The 270toWin simulator has returned for 2016, currently featuring the most likely November match-up: Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump. The tool populates an electoral map in about 15 seconds, based on a probability set for each state.
The probabilities will be determined by polling, particularly as that becomes more frequent. For now, a combination of polling, 2012 actual and pundit projections are considered.
New for 2016: The 2016 simulator is no longer coded in Flash, so it will work on your mobile device. Results can now split Maine and Nebraska, as there is at least some possibility that one congressional district in each of those states may be competitive in November. Finally, the map can be populated randomly or more East-to-West, based on actual poll closing times.
Additional new features will be coming soon.
The way the site is structured, we can only have one simulation pairing, and so we've chosen to launch (rather than wait) with the most likely fall match-up. For the Bernie Sanders fans out there, we continue to maintain the Sanders vs. Trump electoral map.