 270toWin visitors viewing the site from a mobile device. You should start seeing this map in the next few weeks. 

Paul and Cruz have both been averaging about 10% in Republican primary polls, trailing but competitive with early polling frontrunners Scott Walker and Jeb Bush. Looking to the general election, should it be Paul vs. Hillary Clinton, early polling has Clinton with the advantage. However, when considering polled states + 2012 results for unpolled ones, this is the only match-up that doesn't currently show Clinton ahead in states totaling 270 electoral votes.

Florida: Former governor Jeb Bush leads with 24% of the vote with Senator Marco Rubio in 3rd at 12%. Wisconsin governor Scott Walker is in-between, with 15%. These results are similar to those seen in last week's Public Policy poll. Rubio is scheduled to announce his 2016 plans on April 13. 

Ohio: Senator John Kasich garnered 20% of the vote; the only candidate to crack double-digits. Kasich has gotten little support in other polling, but his popularity in this critical general election battleground could become important. No Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio.  

Pennsylvania: Walker was the only prospective candidate with double-digit support here, and the only one to finish in the top three in all three states polled. Former Senator Rick Santorum tied for second at 9%. Santorum has gotten little support elsewhere.

Quinnipiac also polled the Democratic field in these three states. Hillary Clinton's support ranged from 48% in Pennsylvania, to 54% in Ohio, to 65% in Florida. While Clinton is clearly ahead, this wide variation in support for the presumptive (if she runs) nominee might be something to monitor. 

• Jeb Bush leads Clinton by 45% to 42% in Florida. While within the margin of error, this is one of the stronger Republican showings vs. Clinton seen in 2016 competitive state polling thus far
• Rand Paul leads Clinton by 45% to 44% in Pennsylvania
• Scott Walker's recent strong performance in Republican primary polling is not yet carrying over to the general electorate. Walker trails Clinton by 5% to 11% across the three states
• Clinton is polling strongest overall in Ohio, leading by an average of 8.6% (vs. 4% to 5% in the other two states). A Republican has never won the presidency without carrying Ohio.

We've made a few updates to our polling-based HRC vs. GOP electoral maps.

Democratic Primary: Hillary Clinton received 58% of those responding, with Joe Biden at 14% and Elizabeth Warren at 10%. The email issue doesn't seem to be affecting Clinton much in her own party.

General Election: Clinton leads all Republicans in head-head match-ups, with Florida's Rubio and Bush coming closest, within the margin of error. Walker, who is performing well in Republican primary field surveys is not seeing that carry over yet; he trails by 8%. Democrats have won states totaling 242 electoral votes in the last 6 consecutive presidential elections. If that 'blue wall' should persist in 2016, Florida is a must-win state for the Republicans as its 29 electoral votes would put the Democratic nominee over the 270 threshold.

image from 270toWin iPad App

• My Maps: Added more user options for map interaction including a color rotation similar to that on the 270toWin website

• The States: Electoral vote count now changes as user scrolls through history. Also added electoral votes for 2020 (same as today) and an early projection for 2024

• The Library: A 2016 Projections directory is now available. It will be populated with pundit and other projections

For those that haven't looked at the app since the last election, here are some changes from the prior update, version 1.4, that launched last year:

• Technical: App rebuilt for iOS 7 including updated Retina graphics

• My Maps: Create candidate-specific 2016 match-ups; save maps to camera roll via Share button

• The States: Updated narrative, voting history and popular votes for 2012 election results

• The Library: Added 2012 Related directory for maps based on 2012 results

• The History: Added 2012 to the timeline

With the usual caveat that polling is of limited predictive value this far out: Cruz has been averaging just under 5% in recent national Republican primary polls, in a group of hopefuls that have gotten some support but are trailing leaders Scott Walker and Jeb Bush. Looking to the general election, should it be Cruz vs. Hillary Clinton, early polling has Clinton with the advantage.  

Democratic Primary: Hillary Clinton received 62% of those responding, with Joe Biden at 15% and Elizabeth Warren at 10%. Hillary is polling almost 60% in the 270toWin average, with Biden and Warren battling it out for a distant 2nd. 

General Election: Clinton leads by 11-16% over every prospective Republican opponent surveyed, with Rand Paul performing best. Clinton consistently came in at about 55%, each Republican within a couple points of 40%. This seems to indicate a pretty rigid adherence to party preference at this point. Whether and how much that changes as the Republicans become more well-known will go a long way to determining how competitive 2016 will be.