Election News

Our results partner, Decision Desk HQ has called Utah's 4th congressional district for Ben McAdams. This is the 39th pickup for the Democratic Party. Only one race - Georgia's 7th district - remains uncalled.  Republican incumbent Rob Woodall is favored here; but the challenger Carolyn Bourdeaux has requested a recount.

Republican Will Hurd has won a 3rd term in the 23rd congressional district of Texas.  While, the vote remains very close, his Democratic challenger Gina Ortiz Jones conceded on Monday.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson conceded the Florida Senate race Sunday afternoon. Gov. Rick Scott prevailed after two rounds of recounts. Republicans have secured 52 Senate seats compared to 47 for Democrats, ensuring the party maintains control of the chamber. The Mississippi runoff election will decide the final seat.

Six of the 34 races completed resulted in a victory for the out-party. Republicans picked up four of those wins, Democrats two. Click the image below to see all the results; you can then click any of the state for vote totals from that race. We also have an interactive version of the 2018 actual results.

Democrat Stacey Abrams effectively conceded defeat Friday afternoon, acknowledging that Republican Brian Kemp will be Georgia's next governor.  All 36 gubernatorial elections have now been called by our results partner, Decision Desk HQ.

Prior to the election, Republicans held 33 of the 50 governorships, with 16 Democrats and 1 independent holding the remaining seats. Democrats flipped seven seats, winning Republican-held seats in Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada and Wisconsin. The lone GOP gain came in Alaska.

Click the image below to see the results for all 36 elections. We also have an interactive version of the 2018 actual results.

August, 2020: You can now game this out for the 2020 election with the House State View feature.  Try it here for the current consensus forecast.

July, 2019: Michigan Rep. Justin Amash resigned from the GOP to became an independent in July, 2019, breaking the tie in that state's delegation.  It is now 7-6-1, with Democrats in the majority. Across the 50 states, Republicans have the majority in 26, Democrats 23, with one tie.

Original Article: Although a handful of districts remain uncalled, we now know which party will be in the majority in each state's 2019 U.S. House delegation. Republicans will have the majority in 26 states, while Democrats will have the most members in 22.  Two states, Michigan and Pennsylvania will be tied.  The concentration of Democratic districts in a small number of states gives the GOP a structural advantage in this count. They will hold the lead despite a Democratic majority overall.

However, this marks a significant improvement for Democrats relative to the current House, in which the GOP has a partisan edge in 32 states to 17, with Maine the lone tie. Come January, Democrats will be in the majority in five additional delegations: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine and Virginia. 

Democrat Jared Golden has defeated incumbent Republican Bruce Poliquin in the closely-contested race for Maine's 2nd congressional district.  Golden prevailed via the state's ranked-choice voting process, which kicked in when none of the candidates received a majority of the initial vote in this four-person race.

Maine's largely rural 2nd district - the largest by area in the Eastern Time Zone - went for Donald Trump by 10 points in 2016. This earned the president an electoral vote in the state, which is one of only two that uses an allocation method other than winner take all.

The 2020 electoral battleground map starts out much broader than in any presidential contest since 1992, according to an analysis in the Axios AM Newsletter on November 15th, 2018. "To win re-election, President Trump must wage a two-front war: Not only does he have to defend Democratic-leaning Midwest states that sealed his victory in 2016, but he now needs to defend against clear Republican erosion in the South and Southwest."

Doug Sosnik, who did the analysis, says "Changing demographicsand Trump have blown up the electoral map that has dominated American politics since 1992."

An interactive version is below. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 election forecast.

Democrat Andy Kim will win in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district. The election was called Wednesday afternoon by our results partner Decision Desk HQ, as well as by the Associated Press. This is the 230th seat won by Democrats, a net gain of 35. Six races remain uncalled.

In our pre-election New Jersey House overview, we noted that "If Democrats have a particularly good night, 19 term Rep. Christopher Smith (NJ-4) may be the only Republican in the New Jersey House delegation in 2019."  With Kim's victory, that will indeed be the case. 

Democrat Josh Harder is the projected winner in California's 10th congressional district. He defeated four-term incumbent Republican Jeff Denham. This marks the 34th net gain for Democrats in the House midterm elections, giving them 229 seats.  Republicans currently have 199, with 7 seats remaining to be decided.

This is the fourth gain for Democrats in California, giving them a 43 to 8 margin in the state's 53-person House delegation. The 39th and 45th districts remain uncalled.  These are both GOP-held seats in the Los Angeles area.

The Associated Press projects Democrat Kyrsten Sinema to win the closely-contested Arizona Senate race.