Election News

A loss in any of the 28 seats above obviously means Democrats need to pick one up elsewhere. The only three realistic options are Tennessee, Texas and the Mississippi special election.  The other four Republican-held seats are not competitive. 

At this point, North Dakota looks to be the most at-risk seat for Democrats. Recent polling there has turned in favor of Republican Kevin Cramer. Polling has also looked better for the GOP in Texas and Tennessee; these are both now rated Likely Republican in the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast.

Totally Unopposed: There are 16 incumbents that have the ballot all to themselves. One of them, Michael Doyle (PA-18) is running unopposed in a district partially modified in redistricting. A 17th seat on this list is currently held Michael Capuano (MA-7), who was defeated by Ayanna Pressley in his bid for renomination. 

Same Party Opposition: California and Washington hold top-two primaries, where all candidates, regardless of party, appear on a single ballot. The two largest vote-getters advance to the general election. In five districts, the two moving on are both from the same party. In 2016, Nanette Barragan won her first term vs. a fellow Democrat; this explains the narrow margin of victory in a district Hillary Clinton won by nearly 71%.

3rd Party Opposition: These 20 incumbents have one or more opponents on the ballot - all are 3rd party or independent candidates. None are expected to pose a major challenge. 

In the above tables, the 2016 margin of victory for both the House race and the presidential election (within that congressional district) is displayed. As you might expect, given the lack of competition, these districts lean heavily toward one party. An asterisk indicates the incumbent was unopposed. 

More than 130,000 simulations have been run since we launched this back on September 22nd. Below the map, you can view the results of the most recent 5,000. Currently, Democrats are winning just over 75% of the time. Individual simulation results will vary widely, as there remains a wide distribution of plausible outcomes.

Democrats need to gain two seats for control.  The party has a more plausible path to achieving that than earlier this year, as the GOP-held seats in Texas and Tennessee have become much more competitive than expected. However, it is still an uphill climb, with Democrats defending 26 of the 35 seats up this year. Five of those states (Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia) were won by Donald Trump by 18 points or more in 2016. Even if Democrats manage to hold all their seats, they still need to win two GOP seats, most likely some combination of Arizona, Nevada, Tennessee and/or Texas. The special election in Mississippi is a longer-shot Democratic opportunity.  What's interesting about this race is that it will likely go to a November 27th runoff.  Should Election Day end with Democrats holding a 50-49 lead in seats, we won't know who will control the Senate until this runoff is held.

Here's a partial Table View for the Consensus Battleground Map (as of the most recent update on Sept. 20):

Initially, table view is available for maps that have been saved.  To see table view for an in-progress map you are creating, click 'Share Map'.  

The simulator is primarily derived from the data-driven 2018 U.S. House Midterms Election Forecast from The Crosstab by G. Elliott Morris. However, it also takes into consideration the consensus projection of a number of long-time expert forecasters. This has the effect of limiting extremely unlikely outcomes, as there is an extra hurdle districts considered 'safe' by all the experts must overcome before they will change parties in a given simulation. However, the net effect of this 'governor' across many thousands of simulations is relatively small.

We're hoping to add a feature in the days ahead that will list all the district flipped when a simulation is run. 

* The simulation occurs before the map is populated, so this choice doesn't affect the outcome

Minnesota is notable due to the number of competitive races it has this year. Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton is not seeking a 3rd term. While the races leans Democratic, it is no sure thing. Likewise, in Minnesota's special election for U.S. Senate, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is favored, but polling for this race has been much closer than for the 'regular' Senate election held by fellow Democrat Amy Klobuchar.

The congressional races are particularly interesting. Three of the state's 8 districts (MN-1, MN-2 and MN-8) are currently considered toss-ups, with the GOP-held 3rd hovering between toss-up and leans Democratic. MN-7 is considered likely to vote with 14-term incumbent Democrat Collin Peterson, but Donald Trump won here by 31% in 2016, his largest margin of victory in any district that elected a Democrat to Congress.  

Minnesota's early voting continues through the day before the midterms. We're a bit conflicted by this. Early voting is a great way to get a higher percentage of registered voters to cast a ballot. That said, people voting well in advance of Election Day do so without complete information. This shrinks the pool of voters left to be persuaded to consider another candidate and/or react to developments in the campaign. 

The change further improves the Democratic outlook for this previously safe Republican stronghold between Rochester and Buffalo. Donald Trump won here by nearly 25% in 2016, his largest margin of victory in any of the state's 27 congressional districts. Kyle Kondik, of Sabato's Crystal Ball, indicates the race will move from Likely to Leans Republican.

Sheesh. Assuming this happens we'll downgrade NY-27 from Likely R to Leans R - same rating as CA-50, another R seat with a legally damaged R incumbent running https://t.co/oIL2jDuyX9

— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) September 17, 2018

The Democratic nominee is Nate McMurray who is the Town Supervisor of Grand Island.

Not sure where to vote? Look up your polling place.

New York Democratic Primary for Governor

Incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo is seeking a 3rd term. He faces a challenge from actress and activist Cynthia Nixon. While the race has generated quite a bit of publicity, the polls indicate that Cuomo should prevail rather easily. Assuming Cuomo moves on, he should have little trouble winning reelection. The Republican nominee will be Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro. (We are pleased to see that perennial candidate Jimmy McMillan, of the Rent is Too Damn High party, is also on the November ballot).

New York Democratic Primary for Attorney General

In a race that could impact President Trump down the road, four candidates are vying to become the state's next attorney general. A recent poll showed no clear frontrunner. The 2018 race opened up when Attorney General Eric Schneiderman resigned in May after abuse allegations became public. The acting AG, Barbara Underwood, is not running. The Republican nominee will be Keith Wofford.

Not sure where to vote? Look up your polling place.

Rhode Island Gubernatorial Primaries

Democratic Gina Raimondo is attempting to win a 2nd term. In the 2014 gubernatorial election, she defeated Republican nominee Allan Fung by about 4.5%. A 2018 general election rematch is a distinct possibility, although both must first get past primary challengers. The centrist Raimondo is facing a more liberal opponent, former Secretary of State Matt Brown.

Rhode Island Senate Primaries

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse is heavily favored to win a 3rd term in November. 

Rhode Island House Primaries

The state has two congressional districts, both held by Democrats. Both incumbents are expected to win reelection in November.