Overview

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On this Page: U.S. Senate, Governor, U.S. Representative (18 congressional districts)

Results Expected: After 8:00 PM Eastern Time

U.S. Senate

Sen. Bob Casey (D) is favored to win a 3rd term. 2022: Sen. Pat Toomey (R, 2nd term).

Governor

Incumbent Gov. Tom Wolf (D) is favored to win a 2nd term.

U.S. House

18 Congressional Districts: 12* Republicans | 6 Democrats


As a result of court-ordering redistricting, Pennsylvania voters will cast their ballots across new district lines. Overall, the new map is more favorable to Democrats, a situation likely to be amplified in this election due to the overall political environment. To evaluate districts likely to change parties and other competitive races, all new districts were assigned based on overlap with the current district. The one exception is Conor Lamb (D) who is running in District 17, a much more hospitable one for Democrats than his redrawn district.

Likely to Change Parties: 5th, 6th, 14th, 17th
The Philadelphia-area 5th and 6th districts are much more Democratic than their nominal GOP-held predecessors. Likewise, the 14th in the southwestern corner of the state is quite conservative. Democrat Conor Lamb, who won a special election in the former 18th district - and would have run in the 14th were it competitive - is instead running in the nearby 17th district. This has created the only incumbent vs. incumbent race created due to redistricting. Lamb is likely to prevail.

Highly Competitive: 1st, 7th
These two redrawn districts, north of Philadelphia, represent the best opportunities for additional Democratic pick-ups. Democrats are favored in the 7th.

Competitive: 10th, 16th
Polling in both of these districts has been within the margin of error. However, they are not drawn as favorably for Democrats as the 1st and 7th. Donald Trump won the 10th by 9%, the 16th by 20%.

Others to Watch: 8th
This district in the state's northeastern corner is unlikely to change hands, although the redrawn boundaries gave Trump his largest margin of victory (9.5%) of any district with a Democratic 'incumbent'. 

Two special elections are being held to fill vacancies during the lame-duck session. These elections will be contested along pre-redistricting lines.